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泸州老窖(000568) - 000568泸州老窖投资者关系管理信息20251226
2025-12-26 12:15
Group 1: Company Strategy and Development - The company aims to upgrade its ecological chain strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on internal core capabilities and external collaboration within the industry chain to enhance operational efficiency and core competitiveness [1][2] - The company is adapting to the new generation of consumer demands and lifestyle changes, promoting systematic transformation in strategic positioning, business layout, and operational models [2] Group 2: Targeting Young Consumers - The company is innovating products to meet the emotional and experiential needs of young consumers, focusing on low-alcohol products and new consumption scenarios [3] - New product lines include low-alcohol beverages and innovative items like craft beer and fruit wines, catering to the preferences of younger demographics [3] Group 3: Low-Alcohol Product Advantages - The company has established a strong technical foundation for low-alcohol products, ensuring quality and taste, which are critical for market differentiation [4] - The 38-degree product has gained recognition in key regions, reflecting consumer trust and market validation [4] Group 4: Pricing Strategy for Guojiao 1573 - The pricing strategy for Guojiao 1573 is based on maintaining long-term brand value and stability, avoiding short-term fluctuations in response to market changes [5] - The brand's pricing logic considers both value-conscious consumers and those seeking brand prestige, with a focus on enhancing service quality and consumer experience [5] Group 5: E-commerce Perspective - E-commerce is recognized as a vital channel for market connection, with ongoing development and regulatory challenges in the industry [6] - The company plans to explore compliant e-commerce models while promoting synergy between online and offline channels to support sustainable industry growth [6] Group 6: Industry Sales Outlook - The white liquor industry experienced fluctuations in sales, with a strong start in early 2025 followed by adjustments due to market conditions [7] - Despite short-term challenges, the industry is expected to return to a healthy growth trajectory by focusing on market stability and capturing new opportunities from consumer evolution [7]
创业板指本周实现日线5连阳,创业板ETF(159915)等产品助力布局“春季躁动”行情
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 10:17
Group 1 - The ChiNext Growth Index rose by 4.4%, the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index increased by 4.2%, and the ChiNext Index gained 3.9%, achieving five consecutive days of gains [1][3] - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout as 2026 approaches, with expectations for a small rally around New Year's [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with anticipated policy benefits being released earlier, leading to structural opportunities concentrated in sectors aligned with policy direction and industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The strategic emerging industries account for a significant portion, with the power equipment, communication, and electronics sectors collectively representing nearly 60% of the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index [5] - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index consists of 200 stocks with medium market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies in the ChiNext market, with over 40% of the index comprised of the information technology sector [5] - The ChiNext Growth Index is made up of 50 stocks that exhibit strong growth characteristics and good liquidity, with the power equipment, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors accounting for approximately 60% [5] Group 3 - As of December 26, 2025, the rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the ChiNext Index, ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index, and ChiNext Growth Index are 41.2x, 105.0x, and 40.9x respectively [3][6] - The cumulative performance of the indices shows a year-to-date increase of 51.5% for the ChiNext Index, 29.1% for the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index, and 72.4% for the ChiNext Growth Index [8] - The historical cumulative performance over the past year indicates a rise of 47.1% for the ChiNext Index, 23.6% for the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index, and 66.1% for the ChiNext Growth Index [8]
国货航(001391) - 001391国货航投资者关系管理信息20251226
2025-12-26 09:46
Group 1: Strategic Planning and Development - The company is actively advancing its "14th Five-Year Plan" in alignment with national and group strategies, focusing on enhancing international air cargo capacity and reducing logistics costs [2] - The strategic goal is to establish itself as a comprehensive air logistics service provider, optimizing resource allocation to enhance industry competitiveness and improve resource utilization efficiency [3] Group 2: Fleet and Capacity Management - In 2025, the company introduced all-new Boeing 777 freighters, while A330 aircraft were converted from passenger to cargo use [3] - Future decisions on passenger aircraft conversions will be based on operational needs, market conditions, and economic benefits [3] Group 3: Route Expansion and Pricing Strategy - In the first half of 2025, the company launched six new routes, including Chengdu-Dubai and Shanghai-Hanoi, to capture emerging market opportunities [3] - The pricing strategy involves enhancing charter and agreement bidding systems, exploring attractive bidding models, and establishing a monitoring mechanism for capacity and pricing management [3] Group 4: Cargo Business Operations - The company exclusively procures cargo transport services from Air China for passenger aircraft, operating under its own name for cargo business [4] - The settlement model involves charging transportation service fees based on actual cargo revenue, deducting a certain business fee rate [4] Group 5: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from its unique position as a flag carrier, a diverse equity structure, a large fleet, and a robust route network [4] - Additional advantages include ground service support, a professional team for efficient operations, and digital empowerment to enhance service quality [4]
坚定信心真抓实干 奋力实现“十五五”良好开局 ——从中央政治局会议看2026年经济工作方向
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-26 09:16
12月8日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究2026年经济工作。 会议总结分析今年经济工作,对明年经济工作作出一系列重要部署,必将进一步坚定 发展信心、凝聚发展共识,有效应对各种冲击挑战,巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头,为 实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 今年经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年,在中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义。 会议总结一年来经济工作,作出重要判断:以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全 党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏,统筹国内国际两个大局,实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策,经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现。 "今年以来,面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面,党中央科学决策,各地区 各部门狠抓落实,前三季度我国国内生产总值同比增长5.2%,在全球主要经济体中保 持前列,继续展现强大韧性和活力。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 会议指出,我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进,新质生产力稳步发展,改革开放迈出 新步伐,重点领域风险化解取得积极进展,民生保障更加有力,社会大局保持稳定。 "两个'更好统筹'的要求,准确把握明年发展环境的严峻复杂形势,尤其是准确把握国际 ...
肖耿解读十五五规划下资本市场新机遇:民富国强就是高质量发展
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 08:29
12月26日,由金融界主办的"启航·2025金融年会"系列活动在北京成功举办。作为年会重磅环节之一,"启航·2025上市公司高质量发展年会"以"穿越周期,韧 性成长"为主题,来自监管部门、行业协会、金融机构等相关领导和重磅嘉宾,以及来自200余家上市公司的优秀企业代表齐聚一堂,共话发展路径,为资本 市场高质量发展赋能,为中国式现代化建设注入持久动能。 当日,2025第十四届金融界"金智奖"年度评选也同步揭晓。该奖项旨在引导上市公司聚焦主业、持续创新、践行社会责任,推动资本向优质企业集聚,海尔 智家、利亚德、金龙鱼、东鹏饮料等140余家企业从超8000家A股、港股和中概股企业中脱颖而出,成为高质量发展典范。 肖耿指出,十五五时期(2025-2030年)是承前启后的关键阶段,企业家面临的最大系统性风险与机会均源于公共政策与地缘政治变化,而全球政治家与各 国政府政策(包括中国五年规划)是主导这些变量的核心力量。企业家需通过理解政策制定规律、支持高质量政策研究,实现风险防范与趋势性机会捕捉。 他强调,十五五规划围绕现代化产业体系、科技自立自强、新质生产力、强大国内市场、高水平对外开放等15个领域提出61条建议,将开启 ...
PVC电石法负荷小幅回升
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 03:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market rebounds due to macro - sentiment, with marginal improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policy dynamics. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. The supply - side starts to increase slightly, and the demand - side has mixed performance. Key factors to watch include liquid chlorine price fluctuations, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,757 yuan/ton (- 24), the East China basis is - 277 yuan/ton (+ 24), and the South China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,520 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 986 yuan/ton (+ 116), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 469 yuan/ton (+ 51), and the PVC export profit is - 11.7 US dollars/ton (- 5.7) [1] - **PVC Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (- 1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (- 0.7), the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1] - **Downstream Order Situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+ 11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,233 yuan/ton (- 17), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1 yuan/ton (+ 1) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 715 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,214 yuan/ton (- 16), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 529.4 yuan/ton (- 55.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 222.58 yuan/ton (+ 4.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 423.99 yuan/ton (+ 30.00) [2] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 million tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 million tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.00% (+ 1.50%) [2] - **Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.00% (- 1.11%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.03% (- 2.59%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - **Macro Factors**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft compilation meeting and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost PVC demand expectations. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply decreases slightly due to new and continued device maintenance, but the supply side is still abundant. Downstream start - up decreases slightly, and the export orders remain resilient before the double festivals. Social inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level year - on - year [3] - **Profit and Market Pressure**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit of the upstream PVC has some recovery, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide and semi - coke production are both in the red. The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Caustic Soda - **Price and Inventory**: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. Shandong's inventory pressure is partially relieved, while Jiangsu's caustic soda inventory accumulates [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side start - up rate increases slightly, and the overall start - up is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive but is expected to decline further, which may strengthen the cost support. The alumina plant's demand is relatively stable, while non - aluminum demand weakens [3] Strategy - **PVC**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5] - **Caustic Soda**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5]
明年春节放假9天 减少调休回应社会期待
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-12-26 02:55
南都讯记者杨文君近日,国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在第十四届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十九次 会议上作报告,汇报了国家发展改革委关于第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议代表建议、批评和意 见办理情况。 全国统一大市场建设的"四梁八柱"已经基本建立 郑栅洁在报告中提到:"以积极回应代表关切为落脚点,着力增强办理实效。" 经全国人大常委会委员长会议审议通过,交由国家发改委牵头办理"稳步推进全国统一大市场建设"重点 督办建议,包含10件具体建议。国家发改委将此作为办理工作的重中之重,以点带面引领提升整体办理 水平。 报告指出,在全国人大财经委指导下,在有关部门大力支持下,先后赴重庆、海南、江苏、广东等地方 开展实地调研,听取有关地方、企业和人大代表的意见建议,深入了解地方融入全国统一大市场建设、 招商引资、统一电力市场建设等有关情况。与有关代表在京座谈,认真研究办理其提出的"关于全面整 治'内卷式'竞争的建议"。 结合重点督办建议诉求和关切,组织实施全国统一大市场建设指引,制定妨碍建设全国统一大市场事项 清单,出台市场准入负面清单(2025年版),开展招标投标领域突出问题系统整治,规范地方招商引资行 为。 报告提到,截 ...
关于《中共南京市委关于制定南京市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》的说明
Nan Jing Ri Bao· 2025-12-26 02:20
周红波 同志们: 受市委常委会委托,我就《中共南京市委关于制定南京市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》(以下简称《建议》)起草的有关情况向全会作说明。 《建议》稿起草的总体考虑是,坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神和习近平总书记对江苏工作重要讲话精神,认真落实省委十四届十次全会部 署,准确把握"十五五"时期经济社会发展的阶段性要求,深入分析面临的机遇和挑战,紧扣南京在全国 全省发展大局中的定位,立足南京市情、顺应群众期盼,对"十五五"时期我市发展作出系统谋划和战略 部署。 在《建议》稿起草过程中,我们注意把握以下几点。一是坚持对标对表。深入贯彻落实习近平总书 记对江苏工作重要讲话精神,体现走在前、做示范、挑大梁、作贡献的省会担当,以实际行动坚定拥 护"两个确立",坚决做到"两个维护"。二是坚持服务大局。主动以南京所能服务国家所需、全省所需, 充分发挥高质量发展区域增长极作用,更好服务国家重大战略实施,更好支撑全省"一中心一基地一枢 纽"建设。三是坚持改革创新。完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,注重运用改革办法破解发展难题,加快 补短板、强弱项,锻长板、扬优势 ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251226
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 01:46
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].
2026年宏观前瞻:“十五五”开局下的经济韧性与机会
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-26 01:43
2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年,市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观,整体预期实际增速在5% 附近,实现压力不大。具体分领域来看: 基建方面,预计呈前高后低走势,增速维持在6.5%附近,温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务; 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下,高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快,叠加出口红利,投资同比预 计在8%附近; 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低,销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄,整体固投呈温和修复趋 势; 回到整个市场的定价上看,一方面,明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观,对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是,我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡,所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大,但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说,明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份,债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格,大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF(511260)核心价值凸显:配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求,交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益,在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下,成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...