据外媒报道，知情人士透露，在美国总统特朗普的顾问们为鲍威尔寻找替代者之际，美联储理事沃勒正 成为担任美联储主席的热门人选。 知情人士称，特朗普的顾问们对沃勒愿意基于预测而非当前数据来调整政策，以及他对整个美联储体系 的深刻了解印象深刻。 这些因讨论私人审议而要求匿名的人士表示，沃勒已就该职位与总统的团队会面，但尚未与特朗普本人 会面。 上周，沃勒是投票反对央行连续第五次维持基准利率不变的两名美联储理事会成员之一。他和他的同事 鲍曼两人都倾向于降息25个基点，理由是劳动力市场出现越来越多的疲软迹象，另外，二者均由特朗普 提名。 在美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定几天后，一份就业报告显示，在截至7月份的前三个月里，就业增长 急剧放缓，这证实了沃勒和鲍曼异议的可信度。 知情人士称，前美联储官员凯文·沃什和现任特朗普国家经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特也仍在竞争之 列，该职位将在鲍威尔的主席任期于2026年5月届满时空出。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中说，"特朗普总统将继续提名最称职、最有经验的人 选，然而，除非消息来自特朗普总统本人，否则任何关于人事决定的讨论都应被视为纯粹的猜测。" 美联储的一 ...

今日CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 93.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.9%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为64%。 ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，降息25个基点的概率为94.4%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为1.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为30.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 67.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak employment report has sparked discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last year's strategy of maintaining rates in July and significantly cutting them in September [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' employment figures being revised downwards [1]. - Following the weak employment report, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90% [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current situation has drawn parallels to last summer when the Federal Reserve also chose not to cut rates in July, but a subsequent weak employment report led to a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - Notably, the economic context differs this year, as inflation concerns are heightened due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contrasting with last year's declining inflation [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Considerations - Rick Rieder from BlackRock indicated that if the labor market continues to weaken, with job additions remaining below 100,000, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts, with a 50 basis point cut in September being a possibility [4]. - The upcoming employment report and inflation data will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic landscape [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, effective August 8, creating a significant vacancy amid President Trump's push for lower interest rates [1][2] - Kugler was appointed by former President Biden in September 2023 and was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board, previously serving as a professor at Georgetown University and a representative to the World Bank [1] - Kugler's resignation may disrupt the timeline for the succession process of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell [2] Group 2 - During the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there was notable dissent within the Fed, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][3] - The last time there were dissenting votes from Board members was in September of the previous year, indicating that such occurrences are relatively rare [2] - Recent labor market data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 115,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]

8月1日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1496，下调2点。 美联储9月降息的概率为38.2% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 13.9%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 13.9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD has declined to a five-week low, challenging the support level at 1.1500 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar maintains its rebound ahead of the FOMC event, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged [2] - Optimism surrounding a US-EU framework agreement has supported the dollar's rise, with the agreement involving a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, while key industries are exempt from tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with some policymakers favoring preventive rate cuts while others prefer to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of July 22, speculators have reduced their net long positions in euros to approximately 125.5K contracts, the lowest level in two weeks, while institutional hedgers have cut their short positions to about 177.7K contracts [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD must break above the 2025 high of 1.1830 to target the peak of 1.1909 from September 2021, potentially challenging the significant 1.2000 level [7] - Short-term support levels are identified at 1.1518, followed by the June 19 low of 1.1445 and the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1344 [8] Group 4: Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, indicating further downside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests no clear trend has formed [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and divergent signals from central banks indicate that recent gains are hard-won, with a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve or signs of trade war de-escalation needed to reverse the Euro/USD trend in the short term [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1][3]. Summary by Category LPR Data Overview - The one-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.00% as of July 21, 2025, consistent with the previous month [1]. - The five-year LPR is also held steady at 3.50%, unchanged from June 2025 [1]. - Historical data shows that the one-year LPR has been at 3.00% since April 2025, while the five-year LPR has been at 3.50% since the same period [2]. Market Implications - The decision to keep the LPR stable suggests that the central bank is likely prioritizing economic stability and growth over immediate monetary easing [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rates in July, with a 95.3% probability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy in the global context [3].

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]