贵金属日报 2026-01-21 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.98 %，报 1074.20 元/克，沪银跌 0.56 %，报 23027.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4769.10 美元/盎司，COMEX银报94.46 美元/盎司；美国10年期国债收益率报4.3%，美元指数报98.55 ； 昨日，波兰央行宣布了 150 吨的黄金购买计划，意在令其黄金总储备量上升至 700 吨。显示了 主权国家对于美元信用的担忧。同时，美国对于格陵兰岛的"接管行动"令欧洲国家与美国的 关系紧张，并有部分报道称欧盟将"抛售美债进行应对"。这显示了特朗普政府无序外交政策 对于美元信用的冲击，显著利好作为美债替代品的黄金。 【策略观点】 从中期来看，美联储后续降息的幅度，尤其是新联储主席在五月份上任以后的宽松幅度将较目 前而言大幅提升，特朗普政府对于鲍威尔的刑事调查以及基于宽松货币政策的联储主席任命均 会对联储独立性形成不可逆的影响，且印度白银在一季度仍具备较大的 ...

来源：上海证券报 格上基金研究员毕梦姌认为，银价近期的持续上涨，一是由于白银正从货币金属转向战略工业金属，成 为新能源与数字化转型的核心材料。其超强导电性在光伏电池、AI数据中心、新能源汽车中不可或 缺，叠加全球主要经济体将白银纳入关键矿产清单，其战略价值备受瞩目。二是全球白银矿山产量自 2015年起增长停滞，供给与需求的不平衡使得白银价格迅速上升。三是美联储2026年降息周期开启，美 元走弱降低了白银持有成本，叠加全球流动性宽松，推动投资需求活跃。 毕梦姌补充道，同时，地缘政治冲突多点升级，避险资金涌入贵金属市场，而白银市场规模小于黄金， 弹性优势使其涨幅远超黄金。 投资火热的同时注意风险 "中长期而言，只要全球能源转型趋势不改、白银供需缺口未修复，价格基础就不会动摇。但短期而 言，银价高位震荡加剧，需警惕回调风险。当前白银价格已快速兑现预期，上海期货交易所多次上调交 易保证金与持仓限额，供需博弈将加剧波动，还需警惕全球主流叙事收敛带来的价格回撤风险。"毕梦 姌提示道。 对于国投白银LOF的投资，毕梦姌认为，一是要注意溢价收敛下的压力释放。高溢价状态下，获利资金 选择落袋为安，导致场内价格向基金净值回归，会 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged dramatically, breaking the $92 per ounce mark for the first time, with a daily increase of nearly 6% and an annual increase exceeding 28% [1][3] - Gold prices have also reached a historical high of $4641.853 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 7% [1][3] - The total market capitalization of silver has surpassed $5 trillion, making it the second-largest asset globally, only behind gold [1][5] Group 2 - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with silver prices increasing by over 170% in 2025, despite a significant drop at year-end [3][7] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a record demand of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, driven by strong investment demand [5][9] - The rising silver prices are beginning to suppress industrial demand, with some companies considering alternatives to silver due to its high cost [11][15] Group 3 - Market expectations for gold prices are optimistic, with forecasts suggesting an average price of $5200 per ounce in 2026, driven by various factors including geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [7][13] - The silver market is experiencing a divergence in price and volume, with significant net outflows from major silver ETFs despite rising prices [15][17] - The valuation logic in financial markets is undergoing a transformation, as silver's market cap surpasses that of major tech companies, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [17]

（央视财经《正点财经》）据美联社19日报道，美联储主席鲍威尔计划于本月21日出席美国最高法院举行 的一场口头辩论，核心议题将围绕总统特朗普是否有权解除美联储理事库克的职务展开。 去年8月，特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除美联储理事库克的职务。这一做法被美国媒体称为"史 无前例"。库克称，特朗普无权解除她的职务，将继续履职。双方就此诉诸法律程序。当年10月，美国最高 法院发布一项指令，允许美联储理事库克暂时留任，直至2026年1月法院就总统特朗普是否有合法理由将其 解职举行口头辩论。 如果库克最终被解职，特朗普可以提名自己心仪的美联储理事继任人选。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：董健雄 报道称，作为美联储的掌舵人，美联储主席鲍威尔此次决定亲自出席美国最高法院的口头辩论，这在过去 十分罕见。就在本月早些时候，鲍威尔证实，他本人正在接受美国司法部的刑事调查，涉及美联储办公楼 数十亿美元的翻新工程及其向国会所作证词。鲍威尔强调，所谓的调查"只是借口"，真正的目的是施压美 联储快速降息。美国媒体的报道认为，在这一背景下，鲍威尔现身美国最高法院，可能释放出他进一步硬 刚特朗普政府的信号。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of investment copper bars is gaining attention as copper prices reach new highs, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Copper Bars - Investment copper bars with a purity of 999.9 are being introduced, primarily in 1000g specifications, priced between 180 to 280 yuan [1]. - The popularity of investment copper bars is evident on social media and e-commerce platforms, with products like "wealth copper bars" priced at 149.88 yuan for 1000g [3]. Group 2: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices are projected to rise significantly, with forecasts indicating a potential increase to 13,000 USD/ton in early 2026, driven by strong demand in energy transition and AI sectors [8]. - The price of copper is expected to experience a 34.34% increase in 2025, with the year-end price projected at 99,180 yuan/ton [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current surge in copper prices is attributed to tight global supply, trade flow restructuring due to U.S. tariffs, and increased demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [4]. - Analysts predict a refined copper shortage of approximately 330,000 tons in 2026, with significant price implications [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Most investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, with some predicting a peak of 15,000 USD/ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. - However, some analysts, like Goldman Sachs, caution that the rapid price increase may suppress market demand, forecasting a potential decline to 11,200 USD/ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 [9].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are driven by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and potential tariff increases by the U.S. government, maintaining a bullish outlook despite facing resistance near an upward trendline [1][10]. Market Performance - On January 19, gold opened at $4,615.41 per ounce, reached a low of $4,615.08, and peaked at $4,689.23, closing at $4,671.91, marking a gain of $77.84 or 1.69% from the previous close of $4,594.07 [1][10]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $95.16, indicating strong market activity [1][10]. Technical Analysis - The current price is near the upward trendline resistance, suggesting a potential for short-term pullbacks, but support from various short-term moving averages could provide re-entry opportunities for bullish positions [1][10]. - The monthly chart indicates a strong upward movement, with the potential for gold prices to reach between $5,500 and $6,000 if the bullish momentum continues [5][14]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have been supported by the 5-week moving average, with expectations for further upward movement towards the $4,700 mark or higher [7][16]. Fundamental Factors - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair, Bowman, warned of a weakening job market, suggesting readiness for further interest rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold demand [5][14]. - Ongoing geopolitical concerns and renewed trade tensions are expected to sustain high demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][14]. Trading Strategy - For January 20, the gold market is expected to face some resistance, with key support levels at $4,650 and $4,630/$4,580, while resistance is noted at $4,700 and $4,725 [8][17]. - The strategy remains focused on low-risk bullish positions, with short positions as a secondary option [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising gold prices and favorable market conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The China Securities Index for the gold industry (931238) has seen a strong increase of 2.07%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Silver Nonferrous and Hunan Silver, both up by 10.03% [1] - The current spot price of gold has risen by 1% to reach a historical high of $4716.14 per ounce, supported by stable inflation data and strong employment indicators in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Index for the gold industry includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold sector in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.58% of the total index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with London spot gold closing at $4,599 per ounce (up 2.0% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 1,033 yuan per gram (up 3.0% week-on-week) [1][6] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to a potential influx of safe-haven funds into gold. Notably, the dispute over Greenland's ownership and tensions surrounding Iran are contributing factors [1][6] - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of goods imported from the U.S. in response to proposed U.S. tariffs on imports from several European countries [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. December CPI was lower than expected at 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, which has increased market speculation for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny, with ongoing investigations into Chairman Powell, while major central bank leaders and Wall Street figures have expressed support for him [2][7] - The outlook suggests that if a dovish chairman is appointed, the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate, which could be favorable for gold [2][7] Group 3: Future Signals for Gold ETF - Key signals to watch for the upcoming week regarding the gold ETF include U.S. Q3 GDP and PCE data, as well as changes in geopolitical situations [3][8] Group 4: Comparison of Gold Prices - A comparison of gold priced in RMB and international gold prices is noted, with data sourced from Wind and Huaan Fund as of January 18, 2026 [4][10]

美联储降息预期强化黄金吸引力 市场普遍预期2026年美联储将实施3-4次降息，2025年已累计完成75个基点降息。降息将压低美元和美 债收益率，降低黄金持有机会成本，叠加美国国债高企导致美元信用松动，黄金保值属性进一步凸显， 推动资金从美元资产转向黄金市场。 特朗普宣布2月1日起对8个反对其格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家加征10%关税，6月起税率升至25%。欧盟拟 对930亿美元美国商品加征关税反制，贸易战担忧急剧升温，避险资金大量涌入黄金市场。1月19日现货 黄金一度涨超2%，突破4690美元/盎司，刷新历史新高。 全球央行购金筑牢金价底部 全球央行购金潮持续延续，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年全球央行购金总量超1200吨。各国 通过战略性购金分散美元资产依赖，从基本面大量吸收市场流通黄金，为金价提供坚实托底，大幅削弱 短期回调空间。 据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1053.46元/克，上涨1.35%。 国际黄金价格报4671.8美元/盎司，上涨1.66%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 特朗普关税升级引爆避险需求 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Market Performance - Emerging markets continued to rise, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 6.8% during the week [9][12] - In the developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 17.2%, while the Nasdaq Index was the weakest, declining by 0.3% [9] - Among emerging markets, the Hang Seng Index performed best with a 4.0% increase, while the Indian Sensex30 was the worst performer, down by 1.7% [9] Trading Sentiment - Trading sentiment in the Chinese stock market increased significantly, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing substantial volume growth, while US stocks saw a slight increase in volume [24] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks fell to 12.9%, below the three-year average of 12%, indicating a high level of investor sentiment [24][27] - North American investment sentiment remains at historical highs, with the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index decreasing to 96% [24][27] Fund Flows - The new Federal Reserve chairperson's selection remains uncertain, impacting market expectations for interest rate cuts [56] - As of January 16, market expectations for the Fed to cut rates in 2026 decreased slightly to 1.8 times [56] - Global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with significant inflows into mainland China, the US, South Korea, India, and Europe [64] Earnings Expectations - US earnings expectations were revised upward, particularly in the financial sector, with the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast increased from +10.3% to +10.4% [68] - In contrast, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was downgraded from -1.8% to -1.9%, with the utilities sector seeing the largest upward revision [68][69] - European earnings expectations remained stable, while Japanese earnings expectations were revised downward from +31.0% to +29.4% [69]