Group 1 - The gold market is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations as investors await the outcome of the tariff agreement expiration and significant economic data releases, leading to a cautious sentiment and continuation of the previous day's pullback pressure [1] - The US dollar index maintains its rebound momentum, which is expected to limit bullish trends in gold prices. The weekly chart indicates that the dollar index has rebounded above the middle track, with clear bullish signals in the indicators, suggesting a potential strengthening in August that could exert pressure on gold prices [3] - Despite the strengthening of the dollar index, the long-term trend of gold prices remains uncertain, with expectations of either continued fluctuations or a potential upward trend. Key economic data to watch includes the US unemployment rate and non-farm employment figures, with market expectations indicating a rise in unemployment and a decrease in non-farm employment, which could be favorable for gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The daily chart shows that gold prices closed higher yesterday, remaining above the 100-day moving average and forming a bottoming pattern, indicating potential for further strength towards the $3,400 level. However, there is still downward pressure, and a return above the 60-day moving average is necessary to increase bullish momentum [4] - If gold prices fall below the 100-day moving average support, they may decline to the $3,100 or $3,000 levels. Therefore, the market is expected to experience a period of consolidation before making a decisive move either upwards or downwards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 225 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's forecast, translating to an increase of 0.17-0.20 yuan per liter, which exceeds the upper limit for price hikes [1] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with U.S. crude oil dropping below $70 per barrel, closing at $69.36 per barrel after a decline of 1.34% [4] - Brent crude oil also fell by 1.36%, closing at $71.74 per barrel, with current prices at $69.27 per barrel, reflecting a further decrease of 0.13% [4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a surprising rise in core PCE inflation to 2.8%, has impacted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced oil demand [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The following are the expected fuel prices in various regions: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.23 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 7.22 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.68 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.48 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.89 yuan, and diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 10.06 yuan, and diesel at 6.99 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, positive economic data, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, marking the first monthly increase since President Trump took office [1][4]. Economic Performance - In July, the dollar index rose by 3.4%, recovering from a significant decline of 10.79% in the first half of the year, which was the worst performance since 1973 [3][4]. - The dollar index reached a low of 96.37 in early July, the lowest since February 2022, before climbing to a high of 100.09 by the end of the month [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [4][5]. - The Fed's hawkish position and the resilience of the US economy have contributed to the dollar's strength, with the year-to-date decline narrowing to 7% [4]. Trade Policies - President Trump's recent executive order established "reciprocal" tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from various countries, which has reduced uncertainty surrounding trade policies [5]. - The narrowing of the US trade deficit by 10.8% to $86 billion in June, along with a 4.2% decrease in imports, reflects a shift in trade dynamics [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent dollar rebound, some institutions maintain a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar index, citing concerns over extreme valuations and potential market shocks [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current dollar strength may be a temporary adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall downtrend, with expectations of renewed weakness if the Fed signals future rate cuts [9]. Future Outlook - Market participants are generally expecting a moderate increase in the dollar over the coming months, contrasting with previous bearish sentiments [6][8]. - The resilience of US economic data and the lack of readiness from the Fed to cut rates are seen as supporting factors for a stronger dollar [8].

Macro Research - The manufacturing PMI index fell unexpectedly to 49.3% in July, indicating a slowdown in production activities and a contraction in demand index, highlighting supply-demand imbalances [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy showed signs of weakness despite a rebound in consumer spending, with a consumer confidence index remaining low and private investment declining at an annualized rate of -15.6% [2] Bond Market - As of the end of Q2 2025, active bond funds saw an increase in performance, with leverage and duration rising compared to the previous quarter, indicating a comprehensive increase in various types of bonds [3] - The divergence between bond and bill market interest rates is attributed to both funding and credit attributes, with bill rates declining in response to increased bank credit [4] Industry Research - The European offshore wind sector is experiencing a positive trend due to improved policies, reduced project costs, and strategic positioning, with new installations expected to reach 2.6GW in 2024 and 11.8GW by 2030 [5] - The phosphate chemical industry is facing low operating rates for ammonium phosphate, with leading companies benefiting from upstream resource acquisitions, while those lacking such integration may face profitability pressures [8] Company Research - Jilin Chemical Fiber is expected to see a decline in profitability in its carbon fiber segment, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, while maintaining a positive outlook for its transition to carbon fiber products [10] - Su Shi Testing reported a revenue increase of 8.09% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a strong performance in Q2, and is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new growth from emerging industries [11] - Baidu Group is facing pressure on its advertising business due to competitive dynamics and AI transformation impacts, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [12] - Qualcomm's FY25Q3 results met expectations, with continued growth in automotive and IoT business segments, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [13]

金十数据7月31日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，美元有望再度上涨，因 为即将公布的数据可能不利于美国近期降息。他表示，北京时间20:30公布的6月份核心PCE物价指数 （美联储常用的通胀指标）可能超出预期。其他值得关注的数据初请失业金人数，此前该数据意外连续 六周下降。这是自2022年8月至9月以来持续时间最长的一次下降，可能表明劳动力市场表现强劲。此 外，周五公布的非农就业数据也可能"足够好"，足以支持美联储继续暂停降息。 荷兰国际银行：即将公布的美国数据可能提振美元 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices in the context of improving U.S. economic data and the potential implications of the PCE data [1] Economic Context - U.S. economic data continues to show positive trends, which may influence market expectations and gold prices [1] - The focus is on whether the upcoming PCE data will disrupt this positive momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The voting result for the decision was 9 in favor and 2 against, with one member absent, marking the first time since late 1993 that two members opposed the rate decision [1] - The dissenting votes came from Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who argued for a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged is influenced by inflation pressures and economic uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe and will closely monitor U.S. inflation data as a key factor for future monetary policy [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the July meeting, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped significantly from 63.3% to 43.2% [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September [5]

周四（7月31日）亚市盘中，黄金期货延续跌势，最新沪金主力报769.76元/克，跌幅0.43%，美联储召 开7月议息会议，美联储主席鲍威尔货币政策表态偏鹰派，同时昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，对 于金价形成较强利空因素。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信息，他认为后续 的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。 鲍威尔认为劳动力市场状况良好，并表示核心通胀有30%-40%来自于关税。鲍威尔表明目前美国经济需 要适度的限制。 经济数据方面，美国7月ADP就业人数为10.4万人，高于预期的7.5万人以及前值的-2.3万人。受到一季 度抢进口因素消退的影响，美国二季度实际GDP季度环比年化值为3%，大幅高于预期的2.4%与前值 的-0.5%。 【技术分析】 黄金价格短期将面临较强回调压力，沪金主力合约参考运行区间760-794元/克，今日沪金主力上方阻力 关注780-790，下方支撑关注750-760。 本次议息会议中，监管副主席鲍曼以及理事沃勒投下反对票，认为应当进行降息操作，后续两人将会就 反对意见作出解释。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and Powell's comments reduced the expectation of a rate cut in September from 65% to 45%, which weakened gold's appeal and increased downward pressure on gold prices [3] - The ADP employment report showed a higher-than-expected increase in private sector jobs for July, and the second quarter GDP growth rate was 3.0%, both of which diminished market expectations for Fed easing and led to gold sell-off [3] - The global macro environment has seen the Trump administration reach several trade agreements and impose high tariffs, which alleviated concerns about the U.S. withdrawing from global affairs, boosting confidence in the dollar but increasing global economic uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant decline after a brief correction, indicating a continued weak trend. The 5-day moving average has crossed below multiple longer-term averages, suggesting a bearish outlook [6] - Key resistance is identified at 3310, and as long as gold prices remain below this level, a bearish stance is advised. The primary support level is at 3268, with further support at 3248/3245 if this level is breached [6][7] - On the four-hour chart, gold failed to hold above the previous low of 3302/3301 and instead broke lower, necessitating close monitoring of the downward trend. The key level to watch is 3334, which, if surpassed, could indicate a potential reversal [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has not yet decided on policy adjustments for September, leading to a cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023 [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose 0.4% intraday but closed down 0.12% at 6362.90 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.71 points, or 0.38%, to 44461.28 points; the Nasdaq Composite slightly increased by 0.15% to 21129.67 points [1][2]. - The Chinese Golden Dragon Index dropped 1.82% to 7413.12 points, while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.89% to 23661.75 points [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range, aligning with market expectations, but emphasized the need for further evaluation of tariffs' impact on inflation and the economy [3]. - Powell's comments were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September from 64% to 46% according to CME FedWatch [3][4]. - The meeting saw dissent from two Fed governors advocating for a rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on policy timing [8]. Economic Data - The U.S. second-quarter GDP grew by 3%, significantly above the expected 2.4%, with a total GDP of $236,853 billion [11]. - The core PCE price index for the second quarter rose by 2.5%, while the overall PCE index increased by 2.1%, below the expected 2.9% [11]. - July's ADP employment numbers showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 75,000 [12]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, consumer stocks, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, experienced declines, reflecting concerns over potential valuation adjustments if rate cuts do not materialize [9]. - The market's response to the Fed's decision was relatively mild, as many participants had already anticipated the direction of interest rates [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the potential overheating of the market, despite recent highs, suggesting that the rapid sell-off and rebound may not indicate overheating but rather a recovery [16].