根据再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据（挑战者报告），美国七月份的裁员计划飙升 至一个高位，远超疫情以来的月平均水平。其中，科技公司在裁员方面处于领先地位。 本月，美国公司宣布的裁员人数达到62075人，而去年同期约为25900人。该报告于周四发布，显示2025 年的裁员人数是过去十年中七月份的第二高，仅次于2020年新冠疫情最严重时期的裁员数量。 报告指出，计划裁员的原因包括人工智能和关税。此外，经济前景的不确定性导致零售业出现裁员和店 铺关闭。 近几周，主要科技公司公布了裁员计划。英特尔公司宣布计划裁员15%，而微软公司也启动了今年的第 二轮裁员，将影响9000名员工。整个科技行业都在增加对人工智能的投入，试图在其他方面削减成本。 计划中的裁员不一定会立即转化为实际的失业。截至六月，美国整体就业市场保持稳定，失业率维持在 4.1%的低位。然而，根据经济学家的预测中值，预计政府将于本周五发布的七月就业报告将显示，随 着就业增长放缓，失业率将小幅上升至4.2%。 挑战者报告还显示，汽车制造商的裁员计划有所增加，这主要与关税有关。此外，联邦预算削减正在对 依赖政府业务的 ...

Core Insights - The June core PCE price index year-on-year recorded 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.70% and revised from the previous value of 2.70% [1] - The overall PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both higher than market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5% respectively [1] - Personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, bringing the year-on-year rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February [1] Inflation Data - Inflation data for June was driven by rising prices of goods, including home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, indicating that import tariffs have been partially passed on to consumers [2] - A key indicator of service sector inflation, excluding energy and housing, rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month [3] - The June inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's interest rate timeline [3] Labor Market and Consumer Spending - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 218,000, with continuing claims at 1.95 million, unchanged from the previous week [4] - Despite a stable unemployment rate, many workers report longer job search times and difficulty finding opportunities, indicating underlying weakness in the labor market [4] - The economic data reflects a tug-of-war, with inflation pressures on one side and weak consumer spending on the other, leading to a split among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 on sales of $1.5 billion, with an operating margin of 11% [5][20] - Free cash flow reached $78 million, a significant increase from the previous year, representing a cash conversion of 108% [6][23] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.3%, about 170 basis points better than planned due to favorable discrete items [21][22] - EBITDA was $182 million, up 12.2% of sales [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerials segment sales were $607 million, with an operating margin improvement of 500 basis points sequentially, but about 200 basis points lower than expected due to customer mix [23][24] - Materials Processing (MP) sales were $434 million, down 9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 12.7%, showing a sequential improvement from 10% in Q1 [24][25] - Environmental Solutions (ES) generated $430 million in sales, with a 12.9% year-over-year growth and a 19.1% operating margin, reflecting strong performance [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Waste and recycling now represents approximately 30% of global revenue, characterized by low cyclicality and steady growth [14] - Utilities account for about 10% of revenue, with growth driven by the need to expand the power grid [14] - General construction has decreased to less than one-third of total markets, with strength in large projects and infrastructure, while local private projects remain soft [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging synergies across its portfolio, particularly following the ESG acquisition, and is ahead of initial synergy targets [16][19] - The company plans to maintain its full-year EPS outlook of $4.7 to $5.1, expecting stronger performance in Environmental Solutions in the second half [6][30] - The company is exploring digital revenue streams, particularly through the Third Eye platform, which enhances operational efficiency and safety [17][120] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic factors, including high interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties, continue to impact capital decisions [13][15] - The company expects a significant increase in free cash flow compared to 2024, anticipating between $300 million and $350 million in 2025 [31] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of its diversified end markets, particularly in waste and recycling, utilities, and infrastructure [14][15] Other Important Information - The company ended the second quarter with $1.2 billion in liquidity and plans to deleverage in the second half of the year [27] - A new $150 million share buyback program was authorized, with $33 million remaining from the previous authorization [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong ES margins? - Management attributed the strong ES margins to operational efficiencies, better execution in utilities, and favorable customer and product mix, although the favorable mix is not expected to recur in the second half [39][40][42] Question: What drove the $20 million adjustment in EBITDA guidance? - The adjustment was driven by stronger performance in ES, offset by unfavorable mix in Aerials and higher tariffs [47][49] Question: How do you view the margin outlook for Aerials? - Management expects Aerials' operating margin to be mid-single digits in Q3, driven by tariffs and unfavorable customer mix [55][56] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the cost profile? - The company does not expect material impact from steel inflation due to hedging and local sourcing, but tariffs are included in the $0.50 guidance for the year [106][108] Question: How is the company addressing customer caution in the market? - Management noted that larger customers are maintaining their cadence for negotiations, while smaller customers remain cautious due to economic uncertainty [64][94]

Core Points - The unexpected trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces tariffs to 15%, but does not achieve the goal of eliminating the US trade deficit with Japan [1][2] - The agreement is estimated to reduce Japan's trade surplus with the US by approximately 70%, but significant differences in trade agreement details remain [1][4] - The agreement is projected to lead to a 0.55% decline in Japan's actual GDP, with a 50% probability of recession by the end of 2026 [8] Summary by Sections Tariff Agreement - The US-Japan trade agreement sets tariffs at 15%, which is seen as a major concession by Japan, given its initial demands for a complete removal of tariffs [2][3] - The agreement is expected to reduce Japan's exports to the US by approximately 2.2 trillion yen [7] Trade Surplus Impact - The agreement will reduce Japan's trade surplus with the US by 6.2 trillion yen, which is about 70% of the projected 8.6 trillion yen surplus in 2024 [5][4] - If certain factors are considered, the reduction in trade surplus could be as low as 4.8 trillion yen, or 56% of the projected surplus [5] Future Trade Relations - The Trump administration may impose additional measures on Japan, including higher tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [8][6] - Japan's commitment to invest 5500 billion yen in the US is seen as a target rather than a guaranteed amount, with actual investments to be determined by Japanese companies [3][9] Discrepancies in Agreement Interpretation - There are discrepancies between the US and Japan regarding the agreement's content, particularly concerning Japan's commitment to additional defense equipment purchases [9][10] - The White House's statements about the agreement may not accurately reflect the terms agreed upon by both countries [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of U.S. stock futures following the positive earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta, indicating a return of volatility in the market [1][3] - Microsoft shares rose by 9% in pre-market trading, approaching a market capitalization of $4 trillion, while Meta's shares surged by 11.13%, resulting in a combined market value increase of $537.6 billion for these two companies [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has experienced 25 consecutive trading days with price fluctuations not exceeding 1%, reflecting a period of low volatility prior to the recent earnings announcements [1] Group 2 - The U.S. June PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the core PCE index rising by 2.8%, both figures exceeding market expectations [3] - The implementation of "Trump tariffs" is set to begin, with significant tariff rates of 35% and 30% on goods from Canada and Mexico, respectively, and a 25% tariff on Indian goods, potentially increasing inflationary pressures in the U.S. [4] - Ford has warned that its second-quarter earnings were impacted by $800 million due to tariffs, and the company has raised its full-year revenue impact estimate from tariffs to $3 billion [8] Group 3 - Moderna announced a 10% workforce reduction in response to declining vaccine sales, indicating financial pressures within the company [9] - Eli Lilly's long-term trial results for Mounjaro showed an 8% reduction in cardiovascular risks compared to Trulicity, but the market reaction was lukewarm, with shares initially dropping over 5% [10] - Anheuser-Busch InBev's stock fell over 10% in pre-market trading due to second-quarter sales declining more than expected, reflecting challenges in the beverage industry [11]

金十数据7月31日讯，多个投行分析师认为，美联储启动新一轮宽松周期只是几个月的问题。丹斯克银 行美国宏观分析师Antti Ilvonen称，由于贸易加权平均关税税率似乎接近20%，成本上升将继续对利润 率和家庭实际购买力造成压力。这将抑制新招聘，并在下半年给消费带来进一步压力，最终促使美联储 在9月份会议上恢复降息。富达国际高级全球宏观策略师Max Stainton也表示，关税对经济增长的冲击可 能大于预期，这种风险也在加大。贝伦贝格银行美国经济学家Atakan Bakiska称，在对2021-2022年的通 胀飙升做出误判，并且"行动太迟"未能及时提高利率之后，美联储如今在面对另一场供应冲击（关税） 时又犹豫不决了。 投行：关税可能促使美联储降息 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that artificial intelligence and tariffs are increasingly becoming significant factors contributing to layoffs in the United States [1] Group 1: Employment Trends - The report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicates a rising trend in layoffs attributed to technological advancements, particularly artificial intelligence [1] - Tariffs are also cited as a growing reason for job cuts, reflecting the impact of trade policies on employment [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - Companies are facing challenges in adapting to the rapid changes brought by AI, leading to workforce reductions as they restructure to remain competitive [1] - The influence of tariffs on layoffs suggests that industries reliant on imports may be particularly vulnerable to job losses due to increased costs [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a technical rebound during Asian trading on Thursday, recovering from a significant drop the previous day, and successfully stabilized above the 100-day moving average [1][3] - Prior to this rebound, gold prices had fallen sharply to approximately $3,270, reaching a one-month low due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) turned bearish, indicating that momentum favored sellers, as gold prices dipped below $3,300 per ounce and hit a three-week low [3] Group 2 - In the context of trade negotiations, Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports, criticizing India's purchases of Russian energy and weapons [2] - Economists expressed concerns that the last-minute push for trade agreements could lead to greater economic costs for the countries involved, as they rush to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported constructive discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and macroeconomic policies, emphasizing the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation [2]

当地时间30日，德国选择党联合领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔到访匈牙利并与匈牙利总理欧尔班会见。她在接 受播客节目采访时表示，欧盟与美国达成的贸易协议对美国总统特朗普有利，对欧盟并无益处，特朗 普"彻底欺骗"了欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧盟，该协议并没有反映欧洲人民的意愿，反而证明了欧盟 的软弱。艾丽丝·魏德尔表示，欧洲需要支付15%的关税，但零关税才是正确的选择。 德国选择党领导人：美欧贸易协议证明了欧盟的软弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee is in the negative range, and the tight supply of copper ore remains the main contradiction, so the cost - support logic for copper prices still exists. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow down slightly. The downstream processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. The social inventory is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows slightly, demand is temporarily weak but the expectation is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,626 dollars/ton, down 72.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest increased by 4,504 hands to 176,193 hands, while the futures' top 20 open interest decreased by 5,333 hands to 8,781 hands. The LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 25 tons to 19,375 tons. The SHFE cathode copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons, and the SHFE cathode copper warrants decreased by 2,856 tons to 19,622 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,555 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was 525 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 46.8 dollars/ton, up 4.91 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan decreased by 730 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton and 69,580 yuan/ton respectively. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The refined copper output was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social copper inventory was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 55,540 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 67,900 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The copper product output was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.09%, up 0.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, up 0.42%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0006 to 10.62%, and the at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.4, up 0.0176 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will strictly control the new capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacities such as silicon, lithium, and magnesium. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3%, far exceeding the expected 2.4%. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. Trump signed an announcement to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - finished products and high - copper derivatives from August 1 [2].