Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of understanding and implementing the spirit of Xi Jinping's recent speeches and messages, recognizing significant achievements in economic and social development over the past year and during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The meeting called for practical actions to enhance economic quality and reasonable growth, ensuring a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" by addressing urgent public concerns [1] - The role of the Political Consultative Conference was highlighted in contributing to the formulation of Xi'an's "15th Five-Year Plan" and promoting key work for 2026 through advice and democratic supervision [1] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the need to better utilize the spirit of Xi Jinping's congratulatory letters to the 70th anniversary of the PLA Daily and the 40th anniversary of the Science and Technology Daily, enhancing public awareness and support for national defense [2] - The focus was placed on stabilizing growth through project construction and investment attraction, converting urban influence into economic growth [2] - Preparations for the Spring Festival were discussed, including optimizing security management, ensuring market supply and price stability, and safeguarding public safety during the holiday [2]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focusing on implementing policies related to consumption, investment, industry, people's livelihood, reform and opening up, and green development for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The NDRC has released a notification regarding the "Two New" policies for 2026, which aims to support equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, optimizing the design and implementation to benefit more consumers and businesses [3] - A total of approximately 2.95 billion yuan has been allocated for early-stage construction projects in 2026, along with approvals for major infrastructure projects exceeding 400 billion yuan to support stable economic growth [3] Group 2 - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been launched with an initial investment of 100 billion yuan, aiming to attract local and social capital to create an investment scale exceeding one trillion yuan, focusing on innovative and disruptive technologies [4] - The construction of a unified national market is recognized as both a challenge and a long-term effort, with significant progress made but still facing barriers such as local protectionism and market segmentation [5] - The NDRC plans to establish a list of obstacles to the construction of a unified national market and will work on policies to promote healthy investment attraction while addressing issues that hinder market unity [6] Group 3 - Recent policies have been introduced to foster new technologies and industries, including the low-altitude economy, with the NDRC issuing guidelines to clarify its scope and promote safe development [7] - The establishment of national-level zero-carbon parks is a key step towards systematic innovation in renewable energy and pollution control technologies, with the first batch of parks announced to lead low-carbon transformation [7] - The NDRC will support these parks through funding, green finance, and technical guidance to explore new models and pathways for decarbonization [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the Chinese government's proactive measures to stimulate economic growth through a series of policies aimed at consumption, investment, and industry, particularly emphasizing the "Two New" policy for upgrading equipment and promoting consumption [1][3] - The "Two New" policy will be implemented starting in 2024, with a budget of 625 billion yuan allocated for consumer subsidies, including new categories such as smart glasses and adjustments to existing vehicle and appliance trade-in subsidies [3][4] - The government is also prioritizing significant investments, with approximately 2.95 trillion yuan allocated for early-stage construction projects, including urban infrastructure and ecological restoration [5][7] Group 2 - The investment plan includes 2.2 trillion yuan for "Two Heavy" construction projects, focusing on urban underground networks and agricultural improvements, alongside over 750 billion yuan for central budget investments in urban renewal and environmental protection [7][8] - A new national venture capital fund has been established with an initial investment of 100 billion yuan, aiming to attract additional capital and support the growth of innovative small and medium enterprises [14] - Policies across various sectors, including low-altitude economy and foreign investment, are being introduced to enhance market competition and promote sustainable development [15][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with traditional materials weakening while high-demand electronic yarns support the resilience of fiberglass [1][3] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by urban renewal strategies and a shift towards high-quality green materials [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector is crucial for infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, with China leading in the production of various materials [6][7] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, green, and digital solutions, supported by government initiatives [6][8] 2. Traditional Materials and Electronic Yarn - Cement demand remains weak, with high kiln shutdown rates and stable prices in December; a rebound is expected post-Spring Festival [10][14] - Fiberglass shows a mixed demand; traditional yarns face price stabilization while high-end electronic yarns continue to see price increases due to supply constraints [40][42] - Consumer building materials show slight improvement in retail sales, driven by year-end demand, but overall demand remains below previous years [38] 3. Market Dynamics - The building materials industry maintained a stable operation in December, with a business climate index of 102.9, indicating steady demand and production [9] - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in confidence, with a 3.66% increase in December, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [48][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - Cement companies like Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement are recommended due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [4] - For fiberglass, companies like China Jushi and China National Materials are highlighted for their strong positioning in high-demand segments [4] - Consumer building materials firms such as Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to benefit from urban renewal and quality upgrades [4]

Group 1: PMI Performance - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, marking an 8-month high and exceeding Bloomberg and Reuters' consensus estimate of 49.2%[2] - The PMI increase is characterized by strong structural certainty, although total economic uncertainty remains[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI surged by 2.4 percentage points to 52.5%, indicating positive growth trends in the sector[7] Group 2: Demand and Production - New orders contributed 53% to the PMI increase, while production contributed 47%[7] - New orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, and new export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, reaching a new high since April[7] - Production index significantly improved by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, indicating strong expansion momentum[7] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - Main raw material purchase price index slightly decreased to 53.1%, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%[7] - Raw material inventory index increased to 47.8%, and finished goods inventory index rose to 48.2%, reflecting synchronized supply and demand improvements[7] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2%, returning to expansion territory, primarily driven by a 3.2 percentage point rise in construction PMI to 52.8%[7] - The construction sector's improvement is attributed to favorable weather conditions and accelerated project progress, although funding and project availability remain concerns[7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the manufacturing PMI increase is uncertain, with potential risks in demand and external economic conditions[6] - The need for stable growth remains significant as 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating potential policy support to stabilize the economy[2]

Core Viewpoint - As of December 30, 21 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for January 2026, totaling 771.2 billion yuan, compared to 284.6 billion yuan planned for January 2025 [1] Group 1: Local Bond Issuance - The current fiscal revenue and expenditure face certain pressures, making growth stabilization urgent [1] - The project timelines are gradually extending, indicating that local governments are unlikely to delay bond issuance or shorten issuance periods due to fluctuations in secondary market interest rates [1] - A rough comparison shows that the issuance period for local bonds in the first quarter of 2026 has decreased, but due to limited samples and the typical discrepancies between planned and actual issuance, it cannot be simply concluded that the issuance period will significantly shorten [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank's interest rate stance is focused on stability, and past experiences indicate that phases of market concern over supply are often good opportunities for left-side trading [1]

央视网消息：近日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，对2026年"两新"工作作出系 统部署。与2025年相比，优化方案呈现出"精准发力，提质增效"的特征。 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 消费品以旧换新"得补率"将更高 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 设备更新领域支持范畴更广 在设备更新领域，《通知》在保持总体延续的基础上，进一步将民生关切、公共安全及线下消费领域关键设备纳入支持范畴。包括老旧小区加装电梯， 养老机构设备更新；消防救援设施、检验检测设备更新，支持商业综合体、购物中心、大型超市等线下消费商业设施设备更新。《通知》加大对中小企业设 备更新的支持力度，大幅降低申报相关领域设备更新项目的投资额门槛，实现政策红利"应享尽享"。 2026年，优化后的"两新"政策将更加注重提质增效， 扩内需，稳增长，促转型，惠民生。 在消费品以旧换新领域，《通知》明确，2026年汽车以旧换新将此前定额补贴优化调整为按车价比例补贴，报废更新补贴最高2万元，置换更新补贴最 高1.5万元。2026年家电以旧换新支持冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等六大类产品，通过 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is in a state of shock between the expectations of stabilizing growth and easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The bond market has experienced an over - decline and is in a repair phase, with the prices of treasury bond futures showing a differentiated trend. Influenced by the stock market, the Politburo meeting released a signal of loose money, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continued. Meanwhile, the increasing uncertainty in global trade added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [9]. - The social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year growth rate was 8.00%, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the previous period, with a decline rate of 2.44%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.22, with a month - on - month increase of 0.22 and a growth rate of 0.22%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9911, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.017 and a decline rate of 0.24%; SHIBOR 7 days was 1.59, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 1.99%; DR007 was 1.69, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09 and a growth rate of 5.83%; R007 was 1.51, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.31%; the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.61, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.47%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.47% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 30, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 105.82 yuan, 107.94 yuan, and 111.83 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, - 0.01%, - 0.02%, and 0.17% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.102 yuan, 0.048 yuan, 0.088 yuan, and 0.510 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - In November, the general public budget revenue slowed down year - on - year under the influence of a high base, but the annual revenue progress was still relatively fast, and the pressure to complete the first - account budget was not great. The fiscal support ability remained. The expenditure side showed a significant narrowing of the decline, with the pre - budgeted funds gradually turning into actual expenditures, and the structure was more inclined towards people's livelihood and investment in human resources. Infrastructure - related expenditures improved marginally but were still weak overall. Government - funded revenues continued to be dragged down by the real estate market, but the acceleration of special bond issuance drove the year - on - year growth of expenditures to turn positive, providing support for the broad fiscal situation [2]. - The financial data in November was generally weak. Credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans, and the long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, with loans significantly less than the same period last year. Although the social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, it was mainly due to corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing offsetting the weakness of government bonds and loans, reflecting that the willingness of the private sector to increase leverage remained insufficient. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined simultaneously, and the decline of current deposits was faster, indicating weak capital turnover and economic vitality in the real sector [2]. - On December 30, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 312.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [2]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.247%, 1.589%, 1.869%, and 1.585% respectively, and the repurchase rates had rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview The report provides various charts showing the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [32][33][37]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts of the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [35][38][43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][63]. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term. Short - position holders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

龚正指出，要坚决守牢城市安全底线，切实绷紧安全这根弦，以"时时放心不下"的责任感，深入开 展安全隐患排查整治，强化节日期间应急值守和应急准备，确保不发生重特大安全事故，保障城市安全 有序运行。要确保市场供应平稳有序，主副食品供应充足、价格稳定，水电气等正常供应、服务便捷。 要扩大优质商品和服务供给，结合节日消费特点和群众需求，创新多元消费场景，营造浓厚节日氛围， 激发假期消费潜力。 龚正指出，要有效保障困难群众基本生活，做好帮困送温暖，确保广覆盖、不遗漏。特别是要聚焦 困难老人、困难残疾人、因病致贫家庭等特殊群体，多做雪中送炭的事。要做好重点行业企业工资支付 情况督促检查，着力化解矛盾纠纷。同时，各委办局要主动服务和参加好市"两会"。龚正强调，越是年 节期间，越是不能放松纪律这根弦。要巩固深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育成果，严守财经纪律， 坚决落实党政机关过紧日子的要求，切实做到厉行节约、勤俭办事。 市领导吴伟、陈杰、张小宏、解冬、陈宇剑、舒庆、彭沉雷出席。市政府秘书长马春雷作《政府工 作报告》起草情况说明，市发展改革委汇报"十五五"规划《纲要（草案）》编制情况，与会相关部门作 交流发言。 记者 孟群舒 上 ...

Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, maintaining a medium-high growth level[2] - Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025[4] - China's fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to turn positive at 2.5% in 2026, recovering from a negative growth of -3.0% in 2025[4] Trade and Export Impact - China's export growth is anticipated to decline significantly from approximately 5.0% in 2025 to around 1.0% in 2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs[15] - The average U.S. import tariff rate is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2026, impacting global trade dynamics[8] Policy Measures - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set to remain at 4.0%, with an increase in new special bond issuance expected to reach 5.0 trillion yuan[41] - A reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points is anticipated in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market[52] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 5.0%-6.0% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies[65] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to increase to 5.0% in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's performance[71] Inflation and Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 0.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement in the low inflation environment[76] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecasted to decline by -1.8% in 2026, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy[76]