保尔森表示，她仍然认为货币政策处于一定程度上偏紧的状态，不过近期的宽松将为就业市场提供一定 缓冲。 保尔森说："通过在过去三次会议上合计降息75个基点，我们已经在一定程度上为防止劳动力市场进一 步恶化买了一份保险。" 保尔森表示，在评估关税和人工智能等最新发展将如何影响经济时，美联储的信誉非常重要。如果经济 因为由人工智能推动的生产率繁荣而实现高增长，那么所需的政策应对将不同于高通胀同时成为风险的 情形。 她说："劳动力市场目前状况尚可，但下行风险在上升。" 美联储官员本周连续第三次降息，并维持其在2026年仅再降息一次的前景。保尔森并非本次会议的有投 票权委员，但她将在2026年参与投票。 本次的利率决定是自2019年以来首次出现三票异议，而且来自两个方向，突显出委员会内部存在严重分 歧。决策者还在声明措辞上作了细微调整，暗示对何时可能再次降息的不确定性有所增加。 来源：环球市场播报 费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森周五表示，她预计明年通胀将会降温，但同时提醒劳动力市场可能 进一步走弱的风险。 保尔森在特拉华州商会的活动上表示："总体而言，相比通胀上行风险，我仍然对劳动力市场疲弱更为 担忧。这部分是因为我认 ...

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 刘佳 北京报道 2026年货币政策权威方向，由中央经济工作会议正式定调。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为全年宏观调 控划定核心方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大 逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物 价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策 传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水 平上的基本稳定。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，明确传递出宏观政策将 更加积极有力，以推动宏观经济实现"质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。 值得关注的是，关于总量型货币政策工具，会议将去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具"，这一表述变化意味着降准降息仍是明年货币政策操作的可选项，同时强调灵活性与实效性，既 ...

"在数据'静默'之前，有一些令人担忧的读数，"古尔斯比说。"幸运的是，我们在接下来的几个月里将会 发现关于这些风险的重要信息，希望这能让我们有信心重返2%的通胀路径。" 周五发表讲话的还有费城联储主席保尔森，其立场较为鸽派，称"相对于通胀上行风险，她仍然更担心 劳动力市场的疲软"。"这部分是因为我认为，随着明年的推进，通胀有相当大的机会回落，"她在特拉 华州的一次活动上表示。"劳动力市场尚可，但下行风险正在升高。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定 关税对通胀的影响是否只是暂时的。 古尔斯比在周五的一份声明中表示，"鉴于通胀率已经连续四年半高于我们的目标，而且几个月来在通 胀问题上的进展一直停滞不前，加上我们最近在辖区内接触的几乎所有商界人士和消费者都将物价列为 主要担忧，我觉得更审慎的做法是等待更多信息。" 这位芝加哥联储主席本周投下的反对票是他自2023年加入美联储以来的首次异议，这使他与堪萨斯城联 储主席施密德站在了同一战线，后者曾在10月份的前一次降息中投了反对票，并对本周的决定再次提出 异议。 施密德也在周五的另一份声明中也概述了他连续第二次 ...

会议强调，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，动态评估完善货币政策框架，丰富货币政策工具箱，加强货 币政策执行和传导。统筹做好金融"五篇大文章"。健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险 防范处置机制，强化重点领域的宏观审慎管理，完善系统重要性金融机构监管的基本框架。建设规范、 透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的金融市场体系。建设安全高效的金融基础设施体系。完善中央银行履职 的法律基础。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）据人民银行官网消息，12月12日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持 召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，落实全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实 举措。中国人民银行各党委成员出席会议。 ...

GDP数据公布后，英镑兑美元小幅下跌0.1%至1.337美元。交易员维持对下周降息25个基点的押注，概率维持在90%。 英国10月GDP意外收缩0.1%，加之通胀预期从两年高位回落，为英国央行下周重启降息周期提供有力支撑。疲弱的增长数据及缓和的价格压力正 推动市场将降息概率推升至90%。 英国国家统计局周五公布的数据显示，10月GDP环比下滑0.1%，低于路透调查经济学家预期的0.1%增长。这是英国经济过去七个月中实现增长后 再度萎缩，分析人士和英国统计局将这一放缓归因于人们对Rachel Reeves增税预算案引发的不确定性。 与此同时，英国央行最新调查显示，家庭对未来12个月通胀预期从8月份两年高位3.6%降至3.5%，五年期通胀预期也下降0.1个百分点至3.7%。这 一缓解为货币政策委员会提供了进一步宽松的空间。 通胀预期回落提振降息前景 英国央行密切跟踪的前瞻性通胀预期调查释放积极信号。调查显示，家庭对未来通胀的预期小幅回落，这被视为支持央行进一步降息的重要依 据。 Pantheon Macroeconomics首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，预期回落将让货币政策委员会感到宽慰，预计随着总 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The financial data in 2025 shows that the growth rates of social financing and M2 are higher than the expected GDP and CPI growth rates, indicating effective financial support for the real - economy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1]. - The focus on quantity targets in the central economic work conference is being gradually淡化, which is an important measure for building a scientific and sound monetary policy system [2]. - Investors are advised to "look down, look comprehensively, and understand clearly" when analyzing financial aggregate data [3]. Section Summaries Financial Data Analysis - **Policy Background**: The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level targets. The expected GDP growth in 2025 is about 5% and CPI growth is about 2%. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social financing and M2 were 8.5% and 8% respectively, higher than the above targets and the nominal GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy and the moderately loose monetary policy [1]. - **Change in Policy Focus**: Similar statements about quantity targets in previous central economic work conferences did not appear in the 2025 conference news release, indicating a gradual淡化 of the focus on quantity targets [2]. Suggestions for Analyzing Financial Aggregate Data - **Look Down**: In the process of economic structural transformation and with the reduction of real - economy financing demand, the decline in the growth rate of financial aggregate indicators is normal, and there is no need to overly worry [3]. - **Look Comprehensively**: While RMB loan increment is an important indicator, banks support the real economy in multiple ways, and non - bank financial institutions also serve the real economy. It is advisable to use more comprehensive indicators such as social financing and broad money [3]. - **Understand Clearly**: When analyzing financial data, one should not only focus on the apparent readings but also consider the underlying logic, such as base effects and seasonal effects, and fully restore the impacts of local government debt resolution and small - and - medium - sized financial institution risk mitigation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expresses greater concern over the labor market's potential deterioration than inflation risks, anticipating a cooling of inflation next year [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Paulson describes the labor market as "bent but not broken," indicating a significant increase in downside risks, with broader hiring activities remaining weak [2]. - Recent rate cuts totaling 75 basis points have provided some insurance against further deterioration in the labor market [2]. - The current federal funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75% is still considered restrictive, which, along with previous tightening effects, should help bring inflation back to the 2% target [1][3]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Paulson is relatively optimistic about inflation, suggesting a significant likelihood of a decline next year, primarily due to the expected waning impact of tariffs on goods prices [3]. - She emphasizes that the current interest rate levels and the cumulative effects of previous tightening policies should assist in achieving the inflation target [3]. Group 3: Decision-Making and Data Dependency - Paulson will gain voting rights on the FOMC in 2026 and anticipates more information by the end of January, which will clarify inflation and employment outlooks [4]. - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a balance between employment market risks and elevated inflation levels [4]. - The meeting saw three dissenting votes, highlighting deep divisions within the committee regarding policy direction [4]. Group 4: Economic Factors and Credibility - Paulson stresses the importance of the Fed's credibility when assessing the economic impacts of factors like tariffs and artificial intelligence [5]. - She notes that if the economy experiences high growth driven by AI, the policy response would differ from scenarios where high inflation risks coexist [5].

【美联储施密德：希望保持货币政策适度限制性】智通财经12月12日电，美联储施密德表示，劳动力市 场正在降温，但仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头。希望保持货币政策适度限制性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on macroeconomic management and financial stability for the upcoming year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The PBOC acknowledged the achievements made over the past year despite external pressures and internal challenges, highlighting the effectiveness of the central leadership in navigating economic complexities [3]. - The meeting underscored the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy to ensure stable economic growth and high-quality development, aligning with the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and optimizing structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks, maintaining a balance between economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial stability [5]. - The PBOC aims to strengthen financial risk monitoring and establish mechanisms for providing liquidity to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The PBOC is committed to advancing high-level financial openness while ensuring national financial security, participating in global financial governance reforms, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [6]. - The development of a comprehensive cross-border payment system for the Renminbi and the gradual rollout of digital currency are also key focuses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the acceleration of financial supply-side structural reforms to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlights the importance of using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions flexibly and efficiently [2] - It stresses maintaining ample liquidity and promoting low financing costs for the economy [2] - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for the real economy, particularly in key areas like expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [2] Group 2: Financial Stability - The meeting calls for the prevention and resolution of financial risks in key areas to maintain financial stability [2] - It emphasizes the need to improve the central banking system and build a strong central bank [2] - The central bank is tasked with ensuring the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2] Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - There is a focus on optimizing the use of structural monetary policy tools and enhancing coordination with fiscal policy [2] - The goal is to incentivize and guide financial institutions to support key sectors effectively [2]