Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, but Powell may struggle to present a "hawkish cut," leading the market to potentially bet more aggressively on further cuts in January [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market expects a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with economic forecasts suggesting an upward revision for growth in 2025-2026, while unemployment rate predictions may also rise [3]. - The median dot plot may indicate two rate cuts next year, with the potential for a more dovish stance from the new Fed chair, Hassett, raising concerns about long-term interest rates [3][6]. Group 2: Liquidity Management and RMPs - Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will announce a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) plan, starting in January with monthly purchases of $45 billion in Treasury securities, exceeding market expectations [4][11]. - This liquidity injection is expected to support arbitrage trading and maintain a low volatility environment, benefiting the front-end market [4][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The anticipated decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% is likely to occur, driven by the "buy the rumor" strategy surrounding Hassett's nomination, which may also lower 30-year mortgage rates below 6% [7][9]. - Bank of America maintains an overweight recommendation on agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and CMBS, expecting the MOVE index to decline further, leading to a tightening of spreads [9]. Group 4: Credit and Securitized Asset Allocation - In the credit market, if the new Fed chair adopts a dovish stance, investment-grade corporate bond spreads may initially narrow due to duration chasing, while the yield curve between 10-year and 30-year bonds may flatten [13]. - CLOs are highlighted as resilient assets with good carry yield and price stability, while high-yield bonds face challenges due to volatility driven by AI and shifting Fed expectations [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite the Federal Reserve signaling a potential 25 basis point rate cut in December, the market remains skeptical about the credibility of this "hawkish cut" stance [1][3] - Market expectations suggest a 95% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with projections indicating an upward revision of economic growth forecasts for 2025-2026, alongside a potential increase in unemployment rate predictions [1][2] - The anticipated announcement of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) plan, involving monthly purchases of $45 billion in Treasury bills starting in January, is expected to exceed market expectations and support a low volatility environment [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that Powell may struggle to maintain a credible hawkish stance due to the release of significant economic data before the January meeting, which could lead to more aggressive market pricing for a rate cut [3][4] - The nomination of Hassett as the potential new Fed Chair is causing shifts in fixed income product return logic, with expectations that the 10-year Treasury yield could fall below 4%, benefiting the housing market as mortgage rates decline [4][6] - The credit market outlook suggests that if the new Fed Chair is perceived as extremely dovish, investment-grade corporate bond spreads may initially narrow, while CLOs are viewed as strong buy candidates due to their stable pricing and yield characteristics [8] Group 3 - The liquidity injection from the RMPs is expected to directly benefit the front-end market, with recommendations to go long on the January SOFR/Federal Funds rate spread, as historical data indicates that increased liquidity typically leads to a rapid decline in SOFR relative to FF [12] - The municipal bond market is projected to see a total issuance of $640 billion in 2026, with strategies suggesting buying and holding long-duration high-rated municipal bonds in the first half of 2026 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December with a 95% probability, but there are concerns that this cut may be a "hawkish cut," indicating that future rate cuts may not be as favorable [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The potential "hawkish cut" may lead to a weaker-than-expected rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with increased market volatility anticipated [1] - Investors are seeking a "safe haven" amid this uncertain environment, with the Hong Kong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF (513910) being viewed as such a refuge [1] Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The index tracked by the ETF has a high dividend yield of 6.65% over the past year, providing a "dividend safety cushion" that can offer some buffer against market fluctuations [1] - The ETF has achieved an average daily trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan from November 9 to December 8, ranking first among similar products that combine "Hong Kong stocks," "central enterprises," and "dividend" concepts [1] Group 3: Investment Logic - The combination of high liquidity and strong consensus around the ETF indicates that it is not a niche product but rather a mainstream "safe haven" asset [1] - Investors are positioning themselves to avoid external volatility while still aiming to earn stable "interest" through high dividends, which this ETF effectively addresses [1]

Group 1 - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, according to Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir [1] - There is a divergence in views on rate cuts between Fed Chair Powell and NEC Director Hassett, which is reshaping market expectations for monetary policy in 2025 [1] - Nomura Securities suggests that if the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal, weakening bonds and stocks while strengthening the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market will be affected by the Fed's rate cut stance, whether hawkish or dovish, with expectations that a hawkish cut may limit the rebound in Hong Kong stocks [2] - The market currently favors the Hong Kong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF (513910), which has a high dividend yield of 6.65% as of December 8, providing a strong safety net amid upcoming volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, but concerns about a cautious post-cut signal may lead to upward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, impacting dollar-denominated commodities like gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have slightly retreated from early week highs, trading around $4,195, as concerns about a "hawkish rate cut" increase the cost of holding gold, leading to a more conservative bullish sentiment [1] - The key trading range for gold is identified as $4,170 to $4,220, with expectations of volatility until clear policy signals are provided [4] Group 2: U.S. Treasury and Stock Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is experiencing upward pressure, causing the Dow Jones to decline approximately 200 points, falling below the 48,000 mark, as previously accumulated market optimism is eroded [2] - If the 10-year yield continues to rise alongside the dollar, gold will face downward pressure; conversely, if yields decline and data is weak, gold prices may recover quickly [5] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer inflation expectations remain stable at around 3.2%, with improved optimism regarding employment; however, many households feel financially worse off compared to last year, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3] - The discussion around presidential powers by the Supreme Court raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, increasing the sensitivity of policy communication [3] Group 4: Market Sensitivity and Trading Strategy - The current market is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's post-rate cut attitude, with assets expected to fluctuate until policy decisions are made; patience is advised in trading until key data and policy announcements occur [5]

本周全球金融市场迎来罕见的央行"超级周"，美联储年内最后一次政策会议无疑是核心焦点。尽管市场 几乎完全消化了本周降息25个基点的预期，但投资者愈发担心此次降息可能伴随鹰派语气，甚至被视为 一次"鹰派降息（hawkish cut）"。在不确定性升温的背景下，周一美股承压下跌，美国国债收益率与 美元同步走强，而日本强震导致日元大幅回落，进一步推动避险资金重新布局。 美股下跌、债市走强：市场静待美联储关键会议 随着FOMC会议周三到来，投资者普遍保持谨慎。周一美股三大股指悉数回落：道指下跌159.43点，跌 幅0.33%；标普500指数下跌0.30%；纳斯达克指数收跌0.17%。整体来看，利率敏感型板块承压较重， 市场在政策落地前明显减少仓位。 分析人士指出，本次会议存在较高的"分歧风险"。自1990年以来，美联储仅9次出现三张或以上反对 票，而本次会议可能成为第十次。若内部出现显著裂痕，将加大市场波动。 美元反弹，日元遭重挫：日本强震或迫使日银推迟加息 美债收益率上行亦显示市场对"鹰派降息"有所防备。10年期美国国债收益率上涨4.9个基点至4.188%， 盘中触及4.19%，为9月26日以来最高，且实现连续第三日 ...

基本面： 整体来看，收益率上升往往压缩黄金的吸引力，因为无息黄金在高息环境下面临机会成本。但美联储鹰派降息预期、地缘政治紧张、货币波动和债券市场反 应，都在为黄金铺设长期上行路径。交易者本周重点关注美联储利率决议及美联储主席鲍威尔讲话。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得小阴线收盘显示承压，盘中最低挑战至4175美元附近后维持震荡报收，短期或陷入4200上下展开争夺等待市场更多信号。1--4小时 级别，短线走势自4000关口企稳上涨后上周盘中维持收敛破位后停止状态，至本周盘中仍受限于此前4265高点后拉锯。隔夜盘中尝试下探测试4175美元附近 后仍收回区区间内震荡令短线表现缺乏方向。截止当前亚盘，价格暂承压4200关口附近徘徊等待进一步表现，日内交易者或仍关注震荡区间内运行为主，留 意4175--4245争夺。 操作思路： 周二（12月9日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅反弹并略显承压，暂仍维持4200关口下方徘徊，目前交投于4193美元附近。周一现货黄金价格小幅回落，每盎司 收报4190.48美元，下跌0.2%，而美国期金结算价则下跌0.6%至每盎司4217.7美元，市场在美联储政策会议前夕的短暂喘息，投资者们正屏息 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-09 美联储12月议息会议在即 警惕"鹰派降息"风险 市场分析 美联储12月议息会议在即；现阶段市场普遍认为美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。市场将高度关注鲍威尔新闻发 布会问答环节，以及本年度最后一份"点阵图"。关于降息幅度及未来降息次数，美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞 特认为，必须关注数据，同时审慎行动。经济数据方面，美国劳工统计局将不会发布10月生产者价格指数（PPI）。 由于政府停摆，劳工统计局正在延迟收集10月数据。根据其网站信息，劳工统计局计划在2026年1月14日发布的2025 年11月PPI新闻稿中一并公布10月数据。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-08，沪金主力合约开于962.34元/克，收于958.70元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.24%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.04元/克，收于953.50元/克，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.54%。 2025-12-08，沪银主力合约开于13666.00元/千克，收于13706.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.14%。当日成交 量为2033731手，持仓量为 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold prices remains weak, but the long-term bullish perspective is unchanged, with a target of reaching $5000 per ounce in the future [6]. Price Movement - On December 8, gold opened at $4196.40 per ounce, peaked at $4218.74, and then fell to a low of $4176.27, closing at $4190.49, marking a daily decline of $5.91 or 0.14% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a consolidation range until the Federal Reserve's decision is announced, with short-term trading strategies focusing on fluctuations [5]. Economic Indicators - Attention is drawn to the upcoming U.S. NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and JOLTs job openings data, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Policy - Despite expectations of a hawkish rate cut from the Federal Reserve, there are signals of caution regarding future easing policies, which may limit bullish momentum for gold in the short term [6]. - Historically, short-term pullbacks during rate cut cycles have presented buying opportunities for gold, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk factors [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish outlooks, but December's momentum appears weaker, requiring a breakout above $4400 to sustain upward movement [8]. - Weekly indicators show diminishing bullish momentum, yet the main trend remains above key moving averages, suggesting potential for further gains [8]. - Daily analysis indicates a current consolidation phase, with expectations of support around $4155 and $4111, while resistance is noted at $4210 and $4228 [10]. Silver Outlook - For silver, support levels are identified at $57.65 and $57.05, with resistance at $58.60 and $59.00 [11].