一边是增长疲弱和失业率上升，另一边是显著高于目标的通胀，英国央行面临两难抉择。 当地时间7日（周四），英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%。这是英国央行本轮降息周期开 启以来第五次降息，英国利率已降至两年多来最低水平。 决议公布后，英镑对美元短线拉升约40点至1.3409，英国两年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至3.892%， 英国富时100指数维持跌势，下跌0.71%。 此次降息符合此前金融市场预期。分析人士指出，英国央行意在应对经济放缓和就业转弱的压力，同时 继续监控仍高于目标的通胀水平，在支持增长与抑制通胀之间寻求微妙平衡。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，GTC集团首席分析师贾米尔·艾哈迈德（Jameel Ahmad）表示，尽管英国 通胀回升至3.6%，远高于英国央行长期设定的2%目标，但英国央行本月降息其实并不令人意外，由于 全球因素和国内情绪，英国经济动能持续显现疲软迹象。 连投两次，是什么让MPC分裂 此次议息会议出现了"三方分歧"的投票局面，有报道称这也是英国央行货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee，MPC）史上首次被迫进行两次投票。MPC有9名委员，针对利率决 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is increasingly leaning towards interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September approaching 100% probability [1][2][3] - Recent economic data, particularly the weak non-farm payrolls report for July, has weakened the narrative of a robust economy, prompting a shift in the Fed's stance [2][3] - The internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become more apparent, with two dissenting votes in the July meeting marking a significant shift in the committee's dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. economy's underlying strength are growing, with signs of a weakening labor market and slowing consumer spending, particularly in the manufacturing and service sectors [3][4] - The upcoming inflation and employment data releases will be critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts [4][8] - Market sentiment is heavily leaning towards the expectation of rate cuts, with discussions even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction [4][9] Group 3 - The stock market has reacted positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with major indices rebounding over 1% [5] - However, there are concerns that the stock market may be entering a bubble territory, with warnings about potential overvaluation and cautious behavior from corporate executives [6][7] - The risk of a recession looms, as indicators suggest a weakening economy, which could negatively impact the stock market despite the favorable conditions created by potential rate cuts [7][10] Group 4 - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is becoming increasingly challenging, as inflation pressures and labor market weaknesses coexist [8][9] - The Fed's current approach is to prioritize avoiding significant policy missteps over precise timing of actions, indicating a cautious and reactive stance [11]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump will participate in a live interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss key economic issues, which may lead to market volatility [1] Group 1 - The interview is scheduled for 20:00 Beijing time [1] - Topics of discussion will include the economy, employment, the Federal Reserve, and tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The interview with President Trump on CNBC's "Squawk Box" will cover topics such as the economy, employment, the Federal Reserve, and tariffs [1]

周一（8月4日）现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3357美元/盎司附近，在当前的市场格局中，美元出现反弹态势，对黄金价格形成了 明显的压制作用； 现在盘面上来看，在非农数据影响下，金价拉涨以后的力度明显不足，现在虽然是在高位交投，但是很明显有回落的需求，欧盘的 主要关注点就是早盘下探的低点3345能否下破，若这个短期支撑失守，那么后市（至少是到周三美盘）我们的策略都是等待反弹去 布局空单为主。下方支撑还是延续上周五分析中3330与3306的两个位置附近，短期支撑是早盘的3345这里，有效下破才能持续下 看；上方阻力位可关注今日开盘走高3368的位置，其次是3374上周五分析的地方； 具体操作思路：有参考上周五的3363做空的可看3345位置能否下破；空仓的可等待3363附近再去布空看跌，保护3374，目标下看 3345附近；短线方面是建议在45附近止盈，有破位动作后等待金价反弹3352附近再介入空单下看，中线可减半仓看持续看金价向下 运行是否能到3330位置后去看阶梯目标。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球 稳健的交易系统在这里，对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding monetary policy direction, particularly in light of recent weak employment data and differing opinions on the need for interest rate cuts [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The July non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with a substantial downward revision of 258,000 for May and June combined, indicating a weakening labor market [1]. - New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack described the labor market as still robust, characterizing the recent data as a mild cooling rather than a concerning deterioration [1][2]. - Williams emphasized that broader indicators, such as job vacancies and initial unemployment claims, suggest a balanced state of slow hiring and slow layoffs [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed their dissenting views before the non-farm data release, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, arguing that waiting poses risks to the economy [1][4]. - This marks the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors have publicly issued dissenting statements simultaneously, highlighting unprecedented policy disagreements within the Fed [5]. - Waller criticized the cautious approach, suggesting it fails to adequately balance risks and could lead to policy lagging behind economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Williams expressed greater concern over inflation, noting that core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][3]. - Both Williams and Hammack acknowledged the need for the Fed to ensure inflation expectations remain low and stable, indicating ongoing challenges in managing inflation [2][3]. Group 4: Challenges for Powell - The public division within the Fed complicates the task for Chair Powell in achieving consensus at the upcoming September meeting, especially amid ongoing criticism from former President Trump [6]. - Williams noted the natural occurrence of differing views given the high uncertainty surrounding trade, immigration, and fiscal policies [6]. - Even among the nine officials who supported maintaining rates in July, there were differing concerns regarding the labor market versus the inflation outlook, further complicating consensus-building efforts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that inflation remains further from the target compared to employment levels [1] Group 1 - Bostic emphasizes that the current inflation situation is a greater concern than employment metrics [1] - The Fed's focus may shift towards addressing inflation as it is not yet aligned with the target [1] - Employment data appears to be more stable, while inflation continues to pose challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, is maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate cuts despite signs of economic slowdown, emphasizing that policy adjustments will not occur until inflation convincingly returns to the 2% target [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Powell describes the current monetary policy as "moderately restrictive," indicating comfort with the existing federal funds rate target range of 4.25% to 4.5% [2] - The Fed's cautious approach sets a high bar for any potential rate cuts, relying on upcoming employment and inflation data to assess risks [2][5] - The Fed believes the current interest rate effectively curbs inflation without excessively hindering economic growth, suggesting a balanced approach [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic growth is projected to slow, with GDP growth expected to drop to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [2] - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, providing the Fed with confidence to maintain its current policy stance [2][5] - Powell acknowledges the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, which adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook [2][3] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Balance - The Fed is focused on ensuring that temporary price increases from tariffs do not lead to persistent inflation issues, reflecting its commitment to price stability [3] - Powell introduces the concept of "efficiency" in rate cuts, warning that premature cuts could trigger inflation rebounds while delayed cuts might harm the labor market [3][4] - The Fed is navigating a complex balance between maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, prioritizing inflation control even at the cost of further economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming employment and inflation data will be critical in determining the Fed's next steps, with the potential for the "moderately restrictive" policy to remain in place longer if inflation does not decrease as desired [5][6] - Higher borrowing costs are expected to persist for businesses and consumers, continuing to exert pressure on economic growth [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with two voting members supporting a 25 basis point reduction during the recent FOMC meeting [2][3] - The U.S. inflation data shows a mild decline, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-on-month in June, and the year-on-year inflation rate increasing to 2.7% [2][3] - The U.S. job market indicates a "slowdown but stability," with 147,000 new jobs added in June, slightly above market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [3] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating around $118,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is trading between $3,600 and $3,800, as investors await clearer catalysts for market movement [2][4] - The White House released a 163-page cryptocurrency policy report, supporting stablecoin legislation and a regulatory framework for DeFi, which aims to enhance on-chain transparency [4][5] - The report has received positive feedback from major trading platforms and compliance institutions, indicating a potential institutional interest in the digital asset ecosystem [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - Despite the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the new cryptocurrency policy report, the market remains cautious, with BTC and ETH continuing to trade within key ranges [7] - Ethereum has shown strong performance in July, with prices rising over 50%, but faces significant resistance in the $3,800 to $4,000 range [6] - The altcoin market is experiencing differentiation, with the Altcoin Season Index dropping from 55 to 38, indicating that only about 38% of the top 100 altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin [6][7]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time in 2025[3] - Powell did not indicate a rate cut in September, emphasizing that inflation remains above target while employment is at target levels[3] - The assessment of economic activity was downgraded from "continuing to expand at a steady pace" to "economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year"[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell noted that the inflation caused by tariffs is still in its early stages, with evidence showing that exporters are not absorbing the costs, but rather businesses and retailers are[4] - The potential for inflation to rise due to tariffs is being closely monitored, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is described as robust, with recent data showing a decline in weekly initial jobless claims to a 14-week low[5] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to stimulate both supply and demand in the economy, potentially leading to a tighter labor market and upward pressure on wages and inflation[5] Economic Outlook - The combination of tax cuts and tariff agreements is likely to support economic growth and limit the Fed's ability to implement significant rate cuts in the near term[5] - The recent tax cuts include substantial individual tax reductions for middle and upper-income groups, which are expected to boost consumer spending[5] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk that the pace and magnitude of potential Fed rate cuts may be slower than anticipated[6]