Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing weakness in industrial production and real estate transactions in China, with various sectors showing signs of decline or stagnation in activity levels. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with a notable decline in the operating rates of blast furnaces [4][5] - The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products has also decreased [5] - In the petrochemical sector, there is a marginal improvement in operating rates for certain products, while downstream consumption remains relatively weak [8][12] Group 2: Construction Industry - The cement industry shows stable production and a slight increase in prices, with the national grinding operating rate remaining steady [15][19] - Cement shipment rates have slightly declined, and the inventory ratio continues to decrease [15][20] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The national average daily transaction area for commercial housing remains low, with significant declines in transactions across different city tiers [29][31] - The transaction volume in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown varying degrees of weakness [29][31] Group 4: Demand and Consumption - Freight volumes have decreased, but port cargo throughput remains higher than the same period last year [34] - Passenger traffic remains high, with flight operations slightly above last year's levels [38] - Movie attendance and box office revenues are significantly higher than in previous years, while automobile sales have seen a decline [42][45] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally increased, with notable rises in fruits, vegetables, and eggs, while pork prices have slightly decreased [55][58] - Industrial product prices have shown a significant decline, particularly in energy and chemical sectors [60][62]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the market has misunderstood the concept of "deposit migration," highlighting three main misconceptions regarding excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [2][9]. Group 1: Misunderstanding Excess Savings - The discussion around "deposit migration" often equates a decrease in deposits with an increase in market investments, overlooking the role of wealth management products [3][10]. - The constructed comprehensive savings indicator shows that excess savings are significantly larger than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 29.8% savings rate, the highest in 15 years [3][26]. - Historical analysis indicates that potential market entry from excess savings could exceed one trillion yuan, with past bull markets showing substantial amounts of savings entering the stock market [4][31]. Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The reliance on "non-bank deposits" to track migration is flawed, as it includes interbank business disturbances, leading to an underestimation of the speed at which residents are entering the market [5][34]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" metric provides a more accurate reflection of market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024, suggesting a potential addition of 8,000 billion yuan to securities trading margin [5][37]. - Auxiliary indicators, such as margin deposits and financing balances, indicate a notable "deposit migration" phenomenon, with significant increases in both metrics since mid-2024 [6][41]. Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, excess savings in China since 2021 have shown a stronger investment characteristic, primarily influenced by changes in asset allocation rather than direct consumption support [7][49]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has been a major contributor to excess savings, with a significant decline in housing consumption from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025 [7][53]. - The current environment of declining fixed-income asset yields is pushing residents to seek new investment opportunities, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation behavior [7][63].

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The scale of excess savings is underestimated; excess savings exceed excess deposits, with a potential market entry scale of over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][33] - The current household savings rate has reached a 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][33] - The market's calculation of excess savings based on deposits alone (approximately 3.7 trillion yuan) ignores the impact of wealth management products[2][30] Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations of household funds entering the market, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][38] - Non-bank deposits amount to 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market (settlement margin) are only 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy[4][39] - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing substantial increases since September 2024[4][41] Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][59] - The reduction in housing expenditure has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][59] - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, indicating a pressing need for asset reallocation among residents[6][64]

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The market underestimates the scale of excess savings, which is greater than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][34]. - The household savings rate has reached a near 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][34]. - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed 1 trillion yuan, based on historical experiences from previous bull markets[3][38]. Group 2: Misunderstandings about Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][42]. - Non-bank deposits total approximately 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market are only about 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a mismatch in tracking methods[4][42]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024[4][44]. Group 3: Misunderstandings about Investment Attributes - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][63]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][63]. - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, suggesting a greater urgency for asset reallocation among residents[6][69].

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, marking a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points from October. This indicates that consumption growth has slowed for six consecutive months [1] - The spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics attributed the slowdown in growth to a high base from the previous year, but noted that the cumulative growth of retail sales this year is better than last year. The market sales continue to expand, with rapid growth in service consumption and the rise of new consumption [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is implementing a plan to promote high-quality development in the service outsourcing sector, aiming to cultivate internationally competitive leading enterprises and establish innovation-driven service outsourcing clusters by 2030 [7] - The plan emphasizes the digitalization, intelligence, greening, and integration of service outsourcing, which is expected to significantly increase employment [7] Group 3 - Ford announced a reduction in its electric vehicle business, expecting to incur approximately $19.5 billion in special project expenses and halting production of the electric version of the F-150 pickup truck. This adjustment is part of Ford's ongoing transformation strategy [23][24] - The strategy, known as "Ford+", was initially launched in 2021 as an electric vehicle expansion plan but has undergone multiple adjustments since then [24] Group 4 - The Shanghai Arbitration Commission is set to introduce new arbitration rules for securities and futures, marking a significant development in the establishment of the Shanghai Securities and Futures Arbitration Center [11] - This new set of rules is expected to enhance the arbitration process within the financial markets in Shanghai [11]

2025.12. 15 在不少机构人士看来，明年"存款搬家"还将持续演绎。"趋势是不可逆转的，关键是流向哪里，这是 大家密切关注的。"一位理财行业人士对第一财经表示。 前11个月非银存款同比多增9800亿 今年以来，在存款利率下行、固收回报下降、A股赚钱效应显现等综合背景下，"存款搬家"的关注度 持续升温。在此叙事逻辑中，居民存款"非银化"趋势受到持续关注。 临近年末，非银存款增长波动意味着什么？多数机构分析认为，居民"存款搬家"节奏暂缓，主要与 资本市场活跃度回落有关。 "非银存款波动是资本市场情绪的结果而非原因，预计后续还会延续高波动。"招商证券银行业首席 分析师王先爽分析称，10月非银存款经历9月大幅萎缩后恢复高增，主要缘于银行季末冲（居民和企 业）存款导致理财和保证金存款的波动，也侧面说明非银存款本身就是高波动项。 本文字数：2127，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 央行披露的最新金融数据显示，11月人民币存款增速显著放缓，居民、企业、财政及非银存款全面 同比少增。其中，非银存款仅增加800亿元，同比少增1000亿元，继9月之后再度出现同比少增。 在受访人士看来，在存款向股市"搬家"这一 ...

11月非银存款再度同比少增，"存款搬家"偃旗息鼓了吗？ 央行披露的最新金融数据显示，11月人民币存款增速显著放缓，居民、企业、财政及非银存款全面同比少增。其 中，非银存款仅增加800亿元，同比少增1000亿元，继9月之后再度出现同比少增。 在受访人士看来，在存款向股市"搬家"这一趋势假设下，非银存款的波动是资本市场波动的结果，预计后续还将 延续高波动趋势。另有机构数据显示，明年居民存款到期规模超过170万亿元，较今年又将多出近20万亿元。其 中，2年期以上定存的到期规模在32万亿元左右。 据中金公司测算，今年前10个月，居民定期存款规模累计增长10.5万亿元，比2023年少增了3.9万亿元；年初以 来，居民活期存款、银行理财、非货币基金分别增长了0.9万亿元、3.6万亿元、2.7万亿元，较2023年同期分别多 增1.6万亿元、4万亿元、2.6万亿元。相比2023年，今年前10个月非银存款多增了6万亿元。 "如果非银存款增速较居民存款抬升，意味着居民在资产配置上将存款转化为金融资产，对应其风险偏好有所抬 升；从历史经验来看，非银居民存款剪刀差同步于A股成交金额占A股总市值的比重，且非银存款增长规模与A股 的成交 ...

理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.12.10 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。本篇报告我们基于存款搬家、居民风偏、产品货架、监管导 向、资产配置等多维度进行拆解 ...

1.2 银行理财机构规模结构 根据 Wind收录的银行理财定期披露数据， 头部机构产品布局分化显著，呈现"固收为主、特色补充"的特 点： ● 固收+型 ：规模16.23万亿元，环比增长0.49%，连续4个月稳步上升，占比超50%，反映理财机构通 过"固收+"策略增强收益的核心定位； ● 纯债固收型 ：规模4.45万亿元，环比微增0.35%，增速放缓，主要受债券市场信用利差收窄、性价比下 降影响； ● 现金管理型 ：规模6.24万亿元，环比增长0.30%，增速趋稳，仍是居民流动性管理的重要工具； ● 权益类 ：规模100.94亿元，环比增长13.9%，为年内最大单月增幅，或与部分机构增配含权资产、布局 市场底部机会有关； ● 混合类产品 ：偏债混合、灵活配置混合规模分别为2,461亿元、4,105亿元，环比基本持平，受股市短期 回撤影响，配置节奏相对谨慎。 表：2025年8-11月银行理财产品存续规模（亿元） | 发行机构 | | 固收+型 纯债固收型 | 现金管理型 | | 偏债混合型 灵活配置混合型 | 权益类 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

在盈利视角下，在"反内卷"政策推动下，PPI有望持续回升，企业盈利也将不断修复。综合当前市场预 期，2026年全A非金融归母净利润同比增速预计在10%至14%。在估值端，2026年A股具备较大提升潜 力，叠加流动性宽松及潜在的财政扩张预期，市场整体空间依然乐观。 2025年微观层面的流动性改善为股市注入了重要动能，这一逻辑在2026年的重要性依旧，但资金结构或 将出现变化： 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，产业领域潜在催化因素丰富，流动性重要增量有望来自居民存款搬 家。我们认为，伴随PPI回升，企业盈利将持续修复，A股牛市格局有望延续，市场估值仍具备可观的 提升空间。节奏层面，当前可积极布局以应对可能前置的春季躁动，从中期维度来看，明年上半年将是 较好的行情窗口。 2025年，A股走势大致可划分为两个阶段，核心逻辑均为科技产业引领，叠加政策端与流动性的共振， 其中7至9月居民存款搬家与杠杆资金注入共同推动市场走出一轮主升浪。2026年，产业催化将持续增 多，新质生产力领域"DeepSeek时刻"有望持续涌现，新兴产业景气度将延续，与此同时货币宽松环境大 概率维持，增量流动性值得期待。 从当前存款市场格局 ...