汪毅、王小琳、王正洁（汪毅长城证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 摘要 2025年9月15日-9月19日，A股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块表现相 对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息25bp靴子落地后 选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看，我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市场强势的科 技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行之中。 热点一：美联储9月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入9月以来，在美联储公布9月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期，以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9月17日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储2025年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市涨幅过快过 高，短期内部分资金趁着降息25bp利好的兑现而选择了获利了结。 9月美联储会议整体基调偏中性，释放了"预防 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in deposit trends, with a notable outflow from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a growing interest in capital markets and alternative investment products [3][5][9]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, new corporate deposits increased by 299.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.3 billion yuan, while new household deposits were 110 billion yuan, down 600 billion yuan from last year [3]. - In July, the stock of household deposits was approximately 1.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 780 billion yuan [4]. - Non-bank financial institutions, such as brokerages and funds, saw a significant increase in deposits, with non-bank deposits rising by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan [6][8]. Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The outflow of deposits from banks to non-bank institutions suggests a transition of funds into the capital markets, driven by increased market activity [9][10]. - The current trend of deposit migration is characterized by a more rational approach, with funds being directed towards stable investment products rather than high-risk assets [11][12]. - The bank wealth management market has seen a substantial increase, with the total scale exceeding 30 trillion yuan by mid-2025, indicating a shift of funds from traditional deposits to wealth management products [14]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The speed of deposit migration is closely linked to the performance of stock indices, with a notable increase in new account openings in August, reaching approximately 2.65 million, a 35.1% month-on-month increase [19][20]. - The article suggests that the pace of deposit migration will accelerate if stock indices rise rapidly, while a slower increase in indices may dampen this trend [21][22]. - The overall sentiment towards the capital market is directly correlated with market performance, with a strong market encouraging more retail investors to participate [23][24]. Group 4: Long-term Market Perspective - The article posits that the current wave of deposit migration is just the beginning, with expectations of a larger scale of migration compared to previous instances [26]. - The underlying motivation for this migration is a desire for broader market participation in capital gains, rather than benefiting only a select few [27][28]. - The concept of a "slow bull market" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of gradual market entry to avoid significant disparities in profit distribution among investors [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in Chinese residents' investment behavior from traditional savings to diversified financial products, driven by changing wealth management perspectives and declining deposit interest rates [1][3][4] Group 2 - As of June 2025, the scale of the bank wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, marking a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year and a 7.53% year-on-year growth [2] - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 136 million by June 2025, reflecting an 8.37% increase since the start of the year [2] - Public fund assets reached a record high of 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025, marking the fifth consecutive record-breaking milestone this year [2] - The private fund sector also saw growth, with 137,922 funds in existence and a total scale of 20.73 trillion yuan as of August 2025 [2] Group 3 - The trend of "deposit migration" is ongoing, with non-bank institutions seeing an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in deposits in August, indicating a continued shift of funds towards higher-yielding wealth management products [3] - The decline in deposit interest rates is providing long-term growth momentum for the wealth management market and the fund industry, as investors seek better returns [3] - The recent bullish trend in the A-share market, supported by policy measures and improved liquidity, has further enhanced the attractiveness of asset allocation in China [4] - Younger generations are increasingly adopting new investment concepts, focusing on "new three golds" (money market funds, short-term bond funds, and gold funds), reflecting a departure from traditional investment strategies [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights that a significant amount of high-interest fixed deposits made by residents will mature between 2025 and 2026, with a total of 66.54 trillion yuan in fixed deposits added from 2021 to 2024, leading to a peak maturity of 22.28 trillion yuan in 2025 and 9.4 trillion yuan in 2026 [3][9] - In August, there was a notable decrease in bank deposits, with only 110 billion yuan saved compared to a typical 600 billion yuan, indicating a shift of funds from banks to other investments, particularly the stock market, as evidenced by a 7.97% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 24.13% increase in the ChiNext Index [10][11] - The M2-M1 growth rate difference is narrowing, suggesting a transition from "dead money" (fixed deposits) to "live money" (liquid assets), reflecting a recovery in economic activity as businesses and consumers are more willing to invest and spend [12][15] Group 2 - The article suggests that the upcoming maturity of high-interest fixed deposits in 2025 and 2026, combined with a sustained positive performance in the stock market, could enhance liquidity in the stock market as more fixed deposits convert to liquid assets [15]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" among residents and enterprises is increasingly prominent due to the continuous decline in deposit interest rates and the advantages of wealth management products [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - In August, new resident deposits decreased by 600 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling 1.1 trillion yuan, marking two consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 11.8 trillion yuan, up 5.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, highlighting the "seesaw" effect between resident and non-bank deposits [2]. - The trend of asset allocation is reflected in listed companies' preferences for wealth management, with a noticeable decline in the amount spent on wealth management products and cash deposits [2]. Group 2: Decline in Listed Companies' Wealth Management Scale - As of September 26, 2023, 1,095 listed companies held 12,395 wealth management products with a total subscription amount of 779 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.04% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The subscription amount for structured deposits decreased by nearly 100 billion yuan year-on-year, with a decline of 16.78%, while the amount for fixed-term deposits fell by over 150 billion yuan, down 37.29% [4][5]. Group 3: Reasons for Decline in Wealth Management Scale - The decline in wealth management scale is attributed to strict controls on idle funds and the management of bank structured deposit quotas [5]. - The shift in focus towards market-oriented wealth management reflects a reallocation of financial resources in response to the low-interest-rate environment [9][10]. Group 4: Diversification of Wealth Management Structure - Despite the overall decline in wealth management scale, the structure is evolving towards diversification, with an increasing preference for products linked to bonds, equities, and mixed assets [6][10]. - The subscription amount for securities company wealth management products increased by 7.74% year-on-year, while investments in other financial products also saw growth [6]. Group 5: Increased Interest in Direct Securities Investment - Since the A-share market's recovery, over 70 listed companies have announced plans to use idle funds for securities investment, aiming to enhance fund utilization and profitability [11][12]. - The shift towards securities investment is driven by the need for better returns in a low-interest-rate environment, with companies seeking to optimize their asset allocation [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the trend of banks promoting financial products ahead of the National Day holiday to attract investors and ensure their funds generate returns during the holiday period [1][2][6] - Many banks are offering low-risk cash management and fixed-income products that allow investors to earn returns even during the holiday, with specific deadlines for purchases [2][3] - The competition among banks has intensified, with extended purchase hours for financial products, allowing investors to buy until midnight on September 29, 2023, to benefit from holiday earnings [4][5] Group 2 - Financial products launched for the holiday period generally feature low risk and good liquidity, appealing to investors looking for stable returns [2][3] - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident, with funds shifting from traditional bank deposits to financial products, driven by lower interest rates on deposits [6] - Some banks are introducing special products with varying holding periods to cater to different investor needs, indicating a strategic response to changing market conditions [6]

证券ETF(159841)及其联接基金(A:008590,C:008591)跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，最新规模为94.37亿 元，一键打包优质上市券商，其中近6成仓位集中于十大龙头券商，另外4成仓位兼顾中小券商的业绩高 弹性，是9·24行情爆发以来的"牛市旗手"的代表，2024年9月24日-10月8日，累计涨幅超50%。 在两融余额攀升至2.4万亿的历史高位、A股成交额维持日均1.6万亿元成交，叠加流动性宽松的情况 下，7、8月居民存款连续两个月同比少增，非银存款连续两月同比多增，或与存款搬家进入股市有关。 随着8月A股新开户数持续高增，证券板块依旧受益于股市活跃。 消息面上，央行三季度例会指出，用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常 态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。 今日A股的证券板块大爆发，国盛金控涨停创历史新高，华泰证券涨停，广发证券涨超9%，带动证券 ETF（159841）涨5.33%。 作为"9·24"反弹先锋的证券板块，近期表现持续低迷，证券ETF（159841）自高点回撤逾10%，而资金 坚定博弈底部反弹机遇，"越跌越买"态势不减，已连续25个交易日净流入，净流入额高达3 ...

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote recovery [10][11] - The expected GDP growth for the third quarter is between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters. If the growth rate for the fourth quarter exceeds 4.5%, the annual target of around 5.0% can be achieved [10][11] - The report anticipates that the new policies will focus on four areas: early use of debt limits, introduction of new policy financial tools, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to consumption policies to stimulate demand [10][11] Fixed Income - The issuance of the Jin 25 convertible bond is set at a total scale of 2 billion yuan, with net proceeds allocated for the Zambia Lubanbi copper mine project and related operational and capital expenditures. The bond has a maturity of six years and a yield to maturity of 2.46% [20] Industry Analysis - The insurance industry showed strong growth in life insurance premiums in August, while non-auto property insurance faced short-term pressure. The valuation of insurance stocks remains low, with expected PEV ratios between 0.57 and 0.85 and PB ratios between 1.02 and 2.16 for 2025, indicating significant upside potential [7] - The report highlights that the demand for savings remains robust, and with ongoing regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure on interest margins [7] Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the rise of independent energy storage in China, with significant demand growth expected in both domestic and international markets. The ongoing shortage of energy storage cells is projected to continue until the second half of 2026, with price increases anticipated [8] - Key companies recommended for investment in the energy storage sector include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, among others, due to their competitive advantages and profit growth potential [8]

Group 1: Market Insights - The combination of "low deposit rates + high investment returns" is insufficient to attract residents' deposits into the market from both relative and absolute return perspectives[2] - China's excess savings are approximately zero, contrasting with the large excess deposits seen in other markets[3] - The increase in savings rate and decrease in deposit proportion reflect a change in risk preference among residents[4] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The current A-share market rally is more akin to an "emotional bull market" driven by increased risk appetite rather than a substantial influx of resident deposits[4] - For A-shares to reach new highs, a recovery in earnings is necessary to solidify optimistic sentiment and transition into a "slow bull" market[4] - The expectation of a significant influx of resident deposits into the market lacks triggering conditions in the short term[4] Group 3: Financial Data Analysis - In July, resident deposits decreased by approximately 1.1 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year reduction of about 780 billion yuan, raising market concerns[21] - The decrease in resident deposits was primarily due to a 92% contribution from a decline in demand deposits, while time deposits only decreased by 85 billion yuan[21] - In August, resident deposits increased by about 110 billion yuan, indicating a lack of large-scale market entry from deposits[22]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in deposit trends, with a notable outflow from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a potential change in investment behavior among residents and enterprises [9][10][12]. Group 1: Deposit Data Analysis - In August, new corporate deposits increased by 299.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.3 billion yuan, while new household deposits were 110 billion yuan, down 600 billion yuan compared to last year [3]. - In July, the stock of household deposits was approximately 1.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 780 billion yuan [4]. - Non-bank financial institutions, such as brokerages and funds, saw a significant increase in deposits, with non-bank deposits rising by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan [6][8]. Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The outflow of deposits from banks to non-bank institutions suggests that capital is being redirected towards the capital markets, indicating a "deposit migration" trend [9][10]. - This migration is characterized by a more rational approach, with funds moving towards stable financial products rather than high-risk investments [12][14]. - The rise in popularity of relatively fixed-income financial products indicates a cautious risk appetite among residents [14]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The speed of deposit migration is closely linked to the performance of stock indices, with a notable increase in new account openings in August, driven by a strong upward trend in the stock market [19][20]. - The article suggests that the current phase of deposit migration is just the beginning, with the potential for accelerated movement if stock indices continue to rise rapidly [26][28]. - The overall sentiment towards the capital market is directly correlated with market performance, influencing the pace at which retail investors enter the market [23][25].