Core Insights - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $26.6, closing at $4159.6 per ounce, with a rise of 0.64% [1] - December gold futures reached a historical high of $4190.90 per ounce overnight, while December silver futures hit a record high of $52.495 per ounce, although both closed significantly lower than their overnight peaks [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will adjust interest rate policies based on economic outlook and risk balance, rather than following a predetermined path [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed later this month, with another expected in December, following a previous cut of the same magnitude in September [1] - Despite recent consolidation risks for gold and silver, Bank of America maintains that both metals will continue their upward trend, forecasting prices of $5000 per ounce for gold and $65 for silver next year [1] - On a technical level, December gold futures bulls hold a strong overall technical advantage, with the next upward target being a breakout above the solid resistance level of $4300, while bears aim to break below the solid technical support level of $3900 [1] Silver Futures - The December silver futures price decreased by 8.4 cents, closing at $50.345 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.17% [2]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics, marking his first public appearance since the September FOMC meeting, with investors keenly awaiting insights on interest rate policy direction [1] - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September meeting, with nearly unanimous support, except for new board member Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with one faction advocating for further reductions this year, while another believes the current stance is sufficiently accommodative, adding uncertainty to future policy paths [1][2] Economic Context - The Fed's dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability is currently challenged by competing concerns, as signs of a cooling labor market suggest potential vulnerabilities in employment, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target for the past five years [2] - Powell's focus on the labor market could indicate room for one or two more rate cuts before year-end, whereas an emphasis on persistent inflation would raise the threshold for further easing, suggesting a pause in rate cuts at the upcoming October meeting [3] Data Challenges - The speech occurs amid a government shutdown that has halted the release of key employment and inflation reports, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [1][3] - Investors currently perceive a 97% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, highlighting market expectations despite the lack of new economic data [3]

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The strong dollar bet was based on the expectation of ongoing policy uncertainty in the U.S. and a potential rotation out of the dollar by reserve managers and private asset allocators [1] - Recent global political uncertainties, particularly in Europe and Japan, have shifted the narrative from a weak dollar to a strong dollar, as the U.S. is no longer the sole source of uncertainty [2][3] - The dollar's valuation had reached unsustainable levels after 13 years of real appreciation, making it unlikely to return to earlier highs [4] Group 2: Japanese Market Insights - Investors in Japanese stocks, particularly multinationals, benefit from a weaker yen, which enhances their operating margins [5] - The recent weakness of the yen has not fundamentally harmed the Japanese economy but reflects investor sentiment regarding central bank actions [6] - Concerns about wage stagnation in Japan have been raised, likening the situation to historical economic challenges faced by England [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Considerations - The U.S. government shutdown is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as alternative data sources are available [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have a balanced approach to interest rate policy, with current conditions not being overly restrictive [10] - Any potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to be cautious and not indicative of a long-term trend [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has concluded, with four main candidates being considered by President Trump after interviews conducted by Treasury Secretary Becerra [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Becerra completed interviews with 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, focusing on their views on interest rate policies and the exit strategy for quantitative easing [2]. - The final decision will be made by President Trump, who has expressed a preference for candidates including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, current Governor Waller, and White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, with Rick Rieder from BlackRock also performing well in interviews [2][6]. Group 2: Candidates' Perspectives - Kevin Walsh supports the idea of reducing the Fed's balance sheet, aligning with Becerra's views on central bank reform [7]. - Current Governor Waller has also outlined plans to reduce the Fed's asset holdings, which have expanded significantly due to the purchase of government securities during financial crises [8]. - Kevin Hassett, as a member of Trump's inner circle, shares similar policy views with the President, while Rick Rieder's extensive experience in global fixed income is recognized [9]. Group 3: Market Concerns - The Federal Reserve is currently facing turmoil, with concerns about the independence of the central bank due to Trump's actions, including appointing allies and attempting to dismiss a board member [11]. - Ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence have led to market volatility and increased bets that the next chair will adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [12].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇10月9日｜美国财长贝森特对几位角逐美联储主席职位的人士进行了质询，询问他们对于利率政 策以及危机时期刺激措施的撤销问题的看法。据参与该过程的人士透露，为期数周的候选人筛选会议于 周二结束，共有11名候选人参与其中。候选人表示，他们接受贝森特、财政部官员Hunter McMaster以 及顾问Francis Browne长达两小时的面试。 ...

美国财长贝森特对几位角逐美联储主席职位的人士进行了质询，询问他们对于利率政策以及危机时期刺 激措施的撤销问题的看法。据参与该过程的人士透露，为期数周的候选人筛选会议于周二结束，共有11 名候选人参与其中。候选人表示，他们接受了贝森特、财政部官员Hunter McMaster以及顾问Francis Browne长达两小时的面试。（英国金融时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The home improvement sector, particularly companies like Home Depot and Lowe's, has underperformed in 2025 due to high interest rates and a slowdown in home sales, but may benefit from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Market Performance - Home Depot and Lowe's have significantly lagged behind the S&P 500, which has returned over 13% year-to-date, while both stocks have traded negatively for most of 2025 [2] - Home Depot's stock price forecast is $436.40, indicating a 13.69% upside based on 27 analyst ratings, while Lowe's forecast is $283.83 with a 19.45% upside [5][10] Group 2: Company Performance - Both companies reported solid earnings and comparable sales growth in Q2, but missed expectations due to soft demand for big-ticket projects [6] - Home Depot's revenue is nearly double that of Lowe's, generating just under $160 billion compared to Lowe's $83 billion [8] Group 3: Market Sensitivity - Home Depot's Pro segment, which accounts for over 50% of its revenue, provides some protection against interest rate sensitivity, while Lowe's is more vulnerable due to its focus on the DIY market, which derives approximately 70% of its revenue from discretionary spending [7][10] - The high-interest-rate environment has stymied home sales and renovations, leading to a frozen housing market [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - If interest rates decline rapidly, Lowe's could see elevated sales growth due to the unlocking of 'trapped' equity, while Home Depot's sales growth is more stable [13] - Both stocks face challenges in 2025, but a potential 50-basis-point rate cut could provide a minor rally [14]

10月8日，泰国央行将利率维持在1.5%不变，市场预期降息25个基点至1.25%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for a more aggressive interest rate cut path, citing significant changes in the U.S. economy under the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Miran believes the Federal Reserve has ample room to lower interest rates, as it is still far from the zero lower bound [1] - He emphasizes that the divergence in views on monetary policy among officials is not as pronounced as perceived by the public [1] - Miran suggests that if the policy deviates from the intended path, adjustments should be made swiftly [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - He states that the current interest rate policy is not at a crisis level yet, but maintaining it unchanged for another year could lead to issues [1]

Economic Context - The September jobs report is missing due to the government shutdown, leaving policymakers without crucial economic data as the Federal Reserve considers its next interest rate move [1][2] - The Federal Reserve relies on economic data to set monetary policy, making the absence of key reports like retail sales and inflation data problematic for decision-making [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Economic Indicators - The fiscal deficit has decreased by approximately $400 billion on an annualized basis from February to August compared to the previous fiscal year, indicating a significant policy shift [6] - Population growth has experienced substantial fluctuations, impacting the neutral interest rate and making current monetary policy more restrictive [7][8] Interest Rate Decisions - The neutral rate is estimated to be around 0.5% in real terms, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should move towards this rate more quickly due to recent tightening of policy [8][9] - Concerns are raised about the risks of an economic slowdown if interest rates remain too tight for an extended period [9] Inflation Dynamics - Current inflation data shows significant increases in food prices and other essentials, complicating the justification for cutting interest rates [19][20] - Shelter costs, which are a major component of inflation, are expected to see disinflation due to a lag in average rent adjustments compared to market rents [22][23] Policy Criticism and Responses - Criticism from economists like Larry Summers highlights concerns about the potential inflationary impact of current policies, with a call for more cautious approaches [26][28] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have not adversely affected the bond market, indicating a different economic landscape compared to previous years [17]