钛媒体App 12月12日消息，央行2025年11月金融数据报告出炉。11月末，M2余额336.99万亿元，同比 增长8%，较上月下降0.2个百分点。M1余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%，较上月下降1.3个百分点。 M0同比增长10.6%。2025年前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿 元；2024年全年社会融资规模增量累计为32.26万亿元。前十一个月人民币存款增加24.73万亿元；人民 币贷款增加15.36万亿元。金融总量合理增长，充分体现适度宽松的货币政策。（央行网站） | 央行• 2025年11月金融统计数据(部分) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 实际 | 前值 | | M0货币供应年率 | 10.6% | 10.6% | | M1货币供应年率 | 4.9%↓ | 6.2% | | M2货币供应年率 | 8%1 | 8.2% | | 1-11月 | | | | 名称 实际 | | | | 新增人民币存款 24.73万亿元 | | | | 新增人民币贷款 15.36万亿元 | | | | 社会融资规模增量 | | 33.3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the social financing scale in China has shown significant growth, with a cumulative increase of 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5% at the end of November, maintaining a high growth level, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy environment conducive to high-quality economic development [1][4] - Government bond net financing and direct financing have been key drivers of social financing growth, with government bond net financing reaching 13.15 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of the social financing increment [4] Group 2 - The increase in loans has been significant, with a total of 15.36 trillion yuan in new RMB loans in the first eleven months, and the loan balance growth rate at 6.4% at the end of November [7] - The structure of loans shows that inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing have grown at rates higher than the overall loan growth, indicating increased support for key sectors [7] - The average interest rate for new loans remained at historical low levels, with corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, which is about 30 basis points lower than the same period last year [8] Group 3 - The article notes that the recent macroeconomic policies have effectively promoted a reasonable rebound in prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.7% year-on-year in November [10] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a potential stabilization in price trends [10] - Experts suggest that the long-term conditions for economic growth remain strong, and the monetary and financial conditions are relatively loose, supporting a return of prices to reasonable levels [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that China's banking system liquidity remains abundant, which is crucial for stabilizing the macroeconomic landscape and ensuring the healthy operation of financial markets [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a comprehensive set of liquidity management tools to effectively respond to short-term fluctuations caused by fiscal policies and government bond issuances, maintaining overall stability in the money market [1][2] - Recent innovations in liquidity management tools, such as including government bond trading in the monetary policy toolkit and creating two new monetary policy tools to support the capital market, are expected to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management in China [1] Group 2 - Internationally, central banks utilize various tools for liquidity management, which can be categorized into four levels: intraday liquidity support, daily liquidity supply, temporary liquidity supply, and structural liquidity supply [2] - China's liquidity tool system aligns with the mainstream frameworks in Europe and the U.S., reflecting both international practices and domestic market realities [3] - The management logic of China's liquidity tools is consistent with international practices, focusing on banking institutions as counterparties and using high liquidity, low-risk assets like government bonds for collateral [3]

我国流动性工具体系已较为完整，基本覆盖了国际通行的流动性工具范围。 12月12日，央行宣布，中国人民银行将于15日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元 买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 由于12月有4000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，这意味着本月6个月期买断式逆回购实现加量续作，净 操作量为2000亿元。 早前12月5日，央行开展3个月期10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，实现3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作。综 合来看，12月两个期限品种的买断式逆回购合计延续加量续作，连续第7个月向市场注入中期流动性。 "总体看，我国流动性工具体系已较为完整，基本覆盖了国际通行的流动性工具范围。"上述专家介绍。 另一方面，工具的管理逻辑也与国际主流做法一致。比如，在对手方选择上，主要以银行类金融机构为 主。在抵押品管理方面，以国债、政策性金融债等高流动性、低风险资产为主。 据该专家介绍，这些工具大体可分为四个层次：一是日内的流动性支持，通常是免费提供，主要解决金 融机构日内的临时性资金需求，确保支付系统的平稳运行，期限为日内或隔夜。 二是日常的流动性供给，主要是通过常规的公开市场操作调控短期利率，比 ...

最新发布。 12月12日，中国人民银行发布的最新金融统计数据报告显示，经初步统计，2025年前11个月社会融资（社融）规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多增3.99万 亿元。11月末，社融存量的同比增速为8.5%，与上月持平；广义货币（M2）增速8%，环比下降0.2个百分点；反映资金活化程度的狭义货币（M1）增速为4.9%， 环比下降1.3个百分点。 从金融总量表现看，11月末社会融资规模存量、M2增速均保持不低于8%的较高增速水平。"这充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜 的金融总量环境。"业内专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。 11月末，社融规模增量保持较快增长，政府债券净融资、企业债券、股权融资等继续发挥支撑作用；信贷投放"提质换挡"，普惠小微贷款、制造业中长期贷款、科 技贷款继续较快增长，增速持续高于全部贷款增速。 只看贷款增长情况越来越难以完整反映金融支持实体经济的成效。前述业内专家表示，社会融资成本低位运行，说明实体经济融资需求被合理满足；重点领域信贷 投放占比提升，说明金融资源供给与 ...

Core Insights - The latest financial statistics from the central bank indicate a moderately loose monetary policy environment, supporting high-quality economic development [2][3] Monetary Supply - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.6% year-on-year [1] Social Financing - The total social financing stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - From January to November, the incremental social financing was 33.39 trillion yuan, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The total new government debt this year reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, with significant contributions from various types of government bonds [3] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, with 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds fully issued, and 2 trillion yuan allocated for refinancing existing hidden debts [3] - Government bond financing is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan this year, accounting for 40% of the incremental social financing [3] Credit Growth and Quality - By the end of November, the RMB loan balance was 271 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [7] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points from the previous year [7] - Inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.88 trillion yuan, growing by 11.4%, while medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector increased by 7.7% [7] Structural Changes in Financing - The shift in credit structure reflects the transition of economic growth drivers from traditional sectors to emerging fields such as technology innovation and green development [7][8] - The central bank has been enhancing its monetary policy tools to better align financial products and services with the needs of economic transformation [8] - Banks are optimizing their internal governance to effectively transmit central bank policy incentives, leading to a reasonable growth in credit volume and continuous improvement in quality [8]

近年来，人民银行通过各种工具的配合使用，有效应对财政税收、政府债券发行等短期波动，货币市场 运行整体平稳，短端货币市场利率围绕政策利率中枢小幅波动，银行体系流动性保持充裕。 专家表示，近期我国在工具创新上力度比较大，比如将国债买卖纳入货币政策工具箱，创设两项支持资 本市场的货币政策工具等，这些都将进一步提升我国流动性管理的效果。 我国流动性工具体系与欧美主流框架事实上是一致的。上述专家分析，一方面，工具的种类可与国际主 流的四大分类相对应。比如，"自动质押融资"为支付系统日内资金错配提供支持，逆回购、中期借贷便 利（MLF）、国债买卖等保障日常的流动性供给，常备借贷便利（SLF）可向有需要的银行提供临时的 流动性支持，各类再贷款对应结构性的流动性供给。总体看，我国流动性工具体系已较为完整，基本覆 盖了国际通行的流动性工具范围。 另一方面，工具的管理逻辑也与国际主流做法一致。比如，在对手方选择上，主要以银行类金融机构为 主。在抵押品管理方面，以国债、政策性金融债等高流动性、低风险资产为主。在定价方面，常备借贷 便利（SLF）利率稍高于政策利率，既考虑了市场需求，也注意防范对央行资金形成过度依赖。这些工 具相互配 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD currency pair has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar, reaching around 1.3750 [1] - The Federal Reserve signaled plans to lower the federal funds rate to 3.4% by 2026, while the Bank of Canada indicated that current interest rates should be maintained in the short term [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) remains weak, hovering near a seven-week low of 98.13, as market expectations suggest more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than indicated in the latest dot plot [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is performing strongly against most major currencies, except for currencies from Australasia, due to the low likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [2] - The Bank of Canada reaffirmed that current interest rates are sufficient to keep inflation near the target of 2%, as long as economic and inflation trends meet expectations [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD pair has dropped to 1.3760, remaining below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.3921, indicating a bearish short-term trend [5] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28, indicating an oversold condition, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3772 serves as short-term support [5] - If the pair closes below the 1.3772 support level, it may open up further declines towards the 78.6% retracement level at 1.3671 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is counterbalancing market risk appetite, with yen bulls currently in a stronger position despite some weakness in the yen due to optimistic market sentiment and concerns over Japan's fiscal situation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics - The yen is under pressure but supported by hawkish expectations from the BoJ, limiting the bearish momentum [1]. - Traders are pricing in the possibility of the BoJ raising interest rates as early as next week, contrasting with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which has kept the dollar under pressure [1][2]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's large-scale spending plan is exacerbating concerns over Japan's public finances, contributing to a cautious approach among traders regarding aggressive short positions on the yen [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Expectations - The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) indicates that Japan's inflation remains above historical averages, supporting the BoJ's hawkish stance and the likelihood of policy normalization [2]. - The upcoming BoJ policy meeting on December 18 is highly anticipated, with traders likely to avoid aggressive shorting of the yen ahead of this event [2]. - The Fed's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points and its future outlook has created a weak dollar environment, further impacting USD/JPY dynamics [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The immediate resistance for USD/JPY is just above the 156.00 level, with potential for a new round of short covering if this level is breached [6]. - A drop below the psychological level of 155.00 could accelerate declines in USD/JPY, with key support levels at 154.35 and 154.00 [6].

核心观点： 12 月 10 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率区间下调至 3.5%~3.75%，降息 25bps，并重启短债扩表，整体表态比市场预期更偏鸽。会前，市场对此 次降息的预期已达到 90%以上，但普遍担忧这次降息是本轮最后一次。但 是，美联储会议声明和记者问答比预期更温和，市场对后续降息的信心提 振。会议声明（Statement）的增量信息不多，唯一变化在于对失业率的 描述由"截止 8 月有所上行但保持低位"变为"截至 9 月有所上行"，体 现劳动力市场弱化趋势更为显著。记者会上，鲍威尔也明确提出，自 4 月 以来非农就业平均每月增加 4 万，但其中夸大的成分或有 6 万，相当于每 月负增 2 万人，指向对就业市场下行风险的担忧。与放缓的现状相对的 是，12 月的经济预期摘要（SEP）上调了对于未来的 GDP 预期，并下调 了通胀预期和失业率预期，显示 2026 年美国经济预期边际好转，AI 经济 和财政支出的拉动预期对美国经济形成额外支撑。此外，在经济前景不确 定性较强的情况下，FOMC 委员会内部分歧继续加深，本次投票共三人反 对，其中 Miran 支持降息 50bps，Schmid 和 Goolsb ...