金十数据6月5日讯，机构分析指出，加拿大4月份黯淡的贸易报告似乎在一定程度上削弱了加拿大央行 本周维持基准利率不变的理由。加拿大央行此前表示，其将政策利率维持在2.75%不变，部分原因是经 济有所放缓，但并未恶化。而加拿大4月份的贸易报告显示，该国贸易表现低迷，出口下降10.8%，至 近两年来的最低水平，贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的71.4亿加元。加拿大统计局指出，加元自2021年5月以 来最强劲的单月升值推动了出口数据的大幅下降。以美元计算，加拿大4月出口下降8.4%。对美出口下 降15.7%，可能反映了美国进口商为避免关税，在第一季度加速从加拿大供应商处下单的情况。 机构：关税冲击显现 加拿大央行维持利率不变理由受质疑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The belief that U.S. Treasury bonds are a safe haven is facing unprecedented challenges due to rising yields and concerns over fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - In late May, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surpassed the critical psychological level of 5.1%, leading to a significant sell-off in the long-term bond market [1]. - Fitch Ratings has warned that even if the U.S. fiscal deficit improves temporarily in 2025, it is expected to widen again, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 120% by 2026, significantly higher than the median for AA-rated countries [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Current inflation is expected to remain around 4%, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3]. - The Fed is anticipated to only lower interest rates once in the fourth quarter of this year, maintaining a cautious stance despite a projected economic slowdown [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Business Sentiment - There is a noticeable decline in "soft data" related to business investment and hiring intentions, indicating weakening market sentiment [4]. - However, "hard data" such as unemployment claims and monthly employment reports do not yet show significant negative impacts on the labor market [4][5]. Group 4: Trade Uncertainty and Investment Outlook - Policy uncertainty has surged, affecting consumer and business spending decisions, with companies likely to delay investment decisions [5][6]. - The impact of trade uncertainties and inflation pressures is expected to suppress corporate willingness to initiate new projects, potentially leading to slower investment growth and reduced productivity in the medium term [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

瑞士钟表工业联合会的数据显示，4月瑞士钟表出口额同比大幅增长18.2%。这一增长主要受到美国市场的强劲推 动，因担忧高额关税即将生效，美国进口商在监管生效前集中下单，造成短期出口峰值。 今年4月9日起，美国政府开始对包括高档腕表在内的瑞士进口产品征收高达31%的"互惠关税"。此举引发了美国 零售渠道的大规模"抢单潮"。瑞士钟表工业联合会指出，若剔除这一临时性因素，4月整体出口额将下降6.4%，主 要是因为中国内地和香港市场的持续下滑。 具体来说，2025年4月，瑞士手表对中国内地的出口额同比下滑30.5%至1.32亿瑞士法郎，相比今年前三个月的跌 幅有所扩大；对中国香港的出口额同比下滑22.8%至1.31亿瑞士法郎；对美国的出口额同比增长149.2%至8.52亿瑞 士法郎。对美国、日本、英国、新加坡、中国内地、中国香港这6个主要市场的出口总额同比增长34.9%至15.69亿 瑞士法郎，合计贡献了全球市场出口总额的61.5%。其中价格在3000瑞士法郎以上的手表出口量同比增长19.8%， 出口额同比增长22.9%，是增长幅度最高的价位段。 值得注意的是，多家品牌正在采取不同策略以降低关税冲击，劳力士已于4月中旬 ...

应对关税冲击 现代汽车考虑将美国汽车价格上调1% 金十数据5月30日讯，知情人士称，现代汽车正在考虑将其在美国的全部产品价格上调1%，以减轻特朗 普关税带来的冲击。报道称，提价最早可能在下周开始，将影响到该公司所有车型的建议零售价，提价 将适用于新生产的汽车，而已经在经销商处销售的汽车将不受影响。这家韩国汽车制造商还可能提高运 费以及地垫和车顶栏杆等配件的费用，此举将有助于避免进一步提高其汽车的基本价格。 ...

——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...

| 公询 各资格:证监许可【 | ICTERIA | 日度 策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 最新 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 用守 | 短期高位区间震荡，但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 日銀 | - Fel | | 海外铜矿供应扰动提振铜价,但近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市 | 看空 | 场风险偏好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱,铜价上行空间变限,短 | 期谨防回落风险。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 農汤 ...

Group 1 - The annual meeting of global central banks in Tokyo will focus on "new challenges in monetary policy," addressing weak economic growth and persistent inflation pressures [1][2] - The meeting will feature key speakers including Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements [1][2] - The discussions will center around the impact of tariffs on economic downturn risks, particularly influenced by U.S. policies under President Trump [2][4] Group 2 - Central banks are facing intertwined pressures from sustained inflation, economic downturn risks, and market volatility, with a particular focus on the implications of U.S. tariffs [2][4] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a gradual rate hike path, but recent global economic changes have raised doubts about its tightening pace [2][7] - The meeting will also address the effectiveness and limitations of unconventional monetary tools used during economic downturns [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode, as rising tariffs are expected to push inflation higher, complicating its policy decisions [4][5] - European Central Bank officials are considering pausing further easing measures due to re-emerging inflation pressures, despite plans for a rate cut in June [6] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its growth forecast due to U.S. tariffs and is signaling a potential pause in its rate hike cycle, while still aiming for a core inflation target of 2% [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - **Gold**: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - **Japanese Yen**: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - **Pure Lithium**: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Hogs**: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt**: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber**: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber**: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - **Urea and Methanol**: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations may experience fluctuations, and it is essential to focus on domestic economic management to mitigate the impacts of tariffs [1][2][15]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Strategy - Tariffs are a significant policy tool for the Trump administration, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit and promoting the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. [3][4]. - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2024, indicating a long-term trend of increasing trade imbalance since 1980 [3]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP is expected to remain low, with manufacturing value added accounting for only 9.9% of GDP and manufacturing employment at 8.08% of total employment by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 52.2 in April, reflecting a significant decline in public sentiment regarding the economic outlook since Trump's inauguration [3]. - Inflation expectations among consumers have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations recorded at 6.5% and 4.4%, respectively, in April, marking substantial increases from previous months [4]. Group 3: Economic Challenges and Recommendations - There are five key areas where the Chinese economy needs improvement: declining export growth, weakening real estate transactions, low price levels, high consumer replacement rates, and a disconnect between unemployment rates and unemployment insurance expenditures [5][6][7][9][13]. - The real estate market shows signs of weakness, with a year-on-year decline in transactions of 21% and 10% in major cities during late April [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline due to various factors, including real estate chain contraction and oversupply in new production capacities [9]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the job market and improve employment rates, especially for recent graduates, it is recommended to support specific industries and provide tax incentives for companies that commit to maintaining or increasing employment [14]. - The government should consider implementing "super-normal" policies, including timely and substantial economic stimulus measures, to address the challenges posed by tariffs and economic pressures [19][20].