Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is responding to competitive pressures and short-seller criticisms through unusual public and private actions, which may indicate a lack of confidence rather than quell investor concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Market Response - Nvidia's stock fell approximately 2.6% on the day of its public statement, reaching a new closing low in over two months, while Alphabet's stock rose 1.6%, nearing a market capitalization of $4 trillion [1]. - The company's unusual communication strategy has led analysts to perceive it as "reactive," suggesting that a confident leader would rely on performance and products rather than feeling compelled to defend against every criticism [9]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia publicly asserted its GPU technology is "a generation ahead" of Google's offerings, emphasizing its ability to run all AI models across various computing scenarios [3]. - Concerns are growing that if major clients like Meta shift to Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), it could signify a breach in Nvidia's dominant market position, which currently holds over 90% of the AI chip market [5]. Group 3: Internal Communications - Nvidia distributed a seven-page memo to Wall Street analysts to counter claims of accounting fraud, circular financing, and an AI bubble, particularly addressing criticisms from notable investors like Michael Burry [2][6]. - The memo clarified that Nvidia's accounting practices are sound and that the company does not engage in special purpose entity financing, while also defending the depreciation timelines of its GPUs [6][7].

【#谷歌母公司股价飙涨近70%##纳指暴涨创半年纪录#】当地时间周一，美国科技股出现反弹，纳斯达 克综合指数创下六个月来最大单日涨幅。过去几周，美股市场基本围绕着两件事摇摆，一是人工智能交 易的可持续性，二是美联储是否会继续降息。多位美联储官员主张12月降息，市场预期升温，CME联 邦利率期货显示：目前市场押注美联储12月降息25个基点的概率，从一周前的约40%，飙升到隔夜的 80%以上。在AI交易方面，谷歌母公司Alphabet成了近期投资者的关注焦点。AI热潮推动股价飙升，今 年谷歌母公司股价已上涨近70%，目前市值逼近4万亿美元。但需要注意，隔夜，有"大空头"之称的投 资人迈克尔·伯里再度公开警告AI泡沫，他综述了过往自己成功预测了00年互联网泡沫、08年房地产崩 盘的记录，并宣布推出了一个付费的文章频道，来记录自己对AI泡沫的思考，目前该频道已有超5万订 阅。 转自：贝壳财经 ...

Burry在这篇文章中，正式向当下的AI热潮宣战，而风暴的中心正是英伟达。 他直指英伟达即是当年的思科。 "这一次没有什么不同，无论多少人试图证明。再一次，有一个思科处于这一切的中心，它为所有人提供'镐和铲子'，并伴随着宏大的愿景。它的名字叫英伟 达。" 在经历了基金注销传闻与"做空AI金额被媒体夸大百倍"的闹剧后，电影《大空头》原型、知名投资者Michael Burry于当地时间11月24日兑现承诺，准时"回 归"。 这一次，他并未如传言般通过巨额期权做空市场，而是选择通过首篇专栏文章《泡沫的主要迹象：供给侧的暴食》（The Cardinal Sign of a Bubble: Supply- Side Gluttony）来表达"做空AI"的观点。 核心论战：英伟达就是当年的思科 针对近期市场认为"科技巨头盈利能力强，因此不存在泡沫"的主流观点，Burry在文中进行了针锋相对的反驳。 他列举了1999年互联网泡沫巅峰时期的数据指出，当年的繁荣同样是由高利润公司推动的，而非仅仅是那些甚至没有收入的小网站。 他在文中写道： "并不像人们以为的那样是由无利可图的网络公司驱动，1999年强劲的纳斯达克指数是由当时高 ...

Core Viewpoints - Recent fluctuations in the US stock market are primarily driven by liquidity issues, with the federal government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's indecision being the root causes [2][5][6] - The argument for an AI bubble is based on two premises: fundamental cracks and liquidity constraints, but the market is not yet at a bubble stage [2][11] - Discussions about an AI bubble should ideally begin around mid-2026 [2][19] Market Downturn - The recent downturn in the US stock market is not a result of an AI bubble but rather a liquidity crisis, characterized by a "double whammy" of falling stock and bond prices [4][10] - The liquidity crisis is attributed to the federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2023, due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill [5][6] - Following the government shutdown, the Treasury's general account balance increased significantly, leading to a decline in bond market value and contributing to the stock market's downturn [8] AI Bubble Discussion - The AI sector's capital expenditure has surpassed that of the internet bubble era, but the quality of revenue and profitability of current leading companies is significantly better [14][18] - The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is only slightly above 18%, compared to over 33% during the internet bubble, indicating that the current situation does not suggest an imminent bubble [18] - The current monetary environment is not tightening but is expected to remain accommodative, contrasting with the conditions leading to the internet bubble's collapse [18] Future Indicators - Key indicators to monitor for potential risks include the prices of safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies; a recovery in these prices would suggest improved liquidity [19] - If a new Federal Reserve chair adopts aggressive rate cuts, it could stimulate inflation and raise concerns about liquidity issues in the latter half of 2026 [19]

Core Viewpoint - Google's stock surged over 4% before market opening on November 25, potentially pushing its market capitalization to over $4 trillion, joining the ranks of Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft [3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - Google's market capitalization has exceeded $3.8 trillion, surpassing Microsoft's $3.52 trillion, placing it among the top three in U.S. market capitalization [3] - Over the past month, Google's stock has risen more than 20%, with a year-to-date increase of over 67% from around $190 per share at the beginning of the year [5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The release of new AI models, Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro, has generated excitement in the AI community, positioning Google to potentially overtake OpenAI in the AI race [6] - Google's TPU chips, designed for AI tasks, are being marketed to clients, including Meta, which is considering a multi-billion dollar investment to integrate these chips into its data centers [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Google's Gemini series has achieved over 650 million monthly active users, with AI features in search reaching over 2 billion monthly users, narrowing the gap with ChatGPT [6] - In contrast, other AI companies like Nvidia and Microsoft have seen stock declines, with Nvidia down 13% and Microsoft down 14% over the past month [7] Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Google's strategy of integrating its TPU chips into client data centers marks a significant shift, aiming to capture 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue share [5] - The company’s comprehensive approach, covering chips, cloud services, large models, and applications, allows it to control costs and create a unique business cycle [8] - Investors are increasingly favoring Google over other AI startups that are heavily investing and incurring losses, indicating a preference for stability [8]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund managers have issued warnings regarding the premium risk of their QDII funds, indicating that over 20 funds may be affected by secondary market trading price premiums, despite the majority showing strong performance this year [1][3]. Group 1: Premium Risk Warnings - On November 25, several fund management companies, including Huaxia, GF, and Huitianfu, announced premium risk warnings for their QDII funds, affecting more than 20 products [3]. - The funds involved track indices such as the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and MSCI US 50, with these indices showing significant gains of 18.38%, 18.07%, and 14% year-to-date, respectively [3]. - The warnings are not new; for instance, Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF has issued premium risk alerts up to 30 times since November [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Fund Management Actions - As of November 21, 92.16% of the 689 QDII funds reported positive returns this year, with some funds, like Huitianfu Hong Kong Advantage Mixed QDII, achieving returns exceeding 122% [6]. - In response to the premium risks, 165 QDII funds have suspended subscriptions or limited large subscriptions, with some funds imposing strict limits on subscription amounts [7][8]. - The tightening of QDII quotas has led to a supply-demand imbalance, contributing to the premium phenomenon as investors rush to buy into these funds [5][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The premium risk is exacerbated by a failure in the arbitrage mechanism due to the suspension of the primary market for subscriptions and redemptions, making it difficult to correct the premiums quickly [5]. - High-frequency trading and speculative activities have further amplified price volatility in the QDII funds, particularly those allowing T+0 trading [5]. - Analysts suggest that investors should wait for market adjustments before purchasing QDII funds to avoid chasing high prices, while also being mindful of the overall market conditions and potential risks [8].

市场表现：全球市场普跌。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -2.1% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -2.0% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -3.0% 。债市方面，日本 10Y 国债利率大幅 上升。大宗方面，玉米涨跌幅居前，天然气涨跌幅靠后。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币平。上周 AI 泡沫担忧博弈加剧，全球科技板块跌幅普 遍居前，国内材料 & 医药跌幅最大。 交投情绪：上周欧美 / 港股成交放量， A 股 / 韩股缩量。 从成交看，上周上证、韩国 Kospi200 成交下降，标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 、法国 CAC 、德 国 DAX 、日经 225 、恒指成交上升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上 周港股、欧股、日股、美股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周港股材料盈利预期上修，美股科技盈利预期上修。 横向对比来看，上周港股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，欧股、美股次之，日股表 现最末。其中： 1 ）港股盈利预期上修，恒生指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 2077 上 ...

"季节性利好始终是投资者们的朋友，但重要的是要记住，它并不是绝对的。"Solus Alternative Asset Management LP首席经济学家兼策略师Dan Greenhaus表示。 智通财经APP获悉，在几周前，在全球资金对热门AI概念科技股的持续热捧、稳健的企业盈利数据以及 一贯强劲的股票市场季节性走势的支撑下，华尔街预期美国股市在年末将再度上演强势上涨(即所谓 的"圣诞冲高行情")似乎几乎是板上钉钉的事，但是随着近日美联储降息预期飘忽不定以及围绕"AI泡 沫"的悲观论调仍在影响投资者情绪，华尔街的机构投资者们对于美股涨势的预判却不再那么确定了。 季节性顺风主导市场?正如上述图表所显示的那样，交易员们正在积极权衡12月强劲的股票市场历史表 现与AI风险。 CFRA Research汇编的数据显示，自1945年以来，标普500指数在12月份平均上涨1.5%，这一表现仅次 于11月份。但即便算上本周一的大举反弹，这一美国股市基准指数本月依然有望录得跌幅——这让整 个"季节性规律"的概念受到市场质疑，尤其是在交易员们仍然对英伟达、博通以及AMD等人工智能相 关热门芯片股票的估值心存忐忑之际。 （原 ...

一周以来，新模型Gemini 3 Pro和Nano Banana Pro的发布引发AI圈狂欢，谷歌也成功逆袭，风头压过OpenAI，市值屡创历史新高。就在11月25日凌晨，美股 收盘时谷歌大涨超6%，收于318.58美元/股，目前市值已超过3.8万亿美元，超过微软的3.52万亿美元，进入美股总市值前三。 近一个月以来谷歌美股的涨幅已超过20%。 11月25日晚，谷歌（GOOGL.US）美股盘前大涨超4%，若开盘保持该涨幅，谷歌总市值将首次突破4万亿美元。此前，总市值突破过4万亿美元的上市公司 中有英伟达、苹果和微软，但随后微软掉出该队伍。 近一个月以来谷歌美股的涨幅已超过20%。今年初，谷歌的股价还在190美元/股附近，至今涨幅超过67%。 Gemini 3系列模型或许是谷歌这两年AI战略的重要里程碑。自2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，谷歌一直被认为"起大早赶晚集"，在AI竞赛中处于追赶OpenAI的 状态，但新的模型可能会改写格局，谷歌正在夺得领先地位，尤其是OpenAI的GPT-5被指"噱头大于实际"的情况下，AI产业正需要一个新的旗手。 谷歌在发布新模型的同时公布了Gemini用户的数据：月活跃用户 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海11月25日电（葛佳明）"AI泡沫"论卷土重来、似有愈演愈烈之势，这也成为引发此前美 股、A股和港股三地市场AI相关成长风格、甚至整体风险资产大幅回调的原因之一。 多数分析师接受新华财经采访时表示，从市场角度看，是否形成"泡沫"主要看价格偏离价值的程度；从 产业本身角度，则要看投资是否已超过需求和自身承担能力。目前AI龙头公司已经开始有了可观规模 的营收，AI投资强度仍较为合理。 大空头再谈"AI泡沫" 电影"大空头"原型、知名投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）于当地时间11月24日通过首篇专栏文章 《泡沫的标志：供给侧的贪婪》，进一步阐述了其对美股市场存在"AI泡沫"，且英伟达是一切"泡沫"核 心的观点。 伯里指出，当下的AI热潮正重演20世纪90年代末"互联网泡沫"，一家与思科相似的公司再次成为"泡 沫"核心，其不仅拥有推动AI发展所需的工具和资源，还具备了相似的前景，如今它的名字是英伟达。 与25年前思科破纪录的市值类似，英伟达如今已成为全球市值最高的公司，截至11月24日收盘其市值约 为4.44万亿美元。 在此前第三季度财报后电话会议上，英伟达CFO科莱特·克 ...