Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term is偏弱, the medium - term is震荡, and the intraday is震荡偏弱, with a view of观望 due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday are all强势, with a view of长线看强 because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, gold prices showed high - level volatility, and Shanghai gold faced resistance at the 960 level [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Since late November, the upward momentum of gold prices mainly comes from the continuous rise in expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the decline of the US dollar index. However, short - term market pricing of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations is relatively sufficient, and the recovery of market risk appetite puts pressure on gold prices. The decline of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - copper ratio reflects the recovery of risk appetite [3]. - **Recommendation**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and keep an eye on the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, and the price of LME copper reached over 11,000 US dollars/ton, both hitting record highs [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The sharp rise is driven by supply contraction, macro - economic expectations, and financial capital. The root cause is the "mine shortage" upstream. Many major global copper mines have significantly reduced production this year due to accidents and shutdowns, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Since late November, the expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut has created a macro - economic easing trading atmosphere and strengthened the financial attributes of copper. The price difference between COMEX and LME has led traders to transport a large amount of global inventory to the US, increasing the expectation of spot inventory shortage in non - US regions. The market has a strong consensus on a bullish outlook, and funds have flowed in significantly [4]. - **Recommendation**: Take a long - term bullish view and pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [4].

回顾11月，全球市场在中美贸易会晤预期升温、美联储降息预期反复、AI泡沫担忧加剧等多重扰动下 震荡加剧。 这些信号，让不少朋友开始疑惑：当前市场是在酝酿风险，还是在积蓄动能？ 今天，局长就带大家拆解这些"矛盾"背后的逻辑，并聊聊如何在震荡中保持定力。 一、市场为何总要"蹲下"震荡？ 市场并非总是一路上扬，"蹲下"震荡实属常态，是消化浮筹、积蓄新动能的过程。 回顾历史，无论是2014年还是2019年，在大的趋势行情启动前，市场都经历过类似的"中场休息"。 2014年7月至11月，沪指在2000-2200点区间横盘近三个月。期间经济数据低迷与改革预期交织，直至11 月21日央行降息为市场注入强心针，开启了一轮波澜壮阔的牛市。 2019年初，市场在中美贸易摩擦与资本市场改革预期中震荡两个月，最终在政策支持与外部缓和下走出 震荡，迎来科技主线崛起。 当前，上证指数在关键点位反复博弈，可视为四中全会后"政策真空期"的蓄势。许多投资者感觉"热点 轮动比翻书还快"，这恰恰是震荡市的典型特征——缺乏清晰单一的主线，资金在各板块间试探。从历 史经验看，这种震荡往往在为下一次风格选择做准备。 但需注意，当前经济修复路径与产业格局 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 多头氛围浓 铝价较强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，宏观面美国11月ADP创两年半来最大降 幅，显示劳动力市场疲软。11月美国制造业数据萎 缩，凸显企经济挑战，加上美联储潜在领导层变动， 市场对美联储鸽派预期不断升温。同时非美货币强 势，美元持续遭遇抛压，提振金属市场。基本面电解 铝供应端基本稳定，消费端铝价快速大幅冲高限制 部分消费，铝加工周度开工率略有下调0.4%，不过中 长期市场对新能源及储能领域消费依旧预期较好。 周度电解铝库存较上周持稳于59.6万吨，铝棒库存 12.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. The market sentiment is boosted by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, but there is an expectation of looser supply, weakening cost support, good but weakening terminal consumption, and continuous seasonal inventory accumulation in the domestic market [8][9][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2601 to RU2605, with prices ranging from 14,910 to 15,475 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a significant overall decline. As of the close on December 5, 2025, the main contract closed at 15,065 yuan/ton, down 380 points or 2.46% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,050 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [20]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton as of December 5, 2025, down 60 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded compared to the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both significantly declined compared to the previous week as of December 5, 2025 [29]. Important Market Information - US economic data: In November, the "small non - farm" employment in the US reached the largest decline in two and a half years, the initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased, the ISM manufacturing PMI declined, the ISM services PMI rose, and there were significant changes in employment and lay - off data [30][31]. - Global economic forecasts: The OECD expects global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, while the UNCTAD expects the global economic growth to slow down to 2.6% in 2025 [31][32]. - Chinese economic data: In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly, non - manufacturing PMI declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined. There were also changes in the real estate market, consumer goods, and the automotive market [33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 1.071 million tons, a 3.45% increase from the previous month. The output of Thailand and China decreased slightly, while that of Malaysia, India, and Vietnam increased slightly [42]. - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 782,000 tons, a 12.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative output was 7.387 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [45][48]. - As of October 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,300 tons, a 12.26% month - on - month decrease [51]. Demand - side Situation - As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.92%, up 1.73% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.5%, up 0.17% from the previous week [54]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's automobile monthly output was 3.3587 million vehicles, a 12.09% year - on - year and 2.53% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 3.3221 million vehicles, an 8.82% year - on - year and 2.97% month - on - month increase [58][61]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's heavy - truck monthly sales were 106,199 vehicles, a 60.02% year - on - year and 0.58% month - on - month increase [66]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 97.951 million pieces, a 2.5% year - on - year decrease; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, an 8.11% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE was 45,530 tons, an increase of 4,130 tons from the previous week. - As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5%, and that of light - colored rubber increased by 1.3%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 481,600 tons, a 2.71% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 0.69%, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.07% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are still in the peak supply season. With the weakening of weather disturbances in Vietnam and Thailand, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase. The domestic production areas will enter the non - production season, and the supply elasticity will weaken, with relatively firm raw material rubber prices and cost support for rubber. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased by 17.2% year - on - year [83]. - Demand: The operating rates of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall downstream demand increment was limited, and enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, which could not strongly support the upstream rubber prices. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales in November increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first 10 months increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather turns cold, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [84][85]. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory increased slightly last week, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to rise, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84][85]. Viewpoints and Operation Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. - Operation strategies: For single - side trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse spread opportunity; for options, temporarily wait and see [10][88][89].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国PCE数据巩固12月降息预期，金价震荡；美国三大股指小幅收涨， 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨3.89个基 点报4.137%；美元指数跌0.08%报98.98，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.0691； COMEX黄金期货跌0.36%报4227.7美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货961.04，现货955.5，基差-5.54，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91299千克，增加429千克；偏空 6、预期：今日关注中国11月进出口、欧元区12月投资 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are leading market fluctuations, with a significant rise in market anticipation for a December rate cut following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 [1] - The A-share market's recent rebound over the past two weeks is partially attributed to these expectations, although the upcoming Fed announcement will shift market focus to domestic economic conditions and policy expectations [1] - Last week, the market experienced back-and-forth movements, contending around the 60-day moving average, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below this average while the Shenzhen Component Index managed to close above it [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume for both markets last week was approximately 1.68 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [1] - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in upstream resources, military industry, and telecommunications sectors, with large-cap blue-chip stocks leading the gains while technology stocks showed some divergence [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index underwent a rapid adjustment in mid-November but found support above the early October low, gradually stabilizing and rebounding, indicating that the repair process may not be over yet as there are still gaps to fill above [1]

基本面驱动有限 铂钯总体对金银震荡跟随 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 228/210/172 181/181/181 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 交易、套利数据追踪 7 第三章 基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 基本面驱动有限，铂金随黄金冲高回落；钯金低幅震荡跟随 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：本周，美国宏观数据集中发布，呈现通胀压力仍在、劳动力市场走弱表现。关键数据上，9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，大体 符合预期，尽管物价涨幅整体较为平缓，但特朗普政府对进口商品大规模加征关税的举措，已推高了美国消费者的终端售价。11月ADP就业 报告显示私营部门就业人数出现两年半以来最大降幅，劳动力市场显现压力。特朗普暗示哈塞特可能成为下一任美联储主席，哈塞特同时在市 场释放较强的鸽派信号，市场总体对美联储降息预期走强进行交易，美元指数走弱，为贵 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rebound with reduced trading volume, supported by improved funding conditions and effective domestic fundamental pricing [1] - The recent improvement in TMT and upstream resource sectors indicates potential investment opportunities, particularly in AI chains, price increase chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure [1] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities and fluctuations before any significant changes in domestic demand, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued [1][2] Group 2 - The overall market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for a bull market to continue into next year [2] - Geopolitical risks are easing, and the renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may trigger a spring rally in the A-share market [2] - The AI sector is anticipated to continue its growth, with a focus on critical areas such as energy storage and power, as well as applications driven by AI interaction and ecosystem development [2]