如何涨薪增收促消费？学者建言：中央财政出资扩大民 生支出 3月23日—24日，中国发展高层论坛2025年年会举行，北京钓鱼台国宾馆在浓浓春意中，迎来了近千位中外贵宾。 这些来自政府机构、跨国企业、央企民企、学界的"大佬"级人物，围绕"全面释放发展动能，共促全球经济稳定增 长"的话题展开研讨，十余场研讨会几乎场场爆满、座无虚席。 谈及全球经济，当前贸易保护主义、单边主义、地缘政治的风险给全世界带来了诸多不确定性。这样的大背景 下，中国经济又该如何稳增长、激活发展新动能？对此，多位学者表示，当前包括提振消费在内的经济增量政策 还不足以刺激中国的总需求，中国需要采取大胆的行动推动经济发展，而且要注重惠民生，以人为本的经济发展 模式才可持续。 研讨会现场。 提振消费不是应急之策 提振消费作为我国经济今年的"头号任务"，被专家们频频提及。南都记者关注到，此次中国发展高层论坛2025年 年会还专门设置了一场"提振消费与扩大内需"的专题研讨会。 据了解，中国当前面临需求不足、尤其是消费不足的问题。与国际比较看，中国居民实际最终消费占GDP比重较 全球平均水平低约20个百分点。用购买力平价口径，中国与OECD国家（由38个国 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025, focusing on GDP growth, consumption, infrastructure investment, and the real estate market [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed 5%, supported by strong performance in consumption, infrastructure, and real estate investments, despite weak net exports [2][3]. 2. **Consumption Trends**: Consumption growth for January and February was 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.5%, but higher than the previous year's 3.5% and Q4's 3.8%. The "trade-in" policy implemented on January 20 is anticipated to boost consumption growth to around 4.5% [2][3]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Both broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure investment are expected to exceed last year's levels, with significant increases in water conservancy and municipal projects due to enhanced spending willingness from local governments [3]. 4. **Real Estate Market**: Although the real estate market shows signs of marginal weakness, it has improved compared to the previous year. A potential easing of regulations, such as lowering loan rates, could stabilize its impact on the macro economy [3]. 5. **Monetary Policy**: The current monetary policy is in a moderately tight balance aimed at preventing financial risks, with no significant adjustments expected in the short term. The central bank emphasizes that monetary policy should be viewed as a state rather than a single action [4][5]. 6. **Fiscal Policy**: An estimated 3 trillion yuan in new funds is expected this year, including special government bonds and increased deficit rates. There is a need to expand the range of subsidies to stimulate consumption [5]. 7. **Stock Market Dynamics**: The recent shift in stock market style is attributed to the continuous rise in risk-free interest rates, leading to a rotation from consumer sectors to high-dividend and stable financial sectors [6][10]. 8. **Impact of Overseas Markets**: Adjustments in overseas markets have influenced the risk appetite for Hong Kong and A-shares, with trading volumes indicating a need for stronger upward momentum in the short term [9][10]. 9. **Structural Rotation in Markets**: The market is experiencing structural rotation, with funds moving towards sectors that have not seen significant increases, such as high-dividend stocks, coal, and banking [10][11]. 10. **Future Market Drivers**: For the market to rise further, it requires support from other sectors, including real estate and consumer-related stocks, to create a broader upward trend [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Short-term Interest Rates**: The rise in short-term interest rates may be nearing its end, with the monetary policy currently in a phase of total easing observation [13]. - **Banking Sector Support**: The central bank's recent operations aim to lower costs for banks, indicating a continued focus on supporting the banking sector despite expectations of gradual easing [15]. - **Market Expectations**: The current yield curve is flat, with expectations of potential steepening, but the exact form of this change remains uncertain [19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, market dynamics, and policy implications for the upcoming period.

2025 年 03 月 25 日 锌：中期仍以逢高空思路为主 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong023952@gtjas.com 【新闻】 中国财政部：2025 年财政政策要更加积极，提高财政赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券；2025 年要支持 全方位扩大国内需求，着力提升科技创新能力；1-2 月全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 1.6%，支出同比增长 3.4%，交易印花税增长 58.9%。（华尔街见闻） 【趋势强度】 锌趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24200 | 1.81% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2927.5 | 0.29% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌 ...

以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ，作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里，追求自由与思想。 文/ 粤开证券研究院副院长、首席宏观研究员 罗志恒 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势，1- 2月 经济数据"开门红"，工业和服务业、消费和投资同比增速均高于去年全年 增速。一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右，为实现全年" 5%左右"的增速目标 奠定良好基础。 经济数据"开门红"的三大动能 今年以来中国经济总体延续去年926政治局会议以来的恢复态势，生产供给稳定增长、消费投资稳中有 升，为一季度经济开局奠定良好基础。1-2月经济数据"开门红"，一季度GDP同比或达5.5%左右。生产 方面，1-2月规模以上工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比分别增长5.9%和5.6%，较去年全年分别加快0.1 和0.4个百分点；需求方面，社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资完成额同比分别增长4%和4.1%，较去 年全年分别加快0.5和0.9个百分点。 值得注意的是，今年1-2月经济数据受到两大不利因素拖累，在这样的背景下，当前成绩更显不易。一 是工作日减少带来的不可比因素，受闰年和平年、元旦和春 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with an increased fiscal deficit rate and a significant rise in government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 2025 fiscal policy will focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies while introducing new measures to stimulate economic growth. Key areas of focus include increasing the fiscal deficit rate, optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing local government financial capacity [7][9]. Summary by Sections 2024 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Characteristics - In 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 21,970.212 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase from 2023, with tax revenue declining by 3.4% and non-tax revenue increasing by 25.4% [2]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.6% to 28,461.225 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 40,600 billion yuan, consistent with the budget [3]. Government Fund Budget - The national government fund budget revenue was 62,090.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2%, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.2% [4]. State-owned Capital Management Budget - The state-owned capital management budget revenue was 6,782.88 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 14.5%, while expenditure decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan [5]. Social Insurance Fund Budget - The social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.7 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with expenditures reaching 106,061.28 billion yuan, a 7% increase [6]. 2025 Fiscal Policy Directions - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4.0%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit amounting to 56,600 billion yuan [10]. - The issuance of government bonds will be expanded, including 13,000 billion yuan in long-term special bonds and 5,000 billion yuan for capital replenishment of state-owned banks [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more targeted and effective fiscal policy to support domestic demand, modern industry development, and social welfare improvements [7][9]. 2025 Budget Overview - The national general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 21,985 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.1%, while expenditure is expected to rise by 4.4% to 29,700.5 billion yuan [10]. - The government fund budget revenue is anticipated to be 62,499.09 billion yuan, with a significant increase in expenditure by 23.1% [11].

经过多年的结构调整与创新积累，中国经济正在蓄势待发。 考虑到加税对经济的拖累可能主要在二、三季度体现，结合国内需求运行趋势及库存周期、盈利周期的 位置，中信证券判断2025年经济将呈现"U"型增长，全年增速有望维持在5%左右。 2025年两会呈现出货币政策更加聚焦广义价格体系、财政政策保留合理空间的特点，旨在应对风高浪急 的外部形势以及内需偏弱的国内低通胀环境。 中信证券认为货币政策将通过总量及结构双重工具的支持，改善居民财富效应，带动居民消费需求温和 修复；财政政策适度扩张，一方面着眼于加强社会保障以提高居民边际消费倾向，另一方面着力于化解 债务与扩大投资，发挥有效投资对经济增长压舱石的作用。 人民财讯3月18日电，中信证券研报表示，经过三年经济结构转型的阵痛期，地产及其产业链在中国经 济的占比从2020年的18%下降到2024年10%—11%，而战略性新兴产业在经济的占比从2020年的11.7% 上升到2024年的14.1%，新旧动能转换已初具成效。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [34]. Core Insights - The economic fundamentals indicate a slowdown in export growth and a need for inflation to be boosted, alongside fragile recovery in real estate demand, highlighting persistent issues with domestic demand [10] - Despite potential fiscal support for a strong start to the first quarter, the policy tone remains cautious, suggesting a prudent approach from decision-makers regarding the strength of economic recovery [10] - Liquidity conditions are marginally easing post-month-end, with some recovery in the deviation of DR007 from policy rates, but government bond supply and seasonal MPA assessments may still disrupt the bond market [10] - The external environment remains uncertain, particularly regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the limited downward space for U.S. Treasury yields, compounded by uncertainties in U.S.-China relations [10] - Overall, the bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with limited room for further interest rate increases, and institutions with stable liabilities should consider a barbell strategy for allocation [10] Summary by Sections 1. Central Bank Open Market Operations - During the week of March 10-14, 2025, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 191.7 billion yuan, with reverse repos of 526.2 billion yuan and a total withdrawal of 777.9 billion yuan [15] - The reverse repo balance stood at 526.2 billion yuan, and the MLF balance was 40,940 billion yuan as of the end of the week [15] 2. Government Bond Issuance and Maturity - Government bond issuance decreased week-on-week, totaling 424.07 billion yuan, with maturities of 304.59 billion yuan, resulting in net financing of 245.85 billion yuan [16] - The expected issuance for the following week is 226.17 billion yuan, with maturities of 319.10 billion yuan, leading to net financing of 108.68 billion yuan [16] 3. Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Overview - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit increased, with issuance at 835.01 billion yuan and maturities at 771.75 billion yuan, resulting in net financing of 63.26 billion yuan [20] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 2.07%, up by 1.9 basis points from the previous week [22] 4. Changes in Funding Rates - The average rates for DR001 and DR007 increased slightly, with DR001 rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.78% and DR007 by 0.9 basis points to 1.81% [26] - The overall trend in bill rates was downward, with the average rate for 6-month government bonds at 1.36%, down 2 basis points from the previous week [29] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that institutions with stable liabilities should adopt a barbell strategy for allocation, while trading funds need to be cautious of liquidity disturbances and regulatory scrutiny as the quarter-end approaches [30] - Attention should be paid to potential reserve requirement ratio cuts, as renewed expectations for monetary easing could drive interest rates back into a downward trend if economic data confirms weak recovery [30]

Core Viewpoint - A more proactive fiscal policy may break the current weak expectation cycle, as the decline in M2 year-on-year is primarily due to weak growth in household demand deposits rather than insufficient corporate activity, indicating a shift in household asset allocation towards equity markets [2][9] Financial Data Summary - In February, new credit amounted to 10,100 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4,400 billion, mainly dragged down by corporate medium and long-term loans. Household loans decreased by 3,891 billion, a year-on-year reduction of 2,016 billion, with short-term loans down by 2,741 billion and medium and long-term loans down by 1,150 billion [4][22] - The total social financing (社融) in February was 22,375 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7,416 billion, supported by a significant increase in government bond financing while loans decreased. New RMB loans were 6,528 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3,245 billion [5][23] - The M2 year-on-year growth remained stable at 7.0%, with the new M2 year-on-year growth rate declining by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%. In terms of deposit structure, household deposits increased by 6,100 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25,900 billion, while corporate deposits decreased by 8,940 billion [5][28] Economic Outlook - The increase in social financing in February was supported by fiscal financing, but the delayed arrival of debt repayment funds and weak credit demand indicate that the recovery foundation is still not solid. A more proactive fiscal policy is expected to effectively break the current weak expectation cycle, with increased spending intensity and accelerated expenditure expected to stabilize social financing [3][21]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In February 2025, new RMB loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion yuan, resulting in a stock growth rate of 7.3%[1] - The social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion yuan, and a month-end growth rate of 8.2%[4] - Government bonds contributed significantly to the financing scale, with an increase of 1.6967 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0956 trillion yuan[5] Group 2: Loan Structure Analysis - Resident loans showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 201.6 billion yuan, while corporate loans decreased by 530 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 530 billion yuan, with short-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan[2] - Non-bank loans increased by 284.4 billion yuan, but this also reflected a year-on-year decrease of 120.1 billion yuan, continuing a downward trend[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy throughout 2025, with an anticipated reduction of 100 basis points in reserve requirement ratios and a 30 basis points cut in interest rates[10] - If US-China tensions escalate, monetary policy may shift towards further easing, while caution is advised regarding potential volatility in the bond market[10] - The M2 growth rate was 7% at the end of February, with a significant contribution from fiscal deposits, indicating a potential liquidity issue[7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for M1 growth, suggesting a potential upward trend in the coming quarters [11][35]. Core Insights - M1 growth showed a rebound trend in Q4 2024, but experienced a decline again in early 2025 due to the Spring Festival effect. The report explores the factors driving M1 growth changes and whether a new upward trend has begun [11][35]. - The report identifies five key factors influencing M1 growth: fiscal policy, monetary policy, entity activity, financial system, and external factors. It highlights that fiscal policy has become the primary driver of M1 growth, especially in 2024 [20][35]. - The report emphasizes that the contribution of entity demand to M1 growth has weakened significantly since 2018, while fiscal policy's contribution has increased, reaching 7.3 percentage points in 2024 [35][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in M1 - M1 growth rebounded starting October 2024, reaching 1.2% in December, but slowed to 0.4% in January 2025. The government bond issuance accelerated from August 2024, contributing to M1's recovery [11][12][35]. - The new M1 calculation includes personal demand deposits, which smooths out the impact of seasonal factors like the Spring Festival [11][13][35]. 2. Factors Driving M1 Growth: Insights from the Five-Factor Model - The report notes that the average annual contribution of entity demand to M1 growth has dropped to 2.2 percentage points in 2024, compared to an average of 10 percentage points from 2018 to 2021 [20][35]. - The financial system's contribution to M1 growth has been negative in recent years, reflecting the drag from interbank fund circulation [35][41]. 3. Is M1 Entering an Upward Cycle? - Historical data shows that M1 growth has typically rebounded significantly during previous cycles, with increases of over 10 percentage points lasting more than a year [41][45]. - The report suggests that while fiscal policy may drive M1 growth, the current recovery in entity demand remains weak, and the central bank's monetary policy focus is on stabilizing bank interest margins rather than large-scale liquidity injections [45][49].