Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long term, but short - term technical overbought risks should be guarded against [1][3][4] - Copper is a strategic resource in Sino - US competition and a substitute for precious metals, and is long - term bullish under the background of tight copper concentrate supply and booming green copper demand [1][9] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, short - term upside is limited, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [1][12] - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [1][16] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][20] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and long positions should take profits in a timely manner [1][24] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, the overseas gold market was strong, with spot gold breaking through $4,000 per ounce, and COMEX gold rising 4.45%. Domestic gold may challenge the 910 position [2][4] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak economic data, French political turmoil, Japanese leadership change, and central bank gold - buying behavior contribute to the rise [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held, and short - term positions can be deployed on dips [4] Silver - **Market Performance**: It follows the sharp fluctuations of gold and copper markets, with short - term high sentiment. Domestic silver may challenge the 11,300 position [1][4] - **Driving Factors**: Global policy stimulus, strong demand, and obvious supply - demand gap support long - term bullishness [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be tried, and long - term positions should be held [1] Copper - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper hit a new high of $10,802.5 per ton, and SHFE copper may open higher [6][8] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak employment data, Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US dollar, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions in Indonesian mines [8] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and new long positions can be entered after a pull - back. Long - term bullishness is maintained [9] Zinc - **Market Performance**: LME zinc hit a new high during the holiday but then declined. SHFE zinc may rise in the short term but with limited upside [10][11][12] - **Driving Factors**: Low LME zinc inventory, supply - demand imbalance with increasing supply and decreasing demand in the medium - to - long term [11][12] - **Strategy**: Short - term sell - hedging can be arranged at high levels, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [12] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME aluminum rose during the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to follow suit [13][14] - **Driving Factors**: Expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals, and support from terminal consumption [15] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be taken at low levels, paying attention to downstream processing enterprise operations [16] Nickel - **Market Performance**: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, and SHFE nickel may continue to rebound [17][18] - **Driving Factors**: Overseas political situation has limited impact on nickel supply, and there is a supply - demand divergence within the domestic nickel industry chain [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now, paying attention to downstream consumption improvement [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with pre - holiday fluctuations converging [22] - **Driving Factors**: Increasing production, stable downstream demand, and expected inventory reduction [23] - **Strategy**: Take profits on long positions in the range of 72,800 - 74,500 [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term weak oscillation, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday decline [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents a. Price Movement and View Classification - For price movement calculation, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily daytime closing price is the end price to calculate the rise - fall range [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% is strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4]. b. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Core logic: During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, and other commodities were generally under pressure. Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market. Although eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, Israel's combat state remains unchanged. The US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropped by about 1% during the holiday. With geopolitical premium support weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil 2511 contract is expected to show a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5].

后续应聚焦在美国政府停摆解决情况。如果美国政府停摆问题能够得到妥善解决，市场的避险情绪可能 会有所缓解，这可能会对金价产生一定的短线压力。但如果停摆持续时间延长，或者后续再次出现类似 情况，避险情绪将继续支撑金价上涨。另外，俄乌冲突、中东、南美局势等地缘政治热点地区的变化也 将持续影响黄金价格。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 光大： 国庆期间，纽约期金首次触及4000美元/盎司整数关口，现货同步创历史新高至3980美元/盎司美元附 近，金银比最低跌至81附近。外盘黄金异常强势，主要基于美国政府停摆引发的避险需求持续升温。美 国政府停摆影响是多方面的。一是重要经济数据发布中断。非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将无 法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预 期，美联储10月降息概率超90%。二是，美元信用削弱。政府停摆意味着美 ...

各位朋友早，我是帮主郑重，刚盯着盘面就瞅见个有意思的动静——国际金价早盘突然往下跳，COMEX黄金期货跌超0.7%，这一下可不是平白无故的，背 后藏着条刚出来的关键消息。 做了20年财经记者，我太懂黄金的"性子"了，它就像个"避险晴雨表"，地缘上一紧张就往上冲，一旦局势松口气，它就容易往下走。今儿这波跳水，正好跟 哈马斯同意加沙停火的消息对上了——埃及那边说，以色列和哈马斯9号就要签停火协议，这消息一出来，市场里揣着的"避险心"就松了大半，黄金自然跟 着往下调。 可能有人问，这跳水要不要慌？我这做中长线的得说句实在的：别盯着早盘这一下波动就乱了阵脚。短期跳水是"避险情绪退潮"的反应，但黄金的长期走 势，从来不是单靠一条停火消息定的——后面协议能不能稳落地、地缘会不会再出变数，还有全球货币政策的节奏，这些才是该盯着的核心。 我是帮主郑重，行情里的波动看着热闹，其实都有门道。今儿这波黄金跳水，更像给咱们提个醒：看资产别只盯盘面，得往消息背后的逻辑挖。后面金价怎 么走，咱们接着慢慢瞧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Domestic News - The Ministry of Transport forecasts that from October 1 to 8, 2025, the total inter-regional population flow is expected to reach 2.432 billion, averaging 304 million per day, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% compared to the 2024 National Day holiday [1] - On October 8, the national railway is expected to experience a peak in return passenger flow, with an estimated 21.75 million passengers sent and 2,189 additional passenger trains planned [1] - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 3,000 trips this year, achieving this milestone 39 days earlier than last year, with the latest train carrying automotive parts and daily necessities departing from Inner Mongolia [1] - As of October 8, the total box office for the 2025 National Day film season has exceeded 1.8 billion yuan, with "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace," "731," and "Assassination Novelist 2" ranking in the top three [1] International News - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate by 50 basis points from 3.0% to 2.5% to address economic weakness [3] - Germany's industrial output fell by 4.3% month-on-month in August, marking the largest decline since March 2022, with the automotive sector's production decreasing by 18.5% [3] - The spot price of gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $4,039.18, with a 1.38% increase [3] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $4,004.4 per ounce, setting a new closing record, driven by increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and political changes in France and Japan [3] Company News - Tesla has launched new versions of its best-selling models, the Model 3 and Model Y, priced below $40,000 to counter the impact of the cancellation of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies, with starting prices of $36,990 and $39,990 respectively, representing a decrease of approximately 13% and 11% from higher-end versions [4] - Following the release of the new models, Tesla's stock price dropped over 4%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $65 billion [4] - Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported a 1.4% year-on-year decrease in real wage income for August after adjusting for rising prices and rents [4] - The Tokyo Shoko Research Institute reported that the number of bankrupt companies in Japan reached 5,172 in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level since the 2013 fiscal year [4]

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historic high on October 8 [1] - As of the close on October 7, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4004.4 per ounce, marking a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into Western market ETFs and anticipated continued purchases by central banks [1] Group 1 - The U.S. federal government "shutdown" has heightened risk aversion among investors, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - Political instability in countries like France and Japan has increased investor concerns, further driving up gold prices [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1165 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook's at 1162 yuan per gram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strong buying from various funds has led to a rapid increase in gold prices, with spot gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time on October 8, 2023, marking a year-to-date increase of over 53% [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 8, spot gold reached a peak of $4049.6 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures hit $4071.5 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 47% [1][5]. - The price of gold has surged by $1000 in just over six months, from $3000 per ounce in March to over $4000 in October [5][10]. - The gold price has shown significant volatility, with notable increases in September, where it broke through several key levels, including $3500, $3600, $3700, and $3800 [9][10]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to strong buying from three main groups: increasing Western ETF positions, potential acceleration of purchases by central banks, and rising speculative positions [2][3]. - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases [2]. - Domestic gold ETFs in China have also seen significant inflows, with notable amounts recorded in various funds, indicating strong local demand [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's upward momentum, citing central bank purchases as a directional support, even if the absolute quantity of purchases has slowed [3]. - Bridgewater Associates' founder, Ray Dalio, suggests that investors should hold a larger percentage of their portfolios in gold, viewing it as a safer asset compared to the dollar [3]. - Noan Fund anticipates a continued long-term upward trend for gold prices, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and increased central bank purchases [3].

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historic high on October 8 [1] - As of the close on October 7, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4004.4 per ounce, marking a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into ETFs and continued central bank purchases [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. federal government "shutdown" has heightened risk aversion among investors, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - Political instability in countries like France and Japan has further fueled investor concerns, leading to an increase in gold prices [3] Domestic Impact - The recent surge in international gold prices has led to a corresponding increase in domestic gold jewelry prices [3] - As of now, the price of pure gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang has reached 1165 RMB per gram, while Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry is priced at 1162 RMB per gram [3]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.67%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% [2] - Popular tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla dropping over 4% and Google down over 1%, while AMD and Intel saw gains of over 3% and 1% respectively [2] - The cryptocurrency sector and semiconductor equipment and materials faced significant declines, with Strategy down over 8% and ASML down nearly 4% [2] - Coal and consumer goods sectors saw gains, with Estee Lauder up over 4% and Procter & Gamble up over 1% [2] Chinese Market Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.24%, with major Chinese concept stocks experiencing declines, including Century Internet down over 6% and Baidu down over 4% [3] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.79% to $4007.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.64% to $47.655 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.06% to $61.73 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.03% to $65.45 per barrel [5] French Bond Market - The French bond market faced severe sell-offs amid political turmoil, with the yield on 10-year French bonds exceeding 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 European debt crisis [6] - The spread between French and German bond yields widened to over 89 basis points, the highest level this year [6] Global Market Sentiment - The overseas market showed strong performance during the holiday period, with notable gains in the technology and semiconductor sectors, driven by positive sentiment towards AI demand [10] - Gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, reflecting strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10][11] - The U.S. labor market data showed a decrease in private sector employment, leading to increased bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Future Market Predictions - The domestic commodity market is expected to see strong performance post-holiday, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous metals, driven by external market trends and domestic demand recovery [12][15] - The outlook for black metals and construction materials is positive, supported by seasonal demand and low valuations [15] - Agricultural products are expected to show mixed performance, with corn potentially continuing its upward trend while other commodities may face downward pressure due to international oil prices [15]