文章来源：金投网 北京时间周五（12月5日）亚盘时段，国际白银震荡微升，截至发稿，国际白银价格暂报57.13美元/盎 司，上涨0.07%，目前来看，国际银价盘内短线偏向看涨走势。随着美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价 指数报告的即将公布，投资者们正屏息以待，这份美联储青睐的通胀指标将直接影响12月政策会议的决 策方向。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 【要闻速递】 周四美国国债价格下跌结束了连续三天的上涨，10年期国债收益率上涨5.2个基点至4.108%，30年期收 益率上涨4.1个基点至4.766%，两年期收益率上涨4.5个基点至3.531%。这一抛售潮部分归因于劳动力市 场韧性的显现，略微打击了降息预期，同时投资者在美联储会议前整固仓位。 美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数环比大降53.4%至7.1321万人，前值15.3074万人；美国上周初请失业金人 数录得19.1万人，为2022年9月24日当周以来新低，不及市场预期的22万人。 尽管续请人数居高不下表明市场仍疲软，但整体读数偏低导致收益率反弹。收益率曲线的变化不大，两 年/10年期差维持在57.7个基点附近，显示市场对经 ...

Group 1 - Copper stocks showed resilience in the market, with Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) rising by 3.82%, China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) increasing by 2.94%, and China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up by 2.8% [1][2] - The main driver for the increase in copper prices is the ongoing supply tightness, alongside rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar and provided strong support for base metals [1][2] - The market is shifting focus towards the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with increased probabilities of rate cuts contributing to a more positive market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and expectations of reduced smelting output are driving strong copper price trends [2] - There is an expectation of marginal increases in short-term supply, while downstream operating rates continue to provide support, suggesting that copper prices are likely to maintain a strong performance [2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal industry is benefiting from improved liquidity expectations and supportive supply-demand dynamics [1] - Copper prices have surged significantly due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a consensus on tight supply reinforcing a supercycle logic [1] - The aluminum processing operating rate has increased to 62.3% month-on-month, with both primary and recycled alloy sectors performing strongly due to automotive demand [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are experiencing price increases driven by optimistic liquidity expectations, with silver showing significant gains due to low inventory levels [1] - In the energy metals sector, lithium demand remains strong, although salt lake production is seasonally declining, while cobalt raw materials are tight, supporting prices [1] - Light rare earth prices are rising due to favorable policies and demand, while heavy rare earth prices are declining due to relaxed supply [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the mining and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics and effectively reflects the operational status of China's non-ferrous metal industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stability of the Singapore dollar against the US dollar as market participants await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week, with indications of a softening US labor market reinforcing expectations for a potential rate cut by the Fed [1]. Group 1 - The Singapore dollar remains stable against the US dollar, reported at 1.2955 [1]. - The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in three years [1]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank noted signs of a weakening US labor market, which strengthens market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

Group 1 - The current expected oil price adjustment is a decrease of 60 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.05-0.06 yuan per liter, with a potential for further decline [1] - International oil prices have shown a rebound, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rising by 1.02% to $59.70 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.97% to $63.35 per barrel [4] - Saudi Aramco has lowered its January Arab Light crude oil price for Asian customers to a premium of 60 cents over the regional benchmark, the lowest since January 2021, indicating oversupply and weak demand [4] Group 2 - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week were reported at 191,000, lower than the market expectation of 220,000, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index for September may influence oil price trends [4] - The next oil price adjustment is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations are rising, there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the supply - demand outlook for electrolytic copper in non - US regions is tightening, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,060, with an increase of 1,770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots. The open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots. The inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,434, a decrease of 14.5 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 50.44, a decrease of 37.94 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.362, an increase of 0.12 compared to the previous day. The total inventory was 435,831, an increase of 3,893 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled tape, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased, and that of recycled copper rod has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the LME's electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory have increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251205: Range-bound after Recovery [1] Market Data Summary Shanghai Nickel Futures - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 117,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and the open interest decreased by 577 lots. The inventory was 32,595 tons, a decrease of 2,501 tons [2]. - The price differences between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures also showed certain changes, such as the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton [2]. LME Nickel - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 14,830 US dollars/ton on December 4, 2025. The trading volume was 5,302 lots, a decrease of 3,162 lots. The inventory was 253,116 tons, an increase of 126 tons [2]. Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,742 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots, and the open interest decreased by 871 lots. The inventory was 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons [2]. Core Views Nickel - On December 4, the main nickel contract oscillated within a range. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased nickel ore arrivals at ports last week with inventory depletion at ports. Nickel - iron mills' losses deepened, with domestic and Indonesian production schedules decreasing in December. Electrolytic nickel production schedules increased in December, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed. The demand side saw a decline in ternary precursor production, a decrease in stainless - steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. With inventory increasing in SHFE, LME, and the social sector, and decreasing in the bonded area, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure. Considering the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, after the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Stainless Steel - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. Inventory in SHFE decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. In terms of supply, stainless - steel production decreased in December, and the 300 - series production schedule declined. The terminal demand was weak. The high - grade ferronickel price decreased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained stable. With loose fundamentals and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Investment Strategies Nickel - The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [2]. Stainless Steel - The trading strategy is to short on rallies, with a view score of 0 [2]

Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. has decreased to 6.19%, marking the second lowest value of the year, following 6.17% on October 30 [1] - This rate has declined for two consecutive weeks, down from 6.23% a week prior and 6.69% a year ago [1] - The decrease in mortgage rates is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to an overall downward trend since July [1] - In October, existing home sales in the U.S. increased by 1.2% month-over-month, reaching the highest level in eight months, attributed to the decline in mortgage rates [1] - The drop in mortgage rates is seen as positive for potential homebuyers, enhancing their purchasing power, although economic uncertainty and a weak job market may still affect buyer confidence [1] Group 2: Employment Market - In November, the U.S. private sector experienced a reduction of 32,000 jobs, indicating a stagnation in employment growth expected in the second half of 2025 [2] - This data reflects layoffs within private enterprises, raising concerns about the weakening of the U.S. job market [2]

| 贵金属日评20251205:全球债务膨胀预期支撑贵金属价格 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-03 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-28 | 收盘价 | 956. 70 | -3.28 | 953. 42 | 953. 92 | -0. 50 | | | | | | | | | | 成交重 | 300096.00 | 310489.00 | 189713.00 | 10, 393. 00 | 120, 776. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 202129.00 | 197638.00 | 197799.00 | -161.00 | -4. 491.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 90870.00 | 90873.00 | 90873.00 | -3.00 | -3.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 1.03 | 948. ...