Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's economic growth remains resilient and within a reasonable range, with structural improvements in the economy, despite global uncertainties. It is expected that policies will accelerate in the second half of the year to enhance public sentiment and stabilize expectations, leading to qualitative and quantitative economic growth [1] Group 2 - Expanding consumption subsidies and tapping into endogenous potential is a key task for policies in the second half of the year. The consumption market contributed over half to economic growth in the first half, with service consumption showing strong performance, evidenced by a 5.3% year-on-year increase in service retail sales, outpacing goods retail growth [2] - The rise of "new consumption" trends, particularly among younger demographics, is noteworthy. Preferences for cultural and tourism products are increasing, indicating a shift in consumption structure and habits, which should be supported by consumption policies [2] Group 3 - Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing growth. Increased fiscal spending is anticipated in the second half to enhance public perception of government efforts to expand domestic demand. Suggestions include executing budgets effectively for consumption subsidies and accelerating infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy is expected to strengthen further, with improvements in liquidity and a focus on optimizing benchmark interest rates and liquidity provisions to better support the real economy and new consumption demands [3] - The year 2025 is critical for transitioning between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, necessitating policy designs that address both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural reforms [3]

Core Viewpoint - The survival and evolution of consumer brands heavily rely on two core genes: "deepening value perception" and "breaking through innovation" [1][10] Group 1: New Normal in Chinese Consumer Market - The Chinese consumer market has entered a "new normal" characterized by "single-digit growth," increasing complexity, and differentiation [2] - Consumer spending is increasingly influenced by actual income and assets rather than confidence levels, leading to more rational spending decisions focused on quality of life [2][3] - Notable market phenomena include the success of Labubu and the pressure on Moutai's prices, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and behaviors [2] Group 2: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are adjusting their spending behaviors to adapt to a challenging economic environment, with a weakening correlation between consumption intention and overall willingness to spend [3] - Wealthy urban consumers plan to increase daily spending by 2.6% by 2025, focusing on tangible goods like housing and vehicles, as well as intangible services for personal fulfillment [3] - Net consumption intentions show a willingness to invest in education (34%), health products (26%), and travel (12%), while categories like home appliances and tobacco show a tendency to tighten spending [3] Group 3: Value Expectations and Spending Balance - Consumers are opting for downgraded consumption in some areas while spending lavishly in others, reflecting a shift from "having more" to "living better" [4] Group 4: Innovation in New Consumption - New consumption is seen as a deepening evolution of consumption upgrade trends, with increasing demand for practical and emotional value [6] - Innovations are driven by new technologies, concepts, and models, particularly in hot consumer sectors like IP toys, jewelry, outdoor sports, and beauty products [7] - The demand for products with high cost-performance ratios, technological content, and health benefits is becoming a breakthrough point for new consumption [8] Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities for New Consumption Brands - New consumption categories face inevitable iterations and renewals, with challenges including intensified competition and failure to keep up with demand trends [8] - Companies are encouraged to shift from short-term profit strategies to long-term sustainable practices by enhancing innovation, optimizing channels, and accelerating globalization [9]

Group 1 - As of July 15, 2025, South Korean investors have accumulated over $5.4 billion in trading volume in mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets, making China their second-largest overseas investment destination after the U.S. [1] - South Korean investors show a strong preference for Hong Kong stocks, with notable net purchases in companies like Xiaomi ($170 million), BYD ($93.1 million), and CATL ($60.89 million) [1] - The trend of South Korean investors aggressively buying Chinese assets reflects a global shift in capital allocation, driven by the resilience of the Chinese economy and significant breakthroughs in technology sectors like AI [1] Group 2 - Bridgewater Associates has adopted a more optimistic investment strategy in China, reporting a 5.8% return for its onshore fund in Q2 and a total return of 13.6% for the first half of the year [2] - Citigroup has upgraded its rating on China's consumer sector from "neutral" to "overweight," highlighting the growth prospects in China's internet and technology industries [2] - There is a growing belief among foreign investors that China's capital market has more room for excess returns, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, focusing on companies with healthy cash flows and stable ROE [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has remained active in 2025, with the average daily trading volume reaching HKD 230.2 billion (approximately RMB 210.5 billion) in June, a 107% increase year-on-year [3] - The average daily trading volume for the first half of 2025 was HKD 240.2 billion (approximately RMB 219.7 billion), marking a 118% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Despite the structural inflow of regional and trading funds, long-term foreign capital has yet to return to the Hong Kong market, although there remains a willingness to allocate to quality stocks and structural highlights [3]

摩根时代睿选股票型证券投资基金 基金管理人：摩根基金管理（中国）有限公司 基金管理人的董事会及董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 基金托管人中国工商银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定，于 2025 年 7 月 18 日复核了本 报告中的财务指标、净值表现和投资组合报告等内容，保证复核内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险，投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅读本 基金的招募说明书。 本报告中财务资料未经审计。 本报告期自 2025 年 4 月 1 日起至 6 月 30 日止。 §2 基金产品概况 基金简称 摩根时代睿选股票 基金主代码 014341 基金运作方式 契约型开放式 基金合同生效日 2023 年 6 月 13 日 报告期末基金份额总额 64,806,245.22 份 通过把握资产轮动、产业策略与经济周期相联系的规 律，挖掘经济周期波动中强势行业中具有核心竞争优 投资目标 势的上市公司，力求 ...

南方绩优成长混合型证券投资基金 基金管理人：南方基金管理股份有限公司 基金托管人：中国工商银行股份有限公司 南方绩优成长混合型证券投资基金 2025 年第 2 季度报告 §1 重要提示 基金管理人的董事会及董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 基金托管人中国工商银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定，于 2025 年 7 月 17 日复核 了本报告中的财务指标、净值表现和投资组合报告等内容，保证复核内容不存在虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险，投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅 读本基金的招募说明书。 本报告中财务资料未经审计。 本报告期自 2025 年 4 月 1 日起至 6 月 30 日止。 | | | | 基金简称 | 南方绩优成长混合 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 基金主代码 | 202003 | | | 前端交易代码 | 202003 | | | 后端交易代码 | 20200 ...

Group 1: Fund Performance and Trends - The Dachen Insight Advantage Mixed Fund announced a successful launch with a total issuance scale of 2.46 billion, making it the largest actively managed equity fund launched in 2023 [1] - The Huashang Zhiyuan Return Mixed Fund also launched with a scale of 2.082 billion, setting a record for similar products this year [1] - The total issuance scale of actively managed equity funds reached 56.964 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.01% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: ETF Market Developments - The first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs saw significant inflows, with the Huaxia ETF surpassing 14.2 billion in scale and experiencing a net inflow of approximately 11.1 billion on its first trading day, marking a 378% increase [2] - The Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF also reported a trading volume of 18.361 billion, with a turnover rate of 612.17%, bringing its scale to over 10.9 billion [2] - Among the four Sci-Tech Bond ETFs listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, two have exceeded 10 billion in scale, namely the Jiashi and Fuguo Sci-Tech Bond ETFs [2] Group 3: Fund Liquidation - A total of 50 actively managed equity funds have been liquidated this year, including several initiated funds [3] - In July alone, six actively managed equity funds entered liquidation, triggered by the automatic termination of fund contracts without the need for a shareholder meeting [3] - Notable liquidated funds include those focused on popular sectors such as artificial intelligence and healthcare [3] Group 4: Floating Fee Rate Funds - The first batch of floating management fee funds has seen a total issuance scale of 24.762 billion, with 25 products announced as established [4] - A second batch of 11 floating fee rate funds has been submitted for approval, focusing on sectors like high-end equipment and healthcare [4] Group 5: Fund Manager Adjustments - Fund manager Liu Gesong has made significant adjustments in the second quarter, reducing holdings in the new energy vehicle supply chain and semiconductor equipment companies while increasing positions in new consumption, internet, and military industries [5] - Liu emphasized the importance of monitoring domestic and international economic developments and policy impacts on industries [5] Group 6: Portfolio Insights - Gao Nan, Chief Equity Investment Officer at Yongying Fund, has concentrated investments in TMT and innovative pharmaceutical sectors in his second-quarter report [6] - The top ten holdings of Gao's flagship fund include companies like Pop Mart, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Kangfang Biotech, with notable new additions and increased stakes in several stocks [7] Group 7: Market Overview - On July 18, the market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.5% and total trading volume reaching 1.57 trillion, an increase of 31.7 billion from the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as rare metals and energy metals performed well, while gaming and consumer electronics sectors experienced declines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global equity market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, but uncertainties and policy changes remain [1] Market Resilience - The A-share market experienced volatility driven by "uncertainty" in the first half of the year, with market fears stemming more from unpredictability than from the disturbances themselves [2] - The actual interest rate is currently at a favorable level, and if it remains in the 1%-2% range, the probability of positive returns for the CSI 800 index in the next year is expected to increase significantly [2][3] Asset Allocation Insights - Chinese investors currently allocate about 12% of their household assets to stocks and funds, compared to approximately 40% for American households, indicating a significant gap [3] - The long-term investability of the Chinese capital market is improving, with an increase in stock buybacks and dividend distributions by listed companies [3] Structural Opportunities - Three main asset categories are highlighted: dividend assets benefiting from declining real interest rates, new productivity focusing on technology-driven private enterprises, and new consumer trends aligned with experiential consumption [4] - The potential for revaluation of private enterprises is emphasized, with recent policies signaling a recovery in capital expenditure and return on equity (ROE) [4] Investment Strategy - The core strategy involves focusing on long-duration assets, which can be categorized into stable cash flow types and sustainable growth types [4] - Diversification in investment is stressed, with a focus on thorough fundamental research to identify individual stocks rather than betting on sectors [7] Future Outlook - The transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to continue, with long-term investment value in the stock market gradually becoming apparent despite short-term uncertainties [6] - The relationship between the Hong Kong and A-share markets is viewed as complementary rather than competitive, with each market serving different capital flows [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of cyclical stocks, such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals, indicates a potential signal for the mid-stage main upward wave of the bull market [1][12] Group 1: Historical Context - In previous major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks underperformed in the early stages but became active in the later stages [2][5] - During the mid-stage of the 2014-2015 bull market, cyclical stocks outperformed despite weak economic conditions and declining commodity prices, driven by themes like mergers and acquisitions and state-owned enterprise reforms [2][5] - In the 2020-2021 bull market, cyclical stocks significantly outperformed as the economy stabilized and commodity prices rose [2][5] Group 2: Reasons Behind Performance - The underperformance of cyclical stocks in the early bull market stages is attributed to limited incremental capital, leading to slow price increases, while only a few sectors with strong fundamentals saw gains [9][12] - As the bull market progresses, increased resident capital leads to valuation uplifts across most sectors, with cyclical stocks benefiting from their low valuations in the early stages [9][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - There are two potential scenarios for the future: 1. If economic recovery is weak and supply-side policies take time to impact, cyclical stocks may see 1-2 quarters of excess returns but face volatility afterward [12] 2. If supply-side policies improve quickly and demand-side growth policies show results, cyclical stocks could experience a year-long rally starting from the mid-stage of the bull market [12] - Regardless of the scenario, cyclical stocks are expected to generate excess returns within the next 1-2 quarters [12] Group 4: Current Market Judgments - The current market is characterized by low valuations, weak corporate earnings, and positive policy signals, resembling the early stages of previous bull markets [16] - The market is entering a phase driven by policy improvements and capital inflows, suggesting a broader bull market is likely [16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adopt a flexible allocation strategy, increasing exposure to non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [18][19] - The focus should shift from a "barbell strategy" to an "elastic strategy," with strong performance anticipated in sectors like new consumption and AI, which are less correlated with the economy [18][19]

New Product Launches - Bright Dairy launched the new organic milk ice cream "Guangming Youbei," containing 55% organic milk, with protein content not less than 4.5g/100g [4] - Xueji Snacks and Yili Group introduced a new yogurt product featuring a "milk skin" layer, made from fresh milk sourced from Yili's professional farms [4] - Joyoung released a new red date soy milk powder, made from non-GMO soybeans and red dates, containing 28g of protein per 100g [6] - Yi Bao launched a new 5L packaging of its bottled drinking water, designed for multiple consumption scenarios [6] - Luckin Coffee and Duolingo collaborated to launch a new product, "Green Sand Latte," made with high-quality green beans and IAC award-winning coffee beans [22] Industry Events - Anta opened a new brand experience space called "Anta Home" in Jinjiang, featuring appearances by Olympic champions [9] - Mengniu's high-end ice cream brand Tilan Shengxue officially entered the Hong Kong and Macau markets, becoming the first high-end ice cream brand approved by local authorities [10] - Yuanji Cloud Dumplings announced its first store in Thailand, maintaining its original recipe without local adaptations [12] - Grandpa's Tea appointed actress Shu Qi as its brand ambassador, marking a significant step in brand influence [12] Investment and Financing - The smart beverage retail brand "Pengbei Station" completed a financing round of 50 million yuan, focusing on AIOT solutions for unmanned retail [16] - Qunxing Toys secured 159.47 million yuan in financing, representing 26.25% of the day's buying amount [17] - Jujitang completed a 10 million yuan angel round financing, focusing on health food supply chains [18] - Three Squirrels announced an investment of up to 200 million yuan to upgrade its snack supply chain [19] Food Industry Developments - The new "Shang Jian Wang" tea beverage series from Shan Zha Shu Xia Group features oolong and jasmine tea, with zero sugar, fat, and calories [6] - Farmer Spring launched a new birch tree juice product, currently available only through Sam's Club [24] - DolCas Biotech introduced a chocolate bar containing fish collagen peptides, targeting joint and skin health [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, leading global major indices, with thematic funds achieving significant returns, and a structured bull market is expected in the second half of the year, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [1][3][6]. Thematic Funds Performance - Hong Kong thematic funds have demonstrated outstanding performance, with the highest net asset value growth rate exceeding 130% year-to-date, leading the public fund performance rankings [2][3]. - As of July 18, the Hang Seng Index has risen over 23% this year, contributing to the strong performance of thematic funds, with eight out of the top 20 performing funds being Hong Kong thematic funds [3]. Market Drivers - The strong performance of the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: positive changes in the industry, sensitivity to overseas liquidity conditions, and historically low valuations following several years of decline [3]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index is projected to be around 9 times PE by the end of 2024, indicating significant upside potential [3]. Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about the Hong Kong market, anticipating a structured bull market with a focus on sectors such as AI, new consumption, and robotics [6][8]. - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong is highlighted as a promising investment area, featuring high-quality leaders and various sub-sectors like innovative drugs and internet healthcare [8]. - The consumer sector is also expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand, creating new investment opportunities [8]. Fund Company Activity - There has been a surge in applications for Hong Kong thematic funds, with 17 applications received in July alone, indicating growing interest from fund companies [4][5]. - The influx of overseas and domestic capital into the Hong Kong market is seen as a positive sign for future growth, with the market becoming an attractive destination for diversified investment [5].