Group 1 - The announcement from the regulatory authority indicates that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, while those issued before this date will continue to be exempt until maturity [1][2]. - Investors express confusion over the policy, noting that the removal of tax exemptions will increase the new issuance rates of government bonds, thereby raising government interest expenses, while simultaneously increasing government VAT revenue, leading to a perceived net effect of zero [2][3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of the economic process, suggesting that the dynamics of economic activities are more significant than the static outcomes [4][6]. Group 2 - The policy is viewed as a means to expand the internal economic cycle, with both tax revenue and interest expenses increasing from the government's perspective, and interest income and tax expenditures rising from the perspective of the real economy [6][12]. - Two significant economic concepts are introduced: the neutrality of money and Ricardian equivalence, which explore whether changes in nominal amounts affect real economic outcomes [7][11]. - The article argues that in reality, neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy is neutral, as market participants often lack the rationality and foresight assumed in economic theories [14][12]. Group 3 - The restoration of VAT on government bond interest signals a potential increase in the likelihood of canceling other tax exemptions and social subsidies, particularly the 25% income tax on government bonds [29][40]. - The discussion highlights that the factors contributing to long-term low CPI are systemic and multifaceted, with fiscal policies playing a significant role [25][26]. - The article suggests that the government has two options regarding bond interest: to either keep it low to suppress domestic prices and stimulate exports or to raise it to enhance nominal prices and expand the internal cycle [27][28].

黑色产业链日报 2025/08/01 螺纹钢期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -200 0 200 400 热卷期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -100 0 100 200 300 | 螺纹、热卷现货价格.. | 螺纹、热卷基差. | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | | 螺纹钢汇总价格：中国 | 3402 | 3407 | 01螺纹基差（上海） | 103 | 109 | . 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z000 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 作者| 张奥平 来源 | 正和岛、蓝血研究（lanxueyanjiu) 投稿 | lanxueziben（微信） 城市合伙人招募 | lanxueziben（微信） 本文八大重点： 1、下半年经济工作总基调：坚持稳中求进工作总基调。保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，有力促进国内国际双循环； 2、宏观政策："持续发力、适时加力"代表政策仍有后手，相机抉择。财政方面，加快政府债券发行使用；货币方面，用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加 力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等； 3、需求侧扩内需：培育服务消费新的增长点，政策资源将更多用于"生育补贴"等"投资于人"方面（"保障改善民生中扩大消费需求"），高质量推动"两 重"建设； 4、供给侧改革：整治"内卷式"竞争更进一步，依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理等； 5、钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。企业需关注近年发布的国家及行业标 准，主动对标标准实现设备更新与产品升级。成为先进产能，方可不"被退出"； 6、对外开放：帮助受冲击较大 ...

南华期货焦煤焦炭周报 ——情绪回落 2025/08/01 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【盘面回顾】本周焦煤现货涨跌分化，产地部分煤种因资源紧缺上调报价，口岸蒙煤跟随盘面下跌，口岸蒙 5#原煤报价880-900元/吨，安泽低硫主焦报价1450-1500元/吨，周内焦炭现货四轮提涨落地，第五轮提涨已 经开启。本周双焦盘面暴跌，焦煤月间反套走强，焦炭月差波动不大，JM9-1月差-107.5(-48)，J9-1月 差-39(+10)。 【产业表现】 焦煤：本周新增停产矿山，部分煤种资源紧缺，矿山复产速度偏慢。进口方面，本周口岸蒙煤平均通关量维 持在1000车以上，海煤进口利润收窄，但多数煤种仍具性价比，后续到港仍有压力。需求方面，盘面回调部 分期现商解套，现货抛压加重，口岸报价不断下调，焦煤流拍率环比提高，焦煤投机需求表现偏差。焦化厂 维持刚需采购，当前原料库存可用天数偏高，终端继续补库的驱动不足。 焦炭：现货4轮提涨全面落地，即期焦化利润环比修复，但多数焦化厂仍处于微亏状态，增产积极性一般。下 游钢厂维持较高铁水，焦炭现货资源较为紧张 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company conducted multiple broker strategy meetings from June 9 to August 1, 2025, involving various investment firms and asset management companies, with a total of 13 meetings held [1][2][3][4]. - Participants included notable firms such as JP Morgan Asset Management, Baillie Gifford, and Antipodes, among others, indicating strong interest from institutional investors [1][2][3][4]. Group 2: Performance and Growth Strategy - The company reported steady growth in the first half of the year, driven by customer-oriented management, the implementation of the "123 strategy," and improvements in operational efficiency through AI and digitalization [4][5]. - The company aims to deepen lean management and pursue strategic mergers and acquisitions to sustain long-term growth [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Technology - There is potential for further improvement in operational efficiency, with ongoing initiatives in lean culture and digital transformation [5][6]. - The company has developed a four-layer collaborative system architecture for AI applications, enhancing automation in business processes and improving service efficiency [6]. Group 4: International Expansion and Acquisitions - The company is committed to an internationalization strategy, focusing on strategic acquisitions and building a global service network [7][8]. - Recent acquisitions include the full acquisition of ALS Group's branch in China and Safety SA, which will enhance the company's capabilities in geochemical analysis and food safety [9][10]. Group 5: Talent Development and Organizational Capability - The company emphasizes talent development as a core competitive advantage, investing in training and creating a diverse assessment and incentive mechanism [11][12]. - Initiatives include cross-departmental talent mobility and leadership development programs to enhance organizational capabilities [12]. Group 6: Response to National Policies - The company actively responds to national supply-side reforms by enhancing service quality and investing in emerging sectors such as transportation, healthcare, and green technologies [12]. - This strategic alignment with national policies is expected to strengthen the company's market position and drive sustainable growth [12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 反内卷：建立短期和长期改善的连接 证券分析师： 傅静涛 A0230516110001 韦春泽 A0230524060005 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.07.31 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一、从不同期限讨论反内卷对A股的积极影响：长期强化牛市叙事、中期提高基本面拐点可见度、短期"看长做短"行情演绎更加顺畅 ◼ 长期："反内卷"打造全国统一大市场，提升全要素生产率，A股盈利有望趋势性抬升。不同于2016-2017年周期行业的供给侧改革，严厉的"去产量"在民营企业主 导的中游制造行业不宜也不易执行。建设全国统一大市场，推动要素价格回归合理位置是本轮"反内卷"的重要抓手：1）资本要素：打破地方政府保护，抑制过度补 贴冲动；限制供应链占款，避免过度宽松的金融条件；提高贷款门槛，让资金利率与真实风险匹配。2）劳动力要素：推动企业依法缴纳五险一金，限制过度加班；3） 技术要素：通过技术门槛要求，引导落后产能有序退出；4）土地要素：地方政府不能为了招商引资，以远低于实际价值的价格出让土地。最终，企业成本有序上升， 低效产能在市场作用下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market has highlighted the allocation value of the 10-year government bond ETF (511260), as the market sentiment for bonds has cooled due to rising risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets. The expectation of supply-side reforms remains speculative, while demand-side measures are yet to be introduced, indicating limited potential for reversing economic weakness in the near term. [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, with an average duration of 7.6 years. Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, a five-year return of 19.26%, and a cumulative return of 34.63% since inception. [1] - The ETF has maintained positive annual returns for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool that can weather market cycles. [1] Group 2: Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF offers T+0 trading convenience, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, which is beneficial in a high-volatility market environment. [2] - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors. [3] - The ETF provides transparency in holdings, with daily publication of the PCF list. [4] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, allowing them to access funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later. [4]

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年07月30日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周三SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72858元/吨，环比上 一工作日下跌211元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.2-7.39万元/吨，均价7.2 95万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌200元/吨；工业级碳酸锂7.03-7. 14万元/吨，均价7.085万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌150元/吨。 供应方面，上周碳酸锂产量18630吨，较前一周下降485吨；其中 辉石锂周度产量9264吨，环比下降60吨；云母锂周 ...

2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 7 月 PMI 的不寻常 2025 年 07 月 31 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525070001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 不过"反内卷"对于价格预期反而是件好事。相较于 PMI 生产指数，供给 侧改革对于企业价格预期的改善更加"立竿见影"，7 月 PMI 两大价格指标的同 步上升也证明了这一点（其中 PMI 原材料购进价格指数环比上升 3.1pct、录得 51.5%；PMI 出厂价格指数环比上升 2.1pct、录得 48.3%）。需要注意的是，价 格预期的边际回暖并非代表价格的实质性改善，距离 PPI 增速真正的由负转正尚 待时日。 ➢ 前期出口需求的透支效应开始显现，7 月 PMI 传达出口放缓的信号。7 月 PMI 新出口订单指数转升为降，录得 47.1%（环比-0.6pct），与 7 月高频数据一 样显现出出口放缓的信号。无论是我国港口货运量"季节性"回落时点的提前、 还是洛杉矶港的进口量转升为降，均说明前期强劲"抢出口"对于需求的提前透 支效果现已逐步显现。 ...