特朗普表示，支持立即降息将是他选择美联储主席人选的一项必要条件 。英媒：特朗普本周启动美联 储主席人选的最后一轮面试，哈塞特领跑。 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，现在降息是正确的举措。降息上还有很大空间。 【机构观点】 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储公布12月利率决议，如期宣布降息25个基点至3.50%-3.75%区间。然 而，此次决议被市场广泛解读为一次"鹰派降息"，因其内部出现显著分歧（投票结果为9-3)，且政策声 明与利率点阵图均释放出强烈的"即将暂停"信号。降息本身作为传统的货币宽松利好，其影响已在决议 前的市场上涨中基本兑现。而决议中透露的更高门槛和更少次数的未来路径，实质性地削弱了市场对 2026年持续大幅宽松的预期。这意味着，驱动贵金属中期上涨的核心动力——利率下行预期——正在减 弱。短期内，贵金属价格（尤其是黄金）可能因利好出尽而面临高位获利了结压力，上行空间受限。市 场焦点将迅速从降息转向经济数据（特别是就业与通胀)，以验证美联储"观望"立场的持续性。预计金 价将进入高位震荡阶段，需警惕白银因市场重新定价利率路径而出现的回调风险。关键支撑位的坚守情 况，将成为判断后市能否重拾动力的重要 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Long - term Hold**: Gold, Silver, Copper [1] - **Pressured**: Zinc, Lead, Tin [1] - **Rebound Pressured**: Aluminum [1] - **Weak**: Nickel, Industrial Silicon [1] - **Relatively Strong**: Polysilicon [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Lithium Carbonate [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision, geopolitical factors, and policy changes have significant impacts on the prices of various metals. For example, the Fed's December interest rate cut and policy stance shift affect gold and silver prices; Indonesia's gold tax increase supports gold prices in the medium - to - long - term. - The supply - demand relationship of different metals varies. Copper is affected by tight copper concentrate supply and green demand; zinc shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand; aluminum has an over - supply situation in alumina and a slowdown in aluminum ingot destocking. - Different investment strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market conditions, such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper, and short - selling on rebounds for zinc [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a key shift in policy stance. Indonesia increased the gold tax rate. There was a short - term "dovish" trading in the market after the Fed's decision, and the Fed announced to start buying short - term Treasury bonds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed's policy entered a "data - dependent" waiting mode, with internal differences. Indonesia's gold tax policy reduces the supply of low - value - added gold and provides structural support for gold prices. Long - term gold benefits from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has a delivery risk event [2][3]. - **Trading Logic**: Long - term gold has investment value, and for silver, long - term positions can be held while being cautious in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the 935 support for domestic gold. Long - term value - based positions should be held. Be vigilant about the high volatility risk of silver in the short - term [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the copper market was in a high - level shock. The prices of various copper products showed different changes, and there were also changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load. High copper prices suppress demand, and the consumption is in the off - season. COMEX copper continues to draw global copper inventories [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, hold copper long positions and set trailing stops when the price rises. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 【90000, 95000】 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated in a narrow range at a high level. The prices of zinc products showed a downward trend, and there were changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate continued to decline, and the supply was expected to shrink. Consumption entered the off - season, and the overseas LME zinc inventory increased while the domestic social inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, zinc oscillates at a high level with limited upside space. Sellers can set up short positions at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 【22800, 23300】 for Shanghai zinc and 【3000, 3100】 US dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price rebounded under pressure, and the alumina market was weak [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the alumina surplus continues. The electrolytic aluminum maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic aluminum ingot destocking slows down. The consumption off - season effect is obvious [10][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is 【21500 - 22300】 [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounded under pressure, and the stainless - steel market was also under pressure [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The impact of overseas production cuts in Indonesia gradually weakened. The terminal consumption of stainless steel entered the off - season, and the stainless - steel social inventory increased slightly [14][16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is 【115000 - 118000】 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with increased positions and volume, rising more than 2% [19]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. The terminal demand remains strong, and the price has no significant downside space. It will correct recently and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilizing [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 【94800 - 97500】 [21]

12月11日：上交易日周三（12月10日）：国际黄金触底回升收阳，再度收线在短期均线上方，多头力量 加强，暗示后市仍有继续反弹的动力，再度上探4260美元附近阻力。突破则有望触及4340美元或更高位 置。反之继续遇阻则有维持当下的震荡区间波动继续调整走盘。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4207.69美元/盎司，先行盘整后转回落，到欧盘及美盘大部分时段，又处 于4188-4205美元区间内震荡，一直到凌晨3点时段开盘，金价走低触及日内低点4181.85美元，迅速反 弹回升收复日内跌幅，录得日内高点4238.49美元，最终有所回撤，收于4228.35美元，日振幅56.64美 元，收涨20.66美元，涨幅0.49%。 影响上，日内在美联储利率决议公布前延续近日的震荡区间表现观望，一直到周四凌晨，美联储如期降 息25个基点，虽然一度卖事实走低录得日内低点； 但由于又表示会在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债（变相放水），以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息 提供明确指引，但表示"不包含未来加息"情景，被市场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能；再加上 特朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应降至全球最低。进一步提升了市场对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a volatile pullback on December 11, but the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant inflow of funds, indicating strong investor interest in the nonferrous metals sector amid favorable overseas liquidity conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:26 AM, the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose over 1.11%, with an intraday peak approaching 2%, and recorded a net subscription of 23 million shares, resulting in a net inflow of over 35 million yuan [1]. - The latest fund size of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) exceeded 3.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Most component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced gains, with Zijin Mining rising by 2.83% and Zhongjin Gold by 2.34%, while Northern Rare Earth and China Aluminum saw slight declines [3]. - The top ten component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with varying performance metrics [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [4]. - The Fed plans to expand its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, which is expected to support liquidity in the market [4]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - Long-term projections suggest that the copper price may strengthen due to the ongoing U.S. rate-cutting cycle, supply-side constraints, and new demand drivers from the energy sector [8]. - Supply-side issues, including frequent mining accidents and production interruptions in major copper mines, are expected to tighten the copper market, leading to a projected supply shortfall of 150,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 5: Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow due to significant investments in renewable energy and the development of new power systems, with a focus on enhancing grid and storage capabilities [10]. - The push for technological advancements, particularly in AI, is expected to drive substantial increases in electricity demand, further boosting copper consumption [10]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from the ongoing super cycle in nonferrous metals, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold [11][13]. - The ETF's index has a leading copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the nonferrous sector [13][15].

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed strong performance on December 10, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, leading real estate ETFs to rank high in the ETF market's gainers list [1][3] - Notable real estate ETFs included: - 159768.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.575 and a daily increase of 3.79% - 159707.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.64 and a daily increase of 3.73% - 512200.SH Real Estate ETF with a price of 1.534 and a daily increase of 3.09% [4] Group 2: Agriculture Sector - The agriculture sector performed well, with themes such as seed industry, land transfer, and aquatic products showing strong performance, leading agriculture-related ETFs to rank among the top gainers [2][5] - The sentiment in the seed industry has been notably boosted, with ongoing commercialization of biological breeding benefiting leading companies [5] Group 3: Technology Sector - Technology ETFs experienced significant inflows, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan last week, and continued inflows in the first two trading days of this week [2][9] - The top net inflows for technology ETFs included: - 159352.OF Southern CSI A500 ETF with a net inflow of 15.66 billion yuan - 159600.OF Harvest CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF with a net inflow of 10.95 billion yuan [10] Group 4: Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs were actively traded, with several types such as Short-term Bond ETF, Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF, and Yinhua Daily Benefit ETF seeing transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [7][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF had a transaction amount of 401.12 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 54.79% [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Institutions suggest focusing on gold and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment directions, with gold expected to benefit from potential monetary easing and a shift in global credit dynamics [11] - The release of China's first commercial insurance innovative drug catalog is seen as a significant step for the innovative drug industry, potentially enhancing investment opportunities in the healthcare sector [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Fed rate cut expectations boost the precious metals market sentiment, with London platinum and palladium prices breaking through the trading range, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showing a slightly stronger intraday performance. In the medium to long term, platinum may continue to see price support under expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and long - term expansion of demand in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, with the market shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by rate cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective option again. Recently, palladium prices have shown stronger resilience than platinum, and a subsequent catch - up rally may continue [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 444.45, up 4.75; palladium's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 387.65, up 4.15. Platinum's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 10387, down 277; palladium's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 3179, up 90 [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 438.26, up 7.18; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 366, up 6. The platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 6.19, up 2.43; the palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 21.65, up 1.85. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 9966, down 243; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 3003, down 342 [2] Supply and Demand - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2] Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.24, up 0.27; the VIX volatility index is 16.93, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.01 [2] Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for the Fed to cut rates. US President Trump said he will use support for immediate and substantial rate cuts as a "litmus test" for the new Fed chair and may adjust tariff policies to lower some commodity prices. ADP data shows that US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses, and US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to slowly adjust monetary easing until it achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target and the policy rate returns to the natural rate level, and will increase bond purchases in "special cases" due to the recent rapid rise in interest rates [2] Key Points of Attention - At 03:00 on December 11, the Fed will announce its December FOMC meeting interest rate decision [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating the last interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve this year, with a consensus leaning towards a rate cut. The potential new chair has indicated that the negative impact of a government shutdown on the economy is greater than expected, but a stronger economic rebound is anticipated in Q1 next year, suggesting that a "cautious rate cut" is appropriate, with a prediction of a 25 basis point cut in December [1][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall Hong Kong stock market has experienced a pullback, but there is a noticeable trend of capital inflow, particularly into the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130), which has seen a net inflow of 2.478 billion yuan over the past month, bringing its total size to 42.862 billion yuan and shares to 5.8522 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 25.5 billion shares [1][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 23.29 times, which is at the lower end of the past five years' range, making it more attractive compared to the Nasdaq's 42.21 times and the STAR Market's 152.29 times [1][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Hong Kong Tech Sector - The external environment suggests that maintaining monetary easing is crucial, especially with a weak job market, and a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut could alleviate global liquidity pressures, benefiting interest-sensitive Hong Kong tech assets [2][7]. - Internally, continuous inflow of southbound funds, improving profitability of leading companies, and low valuation levels are expected to provide resilience for the Hong Kong tech sector [2][7]. - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on liquidity turning points and sectors that have undergone significant adjustments, such as technology and pharmaceuticals, while also considering alpha opportunities in consumer goods [2][7]. Group 3: Hang Seng Tech ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes 30 strong R&D internet platforms and tech manufacturing companies, covering various sectors such as internet, media, software, automotive, and semiconductors, making it a comprehensive and representative index [3][7]. - The ETF offers advantages such as large scale, superior liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with a management fee of only 0.2% per year, positioning it as a key tool for investors looking to invest in core Hong Kong tech assets [3][7].

日本银行总裁植田和男在众议院预算委员会上答辩（12月9日） 日银总裁植田和男9日表示："将从促进市场形成稳定利率的角度出发，灵活实施增加国债购买额等操 作"，欧美市场参与者认为"这与货币政策正常化背道而驰"，作出了抛售日元的反应…… 市场上认为"日本政府最终可能被迫进行实质性日元买入干预"的声音越来越多。新加坡星展集团控股公 司（DBS GroupHoldings）本周发布的最新汇率展望报告指出，虽然预计美国持续降息会导致美元走 弱，但"仅就美元兑日元汇率而言，美国的货币宽松政策是美元走弱的必要条件，却并非充分条件"。报 告总结称："如果日本的财政风险等因素未能阻碍日本央行的政策正常化，日本国债收益率未能实现有 序上行，则日元会下跌，最终极有可能引发日元买入干预"。 如果日元贬值态势加剧，日元兑欧元及澳元的下跌行情也将扩大到日元兑美元汇率，从而抵消"美元走 弱"的效果。9日，日元兑欧元汇率一度跌至1欧元兑182.5~182.9日元区间，刷新历史最低值，日元兑澳 元汇率也一度触及1澳元兑104.0~104.5日元区间，创下今年新低。日银总裁植田和男关于增加国债操作 的言论给外汇市场带来了巨大影响。 日经QUIC ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with silver prices experiencing narrow fluctuations due to a stable dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven buying [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in its final meeting of the year, potentially bringing the target range down to 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - Recent inflation indicators show a slowdown in the disinflation process, and mixed signals from the labor market have led investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding monetary easing before 2026 [2]. - Data on U.S. household spending and inflation, particularly the preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, indicate a weakening disinflation momentum [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Analysis - Silver maintains a long-term bullish trend, but short-term movements are characterized by upward corrections followed by declines, with key support levels at 54-55 [3]. - Platinum prices are stable, with traders closely monitoring the dollar for new trading catalysts, needing to hold above the critical support area of 1620-1630 to build short-term upward momentum [3]. - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is cautious, with investors focusing on monetary policy signals and macroeconomic data for guidance [1][2].

国债期货周报：表现结构分化，等待企稳信号 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 相关数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 ◼【策略推荐】 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周债市表现进一步分化，中短端走势偏震荡，但超长端调整加大。除明年货币宽松有望延续，而通胀预期已出现改善这 一基础叙事外，当前超长债投资者结构较为脆弱，市场对明年超长债供需失衡的担忧有所发酵以及海外部分国家长债收益率高位运行 等或也是导致超长端表现格外偏弱的重要原因。后续来看，虽然我们依旧认为当前基本面及流动性现状并不支持国债收益率持续走高 ，但短期内债市走势更多受投资者行为主导，在央行释放更为明确的呵护信号，抬升市场配 ...