行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.860 | 120.900 | 121.090 | 120.960 | 0.230 | 0.19 | 74267 | 118951 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - In June, the CPI data showed mixed trends, with the year - on - year change turning from decline to increase and the month - on - month decline narrowing. The core CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, mainly supported by the rising gold price. The PPI year - on - year decline widened, indicating weak overall price data. Due to insufficient domestic demand and high external demand uncertainty, China still needs a loose monetary environment. The bond market is strengthening, and in July, it is expected to have a short - to - long - term rally, with long - term bonds likely to break through key levels [1][4]. 2. CPI Analysis 2.1 Core CPI - In June, the core CPI year - on - year increased by 0.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The "other goods and services" sub - item grew significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1% in June, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This was mainly supported by the 41.3% year - on - year increase in domestic gold futures prices in June. After excluding this sub - item, the CPI and core CPI in June were - 0.1% and + 0.3% year - on - year respectively, showing a weak overall price level [1][9]. 2.2 Food CPI - In June, the food CPI year - on - year decline narrowed, but the month - on - month decline widened. It decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, a narrowing of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, an expansion of 0.2 percentage points. Fresh fruit prices were the main drag, with a 3.3% month - on - month decline, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.07 percentage points. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 0.7% month - on - month due to high - temperature and rainy weather [1]. 2.3 Non - food CPI - In June, the non - food CPI year - on - year changed from flat to an increase of 0.1%, and the month - on - month change turned from decline to flat. The rise in international oil prices was the main factor. The year - on - year decline of energy prices narrowed by 1.0 percentage points, and the downward pull on CPI year - on - year decreased by about 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. Gasoline prices rose by 0.4% month - on - month, driving energy prices to turn from a 1.7% year - on - year decline to a 0.1% increase [2]. 3. PPI Analysis 3.1 Production Materials PPI - In June, the production materials PPI year - on - year decline widened, and the month - on - month decline remained the same. It decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, an expansion of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.6% month - on - month. This was mainly affected by the decline in industrial raw material prices and the increase in green power. Most domestic manufacturing raw material prices declined, and the prices of some industries such as ferrous metals and non - metallic minerals decreased due to weather and other factors. Green power increase also led to a decrease in power generation costs and related industry prices [3]. 3.2 Living Materials PPI - In June, the living materials PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points. Durable consumer goods decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points. Clothing and general daily necessities prices increased by 0.1% and 0.8% year - on - year respectively, with the increase expanding by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, possibly related to consumption - boosting policies [3]. 4. Market Outlook - The bond market is in a strengthening process. With the continuous loosening of funds, short - term interest rates are expected to decline more significantly in July. After the short - term decline, the yield curve will steepen, opening up space for long - term interest rates. The market is expected to have a short - to - long - term rally in July, and long - term bonds are likely to break through key levels. It is recommended to maintain a relatively high duration level, and a barbell - shaped portfolio allocation is relatively more advantageous. The report believes that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to the 1.4% - 1.5% level [4][25].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

＃summary＃ 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.190 | 121.070 | 120.920 | 120.860 | -0.270 | -0.22 | ...

Macro Overview - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 2.7% [7][12] - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [5][4] - The focus of structural monetary policy tools will be on technology, consumption, foreign trade, real estate, and the stock market [5][4] Industrial Profit Analysis - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded a cumulative 4.97% from January to May, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.22 percentage points [8] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [11] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a significant profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the equity market, particularly in sectors related to new consumption and high-tech manufacturing, while maintaining a cautious stance on the bond market [13] - The anticipated decline in interest rates may provide a favorable environment for small-cap stocks, especially in the technology sector [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy continuity and the impact of international trade negotiations on domestic industries [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Ying Shi Innovation, a leader in the panoramic camera market, is projected to achieve revenues of 5.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.3% from 2022 to 2024 [27] - The company holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market, indicating strong competitive positioning [29] - The demand for smart imaging devices is diversifying, with applications in outdoor sports and vlogging, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [28]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.4% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures opened with a decline of 0.15%, the 10-year futures down 0.04%, the 5-year down 0.03%, and the 2-year futures unchanged [1] ETF Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF, Bosera (511130), experienced fluctuations, with an intraday drop of 35 basis points and a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] Monetary Policy Insights - Recent institutional reports suggest that July typically sees "spontaneous" easing in the market, with government bonds and credit demand unlikely to create liquidity "shocks" [1] - The central bank's assessment of the economy is not yet urgent but is beginning to focus on downward risks, particularly in manufacturing due to tariff disruptions [1] - Historical data indicates that when the manufacturing PMI falls into contraction for three consecutive months, liquidity tends to ease, potentially triggering adjustments in monetary policy [1] Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment in June reached its loosest state of the year, with the average funding rate dropping to approximately 1.56%, a new low for the year [2] - The central bank has increased its funding injections, particularly in medium to long-term funds, to counterbalance the pressures from government bond supply and maturing certificates of deposit [2] - In June, government bond issuance exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, while the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit surpassed 4 trillion yuan [2] Government Bond ETF Details - The 30-year government bond ETF Bosera (511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The current ICE raw sugar futures price has partially reflected the expected high - yield in Brazil. After breaking through the key support level of 16.5 cents per pound, price - sensitive buying has significantly increased, and the basis is strong. With the recent deterioration of weather in Brazil, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly after the July delivery. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week. Although there were profit - taking orders from long - position holders at the 5800 - level, there is still room for upward movement based on the position structure and market sentiment, so long positions can be held for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The focus of the raw sugar market has shifted to the new crushing season in Brazil. Different institutions have released forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil [6]. - **Demand**: As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%. The cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons. The industrial inventory at the end of May was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, about 0.19 million tons more than the same period last year [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 27, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts was 23,992, with 0 valid forecasts, totaling 23,992, down from 27,669 last week [6]. - **Basis**: The spot transaction price of sugar in Guangxi was 6,012 yuan per ton. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was about 5,574 yuan per ton, and that from Thailand was 5,680 yuan per ton. The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week, and the out - of - quota import profit remained flat [6]. - **Macro**: The short - term geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, which has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September have increased, and there are expectations of incremental reserve policies in China, which have boosted market confidence in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Long positions can continue to be held. The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. After the July delivery, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week, and there is still room for upward movement, so long positions can be held for now [6]. 2. Weekly Sugar Market News - The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production and sales both increased year - on - year [15]. - As of the week of June 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 74, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 149,700 tons or 5.25% week - on - week [15]. - In the second half of May, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 8.86% year - on - year, with an increase in the sugar - making ratio [16]. 3. Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [21]. - **Domestic Sales**: The domestic sugar market has entered the pure sales stage. The cumulative sugar sales as of May were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [25]. - **Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports**: There are data on Brazilian sugar exports and domestic sugar imports, but specific trends are not detailed in the summary part [32]. - **Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders**: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [38]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 27,669 last week to 23,992 as of June 27 [48].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，市场流动性边际宽 松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底需要偏宽松的货币 ...

新华财经上海6月16日电（记者杨溢仁）在基本面、资金面利好支撑的背景下，债市投资者从"看多"转 向"做多"。分析人士指出，当前各机构择券主要锚定"资金面"，考虑到货币宽松有望进一步延续，则眼 下"止盈未至"，仍可积极布局。 债市依旧"顺风" 根据券商调研，当前的债市情绪已接近年内最乐观值。 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至6月16日收盘，银行间10年期国债收益率已从4月 1日的1.81%回落至1.64%附近。 "就机构行为来看，临近半年末，公募基金'冲'收益诉求增强，中长期债基久期回升。聚焦交易层面， 前述情况更为突出，基金主力买入10年、30年期利率债券，同时加大了中期票据的买入力度，说明基金 在增配中短期信用债拿票息的同时，也在拉长久期博取资本利得。"一位机构交易员告诉记者，"不仅如 此，现阶段债市整体的杠杆率也在回升，并已超过去年水平。" 记者注意到，一季度债市资金面整体均衡偏紧，DR007运行在政策利率上方，对应债市杠杆率持续处于 低位，远低于季节性水平。而反观当前，在央行提前公布买断式逆回购操作（精准对冲流动性压力）， 且大型商业银行密集购买短债的背景下，6月虽面临跨季但资金面并不紧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic attitude towards the bond market, suggesting investors retain corresponding positions and durations, with a recommended combination of 3-year policy financial bonds + 10-year treasury bonds, and an increase in holdings of 3 - 5-year credit bonds and perpetual bonds [3][60] 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank has adjusted its monetary policy operating target to DR001, and the current funds have not reached the lower limit of the new model. Considering the central bank's goal of reducing costs, there is a possibility of seeing DR001 between 1.2% - 1.3% in the future, and the central bank's recent large - scale reverse repurchase operations have released a signal to stabilize liquidity [2][22] - The pressure of export decline may become more prominent after July. The economic data in May was still weak, with low credit growth, high fiscal deposits, and continued negative growth in CPI and PPI. The inflation - low state may persist for some time [2][3] - The short - end of the bond market needs time to price in the loose funds. Although the short - end interest rate has not responded significantly to the current loose funds, if the funds remain loose, the short - end and long - end interest rates still have room to decline [3][56] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Policy's Operating Target Adjusted to DR001, Current Funds Not at New Model's Lower Limit - Historically, the central bank used DR007 as the operating target, but due to the influence of non - bank behavior on the supply and demand of 7 - day funds, it was difficult to balance the control of DR007 and overnight interest rates. Since 2023, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate has increased, while the deviation of DR001 has narrowed [8][9] - In 2024, the central bank created temporary overnight repurchase and reverse repurchase tools, indicating a more explicit rule for overnight interest rate control. In 2025 Q1, the quarterly monetary policy report also replaced DR007 with DR001 and its upper and lower limits [16][22] - As of June, the lowest value of DR001 has dropped to 1.36%, but the lower limit of 1.2% has not been reached. The central bank's recent 4000 - billion 6 - month reverse repurchase operations released a signal to stabilize liquidity, and there is a possibility of further decline in the funds' interest rate center [2][22] 3.2 Export Decline Pressure May Intensify after July, May's Credit Remained Weak, and Government Deposits Were Not Released - The May export growth rate dropped from 8.1% in April to 4.8%. The impact of "grabbing exports" was not obvious. Although it may boost June's data, the recent container freight volume growth was moderate, and the decline pressure of exports may intensify after July [27][29] - In May, the new social financing increment was 2.29 trillion, and the stock growth rate remained at 8.7%. The new credit was 620 billion, lower than expected. The decline in bill financing was the main reason for the under - expectation of credit, and the entity's financing demand was not active [32][35] - In May, fiscal deposits increased by 880 billion, significantly higher than expected, possibly due to the slow progress of fiscal expenditure and the use of special refinancing bonds, or the non - expenditure of the special treasury bonds. The inflation data remained in negative growth, and the economic heat showed no significant improvement [36][41] 3.3 Short - End Needs Time to Price in Loose Funds, Temporarily Hold Positions and Durations - Recently, ultra - long bonds have performed strongly, which may be due to traders' strong sentiment towards the bond market. Whether the market is at the end of the rally depends on whether the short - end space can be opened [53] - Although the current funds are loose, the short - end interest rate has not responded significantly. The central bank's new operating target of DR001 indicates that there is still room for the overnight interest rate to decline, and the policy rate may be adjusted in Q3 [56] - If the funds remain loose, the short - end interest rate has room to decline. Considering the possible decline in the expected yield of wealth management products and insurance rates in the second half of the year, it is recommended to hold a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year treasury bonds and increase holdings of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds and perpetual bonds [60]