周五，日本央行按息不动。 日央行行长植田和男表示，若经济如预期将继续加息。 值得关注的是，日元在持续承压后，突然强势拉涨。 盘中，美元兑日元一度升至159.20上方，逼近市场预期的159.00干预底线。 但随后短线跳水，当前已抹去日内全部涨幅，现报158.209。 2025-2027财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.7%、1.9%、2.0%。（去年10月预期为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%） 2025-2027财年实际GDP增速预期中值分别为0.9%、1.0%、0.8%（去年10月预期为0.7%、0.7%和1.0%） 2025-2027财年核心-核心CPI预期中值分别为3.0%、2.2%、2.1%（去年10月预期为2.8%、2.0%和2.0%） 午后，日行长植田和男明确表态，若经济形势如预期般发展，日本央行将继续提高利率。 对于加息时间点，植田透露正关注4月份的价格变化。 不过他强调，加息的具体路径与节奏将取决于彼时的经济、物价及金融市场状况。 | | | | | ■ USDJPY 分时 多日 日K 周K 月K 李K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 2小时 3小时 4小时 Tick 1天: ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 虽然只有0.75%，但这也是过去三十年里，日本利率最高的时期。高利率对商品需求和经济发展必定产 生抑制作用。日本央行缓慢的加息节奏，目的是试探宏观经济到底能承受多高的基准利率。目前看来， 0.75%的利率已经能够显著抑制通胀数据，日本央行再次启动加息进程的难度较高。 除了利率因素外，日本首相高市早苗一系列极端言行间接削弱了日本经济复苏态势，尤其是稀土、半导 体和汽车产业；美国对日本的高关税政策也是负面因素之一，比如15%基准关税、15%汽车零部件关 税、25%的钢铁制品关税等等。 ▲ATFX图 1月23日，ATFX汇评：日本央行公布开年首份决议结果：维持0.75%的基准利率不变，随着经济和物价 的改善，将继续上调政策利率。政策声明中提到：2026年通胀预期为2~2.3%，高于去年10月份预期的 1.8~2.2%；2027年通胀预期为2.0~2.3%，高于去年10月份预期的2.0~2.2%。 ▲ATFX图 日本央行按兵不动，符合市场预期，但也凸显出日央行对经济前景和通胀形势的担忧。2024年3月份， 日本央行首次加息；同年7月，再次加息；2025年1月和12月分别加息一次。将近两年时 ...

日元兑美元汇率直线拉升 北京时间1月23日15时40分左右， 日元兑美元汇率突然直线拉升。美 元兑日元短线跳水，跌约170点至157.50附近， 此前一度升至159.20上方。 刚刚 ，日元 兑美元汇率突然直线拉升。美 元兑日元短线跳水，跌约170点至157.50附近，此前一度升至159.20上方。 1月23日下午，日本央行行长植田和男在央行决策后的新闻发布会上表示， 由于市场波动性仍居高不下，将密切关注市场动 态。 他指出，12月加息后，市场环境依然宽松。他表示，为帮助形成稳定的收益率，该行可能会开展债券市场操作，当局已 准备 好在特殊情况下灵活开展市场操作。发布会上，他没有直接评论日元疲软问题。他表示，将继续关注汇率波动对价格趋 势的影响，加息步伐将取决于经济形势。他表示，央行独立性是实现价格目标的关键。 植田和男表示，日本总体通胀率"不久后将低于2%"，核心CPI持续低于目标的时间高度不确定。减税对财政的影响应由政府解 释。长期利率上升或受财政政策等多重因素驱动。 Justin Low表示，这看起来并非真正的干预行动，因为日本方面若真的采取实质性行动，其影响将会更为广泛和强烈。 所以，这只是一次"汇率测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to continue its downward trend despite the Bank of Japan's recent hawkish signals, as the lack of strong measures to support the currency keeps depreciation pressure intact [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Situation - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 30-year high, leading to a 0.2% decline in the yen against the dollar, reaching 158.74 [1]. - Strategists express differing views on whether the yen can stabilize and rebound, with some indicating that the current exchange rate is close to a critical psychological level of 160 [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite the Bank of Japan's slight hawkish tone, the absence of substantial measures means that the yen's short-term downward pressure is unlikely to reverse [2]. - Market expectations suggest that current interest rates may be too low relative to inflation levels, leading to further anticipated weakness in the yen [2]. - Some strategists believe that the Bank of Japan's recent communication indicates a potential for future rate hikes, with expectations for the next increase possibly occurring in July [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Certain strategists identify positive signals in the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, suggesting a potential bottoming out for the yen [3]. - The outlook for inflation and wages appears relatively strong, which may support a hawkish stance and further rate hikes [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance may complicate the situation for the yen, making decisive investor action challenging [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its interest rate at 0.75% while raising economic growth expectations and retaining a hawkish inflation forecast, indicating confidence in Japan's moderate economic recovery, which supports the potential for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Japan decided to keep the policy benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations after a previous increase from 0.5% in December [1] - The central bank will consider the extent of corporate price increases starting in April when discussing potential rate hikes, with the specific path and pace of increases dependent on economic, price, and financial market conditions at that time [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Considerations - The impact of the previous rate hike in December is still being assessed, with a focus on the gradual rise in corporate funding demand and banks' lending attitudes remaining positive [2] - The central bank is closely monitoring the rising long-term interest rates, which have reached a ten-year high, and is prepared to take flexible measures to stabilize the bond market [1][2] Group 3: Inflation and Price Dynamics - Companies are increasingly raising prices not only to pass on raw material costs but also to cover rising labor costs, which is a significant factor for the central bank to monitor [3] - The upcoming April period is critical for price adjustments, but it is not the sole determinant for rate hike timing; various data will be analyzed to assess the sustainability of current trends in prices and wages [3][4] Group 4: Future Rate Hike Considerations - The central bank will evaluate the actual impact of previous rate hikes on corporate investment, overall investment, and consumer spending, as well as the subsequent effects on inflation, which requires a considerable amount of time [4] - The decision-making process for future rate hikes will involve a comprehensive assessment of economic data and signals, with a focus on the marginal changes in the financial environment and high-frequency surveys of businesses [4]

该行周五宣布维持政策利率在0.75%，符合所有受访经济学家的预期。该行将继续评估上月加息的影 响，并等待可能影响国家支出计划的提前选举结果。这使得借贷成本维持在三十年来的最高水平。 在最新季度展望中，该行上调了六项通胀预测中的四项，并重申若展望实现将提高借贷成本。政策委员 会成员高田创投票支持加息，凸显他对通胀趋势强劲的担忧，其余委员则支持按兵不动。 "从上调通胀展望来看，我认为近期日元贬值正在产生影响，我预计加息路径将继续推进，"S&P Global Market Intelligence经济学家Harumi Taguchi表示。 日本央行维持基准利率不变，上调通胀展望，为下次加息可能比原本预期的夏季更早到来留下了空间。 该行周五宣布维持政策利率在0.75%，符合所有受访经济学家的预期。该行将继续评估上月加息的影 响，并等待可能影响国家支出计划的提前选举结果。这使得借贷成本维持在三十年来的最高水平。 在最新季度展望中，该行上调了六项通胀预测中的四项，并重申若展望实现将提高借贷成本。政策委员 会成员高田创投票支持加息，凸显他对通胀趋势强劲的担忧，其余委员则支持按兵不动。 "从上调通胀展望来看，我认为近期日元贬 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its medium- to long-term inflation forecasts, indicating a more optimistic assessment of price pressures [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, stated that underlying inflation is expected to continue rising moderately, and if the economic situation develops as anticipated, the bank will continue to raise interest rates [1] - BOJ members Takeda and Tamura proposed modifying the wording of the outlook report, but their proposal was voted down [1] - Ueda noted that the financial environment remains accommodative following the December rate hike, and the effects of the rate increase on the real economy and prices will take time to materialize [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that inflation is unlikely to significantly exceed the latest forecasts, with overall inflation likely to fall below the 2% target as potential inflation approaches 2% [2] - The BOJ will closely monitor even minor fluctuations in exchange rates and will collaborate with the government to communicate its stance on interest rate hikes [2] - Ueda indicated that the timing of potential rate hikes will consider price changes in April, but this is just one factor in policy decisions [2] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market - The yen continued to weaken during the press conference, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 159 for the first time since January 14 [3] - Ueda mentioned that the BOJ may conduct bond operations flexibly under special circumstances to encourage stable yield formation, particularly due to instability in the supply and demand of long-term Japanese government bonds influenced by fiscal year-end factors [1][2]

日本央行维持利率不变后，日元延续跌势，策略师们普遍认为央行释放的鹰派信号力度不足以扭转日元疲软态势。市场焦点已转向4月可能的加息 行动，但在美联储会议前，投资者对日元的观望情绪浓厚。 1月23日，日本央行如期维持基准利率在三十年高位不变，决议公布后日元对美元一度跌0.2%至158.74。央行正在评估上月加息对经济的影响。 决议略显鹰派，日元仍承压 日本央行此次维持利率不变符合市场预期，但决议声明的细节变化引发策略师们对政策走向的解读。 汇丰控股首席亚洲经济学家Frederic Neumann表示，日央行上调通胀预测暗示官员立场的鹰派倾斜。通过提高通胀预期，货币政策官员表达了对物 价前景的更大信心，这反过来应会强化进一步加息的理由。他指出，日本债券市场和汇率将受益于更强的货币政策锚定，日央行的鹰派倾斜将大 大有助于遏制波动性。 野村证券外汇策略师Yujiro Goto认为，日央行货币政策会议的沟通方式意在传递对4月加息的意识。在此次会议前，市场已完全消化了7月前的加 息预期。尽管决议显示鹰派，但在新闻发布会前，日元贬值压力仍在酝酿。 Minato Bank策略师Shogo Karitani指出，声明中增加了汇率 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 布雷曼发表讲话的几个小时前，数据显示通胀率意外加速至3.1%，突破了新西兰联储1-3%的目标区 间，促使经济学家预测今年第三或第四季度将开始收紧货币政策。 布雷曼去年曾表示，市场对2026年加息的预期过于乐观，并指出新西兰联储11月份的预测显示，官方现 金利率在一段时间内不会发生变化。 新华财经北京1月23日电新西兰联储主席布雷曼拒绝反驳市场对今年加息的预期，这与她几周前发表的 评论语气截然不同。 "我不会就市场定价发表那样的评论，"布雷曼表示，"关键在于，我们在2月份制定政策时，会综合考虑 所有即将公布的数据。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged is not surprising, but the outlook report indicates a strengthening hawkish stance with upgraded economic growth and inflation expectations for the coming years [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged following a rate hike in December last year, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The central bank's outlook report suggests a more hawkish position, with officials raising their economic growth forecasts for the next year [1] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The Bank of Japan has slightly increased its inflation expectations for the next few years, indicating a shift in monetary policy outlook [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors are seeking clearer guidance on future policy interest rates due to ongoing pressures in the bond market and currency [1] - The upcoming press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is anticipated to be more significant, with expectations of a hawkish tone that may suggest further rate hikes in future meetings [1] Group 4: Diverging Opinions - There appears to be a tendency towards a more hawkish stance within the Bank of Japan's board, as indicated by a dissenting opinion during the recent meeting, suggesting that the possibility of further rate hikes remains [1]