能源日报 | 2025-05-07 中美同意就经贸问题接触，油价大幅反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.96美元，收于每桶59.09美元，涨幅为3.43%；7月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.92美元，收于每桶62.15美元，涨幅为3.19%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.77%，报466元/ 桶。 2、哈萨克斯坦正在考虑遵守该国的欧佩克+减产义务的选项，此前沙特重申让配额作弊者遵守规定。"哈萨克斯坦 一直致力于欧佩克+协议，"该国能源部表示。这个中亚最大的石油生产国"正在考虑履行承诺的所有可能选择"。 自5月3日欧佩克+再次决定超预期增产以来，油价出现下跌，包括高盛集团在内的投行纷纷下调油价预期。欧佩克 领导者沙特在会议上警告称，该组织生产过剩的成员国应采取行动，否则将面临进一步增产。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、欧盟委员会将提出一项针对莫斯科影子油轮船队的新制裁方案，正试图就俄乌冲突向俄罗斯施加更大压力。欧 盟委员会提议的制裁将涵盖60个个人和实体，并包括对约150艘船只的限制，这将使清单上的船舶总数超过300艘。 欧盟各国外长的目标是在5月20日布鲁塞尔会议 ...

"五一"假期期间，国际油价持续下挫。 5月5日，国际油价重挫。WTI原油期货主力合约收跌1.99%，报57.13美元/桶；布伦特原油期货主力 合约收跌1.73%，报60.23美元/桶。假期期间，WTI原油期货主力合约累计下跌4.1%，布伦特原油期货 主力合约累计下跌3.6%。 5月6日，美、布两油短线走高。截至记者发稿，布伦特原油站上61美元/桶，WTI原油站上58美元/ 桶。 那么，原油在假期期间缘何大幅下跌？ 对此，南华期货分析指出，原油在假期期间大幅下跌，主要有两方面原因。一是OPEC+正准备在 10月之前快速增加石油产量，如果成员国的减产情况没有改善，可能会在11月之前取消220万桶/日的自 愿减产。在此之前，OPEC+4月已经以快于预期的速度提高了产量。二是美国能源信息署（EIA）报告 显示，截至4月25日当周，美国战略石油储备库存增幅录得2024年11月29日当周以来最大，为连续第8周 增加。 展望后市，严丽丽认为，从需求端来看，目前全球需求仍处于淡季。不过，5月底、6月初美国将进 入汽油消费旺季。如果后期OPEC+继续加速增产，可能会导致油价进一步下行，从而掩盖消费进入旺 季的利多。但短期的关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected increase in OPEC+ production during the May holiday period has caused significant fluctuations in the oil market, indicating a shift in OPEC+'s policy stance since 2022 and raising concerns about future diplomatic negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Changes - On May 3, 2025, OPEC+ announced adjustments to its voluntary production cuts, leading to a 1.5% drop in Brent crude oil prices, falling below the critical $60 per barrel mark [2]. - The production increase was unexpected, with an additional 41,100 barrels per day added to the production adjustment, effectively advancing the previous production increase schedule by three months [2][3]. - OPEC's statement indicated a relatively healthy market, with plans to meet again on June 1 to decide on July's production levels, emphasizing the need for discipline among member countries [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global oil supply-demand structure is shifting towards a "loose balance," with potential oversupply if OPEC continues to increase production, which may exert downward pressure on the oil market [4][5]. - The increase in production could lead to a slight oversupply in the second quarter, as the market transitions from a "tight balance" to a "loose balance" [4]. - The core factors influencing oil prices include supply attributes and financial risk events, with macroeconomic indicators potentially leading to weaker demand, which could become a new pricing core for the oil market [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The increase in production may reflect Saudi Arabia's desire to maintain OPEC's discipline and respond to upcoming diplomatic activities with the U.S., particularly regarding military cooperation agreements [3][5]. - The current oil price levels are near the production cost range for some U.S. shale oil producers, which could impact their revenue and capital expenditure, thereby affecting their production capabilities [3][5]. - Overall, the international oil price is expected to remain weak and volatile, with a preference for commodities like gold over oil in the current market environment [5].

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating II. Core Viewpoints - The price of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States continued to decline due to OPEC and its eight allied countries accelerating production increases, triggering concerns about more supply. But the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate, narrowing the decline in international oil prices at the end of the session. Short - term outlook for oil prices is bearish [3]. - The domestic methanol market is mainly bullish in the short - term. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories dropped significantly [3]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Crude Oil - SC near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 490.0, up 10.0 (2.08%) from the day before. The trading volume was 9, and the open interest was 2,456, with a decrease of 3 [2]. - SC next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 471.1, down 12.5 (-2.58%) from the day before. The trading volume was 128,314, and the open interest was 22,870, with a decrease of 3,357 [2]. - WTI near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 58.38, down 0.60 (-1.02%) from the day before. The trading volume was 167,984, and the open interest was 226,780, with an increase of 4,207 [2]. - WTI next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 57.94, down 0.50 (-0.86%) from the day before. The trading volume was 373,281, and the open interest was 587,561, with a decrease of 18,868 [2]. - Brent near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 60.25, down 1.20 (-1.95%) from the day before. The trading volume was 236,097, and the open interest was 357,456, with an increase of 13,396 [2]. - Brent next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 59.97, down 1.11 (-1.82%) from the day before [2]. Methanol - 01 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2316, down 25.0 (-1.07%) from the day before. The trading volume was 18,626, and the open interest was 116,830, with an increase of 4,357 [2]. - 05 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2311, down 44.0 (-1.87%) from the day before. The trading volume was 30,174, and the open interest was 7,735, with a decrease of 23,333 [2]. - 09 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2251, down 27.0 (-1.19%) from the day before. The trading volume was 494,490, and the open interest was 635,491, with a decrease of 19,453 [2]. 2. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC's basket of crude oil price was 61.80, Brent DTD was 61.47, Russian ESPD was 58.29, Oman was 62.12, Dubai was 62.18, and Cinta was 60.42 [2]. - Domestic market: The price of Daqing crude oil was 59.79, Shengli was 59.10. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index was 8,046 yuan/ton, and the Chinese diesel wholesale price index was 6,800 yuan/ton. FOB naphtha in Singapore was 62.18, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene was 5,445 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - The spot price in the port was 0 US dollars, in East China was 2492.5 yuan, and in North China was 2395 yuan [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Crude Oil - OPEC and its eight allied countries will implement a daily production adjustment of 411,000 barrels starting from June 2025 based on the May 2025 production level, equivalent to a three - month increase [3]. - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which may lead to the deterioration of the Middle East situation [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.38%, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. As of April 24, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 71.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47 percentage points but a year - on - year increase of 2.45 percentage points [3]. - Coastal methanol inventories were 58.1 tons as of April 24, down 10.93 tons (15.83%) from April 17, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.07%. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was around 20.4 tons. It is estimated that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships from April 25 to May 11 will be between 533,700 - 540,000 tons [3].

德邦证券主要观点如下： 供需趋向宽松，油价或震荡偏弱 受OPEC+增产和特朗普关税等因素影响，油价中枢在4月初出现快速下移，下旬虽有所反弹，但整体走 势仍显弱势，布伦特处于65美元/桶附近震荡。向后展望： ①供给：此前OPEC+原定增产计划是自2025年4月始，到2026年9月止，增产原油总规模约220万桶/日， 月均增产约12万桶/日，叠加阿联酋因产量基准调整带来的1.67万桶/日的月均额外增量，月均增产约14 万桶/日。5月OPEC+意外宣布实施超预期的石油增产，增产幅度扩充至约原计划3倍的41.1万桶/日，6月 宣布延续41.1万桶/日的增产措施，以此节奏推进下，我们预计OPEC+增产计划将在今年10月前完成， 较原定计划截至时间大幅提前，或进一步加剧市场对原油供应过剩的担忧。 ②需求：短期来看，春季检修背景下需求或阶段性放缓，美国原油累库进程尚未结束，据隆众资讯，五 一前后预计维持年内高位，预计5月中旬逐步转入去库。 长期来看，美国关税政策或存在新的调整，特朗普表示将在三四周内与贸易伙伴达成协议，但从三大机 构对原油需求前景的预测来看，均出现大幅下调，IEA/EIA/OPEC 4月报预测2025年全球 ...

油价下跌超10%后反弹，OPEC+增产与美国贸易政策风险，巴克莱和高盛下调油价预测，油价未来走势 如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ has increased production, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, suggesting a downward trend in the future [1] - The US dollar has weakened across the board, while Asian currencies have strengthened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 78% compared to 22% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 37% bullish and 63% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 79%, while the Dow Jones Index shows 64% bullish and 36% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish, while the German DAX40 Index has 22% bullish and 78% bearish sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and bearish of 40%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows 67% bullish and 33% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment at 85%, while the Euro/AUD pair is more balanced with 54% bullish and 46% bearish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has 24% bullish and 76% bearish sentiment, while the GBP/JPY pair shows 43% bullish and 57% bearish [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish of 44%, while the USD/CAD pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment at 96% and only 4% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish of 45%, while the AUD/JPY pair shows 42% bullish and 58% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62%, while the NZD/USD pair is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 63% and bearish of 37%, while the USD/offshore RMB pair shows a significant bearish sentiment at 87% [4]

多家投行联手看空！中国狂买、OPEC+增产、美国减产"三股逆风"交织，未来油价下方空间还有多 少？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...