Group 1 - Fidelity Fund announced a change in leadership with Xiaoyi Helen Huang resigning as chairman on July 18, and Li Shaojie appointed as the new chairman [1] - Industrial Fund appointed Zhang Shunguo as the new supervisor on July 18, previously serving as vice president [2] - Central Huijin Asset increased its holdings in multiple broad-based ETFs, spending over 190 billion yuan in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Liu Jian was appointed as the deputy general manager of Tongtai Fund, having previously served as an assistant general manager [4] - Zhang Kun's fund holdings revealed changes in the top ten stocks, with JD Health and SF Holding entering the list, and increased positions in several liquor stocks [5] Group 3 - The ETF market saw a strong performance with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year, led by sectors such as cement, construction machinery, and steel [6] - The construction materials ETFs experienced significant gains, with some ETFs rising over 10% [7] Group 4 - Current prices for most construction materials are at historically low levels, with national average prices for high-standard cement down 31 yuan per ton year-on-year and 17 yuan month-on-month [8] - The industry is expected to improve due to stable growth policies and a better competitive landscape, making construction material ETFs a potential investment opportunity [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuation of the anti - involution market is the main macro - logical line for domestic commodity and stock market trading. Policy expectations under the current economic situation lead to the continuation of this market. The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project jointly strengthen the anti - involution market, causing a general rise in domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products [2][4]. - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges faced in the current industrial economy. The ideas for dealing with these challenges are stable growth and transformation, which are complementary. The stable growth is to consolidate the foundation, and the transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. The plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market, but the final implementation may not exceed expectations, and the market trend is expected to be tortuous with rapid rotation of hot sectors and varieties [6][8]. - For investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled and rapid price corrections should be guarded against when the market is extremely optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Event Introduction - On July 18, MIIT's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials would be implemented, and the specific plans would be released soon. On July 19, the start ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, and an expected annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. These two events jointly strengthened the anti - involution market, leading to a general rise in domestic - priced commodities [2]. Market Performance - Domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, witnessed a long - awaited general rise. Alumina once rose more than 8% during the session, leading the domestic commodities, and varieties such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, and caustic soda once rose more than 5% during the session. The table also shows the settlement price and price change rates of various commodities such as iron ore, rolled steel, and palm oil [2][3]. Economic Situation and Policy Expectations - From the second - quarter macro data, the overall economy has resilience but is weakening marginally. The real estate sector still drags down the economy, exports face challenges, and consumption plays a major role. The continuous negative growth of PPI for 33 months indicates an endogenous deflation risk in the Chinese economy, which forms a negative feedback loop. The market has strong policy expectations under this situation, and the anti - involution market continues [4]. MIIT's Work Plan - In the second half of the year, to maintain the stable operation and high - quality development of the industrial economy, MIIT will focus on two major actions. One is to implement a new round of stable growth actions, including printing stable growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The other is to implement intelligent and green transformation and upgrading actions, including printing digital transformation implementation plans for the automobile, machinery, and power equipment industries and green development outlines for the aviation and shipbuilding industries [5]. Policy Background and Ideas - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges in the current industrial economy, such as external uncertainties and industrial structural contradictions. The ideas are stable growth and transformation. Stable growth aims to consolidate the foundation, and transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. To implement these, the development environment needs to be optimized [6]. Policy Impact and Investment Strategy - The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market and strengthens investors' expectations. The start of the hydropower project makes up for the market's concerns about the lack of demand - side pull in the "supply - side reform". However, the final implementation of the plan may not exceed expectations, and the market trend will be tortuous. For investment, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the market fermentation, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [8].

发布时间：2025-07-21 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《红利研究（1）：为什么是银行？终点 又在何处》 - 2025.07.14 策略观点 等待经济政策为市场定调 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股延续上涨势头。本周主要股指继续全数上涨，其中创业 板指上涨 3.17%表现最佳，其余主要指数中代表权重蓝筹的上证指数 和上证 50 相对较弱，分别上涨 0.69%和 0.28%。风格方面，本周风格 层面出现分化，成长、消费和周期风格继续上涨，金融和稳定风格出 现回调。市值风格方面，本周大中小盘市值风格均有上涨，中盘和小 盘指数表现明显优于大盘指数。本周代表核心资产和成长龙头的茅指 数和宁组合亦有上涨，宁组合整周上涨 1.56%，茅指数上涨 2.29%。 个人投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has led to a significant surge in the water conservancy and cement sectors, with related ETFs experiencing substantial gains in trading volume and price [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Performance - The E Fund Building Materials ETF (159787) saw a half-day increase of 8.23%, with a trading volume of 26.74 million yuan [2][3]. - The Building Materials ETF (159745) recorded a half-day trading amount of 234 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1][3]. - Year-to-date, the Building Materials ETF (159745) has seen an increase of 23.1 million shares, with a change rate of 28.11% [2]. Group 2: Industry Price Trends - Many building material prices are currently at historically low levels, with the national average price of high-standard cement down by 31 yuan/ton year-on-year and 17 yuan/ton month-on-month [3]. - Float glass prices have decreased by 27.2% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month [3]. - The industry is expected to improve due to a combination of stable growth policies and an enhanced competitive landscape [3]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI All Share Building Materials Index includes listed companies involved in the building materials sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [4]. - Major weighted stocks in the index include Conch Cement (14.46%), Beijing New Building Materials (11.04%), and Oriental Yuhong (9.05%) [5].

Group 1 - The market shows positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index consistently above 3500 points, indicating potential for upward movement in A-shares [1] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside adjustment space and clearer upward logic [1] - Mid to long-term trends in the A-share market remain upward, supported by long-term funds entering the market, particularly from insurance capital [1] Group 2 - High certainty in earnings is leading to strong performance in certain sectors, with a focus on themes such as AI applications, self-control, innovative drugs, and capacity optimization [1] - The "anti-involution" sectors are showing low valuations and are expected to benefit from price increases, which will help maintain market momentum [2] - Financial data from June indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The non-bank sector is favored, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions driven by policy and event catalysts, as new capital enters the market [2] - The "anti-involution" narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on key industries for stable growth, particularly in metals and commodities [3] - The power equipment sector in the Hong Kong market is highlighted as a core asset, with expectations for improved profitability in wind and hydroelectric power [3]

Group 1 - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is expected to exceed 50% in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the total retail sales of social consumer goods, indicating a strong momentum for economic growth [1] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has shown significant results, leading to substantial growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, thus creating new development opportunities for related industries [1] - The retail sales growth rate peaked in May due to the combination of e-commerce promotions and policy benefits, showcasing the robust vitality of the consumption market [1] Group 2 - The recovery in consumption not only supports economic growth but also plays a crucial role in improving livelihoods and promoting employment, creating numerous job opportunities [2] - The trend of consumption upgrading encourages enterprises to increase innovation investments, enhancing product quality and service levels, thereby providing consumers with more choices and better experiences [2] - Continuous optimization of consumption policies by the government is essential to consolidate and expand the results of the consumption recovery, ensuring a safe and reliable consumption environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a significant rally, with several companies reaching their daily price limits, indicating strong market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1] Industry Developments - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting on July 15 to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the steel industry, emphasizing the need to control capacity increases and facilitate exits from the market to prevent overcapacity risks [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of establishing a new capacity governance mechanism to maintain a healthy competitive environment in the steel industry [1] Market Outlook - According to Minsheng Securities, policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing competition pressure on tail-end capacities are expected to optimize crude steel supply, leading to a potential recovery in steel companies' profitability [1] - Xinda Securities forecasts a stable improvement in the steel industry's structure, noting that some companies are currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities, particularly for high-margin special steel firms and leading companies with strong cost control [1]

Macro Analysis - June retail data in the US showed a month-on-month increase, but the resilience should not be overestimated due to potential tariff disruptions and inflation adjustments. Actual retail sales growth was only 0.3% after adjusting for a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index [1] Market Strategy - The market has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 [2] Credit Bonds - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, totaling 401.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% from the previous period. Notably, city investment bonds increased by 16.25% [3] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed a trend of rising then falling prices, with an overall return rate of 0.11%. Property-type REITs increased, while concession-type REITs decreased [4] Quantitative Analysis - Market momentum effects were dominant, with public research selection strategies yielding significant excess returns. The public research selection strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.33% [5][6] Automotive Industry - The "anti-involution" trend may shift the automotive industry from price-cutting to technology upgrades and cost reductions. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong tech capabilities and Geely for solid fundamentals and undervaluation [8] Electric Power Equipment - In June 2025, inverter exports remained stable at $920 million, while component and battery exports decreased by 24% year-on-year. Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year [9] Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.09 billion yuan and a 16.7% increase in net profit to 11.66 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong fundamental resilience [10] Petrochemical Industry - New Fengming plans to invest in high-end bio-based fibers, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a decrease of 28% and 22% respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in polyester [11] Construction Industry - China Power Construction is expected to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated annual contract value of 21.8-29.1 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the company's order book [12] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a positive outlook for air conditioning sales and a projected net profit of 21.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may decline compared to the first half, with a policy focus shifting towards structural adjustments. Despite this, the A-share market remains strong due to stable capital market expectations, anti-involution policies, and the positive impact of technology and trade negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Market Stability - The consensus is that achieving the annual economic growth target is feasible, with a shift in policy focus towards structural adjustments. This suggests that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may be weaker than in the first half, and expectations for growth-stabilizing policies should be moderated [1]. - Stable capital market policies have created a "buffer" against macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a perception that the downside risks for the A-share market are manageable. Even in adverse economic conditions, timely policy responses can mitigate risks [1][2]. - The anti-involution policies have connected short-term economic highlights with mid-term supply-demand improvements, allowing for smoother transitions in the market dynamics between upstream cycles and midstream manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the conditions for a market breakout are expected to be more favorable, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026. This could accelerate the market's reflection of improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability [3]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak for the repricing of household deposits, creating a critical window for reallocating assets, which may lead to natural increments in certain investment products that have limited dependence on stock market performance [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The focus of investment is shifting towards undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term opportunities lie in midstream manufacturing that benefits from supply clearing and anti-involution policies [4]. - The AI computing power industry is showing significant improvement, with domestic profit effects expanding, indicating continued investment opportunities in this sector [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a potential leader in the next bull market, with ongoing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, alongside high dividend stocks as attractive investment options [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The coal sector is currently characterized by low capacity utilization, high inventory levels, and poor profitability, indicating a significant oversupply situation. This suggests a higher likelihood of "anti-involution" measures being effective. Additionally, the coal sector is undervalued, with coking coal showing the highest valuation advantage, followed by thermal coal [2][7]. - Companies such as Pingmei Shenma, Panjiang, Shanmei International, Kailuan, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Gansu Energy show greater elasticity in their operations. However, when considering investment safety (debt ratios), Pingmei Shenma, Kailuan, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Jinkong Coal are more favorable [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.78 percentage points, ranking 27th out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of July 18 was 642 CNY/ton, up by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week. The outlook suggests potential short-term price increases due to high temperature demand, although rising port inventories may limit sustained price growth [6][21][22]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.33 million tons, up 11.1% week-on-week. The total coal inventory was 123.41 million tons, down 0.8% from the previous week, with a usable days supply of 19.5 days, a decrease of 2.3 days [22][41]. Individual Company Analysis - The report highlights specific companies with significant operational elasticity: Pingmei Shenma, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International are noted as elastic stocks. For long-term stable profit leaders, China Coal Energy and China Shenhua are recommended, while for transformation and growth, Electric Power Investment and Xinji Energy are suggested [8][38]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight supply conditions, while coking coal prices are also expected to maintain strength due to ongoing demand from steel production [22][49].