换资前言： 一个人如果没有了目标和信念，哪怕有再多人给你指引，也是徒劳。问问自己心中所想做这个投资的目 的是什么？达到了吗？还差多远？需要怎样的条件才可以早日完成自己的目标。我很高兴，你能来了 解，我愿意帮助那些相信我的人，信任，就好比把小孩儿扔向天空，她依然可以笑着，因为她相信你一 定可以接住，信任，也是所有合作的起源，如果抱着怀疑的态度合作，那么这样的合作是不长久的，盈 利绝对不是一单的输赢，赚钱绝对不是一次的博弈，当你愿意放下过去的思维。哪怕，你闭着眼睛，晟 富也绝对不会让你迷路！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(5月14日)亚市尾盘，现货黄金维持日内跌势，目前金价位于3235美元/盎司附近，日内重挫近20美 元。黄金价格逆转周三早些时候从周低点反弹的势头，由于投资者对美国可能与一些主要贸易伙伴达成 贸易协议持乐观态度，卖家试图重新控制金价。受逢低买盘推动，金价周二反弹，而当天公布的美国通 胀数据比预期疲软，也帮助金价上涨。不过，贸易乐观情绪限制金价的反弹力度。现货黄金周二收盘上 涨0.46%，报3249.90美元/盎司。在最近的美英贸易协定和对中国关税暂停90天之后， ...

自美国总统特朗普的关税攻势加速以来，全球股指在过山车般的六周时间里收复了失地。 一些策略师迅速做出反应。高盛的David Kostin将标普500指数的未来12个月预测从6200点上调至6500 点，意味着在关税税率降低、经济增长前景更强劲以及衰退风险减小的情况下，美股还有11%的上涨空 间。野村控股策略师将中国股票评级上调至"战术性增持"。 特朗普重塑全球贸易环境的愿望已在全球市场播下了不确定性。MSCI全球股票指数在4月2日特朗普宣 布关税后两天下跌8.6%，美银美林美债选择权波动率（MOVE指数）和股票VIX指数等波动率指标飙 升。 鉴于这种走势的逆转以及市场重返风险资产，避险资产回落，瑞士法郎和日元周一贬值至4月初以来的 水平。然而，黄金仅轻微削弱了自4月2日以来的出色表现，并将年内涨幅收窄至20%左右。 自4月2日以来，许多避险资产一直坚挺 中美之间达成贸易协议提振了全球数十个股指，并帮助包括标普500指数在内的一些指数超过了4月2日 提议征收关税前的水平。香港恒生指数较上月低点上涨17%，而中国沪深300指数上涨超过8%。包括英 国富时100指数和法国CAC 40指数在内的一些欧洲指数接近收复自关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of cross-border ETFs has led to significant price increases across various funds, driven by positive market sentiment following favorable inflation data and a temporary trade truce between the US and China [1][5][10]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Southern Fund's Saudi ETF, Invesco's Nasdaq Tech ETF, and Invesco's S&P Consumer ETF saw increases of 5.57%, 3.64%, and 3.4% respectively, with latest premium/discount rates at 8.99%, 3.72%, and 29.09% [1][3]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Harvest Fund increased by 3.19% and 2.99% respectively, reflecting a broader rise in oil prices [1][3]. - The Nasdaq index rose for the second consecutive day, with Franklin Templeton's Nasdaq ETF and Cathay Fund's Nasdaq ETF increasing by 2.7% and 2.63% respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Market Context - Global stock markets continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices gaining 0.72% and 1.61% respectively, attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data and improved investor sentiment following the US-China trade truce [5][6]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses for the year, now up 0.1%, after a significant drop earlier due to escalating trade tensions [5][6]. - The recent signing of a $142 billion arms deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, along with Nvidia's commitment to supply advanced AI chips, has further bolstered market optimism [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [10]. - Despite the favorable inflation data, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 4.481%, indicating a complex market reaction [10]. - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming month may see fluctuations in the S&P 500 index between 5500 and 5800 points, supported by corporate buybacks and trade agreements [10].

【资讯导读】 ·中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议 ·美财长贝森特认为与欧盟快速达成贸易协议可能性低 ·欧洲央行管委：可能于夏季再次降息 ·美国4月CPI同比上涨2.3% 连续三个月低于预期 【市场资讯】 ·中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议，规模为1900亿元人民币/1570亿巴西雷亚尔，协议有效期 五年，经双方同意可以展期。 ·美国财长贝森特认为与欧盟快速达成贸易协议可能性低，指出欧盟的"集体行动问题"影响谈判进度。 相较之下，他对与亚洲伙伴如日本和印尼的谈判进展表示乐观。 ·美元指数下跌0.82%报100.9827，欧元兑美元上涨0.88%报1.1185，英镑兑美元上涨0.98%报1.3305，澳 元兑美元上涨1.53%报0.6470，美元兑日元下跌0.66%报147.4910，美元兑加元下跌0.27%报1.3936，美元 兑瑞郎下跌0.72%报0.8395。 【日内重点关注】 ·14:00 德国4月CPI月率终值 ·日本央行副行长内田真一表示，尽管美国关税政策带来不确定性，但预计薪资和物价将上涨，表明日 本央行坚持加息立场。 ·美国4月CPI同比上涨2.3%，连续三个月低于预期，创2021年2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a recent surge in the US stock market, caution is advised as not all favorable conditions for sustained growth have been met [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that for a more durable rise in the US stock market, four conditions need to be fulfilled, of which only two have progressed: optimism around a trade agreement with China and stabilization in earnings revisions [2] - The S&P 500 index has recovered nearly half of its losses since February, attributed to the US government's engagement in trade negotiations with other countries [2][3] Group 2 - The current earnings season has seen a record number of mentions of "tariffs" by US companies, reflecting concerns over tariff uncertainties, with approximately 30 companies having canceled or suspended their earnings forecasts [3] - Following a significant rise, the S&P 500 index has surpassed previous resistance levels around 5700 points, returning to the range of 5700 - 6100 points prior to what was termed "liberation day" on April 2 [3] - For the US stock market to achieve more significant gains, further progress in US-China trade relations and improved earnings performance from listed companies are essential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing stock has experienced a significant increase following the resumption of U.S. aircraft deliveries to China, driven by a favorable trade deal that reduced tariffs and eased operational pressures [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Boeing stock reached $204.86, marking a 14-month high after China resumed accepting U.S. aircraft deliveries [1][6]. - Year-to-date, Boeing shares are up 15.62%, with a notable increase of 10.84% in the last week of trading [1][8]. Group 2: Trade Deal Impact - The recent U.S.-China trade deal has effectively reduced U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% [5]. - The trade negotiations, which took place in Switzerland, have removed most reciprocal tariffs while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff on the American side [4][5]. Group 3: Market Context - Boeing faced challenges due to uncertainties stemming from President Trump's trade war, which impacted deliveries to Chinese airlines [2][3]. - Despite these challenges, the stock has shown resilience and positive momentum since the beginning of the year [1][6].

荷兰银行上调人民币汇率预测，因贸易协议改善经济前景。 ...

欧元兑美元涨0.26%，现报1.1116。美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟 存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈判。"我认为美国和欧洲可能会慢一点，"贝森特在利雅得举行的沙 特-美国投资论坛上被问及关税谈判进展时表示。"我个人认为，欧洲可能存在集体行动问题；比如意大 利想要的东西与法国不同。但我相信，最终我们会达成令人满意的结果，"他继续说道。贝森特对与亚 洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观。他表示，美国已经与日本进行了"非常富有成效的讨论"，并称赞了与印 尼"非常积极"的沟通。他还提到了与韩国和泰国的谈判。他表示："在我这边，进展非常顺利"。 ...

美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈 判。"我认为美国和欧洲可能会慢一点，"贝森特在利雅得举行的沙特-美国投资论坛上被问及关税谈判 进展时表示。"我个人认为，欧洲可能存在集体行动问题；比如意大利想要的东西与法国不同。但我相 信，最终我们会达成令人满意的结果，"他继续说道。(新浪财经) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - After the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged. The persistently low TC price also indicates that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 12, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,950 yuan/ton and closed at 78,260 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,080 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the sentiment of cargo holders to sell was divided. Some enterprises started trading at par at the beginning of the session, dragging down the transaction price. During the mainstream trading period, the price of mainstream flat copper gradually dropped from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Non-registered goods were at a discount of around 100 yuan/ton. As the copper price rose during the day, downstream buyers pressured prices significantly, with transactions at discounts ranging from 140 to 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that China and the US each cancelled 91% of tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk sentiment and a strengthening of copper prices [3] - **Domestic**: In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3] - **Mineral End**: Barrick Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the single-letter stock code "B". First Quantum Minerals remains cautiously optimistic about the future of its Cobre Panamá copper mine, and the Panamanian government is evaluating how to restart the mine while safeguarding national interests [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode copper production enterprises with a total effective cathode copper production capacity of 12.065 million tons were tracked, a 7.25% increase from the previous year, accounting for 83.84% of the country's total effective production capacity. In April, the output of copper smelting sample enterprises increased significantly, exceeding 1.05 million tons. It is estimated that the cathode copper output in May will increase slightly to 1.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [5] - **Consumption**: Currently, the copper price is at a high level and shows a volatile trend. Downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see. The consumption situation in the market has weakened. Last week, the overall market procurement was mainly for rigid demand at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 190,750 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7]