新年开门红！1月5日，重点布局国产AI产业链的科创人工智能ETF华宝（589520）场内价格盘中大涨3%，近7个交易日中，有6个交易日上涨，日k线或已 走出"上行台阶"。 东吴证券表示，2026年将迎来国产算力与AI终端的全面共振。云端方面，国产GPU及AI ASIC产能释放，长鑫存储及先进制程扩产将惠及产业链。端侧方 面，AI眼镜等新终端开启创新元年，混合架构与架构优化推动场景落地。同时，3D DRAM作为关键存力将在多领域放量，高端PCB材料与芯片供电需求激 增，共同催化半导体及硬件产业链进入新一轮高景气周期。 值得关注的是，科创人工智能ETF（589520）标的指数均衡配置应用软件、终端应用、终端芯片、云端芯片四大环节，AI产业链正由云端向边缘侧发展，从 依赖海外技术向自主可控发展，科创人工智能方向契合AI产业链当下现状，或具备更大潜力。 【国产替代之光，科创自立自强】 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2026年第一个交易日，国产半导体设备龙头厂商中微公司复牌大涨12.70%，北方华创、拓荆科技、华海清科等多家设备公司联袂走强。半导体设 备ETF（561980）开盘高开涨超3%，目前涨4.51%，实时成交额超1.3亿元，连续5个交易日吸金超2.2亿元。 | 半导体设备ETF | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 561980.SH | | | | | | | | 2.130 | | BEIN | 2.038 | 开盘 | | 2.070 | | 4.51% +0.092 | | 流通常 | 12.5亿 | 流通值 | | 26.61Z | | 最 高 2.131 | | 成交量 | 66.17万 | 换字率 | | 5.29% | | 最 低 2.061 | | 成交额 | 1.39 Z | 均价 | | 2.102 | | IOPV 2.1313 | 升贴水率 4.70% | 溢折率 | -0.06% | | | | | 净值走势 招商中证半导体产业ETF(5... 2.0343 | | | | | | -0.93% | | ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant growth, with chip design, semiconductor equipment, and materials projected to rise by 62.38%, 60.86%, and 37.31% respectively by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor theme index, focusing on the aforementioned three sectors, is anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 62.33% in 2025, with the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) experiencing a net inflow of over 220 million yuan in the last five trading days [2] - The demand for semiconductor equipment is driven by advancements in AI and domestic substitution, particularly in the storage chip sector, which is reshaping the global pricing cycle [4][5] Group 2 - The storage chip segment accounts for approximately 30% of the integrated circuit market, making it a significant area for semiconductor equipment demand [5] - The global storage industry is entering a new upcycle, with DRAM and NAND prices rising since September 2024, and this trend is expected to continue through 2026 [5] - The shift towards 3D architecture in DRAM and NAND is projected to increase the service market for related equipment by approximately 1.7 times and 1.8 times respectively [6] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, which has a high concentration of leading companies in the semiconductor supply chain, with the top five companies accounting for over 50% of the index [6][8] - The CSI semiconductor index has shown a maximum increase of over 570% since the last upcycle, with a notable 63.92% increase in 2025, outperforming other semiconductor indices [7][8] - The high concentration of equipment, materials, and design sectors in the CSI semiconductor index indicates a strong potential for domestic substitution and ongoing market and policy support [8]

国产算力迎来发展新机遇：国内云厂商资本开支尚有提升空间，腾讯、阿里、百度25Q3资本开支分别 为130亿元/315亿元/34亿元，分别同比-24%/+80%/+107%。国内云厂商也同步提升远期AI投入，阿里在 今年2月宣布未来三年投入3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，看好国产算力的AI芯片、存储芯片、先 进晶圆制造、交换芯片、光芯片等方向。 AI端侧看好苹果硬件及端侧AI创新及AI/AR眼镜产业链：全球AI大模型调用量正经历高速增长，行业 已进入规模化应用爆发期。苹果的AI战略是以硬件为本、端侧优先、强隐私保护。核心能力涵盖语言 文本、图片影像、跨应用操作、个人情景理解，其AI不是单一功能或大模型，而是深度嵌入操作系 统、芯片与应用生态的"个人智能系统"，基于个人情景实现跨app执行操作。AI/AR眼镜有望不断实现 技术突破和销量上升，看好SOC芯片、光学等核心环节。 风险提示： AI资本开支低于预期、AI端侧应用不达预期、存储芯片上涨影响电子硬件销量，存储及晶圆厂扩产低 于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研究报告称，北美四大云厂商(微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊)资本开支 持续增长，并且对未来资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in January, driven by improved fundamentals and increased government investment, with a high probability of a spring rally [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - The issuance of local government special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, and central budget investments are expected to increase, leading to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals [2] - The year-on-year growth rate of listed companies' annual performance forecasts is likely to rebound significantly due to a low base effect from the previous year [2][5] - The domestic capital market is expected to see increased inflows as the market sentiment improves, aided by the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital [2][4] Market Sentiment and Performance - January will see heightened speculation around performance disclosures, with a focus on companies that exceed expectations or show significant improvements post-announcement [1][2] - The sectors of commercial aerospace, AI applications, and semiconductor equipment are highlighted as key areas of focus for investment in January [2] Style and Sector Allocation - The recommended investment style for January favors large-cap growth stocks, with suggested index combinations including CSI 300 and STAR Market 50 [3] - Sector allocation should focus on cyclical and technology sectors, with specific recommendations for industries such as power equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals [3][6] Liquidity and Capital Supply - Incremental capital is expected to maintain a stable net inflow in January, with foreign and insurance capital likely to be the main sources of this inflow [4] - The central bank is expected to implement measures to ensure liquidity remains ample, particularly around tax periods and year-end [3][4] Industry Trends and Recommendations - Industries expected to see high growth or improvement in annual reports include those with pricing power, export advantages, and sectors within TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) [5][6] - The focus on sectors with marginal improvements includes AI hardware, robotics, AI applications, non-ferrous metals, and domestic computing power [3][6] External Liquidity Factors - The Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle is expected to positively influence market risk appetite in the first half of the year, although expectations may be subject to revision based on economic data [4]

我们无法精准预测未来，但可锚定趋势躬身蓄力。 历史昭示，在宏大转折处，最大的风险往往来自认知的停滞。所有的投资都是对未来预期的下注和认知 变现。考验的是洞察力、预见性，以及面对未知的纪律和心性。此刻，比追逐短期风口更重要的，是认 清所处的历史方位；比预测巿场波动更可贵的，是建立起对长期趋势的信仰。投资的要义，亘古未变 ——于混沌中识别秩序，在波动中坚守价值。 旗杆，耸立于平芜尽处，标注方向。它植根坚实大地，连通时代脉搏，只为在风起之时，高扬旗帜。 新程正启排云上，且向东风万里扬。 放眼全球，秩序在重构，逻辑在改写。大国博弈与产业链的深度调整，反而淬炼出中国制造的坚韧与远 见。"自主可控"与"扬帆出海"，从对立的矛盾，演化为一体两翼的战略平衡。潮水的方向昭示：中国作 为全球核心增长极与创新策源地的地位无可替代。全球资产管理人正面临一个现实：远离中国市场，可 能意味着偏离业绩基准，并错失一个时代的增长机遇！ 向内审视，一场历史性的财富迁移正在上演：房地产投资属性弱化，百万亿级居民可投资资产如江河奔 涌，亟需新的价值入海口。资本市场，因其承载着创新的梦想与未来的价值，成为这片汪洋最开阔的港 湾。这既是资产配置的结构 ...

我们无法精准预测未来，但可锚定趋势躬身蓄力。 当2025年的钟声渐远，市场已然完成一场静水深流的磅礴转向——从短期估值的起伏颠簸，回归至更为 沉静坚实的基本面。这一年，主线并非纷繁的喧嚣，而是凝聚于决定未来的关键少数。产业的抉择与资 本的流向，共同指向那片孕育着创新与变革的沃土。这不仅是年度复盘的沉淀，更是一个伟大时代序曲 的定调。 宏大的国家蓝图，为这片沃土划定了前行坐标：到2035年，人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，基本实现 社会主义现代化。这绝非单纯的经济增长量化目标，更是发展范式迭代的宣言。我们迎来的，是一个从 体量增长到质量跃升的时代，一个由新质生产力驱动的未来。科技创新与产业创新，从来不是选择题， 而是通向目标的必由之路。这片深耕厚植的热土，注定要孕育出不一样的硕果！ 向内审视，一场历史性的财富迁移正在上演：房地产投资属性弱化，百万亿级居民可投资资产如江河奔 涌，亟需新的价值入海口。资本市场，因其承载着创新的梦想与未来的价值，成为这片汪洋最开阔的港 湾。这既是资产配置的结构性换轨，更是一代人财富观念的深刻觉醒！ 时代的浪潮，塑造着全新的气候。 放眼全球，秩序在重构，逻辑在改写。大国博弈与产业链的深 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of Biren Technology, a GPU manufacturer, which became the first company to go public in Hong Kong in 2026, marking six years since its founding by Zhang Wen. This timeline reflects the significant evolution in the GPU industry, particularly with the rise of generative AI, which has transformed GPUs into a critical infrastructure for the tech sector [2][4]. Group 1: Company Background and Development - Biren Technology was established in a challenging environment dominated by NVIDIA and AMD, with high risks and low success rates in the GPU sector. The development cost for a single GPU is at least $200 million, and it typically takes five years to see significant revenue [5]. - Zhang Wen, the founder, had a diverse background, including law and management roles, but lacked direct GPU experience. His unique approach helped lower the barriers for entrepreneurship in the GPU field [6][7]. - Zhang's ability to attract top talent was crucial. He successfully recruited a team with experience from leading GPU companies, which significantly contributed to Biren's early success [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions and Challenges - Biren Technology chose a more challenging path by focusing on GPGPU (General-Purpose Graphics Processing Unit) rather than specialized accelerators, which required a comprehensive software stack and long-term developer ecosystem investment [10][11]. - The company maintained a rigorous validation process during product development, emphasizing long-term sustainability over short-term efficiency. This decision was driven by the belief that reliance on specialized chips would not support sustainable growth in general computing power [11][12]. - Despite facing skepticism in 2022 regarding the industry's viability, Biren completed its chip production on schedule, which led to further investment from partners [12][13]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Prospects - By 2023, Biren Technology had demonstrated its capability to adapt and innovate, achieving significant milestones in product development and market acceptance. The company has established a full-stack autonomous controllable system, which includes both hardware and software components [15][18]. - The revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 is notable, with figures increasing from $49,900 to $337 million, and a projected revenue of approximately $589 million in the first half of 2024, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 2500% over three years [16][20]. - Biren has secured over $1.2 billion in orders, indicating strong market demand, although the overall market share for domestic GPUs remains below 1% [20][21]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the GPU industry is intensifying, and the article suggests that Biren's listing is not an endpoint but a new phase in a long-term competitive landscape, similar to NVIDIA's trajectory post-IPO [16][17]. - The focus is shifting from merely achieving product performance to building a sustainable competitive advantage through ecosystem development and cost structure optimization [17][21].

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment index has significantly outperformed the market since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of 62.3% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 42.0% [3][13] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high prosperity, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach a historical high of $760.7 billion in 2026, driven by AI [3][36] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is seeing a strong recovery in wafer fab capacity utilization and expansion willingness, supported by the AI-driven storage supercycle [3][36] Group 2 - Four key investment directions are recommended: 1. Focus on etching and thin film equipment leaders driven by AI storage supercycle [3] 2. Domestic lithography machine production is expected to achieve mass production in 2026, boosting subsystem and component companies [3] 3. ALD equipment is entering a golden development period, especially in advanced logic and storage fields [3] 4. Advanced packaging continues to follow Moore's Law, providing significant opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [3] Group 3 - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as North China Innovation, Zhongwei Company, and TuoJing Technology, as well as high-elasticity targets like XinYuanWei and HuaHaiQingKe [3] - The overall revenue of the semiconductor equipment industry is projected to grow by 36% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with leading companies maintaining high growth rates [15] - The overall net profit of the semiconductor equipment industry is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with significant profit acceleration from companies like Shengmei and TuoJing [15][24] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with AI as the core engine driving the market [36] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% from 2004 to 2024, with a significant recovery and expansion phase starting from 2023 [36] - The capital expenditure of the top eight cloud service providers is expected to increase by 40% in 2026, reaching $600 billion, further supporting the semiconductor market growth [36]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 开年攻势，指数新高 ——A 股 2026 年 1 月观点及配置建议 展望 1 月，A 股延续上行趋势，继续演绎春季攻势的概率较高。基本面在专项 债发行提速、政府投资回暖的推动下呈现边际好转；低基数背景下上市公司年 报业绩预报披露的同比增速有望明显回升；资金面受益于国内资金加仓概率提 升及人民币升值后外资回流，较为充裕。因此，A 股在 1 月继续走震荡向上走 势，创前期新高的概率进一步加大。1 月，围绕业绩披露的博弈情绪将会明显 升温。业绩超预期或者业绩披露后靴子落地的方向值得重点关注。总体来看， 我们依然关注投资驱动顺周期涨价方向，服务业消费和以国产算力为代表的自 主可控领域。 ❑流动性与资金供需：1 月增量资金有望整体保持平稳净流入，外资及险资有望 成为主力增量资金。宏观流动性方面，针对税期和跨年等季节性因素，央行在 月中税期前后及 12 月 18 日重启 14 天期逆回购操作，直接覆盖元旦假期资金 需求，尽管资金价格在年末有所收紧，但与往年相比，今年的波动幅度相对较 小，跨年后 1 月资金价格有望重回宽松。外部流动性方面，2026 年美联储仍 ...