Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in maturing fixed-term deposits has led to a significant shift in investment preferences, with insurance products and bank wealth management becoming popular choices for reallocating funds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Insurance Products - Insurance has become a favored option for long-term savings, with five-year dividend insurance being particularly popular among clients, leading to substantial purchases in the millions [2][4]. - The volume of high-value insurance policies has increased, with reports of a 300 million yuan dividend insurance policy being signed recently [2][3]. - The acceptance of insurance products has risen as bank interest rates decline, with many clients in smaller cities opting for policies worth hundreds of thousands to millions [3][4]. Group 2: Bank Wealth Management - Bank wealth management products are also gaining traction as an alternative to traditional fixed-term deposits, with younger clients preferring fixed-income investments that offer better returns than deposits [5]. - Older clients tend to favor shorter-term deposits or wealth management products rather than long-term fixed deposits [5]. - Despite the low-interest environment, a significant portion of deposits is expected to remain in the banking system, with a historical tendency for over 90% of deposits to stay within banks [5][6]. Group 3: Investment in Precious Metals - A notable trend among risk-seeking depositors, referred to as "deposit special forces," is the shift towards investing in gold and silver after their fixed-term deposits mature [7][8]. - Many investors are actively trading in precious metals, with reports of substantial profits from buying and selling gold and silver [8][9]. - The enthusiasm for precious metals is reflected in the growing number of new accounts in the stock market, particularly among younger investors [10]. Group 4: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The overall sentiment among residents indicates a strong inclination towards preventive savings, with a significant increase in household deposits since 2019 [6]. - The investment landscape is shifting from a singular focus on savings to a more diversified approach that includes various financial instruments, reflecting a marginal increase in risk appetite among residents [6][10]. - The younger demographic, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, is becoming a driving force in the growth of personal investment accounts, indicating a shift in investment behavior [10].

编辑｜方海平 21世纪经济报道记者独家获得的一份银行理财代销规模数据显示， 2025年12月，11家全国性 银行代销理财规模13.46万亿元，较11月下降1.05%，较年初增长10%。 从年末两个月的数据 来看，银行理财仍然呈现"季末收缩"特征。从全年数据来看，理财规模增长背后"存款搬家"逻 辑仍然较强。 其中，邮储银行增势强劲，全年增幅达27.2%，增速在统计内的11家银行中居于首位，且断层 式领先， 增速第二的是冠有"零售之王"之称的招商银行，其较年初增长12.2%。业内人士分 析，发力广泛且下沉的渠道、战略重心转向"产品配置"等或成大幅增长的关键。 从绝对代销规模上来看，2025年12月，招商银行以4.41万亿元的规模独占鳌头；第二梯队，中 信、兴业、邮储、交行、民生规模也在万亿以上，其中中信、兴业分别达到1.5万亿、1.3万亿 的量级，另外三家均在1万亿级别；浦发、光大、平安三家规模接近万亿，分别在8000万到 9300万水平；华夏、广发规模较低，分别为3400万及1600万左右。 11家银行理财代销座次较年初相对稳定，仅邮储银行实现"飞升" ，超越交行、民生、浦发， 由年初的第7位升至年末的第4位。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the scale of bank wealth management sales, with a total of 13.46 trillion yuan by December 2025, down 1.05% from November but up 10% from the beginning of the year [1][7] - Postal Savings Bank showed remarkable growth, leading with a 27.2% increase, while China Merchants Bank followed with a 12.2% increase [1][5] - The overall growth in wealth management sales is attributed to a "deposit migration" trend, where customers are shifting their funds into wealth management products [7][10] Group 1: Bank Performance - By December 2025, China Merchants Bank led with a wealth management sales scale of 4.41 trillion yuan, followed by CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank, both exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2] - Postal Savings Bank's rise in ranking from 7th to 4th among the 11 banks indicates a significant shift in market dynamics [2][4] - The total growth in wealth management sales among the 11 banks amounted to 1.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10% [7][6] Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The growth of Postal Savings Bank's wealth management sales is linked to strategic reforms and an expansion of distribution channels, with approximately 40,000 outlets enhancing customer reach [5][6] - The shift in focus from "product sales" to "product configuration" aims to cater to high-net-worth clients, which is seen as a crucial strategy for growth [5][10] - The demand for stable, low-volatility wealth management products remains strong, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, driving customer interest [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends - The report notes a seasonal pattern in bank wealth management, characterized by "quarter-end contraction" and "quarter-beginning recovery," influenced by regulatory requirements [8][10] - Despite a slight contraction in December, the overall wealth management scale showed resilience, indicating strong underlying demand [8][9] - Predictions suggest that the wealth management scale could reach approximately 38 trillion yuan by the end of 2026, with a projected growth rate of around 12% [12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that by December 2025, the wealth management distribution scale of 11 national banks reached 13.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.05% from November but a 10% increase from the beginning of the year [1] - The growth in wealth management scale is largely driven by the "deposit migration" phenomenon, where customers are shifting their funds from traditional deposits to wealth management products [1][10] - Postal Savings Bank showed remarkable growth with a 27.2% increase, leading among the 11 banks, while China Merchants Bank followed with a 12.2% increase [1][6] Bank Performance - By December 2025, China Merchants Bank led with a wealth management distribution scale of 4.41 trillion yuan, followed by CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank with 1.5 trillion and 1.3 trillion yuan respectively [1] - The ranking of the 11 banks remained relatively stable, with Postal Savings Bank rising from 7th to 4th place by year-end [2] - The overall wealth management distribution scale of the 11 banks grew by 1.22 trillion yuan throughout the year, with a 10% year-on-year increase [8] Factors Driving Growth - The significant growth of Postal Savings Bank's wealth management distribution is attributed to its strategic reforms and expansion of distribution channels, which have broadened its retail business volume [6][7] - The bank's extensive network of approximately 40,000 outlets and a strong customer base have made low-volatility wealth management products attractive alternatives to traditional deposits [6] - The shift in focus from "product sales" to "product configuration" has allowed banks to better serve high-net-worth clients, enhancing their wealth management offerings [7] Market Trends - The average yield of wealth management products fell below 2% for the first time, recorded at 1.98%, yet the number of investors holding these products increased by 14.37% year-on-year [10] - The "deposit migration" narrative remains strong, with banks focusing on deeper market penetration and optimizing customer service to attract more clients [11] - The wealth management market is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a potential scale of 38 trillion yuan by the end of 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of around 12% [12]

Core Insights - The total scale of wealth management products sold by 11 national banks reached 13.46 trillion yuan by December 2025, showing a decrease of 1.05% from November but a growth of 10% compared to the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Trends - The data indicates a "quarter-end contraction" characteristic in the wealth management sector during the last two months of the year [1] - The growth in wealth management scale is largely driven by the "deposit migration" logic, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior towards wealth management products [1] Group 2: Bank Performance - Postal Savings Bank exhibited a strong growth rate of 27.2% for the year, leading among the 11 banks in the study [1] - China Merchants Bank, known as the "king of retail," recorded a growth of 12.2% from the beginning of the year, placing it second in growth rate [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Analysts suggest that the key to significant growth for these banks lies in their extensive and down-market channels, as well as a strategic shift towards "product allocation" [1]

巨量存款今年迎来到期潮，点燃市场对"存款搬家"的讨论。 根据多家券商机构推算，2026年定期存款到期规模为数十万亿元。同时，银行定期存款利率已经过多轮 下调，5年期大额存单大面积下架，3年期大额存单利率普遍降至"1"字头。 在存款续作之外，"收益温差"让一些储户产生"存款搬家"意愿。记者在调研中获悉，"存款搬家"主要去 向是"类存款"低风险资产，如保险、理财产品、货币基金等。 在不少银行网点，如果储户可接受资金中长期锁定，保险被大力推荐。同时，险企将"存款搬家"的储户 作为潜在客群，一些险企打起"大额存单平替"招牌，在"开门红"期间大卖分红险。 不过，在"存款搬家"到保险前，投资者还需搞清不同产品的风险收益特征，做到有备而"投"。 Q 存款和保险有啥区别？ A A 记者了解到，对于资金闲置周期较长的客户，银行理财经理推荐保险产品作为存款替代，成为一种较为 普遍的策略。 在银行的业务体系中，代销保险是一项重要的"中间业务"。对于保险公司来说，银保渠道是主力渠道， 特别是近两年，银行与保险公司的合作在深度和广度上均迎来新突破。为留住客户资金、增加中间业务 收入，银行有较大动力推动保险销售。 Q 哪类保险在承接"存 ...

该行指出，国寿目前估值相当于未来于12个股价对内含价值0.5倍及市账率1.22倍，估值具吸引力，重申 其为内地存款"搬家"及股市上涨趋势的主要受益者。 该行分析，中国人寿2025年新业务价值预计增长35%，但对比前九个月42%的增速，去年第四季度增长 动能有所减弱。这主要由于部分需求已在8月底定价利率下调前提前释放，同时部分省级分公司在达成 全年目标后，优先为2026年开门红销售进行准备。瑞银认为，相关准备工作将推动公司于1月份实现强 劲的新业务增长，尤其在银行保险渠道方面表现值得期待。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，将中国人寿(02628)目标价从29港元大幅上调至42港元，维持"买 入"评级。此次上调主要基于三大理由：新业务价值增长前景改善、宏观条件有利带动内含价值预测上 调(上调对其寿险业务股价对内含价值预测由0.45倍升至0.6倍)，以及估值基准更新至2026年。 ...

瑞银发表报告，将中国人寿目标价从29港元大幅上调至42港元，维持"买入"评级。此次上调主要基于三 大理由：新业务价值增长前景改善、宏观条件有利带动内含价值预测上调(上调对其寿险业务股价对内 含价值预测由0.45倍升至0.6倍)，以及估值基准更新至2026年。该行指出，国寿目前估值相当于未来于 12个股价对内含价值0.5倍及市账率1.22倍，估值具吸引力，重申其为内地"存款搬家"及股市上涨趋势的 主要受益者。 ...

专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of over 50 trillion yuan in bank fixed deposits, primarily concentrated in the first quarter, is expected to lead to a shift in investment preferences, with a potential decrease in the renewal rate due to declining interest rates [1][2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Investment Behavior - Over 50 trillion yuan in high-interest fixed deposits will mature by 2026, with estimates varying from 59 trillion to 75 trillion yuan [2]. - The renewal rate for maturing deposits is around 90%, but it may decline due to lower interest rates, which are approximately 1 percentage point lower than previous years [5][6]. - Even with a potential decline in renewal rates, a conservative estimate suggests that around 7 trillion yuan could be redirected, possibly increasing to 14 trillion yuan if the renewal rate drops to 80% [5]. Group 2: Shift to Insurance and Other Financial Products - Insurance products, particularly participating whole life insurance, have seen significant sales growth, indicating a shift in investment preferences among depositors [1][7]. - The insurance market is benefiting from a low-interest environment, with products offering guaranteed principal and floating returns becoming more attractive [7]. - Bank wealth management products are also gaining traction, with a net increase of approximately 3.7 trillion yuan in 2025, appealing to low-risk investors [8]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Equity Market Inflows - There is uncertainty regarding whether maturing deposit funds will flow into the equity market, as the primary depositors are risk-averse individuals [9]. - The relationship between new funds entering the stock market and stock price movements is complex, with investment willingness being a key determinant [9]. - Current market narratives around "deposit migration" may not indicate a substantial change in risk appetite but rather a marginal adjustment in asset allocation due to the low-interest environment [9].