- The report tracks multiple quantitative factors across different markets, including equity market factors, commodity market factors, options market factors, and convertible bond market factors[7] Quantitative Factors and Construction Equity Market Factors - **Factor Name**: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the dominance of large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth styles in the market[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - Large-cap vs. small-cap style: Evaluates the relative performance of large-cap stocks compared to small-cap stocks - Value vs. growth style: Assesses the relative performance of value-oriented stocks compared to growth-oriented stocks - Volatility metrics: Tracks the fluctuation in style dominance over time[11][13] - **Evaluation**: The market style is currently skewed towards large-cap and value stocks, with reduced volatility in style dominance[13] - **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion and rotation within industry indices and stock concentration in trading[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - Industry index excess return dispersion: Tracks the spread of returns across different industry indices - Industry rotation speed: Measures the rate at which industries gain or lose prominence - Stock concentration: Evaluates the trading concentration of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries[11][13] - **Evaluation**: Industry return dispersion is at a one-year low, while industry rotation speed has increased. Stock concentration remains stable at low levels[13] - **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: Tracks overall market volatility and turnover rates[12][13] - **Construction Process**: - Index volatility: Measures the fluctuation in market indices - Index turnover rate: Tracks the frequency of stock trading within indices[12][13] - **Evaluation**: Market volatility is at a one-year low, while turnover rates have slightly increased[13] Commodity Market Factors - **Factor Name**: Commodity Futures Factors - **Construction Idea**: Tracks trends, volatility, and liquidity across commodity sectors[28][31] - **Construction Process**: - Trend strength: Measures the directional movement in sectors like black metals, precious metals, and agricultural products - Volatility: Tracks the fluctuation in commodity prices - Liquidity: Assesses the ease of trading in different commodity sectors - Basis momentum: Evaluates the change in the basis (difference between spot and futures prices) for sectors like precious metals and non-ferrous metals[28][31] - **Evaluation**: Precious metals and non-ferrous metals show declining basis momentum, while agricultural products exhibit stronger trends. Liquidity in the energy sector is at a one-year high[31] Options Market Factors - **Factor Name**: Implied Volatility and Skewness - **Construction Idea**: Tracks implied volatility levels and skewness in options markets[36] - **Construction Process**: - Implied volatility: Measures the market's expectation of future volatility for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 1000 - Skewness: Evaluates the asymmetry in the distribution of returns, particularly for put options[36] - **Evaluation**: CSI 1000 implied volatility remains at historically low levels, and skewness for put options has increased, indicating reduced concerns over small-cap risks[36] Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Valuation Factors - **Construction Idea**: Tracks valuation metrics and trading activity in the convertible bond market[38] - **Construction Process**: - Premium rate: Measures the difference between the bond price and its conversion value - Trading activity: Tracks the turnover and liquidity in the convertible bond market - Credit spread: Evaluates the difference in yields between convertible bonds and risk-free bonds[38] - **Evaluation**: Premium rates have risen to near-May peaks, while low-premium bonds have decreased in proportion. Credit spreads have slightly narrowed[38] Backtesting Results Equity Market Factors - **Market Style Factors**: - Large-cap dominance observed - Value style outperformed growth style - Style volatility reduced to a one-year low[13] - **Market Structure Factors**: - Industry return dispersion at a one-year low - Increased industry rotation speed - Stable stock concentration at low levels[13] - **Market Activity Factors**: - Volatility at a one-year low - Slight increase in turnover rates[13] Commodity Market Factors - **Commodity Futures Factors**: - Decline in trend strength for black and precious metals - Increase in agricultural product trends - Energy sector liquidity at a one-year high - Decline in basis momentum for precious and non-ferrous metals[31] Options Market Factors - **Implied Volatility and Skewness**: - CSI 1000 implied volatility at historical lows - Increased skewness for put options, indicating reduced small-cap risk concerns[36] Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Convertible Bond Valuation Factors**: - Premium rates near May peaks - Decrease in low-premium bonds - Slight narrowing of credit spreads[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on experience and learning-related services consumption names, recommending eight quality consumer services with an average forward P/E of 17x and 19% year-on-year sales growth [31]. Core Insights - Despite overall lackluster consumption trends in China post-reopening, selected "new consumption" stocks have significantly outperformed the MXCN index, with an average weighted index for Lunar New Year consumption rising by 21% compared to 10% for MXCN through June 12 [5][6]. - The ACGN sector has shown remarkable performance, with stocks like Pop Mart and Bloks rising by 155% and 94% respectively, while other sectors like Hainan travel/shopping and e-bikes lagged behind [5][6]. - The report highlights a structural shift in consumer behavior towards services over goods, with services consumption categories such as Transport & Communications and Education, Culture & Recreational Services growing at 15% and 18% year-on-year in 2023, compared to overall consumption growth of 9% [5][6]. - The report identifies nine experience and learning-related consumption names that are expected to benefit from favorable seasonal spending trends during the summer [5][31]. Summary by Sections New Consumption Trends - Two key trends identified are affordable treats, including ACGN goods and government-subsidized trade-ins, and experience-related consumption such as movies and travel [6][31]. - The report notes that leading affordable treats have outperformed year-to-date, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards smaller pleasures rather than big-ticket items [5][6]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Valuation levels for top new consumption names are now comparable to established global brands, with significant upside potential for future growth [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that the ability to surprise on future growth is crucial for maintaining valuations in the new consumption space [5][6]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on experience and learning-related services, which are expected to benefit from seasonal trends and a structural shift towards services consumption in China [31]. - Specific companies highlighted include Tencent, NetEase, Trip.com, and Kuaishou, which are positioned well for growth in the digital entertainment and travel sectors [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of new consumption trends in the market, highlighting investment opportunities in sectors such as electric two-wheelers, pet economy, and personal care products, driven by changing consumer preferences and product innovation [2][4]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of New Consumption - New consumption is defined as investment opportunities driven by product or channel innovation, moving away from traditional reliance on cyclical factors like real estate and liquor sales [5]. - The focus of new consumption is on personalized consumer needs, such as emotional and self-satisfying consumption, which have gained traction among younger demographics [5][10]. - The resurgence of new consumption is attributed to a shift in market perception, where previously overlooked sectors are now receiving attention due to their potential for growth [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The current consumption market is characterized by a recovery from previous underperformance, with funds reallocating towards consumer stocks that are product-driven [7][8]. - Investment strategies have shifted from top-down cyclical analysis to a more granular bottom-up approach, focusing on individual product performance and innovation [9][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of product iteration and consumer engagement as key factors for maintaining competitive advantage in the new consumption landscape [11][15]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Opportunities - Key emerging trends include the rise of niche markets such as health supplements, beauty products, and innovative consumer goods, which are expected to continue growing [15][18]. - The article notes that traditional sectors like food and beverage still hold potential, particularly through structural changes and new product introductions [16]. - The investment landscape is evolving, with a focus on identifying high-growth single products that can deliver substantial returns, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards quality and innovation [18][19].

在今年科技、创新药等行情的带动下，南向资金持续加仓港股市场。 据Wind数据，今年以来，南向资金累计净流入港股市场金额超7100亿港元，远超往年同期，同时接近2024年历史最高纪录的88.83%。与此同时，南向资金在港 股市场的成交占比也在不断提升。 受访人士认为，内地资金持续关注并不断买入，表明内地投资者看到了港股市场潜在收益机会。部分港股股票估值较低、股息率较高，投资价值显著。同时，港股 市场的稀缺资产包括互联网、新消费、创新药等板块走强，也吸引了内地资金关注。 净流入超7100亿港元 今年年初以来，在DeepSeek引领中国资产重估叙事的大背景下，港股市场大幅走高。行情数据显示，截至6月25日，恒生指数年度涨幅达22.01%，恒生科技指数 年度涨幅为19.94%，市场表现在全球主要股指中排名靠前。 在此背景下，今年港股市场牛股频出，不少投资者直呼："港股或已进入牛市阶段"。Wind数据显示，在恒生指数成份股中，周大福年度涨幅超90%，翰森制药、 石药集团、小米集团等年度涨幅超60%，网易、京东健康、比亚迪股份、香港交易所等多股年度涨幅在40%以上。 内地资金定价权不断提升 南向资金的持续流入，不仅为港股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huangshi Group has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hubei Xiangyuan Food Co., Ltd., marking a significant step in expanding its new consumption strategy [1] - Huangshi Group aims to leverage its core advantages in the water buffalo milk supply chain and Xiangyuan Food's market strength to explore new opportunities in the beverage and tea drink sectors [1] - The ready-to-drink tea market has shown substantial growth, with the market size increasing from 70.2 billion yuan in 2018 to 211.5 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.7% [1] Group 2 - Huangshi Group is enhancing its tea beverage channel development, collaborating with numerous leading brands such as Mixue Ice Cream and Tea, and Bawang Tea [2] - The company has successfully introduced high-yield water buffalo embryos from Pakistan, significantly increasing milk production per buffalo and addressing long-standing supply shortages in the industry [2] - Huangshi Group is actively launching new products like "Water Buffalo Milk Tea" and "Water Buffalo Milk Ice Cream" to capture the young consumer market while expanding its distribution channels through partnerships with major e-commerce platforms and retail chains [2]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally driven by a significant change in consumer concepts shaped by the economic and social context of different generations, particularly from the 70s to the 00s [4][5] - The current consumer market is characterized by a shift from "survival-type" products to "quality + emotional-type" products, with a focus on emotional value and quality-price ratio [4][10] - Investment logic in new consumption should focus on sustainable growth capabilities rather than short-term speculative opportunities, emphasizing product innovation and strong brand recognition [4] Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Demographic Background of Consumption Changes - The per capita GDP in China has grown from over 10,000 RMB in 1995 to 84,000 RMB in 2023, establishing a buyer's market [4][15] - Consumer spending is increasingly constrained by rigid expenditures on housing, healthcare, and education, alongside wealth effects [4][19] - The educational attainment of the 95/00 generation has significantly increased, with a CAGR of 10.5% in the number of undergraduate graduates from 1998 to 2023 [4][23] - Urbanization rates have remained high, influencing consumption patterns and driving the reconstruction of consumption scenarios [4][24] 2. Product Evolution - The transition in consumer products reflects a shift towards quality and emotional engagement, with head brands focusing on domestic alternatives and functional trends [4][10] - The market has seen a rise in low-cost, emotionally valuable products, such as beauty care, jewelry, and IP toys, which are now key segments [4][10] 3. Marketing Evolution - Marketing strategies have evolved from traditional brand advertising to performance-driven advertising, with a focus on maximizing advertising efficiency [4][10] - The rise of digital platforms has transformed marketing channels, emphasizing the importance of consumer engagement and conversion rates [4][10] 4. Channel Evolution - The shift towards online channels has significantly increased penetration rates across various categories, with a focus on consumer value rather than supplier value [4][10] - The integration of public and private domains has become crucial for navigating the challenges posed by traditional retail models [4][10]

导语 2025年以来，老铺黄金以独特的中国宫廷古法制金工艺加上高颜值设计，一度出现全民 抢购的盛况；3月3日，蜜雪冰城正式在港股上市，其融资认购倍数和认购金额刷新了港 股的历史记录，成为港股新一代的冻资王；而随着潮流玩具领域的标志性事件——薄荷 色拉布布（Labubu）以108万元天价成交，新消费行业可谓赚足了眼球。对应到资本市 场，泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等头部标的轮番上涨，成为市场备受瞩目的资产。 与此同时，随着国内药企研发能力的增强，国产创新药获得国际顶尖医药公司认可，创 新药赛道也迎来爆发期，A 股与港股市场均展现出强劲的超额收益特征。截至6月20日 数据显示，中证创新药产业指数年内累计涨幅达10.97%，而中证香港创新药指数更是 上涨50.9%，成为资本市场焦点。 然而进入上周（6月16日-6月20日），两大热门板块同步出现阶段性调整：新消费领域 中，泡泡玛特周内累计跌幅12.11%，老铺黄金、蜜雪集团分别下挫13.34%、6.46%； 创新药板块亦受短期情绪影响，中证创新药产业指数和中证香港创新药指数单周分别回 调5.42%和8.53%，市场呈现获利回吐与结构分化特征。 此次震荡回调对于投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy conference held by Ping An Fund highlighted the transformative changes in the consumer market, presenting diverse investment opportunities in the new consumption sector by 2025 [1] Group 1: Consumer Trend Outlook - Three key areas of focus for medium to long-term consumer trends are identified: spiritual consumption, cost-effective consumption, and the international expansion of consumer brands [2] - Spiritual consumption is a significant trend, with the collectible toy market exemplifying this shift as consumer demand moves from material to spiritual needs [2] - Cost-effective consumption is driven by a slowing economy, leading consumers to be more budget-conscious, with new retail formats like discount snack stores emerging to meet this demand [2] - The international expansion of consumer brands is becoming crucial as Chinese companies seek to leverage their domestic success in global markets [2] Group 2: New Consumption Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities in the new consumption sector include collectible toys, snack foods, domestic cosmetics, personal care products, and gold jewelry [3][4][5] - The collectible toy market is experiencing robust growth, with a global market size of 773.1 billion yuan in 2023, and China holding only a 14% share, indicating significant room for growth [3] - The snack food retail market is projected to reach 37,380 billion yuan by 2024 and 49,477 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the rise of discount snack stores that enhance consumer experience and efficiency [4] - The domestic cosmetics market is expected to reach 537.2 billion yuan by 2024, with local brands gaining traction in international markets through improved quality and branding [4] - The gold jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, with low-weight products becoming popular among consumers, and traditional gold craftsmanship adding cultural value to products [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the new consumption market in China, highlighting how brands from Henan province, once considered "local" or "rural," are now emerging as significant players, overtaking previously dominant brands from Hunan province [3][5][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new consumption market is witnessing a shift in leadership, with Henan brands like Mxue Ice City and Banu Hotpot gaining prominence [5][16]. - Mxue Ice City has expanded to 46,479 stores globally by the end of 2024, becoming the largest tea drink brand in the world [15][16]. - Banu Hotpot's revenue reached 2.307 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 123 million yuan, ranking third in the Chinese hotpot market [17]. Group 2: Historical Context - In 2013, Hunan brands like Wenheyou and Chayan Yuese began to dominate the new consumption market, while Henan brands were still developing [6][9]. - Over the years, Hunan brands faced challenges, with Wenheyou and others experiencing store closures and financial difficulties [11][12][15]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Henan brands have focused on product quality and cost-effectiveness rather than aggressive marketing and external financing [20][24][40]. - Mxue Ice City and Banu Hotpot emphasize strong supply chain management and product integrity, which have contributed to their success [40][41]. - The article notes that the shift in consumer preferences towards value and quality has favored Henan brands over Hunan brands, which relied heavily on marketing [35][38]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The article highlights a return to rational consumption, where consumers prioritize product quality and value over marketing gimmicks [38][39]. - The changing consumer landscape has led to a decline in the fortunes of Hunan brands, which were previously successful due to their marketing strategies [39][40]. Group 5: Future Challenges - As Henan brands gain visibility, they face scrutiny and challenges related to maintaining product integrity and managing public perception [43][44]. - The ability to balance growth with a commitment to quality will be crucial for the sustained success of these emerging brands [44].