India's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged as U.S. tariff policy continued to weigh on the South Asian economy's outlook. ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, aimed at maintaining liquidity during the holiday season and addressing potential tightening in the financial market [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will inject 1.1 trillion yuan through a three-month reverse repo operation, which includes an additional 300 billion yuan to the existing 800 billion yuan of three-month reverse repos maturing in October [2][3]. - There is an expectation of another six-month reverse repo operation in October, as 500 billion yuan of six-month reverse repos are also set to mature [2][3]. - The PBOC's actions are intended to stabilize liquidity and support government bond issuance while encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [2][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The upcoming maturity of 1.95 trillion yuan in reverse repos around October 9-10 may create pressure on liquidity, but the first week of October is likely to see a return to a more relaxed liquidity state due to fiscal spending and reduced government bond payments [3][5]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [3][4]. - There is speculation that the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter, influenced by economic growth dynamics and the need for more robust support for the real estate market [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, which have enhanced the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [1] - It was noted that social financing costs are at historically low levels, contributing to a stable operation of the financial market [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The analysis of domestic and international economic conditions indicates that China's economy is progressing steadily, with improved social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development [1] - However, challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels remain, necessitating the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting proposed strengthening monetary policy regulation with increased foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, aligning policy implementation with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - It emphasized maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply matches economic growth [2] - The need to strengthen the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-based interest rate formation transmission mechanism was also highlighted [2]

会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导 机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏 观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为我国经济运行稳中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新 成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆 周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定 增长和物价处于合理水平。 本报北京9月30日电(记者徐佩玉)中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会日前召开。会议认 为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节，综合运 用多种货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In October, 800 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are set to mature [3] - After the 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, there will be a net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos [3] - The PBOC is expected to continue injecting medium-term liquidity through reverse repos for the fifth consecutive month [3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Government Actions - The government is expected to issue a large volume of bonds in October, and the National Development and Reform Commission has announced the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments [4] - The strong performance of the stock market and the "migration" of household deposits in October may tighten liquidity, prompting the PBOC to inject medium-term liquidity [4] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's reverse repo operations are aimed at stabilizing liquidity ahead of the holiday season [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The PBOC may continue to use reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity, but the scale of net liquidity injection may decrease from the previous monthly level of 600 billion yuan [5] - There is speculation that the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a larger scale of long-term liquidity injection [5] - Overall, the PBOC's policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with a focus on fiscal strength and monetary easing [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index from 97.8 to 94.2 in September indicates a potential risk of contraction in consumer spending, a critical pillar of the U.S. economy [2] Economic Indicators - Despite considerable uncertainty, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, primarily supported by consumer spending growth [2] - A noticeable decline in consumer spending could extinguish the main engine driving the U.S. economy [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting, with expectations of further cuts in October [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks add uncertainty to future monetary policy [2] - The Fed is likely to adopt a gradual and modest rate-cutting strategy, which may provide limited support to the current U.S. economy [2]

Core Insights - The Hungarian Forint has recently reached its highest point in two years, with expectations for its appreciation against the Euro to continue through the remainder of 2025, potentially alleviating inflation expectations [1][4] Currency Exchange Rate Forecast - MBH Bank predicts that the average exchange rate of the Hungarian Forint against the Euro will be 401 in 2025, with an end-of-year rate of 397.5. For 2026, the average exchange rate is expected to reach 400.3 [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Hungarian economy is currently supported by the service, retail, and hospitality sectors, while adverse weather has impacted agriculture and weak demand has affected industry. GDP growth is forecasted at 0.8% for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026, driven by external demand and new investments, potentially reaching 3% [5] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.5% for 2025, decreasing to 3.9% in 2026. The core inflation rate fell to 3.9% in August, the lowest in four years. The benchmark interest rate has been maintained at 6.5% for over a year, with no changes expected before the end of 2025. However, anticipated rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may provide room for easing in Hungary, with projections of a decline to 6.0% by the end of 2026 and 5.0% by 2027 [6] Fiscal Deficit and Labor Market Trends - The government deficit is expected to be 4.6% of GDP in 2025, an improvement from 4.9% the previous year. Employment is projected to continue growing, with an average unemployment rate of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Despite the Forint's strength supporting disinflation, the government plans to gradually lift "price guarantee caps" in the second half of 2026, which may temporarily boost inflation [7]

华尔街长期以来一直与纽约联储保持着双向交流。纽约联储是美国金融中心的核心金融机构。双方的专 家们会共同探讨问题、测试想法，尤其是关于市场如何对央行政策作出反应方面的问题。 但近年来，这一局面已有所改变，如今由洛根执掌达拉斯联储。在此之后，她经常就市场运作、美联储 的资产负债表以及金融状况发表看法——这些都是市场参与者所关注的核心话题。 这一反应凸显出洛根在华尔街人眼中的重要性：在2022年出任达拉斯联储主席之前，她曾负责纽约联储 的资产负债表管理工作。在美联储高层官员中，她被视为最顶尖的市场专家之一。她还被视为有望接替 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的人选，因为威廉姆斯将于2028年达到法定退休年龄。此外，特朗普政府也把她 视为美联储理事会成员职位的潜在人选。 一些联储主席是学术型经济学家，另一些则拥有商业背景，或者像洛根那样拥有市场方面的背景。过去 两年担任达拉斯联储主席的两人也都拥有丰富的市场背景，但他们的影响力都不如前者那么大。 道明证券美国利率策略主管Gennadiy Goldberg说道："洛根在美联储资产负债表政策和前端利率方面堪 称权威专家，这就是为什么我们非常关注她的言论。" 上周，一位美联储官员的提议 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones 30 is currently experiencing sideways trading with a lack of significant movement, indicating a period of consolidation as traders await upcoming job numbers [1] - A potential support level for the Dow Jones 30 is identified at 46,000, with further support expected at the 50-day EMA and the 45,000 level, which is anticipated to act as a strong floor in the market [2] - The S&P 500 is also showing quiet trading at the 6,660 level, with expectations of sideways movement, but a preference for buying dips rather than shorting the index [3] Future Projections - The S&P 500 is projected to reach the 6,800 level in the coming months, driven by long-term upward trends despite current indecisiveness in the market [3] - The market is heavily influenced by monetary policy questions, which are expected to impact trading decisions and market direction [4] - The current market is supported by an uptrend line and the 50-day EMA, indicating resilience even if there are short-term drops [4]

美联储副主席Philip Jefferson周二警告，美联储面临劳动力市场疲软和通胀压力上升的双重风险，使货 币政策前景变得复杂。鉴于白宫推出的政策调整范围极广，对经济前景的看法高度不确定，不过随着政 策敲定，部分不确定性将随之消减。我认为就业风险偏向下行，通胀风险偏向上行，因此，我们两方面 的职责都面临压力。预计就业和通胀压力最终都会缓解。今年失业率可能会略有上升，明年再回落。我 预计今年过后通胀下降趋势将恢复，通胀率未来几年将回归2%的目标。 来源：滚动播报 ...