金融期货早班车 金融研究 2025年11月25日 星期二 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 126.61、91.37、28.65 与 8.96 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.64%、-8.75%、-4.24%与-2%，三年期历史分位数分别为 31%、25%、22%及 30%。 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 招商期货有限公司 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：11 月 24 日，A 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.05%，报收 3836.77 点；深成 指上涨 0.37%，报收 12585.08 点；创业板指上涨 0.31%，报收 2929.04 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.84%， 报收 1296.6 点。市场成交 17,404 亿元，较前日减少 2,432 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+4.31%)， 传媒(+3.49%)，计算机(+2.41%)涨幅居前；石油石化(-1.21%)，煤炭(-1.09%)，银行(-0.79%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，I ...

新华财经北京11月24日电德国11月商业信心意外下滑，这是一个新的迹象，表明尽管政府加大支出，但 克服经济停滞仍面临挑战。德国智库IFO公布的数据显示，德国11月IFO商业预期指数从上月的91.6降至 90.6，分析师此前预计读数将基本保持不变。 （文章来源：新华财经） IFO总裁Clemens Fuest称，"企业对当前形势的评估更为积极。"不过，由于制造业前景受到"严重打 击"，"他们对经济复苏会很快到来几乎没有信心"。这些数据凸显了人们对政府通过投资基础设施和国 防来恢复增长的计划的怀疑。尽管德国央行和大多数其他预测机构均预计，在经历了动荡的2025年之 后，第四季度的产出将出现增长，但一些机构最近下调了他们的预测。 ...

金融研究 2025年11月21日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 20 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.4%，报收 3931.05 点；深成 指下跌 0.76%，报收 12980.82 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3042.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1328.19 点。市场成交 17,226 亿元，较前日减少 200 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+1.4%)， 综合(+0.87%)，银行(+0.86%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.39%)，煤炭(-2.1%)，电力设备(-1.96%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,452/150/3,846。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-156、-210、34、332 亿元，分别变动+23、-41、-24、+42 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.81、61.95、25.75 与 5.69 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-11.89%、-9.97%、-6.41%与-2.15%，三年期历史分 ...

2025年11月20日 星期四 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：11 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.18%，报收 点；深 19 3946.74 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成指下跌 0%，报收 13080.09 点；创业板指上涨 0.25%，报收 3076.85 点；科创 50 指数下跌 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.97%，报收 1344.8 点。市场成交 17,427 亿元，较前日减少 2,033 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属(+2.39%)，石油石化(+1.67%)，国防军工(+1.11%)涨幅居前；综合(-3.08%)，房地产(-2.09%)， | | | | | | | 1,196/76/4,173。沪 | | | | | | 传媒(-1.72%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/ ...

今日A股市场呈现典型的结构性分化，三大指数涨跌互现，上证指数微跌0.04%，创业板指微涨0.12%， 市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。值得关注的是，两市成交额维持在1.44万亿元的高位，这清晰地表明，市场的 博弈焦点并非在于"离场"还是"进场"，而在于"结构"与"方向"。 本次市场分化的核心特征，是资金从高估值成长板块向低估值资源及防御板块的迁移。从申万一级行业 看，石油石化（+1.22%）、银行（+0.82%）等板块领涨，而医药生物、计算机等则跌幅居前。这一现 象的背后，是三重驱动逻辑在发挥作用： 此外，水产、中船系等主题板块的活跃，揭示了资金在寻找主线之外的α机会。中船系的走强，尤其值 得关注，它可能预示着市场对军工行业的认知，正从早期的主题炒作，转向对"十五五"规划订单实质落 地的预期。 中长期视角下，决定市场走向的仍是经济复苏的强度与产业升级的进程。当前的价值风格占优，是对宏 观环境的阶段性适应。待政策效果进一步显现，经济增长路径更加明确后，符合国家战略方向的科技成 长板块，在经过充分的估值消化后，有望重新引领市场。 投资寄语：市场的短期波动是群体情绪的映射，而长期价值则取决于企业内在的盈利能力。作为一名理 性 ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上期首席视点指出，宏观基础因子中的经济增长和流动性因子对风险资产配置并不算友好。从风险溢价 来看，海外投资者在期待新的刺激政策，我们判断这种期待在没有明确的信号出来之前形成交易的逻辑 为时尚早。从通胀因子看，价格，无论是PPI还是CPI确实给出了积极的信号。对这一信号，市场一度给 出了积极的回应，但大部分的投资者还是在担心这种积极信号的持续性。随着10月宏观数据的陆续公 布，投资者的情绪在进一步调整，叠加外部新的冲击的来临，年底前的市场又掀起了新的波澜。 在新的波澜面前，是被动地等待，还是积极地寻觅？机会总是留给那些积极准备的人的，积极地等待， 也就是谋定而后动是现实的策略。 一、市场回顾：并不是在等待戈多 从周度数据看，中国宏观经济的基本面和美国12月降息的不确定性以及日本首相不当言论引发的全球风 险溢价的陡然提升在大类资产的走势上映射得非常明显。商品中的焦煤，恒生科技以及科创50、创业 板、纳斯达克等权益资产下跌，与之对应，债券走势尚可。 从A股周度行业走势看，电子、电力设备、煤炭、通信等跌幅居前，几乎被投资者遗忘的综合、纺织服 装涨幅靠前，老树不开花也受到投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market downturn reflects a significant revaluation of previously high-performing sectors, particularly cyclical stocks and the new energy sector, indicating a shift in economic expectations and profitability outlooks [1][2][25]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.92% to 13080.49, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.16% to 3069.22 [1]. - Over 4100 stocks declined, with nearly 800 experiencing drops exceeding 3%, indicating widespread market weakness [1]. Group 2: Cyclical Stocks Decline - Cyclical sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal all saw declines of over 3%, with some stocks hitting the daily limit down [1][2]. - The decline in cyclical stocks is linked to a negative feedback loop with commodity prices, as industrial metals and energy prices have also retreated [1][2][14]. Group 3: New Energy and Lithium Battery Sector - The new energy and lithium battery sectors faced significant sell-offs, with stocks like Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source dropping over 10% [1][2]. - The decline is attributed to high valuations and a shift in market sentiment, as expectations for future growth in electric vehicle penetration and energy storage have been revised downward [6][10]. Group 4: External Market Influences - The downturn in the A-share market is not isolated, as it follows a notable correction in U.S. tech stocks, which has affected global risk appetite [12][13]. - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan and the retreat of foreign capital have further exacerbated the situation, leading to increased selling pressure on high-valuation growth stocks [13][14]. Group 5: Resilient Sectors - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as AI applications, e-commerce, and certain tech stocks have shown resilience due to low valuations and supportive policies [25][26]. - These sectors are characterized by their potential for growth and innovation, although they face limitations in market capacity and the need for performance validation [25][26]. Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its downward trend, with cyclical stocks likely to face further pressure due to ongoing commodity price adjustments and shifting institutional strategies [16][20]. - The new energy and lithium battery sectors are anticipated to undergo a "bubble-popping" process, as high valuations are reassessed in light of competitive pressures and reduced growth expectations [20][21].

Group 1 - The report anticipates a transition of the Chinese economy from a bottoming phase to a recovery phase in 2026, driven by three unexpected demand-side factors: U.S. fiscal expansion, rising exports, and improved real estate supply-demand dynamics [1][21][54] - U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 5.9% in FY 2026, with potential increases to 7.2% if tariff revenues are eliminated, which could lead to a medium-strength recovery starting in Q1 2026 [1][21][25] - The global supply chain reconstruction is expected to boost China's export growth, particularly in machinery and transportation equipment, which have shown significant growth since April 2025 [2][54][58] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with an estimated inventory clearance period of approximately 25.3 months as of September 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices by the end of 2026 [3][54] - The strategy emphasizes a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors, with particular attention to industries such as chemicals, new energy, and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from the recovery narrative [6][54] - The report highlights that the micro-cap stock market may continue its bullish trend, with an estimated net inflow of approximately 5 billion yuan per month from new private equity quantitative products [7][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

金融研究 2025年11月18日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 17 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3972.03 点；深成 指下跌 0.11%，报收 13202 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3105.2 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 1354.04 点。市场成交 19,303 亿元，较前日减少 501 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+1.67%)， 国防军工(+1.59%)，煤炭(+1.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-1.73%)，银行(-1.31%)，非银金融(-1.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,582/138/2,724。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-47、-121、-3、171 亿元，分别变动+332、+120、-133、-318 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 128.68、91.95、16.65 与 2.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-17.1%、-12.71%、-3.62%与-0.95%，三年期历 ...