Core Viewpoint - Gold remains a highly sought-after asset in the current macroeconomic environment, prompting discussions on its continued investment viability and optimal long-term allocation strategies [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of July 31, the Gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.5%, with a trading volume of 10.98 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.94% [2] - International spot gold traded around $3,290 per ounce, with a recent price of $3,294.34 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2] - Gold has shown an average annual increase of over 10% since 2022, with a notable rise of over 25% in 2024, outperforming traditional stock and bond assets [4] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The traditional pricing framework for gold, which relied heavily on the actual interest rates in the U.S., has shifted since the second half of 2022 due to a significant increase in central bank gold purchases, rising from an average of 450 tons per year (2010-2020) to 1,100 tons (2022-2024), a 140% increase [5] - This shift has altered the relationship between gold prices and U.S. real interest rates, with gold price elasticity during interest rate declines now exceeding that during increases by over tenfold [5] Group 3: Supportive Factors for Gold - High policy uncertainty, driven by significant fiscal deficits and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, is expected to support gold prices [6] - The rise of populism globally has historically correlated with increases in gold prices, reflecting market concerns over future policy uncertainties [6] - The current valuation bubble in financial assets, particularly in U.S. equities, presents a potential adjustment risk, with gold serving as a hedge during market corrections [7] Group 4: Investment Value of Gold - Gold's unique attributes make it a favored asset for portfolio diversification, with a long-term correlation to other assets remaining below 10% [8] - Historical data indicates that gold has only experienced losses in 4 out of the past 21 years, with an annualized return of 9.5% [8] - The recent market conditions have returned to a healthier state, with a significant reduction in COMEX futures positions, indicating an ongoing opportunity for medium to long-term allocation in gold [8]

我是帮主郑重，20年财经老枪，今儿三句话拆透特朗普的"关税组合拳"有多狠！ 特朗普这回的贸易战"组合拳"打得够刁钻——一边对全球铜产品抡起50%关税大棒，一边逼韩国签下"不平等条约"。先说韩国这头：15%的汽车关税看似 比7月初放风的25%"温和"，但韩国付出的代价是实打实的3500亿美元"买路钱"！这笔钱名义上是投资美国控制的基建、半导体项目，实则让韩国企业沦 为美方"提款机"，连李在明政府都坦言"汽车关税15%令人遗憾"。更扎心的是，韩国还得吞下1000亿美元美国液化天然气订单，硬塞给自家能源市场。 这协议藏着三重玄机： 全球供应链暗涌已起！ 特朗普同天加码铜产品50%关税（涵盖铜管、线缆、电子元件），简直是给全球制造业"上枷锁"。韩国LG电缆、三星电机这些核 心部件商成本瞬间飙升，更可怕的是连锁反应——铜价暴涨可能让新能源车、光伏的"平价梦"碎一地。 帮主锐评：中长线投资者盯紧三件事！ • 避险资产窗口期：黄金上周玩"过山车"，但美国实际利率见顶+地缘风险未消，急跌就是中长线捡筹码机会； • "关税免疫"型赛道：像英维克这种机构、北向、游资三路合力的硬逻辑股（昨天净流入9.27亿），才是贸易乱局中的诺亚 ...

新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 30日下跌55.1美元，收于每盎司3327.9美元，跌幅为1.63%。 美国经济表现强劲，且美联储在货币政策上态度依然偏鹰，提振美元当日大涨近1%，进而令贵金属遭 遇全面抛售。盘中金价一度触及三周低点。 进一步，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后发布会上的表态也偏鹰，则给金价施加了更大的下行压力。鲍威尔 称，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市场已达到 或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的经济变化 时能及时应对。尤其在货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，尚未就9月会议作出任何决定。 鉴于美联储的政策决定并无意外，市场分析人士预计美联储今年的货币政策立场将比市场目前预期的略 显强硬。在鲍威尔讲话后，金价进一步扩大跌幅。 受金价回落和美铜期价暴跌的影响，当天9月交割的白银期货价格下跌121美分，收于每盎司37.175美 元，跌幅为3.15%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 具体来看，美国商务部30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第二季度美国国内生产总值（G ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 30, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 773.78 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.42% and a trading volume of 206,379 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 770.20 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 3.58 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed by 10.8% in June to 86 billion USD, with imports decreasing by 4.2% to 264.2 billion USD, marking the lowest level of consumer goods imports since September 2020 [1] - Exports in the same month saw a slight decline of 0.6% [1] Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Zhengxin Futures, gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to multiple factors including trade policy uncertainties and economic policy fluctuations, with a reasonable valuation projected at around 2,990 USD per ounce over the next three years [2] - The pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts poses risks to the Fed's independence, while the upcoming trade agreements and the third round of U.S.-China trade talks may influence market sentiment [2] - The long-term uncertainty in U.S. economic policy remains high, and the demand for precious metals as a strategic asset is expected to rise, providing support for gold prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility in gold prices driven by multiple factors, including trade negotiations, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4] - On July 29, gold prices rebounded, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce after a drop to $3302, indicating a rapid shift in market sentiment [1][2] - The recent agreement between the US and EU to impose a 15% tariff on EU goods has provided some certainty to global markets, while the extension of the tariff truce between the US and China has also influenced gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a significant factor affecting gold price fluctuations, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged during the upcoming meeting [4][6] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with a decrease in job openings and a rise in consumer confidence, contributing to the ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [4][6] - The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by President Trump's pressure on Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, which has heightened geopolitical risks and supported gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6] Group 3 - Oil prices have also been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil exports driving prices higher [6][7] - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU has intensified the pressure on the global energy market, with significant implications for oil supply and pricing [7] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is expected to address production strategies, which could further impact oil price volatility [7]

| 0: 7.396 | 除权 窗 区 信息 删自选 ◎ | | 黄金ETF基金 159937 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8.010 | 8.134 | | 7. 363 +0.012 +0.163% | | | | 7.860 | 型化 | +43.76% | 30551 | | | | 5 | 7.368 | 2488 | | | | দি | 7.367 | 737 | | | 7.582 | 3 | 7.366 | 5082 | | | | 2 | 7.365 | 7197 | | | 7.308 | 1 | 7.364 | 4125 | | | | 1 | 7.363 | 7982 | | | 7.030 | 2 | 7.362 | 24434 | | | | 3 | 7.361 | 10376 | | | 6.756 | 習 4 | 7.360 | 5362 | | | | 5 | 7.359 | 2026 | | | 6.479 | 最新 | 7.363 开盘 | 7.377 | | | | 涨幅 | +0.16% 最高 | 7.378 | | ...

周一（7月28日），现货黄金美盘一度跳水至3300美元/盎司附近，连跌四日，创近三周新低。金价的震 荡下行不仅受到美欧达成贸易协议的直接影响，也与美元指数的强劲反弹、全球风险偏好的回暖以及市 场对美联储利率政策的期待密切相关。 与此同时，中美贸易谈判的进展，以及地缘局势的持续紧张，仍为黄金市场的未来走势增添了更多不确 定性。而本周（7月28日-8月1日）即将登场的"超级数据周"，更被视为黄金投资的关键分水岭。 一、美欧协议：避险情绪退潮，黄金短期承压 根据最新达成的框架协议，美将对欧商品统一征收15%关税，而欧承诺五年内增加对美投资6000亿美 元，并采购7500亿美元能源及装备。这一消息直接推动标普500指数和纳斯达克指数刷新历史高位，风 险资产吸引力显著提升，避险资金随之撤离黄金市场。 不过，美元强势背后暗藏变数。尽管短期受贸易协议预期提振，但美元指数上周仍录得近一个月最大单 周跌幅。天誉国际团队报告指出，美联储在货币政策上的谨慎态度，叠加特持续施压要求降息，可能限 制美元进一步上行空间。若美联储独立性受损引发美元走软，将为黄金提供重要支撑，黄金投资者需密 切关注这一变量。发美元走软，将为黄金提供重要支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been declining significantly, with gold jewelry prices in China dropping below 1000 yuan per gram [2][5]. Price Trends - From July 23 to July 28, COMEX gold futures prices fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of nearly 4% [2]. - On June 28, the London gold spot price closed at 3314.18 USD per ounce, down over 110 USD per ounce from the high on July 22 [5]. - Major domestic gold jewelry brands have seen their prices drop below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific examples including: - Zhou Shengsheng: 994 yuan per gram, down 35 yuan from the high of 1029 yuan on July 23 [5]. - Lao Miao: 995 yuan per gram, down 28 yuan over six days [5]. - Chow Tai Fook: 998 yuan per gram, down 25 yuan over six days [5]. Market Influences - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets, influenced by easing global trade tensions and economic talks between the US and China [8]. - On July 23, President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, reducing auto tariffs, which is seen as a template for future trade policies [8]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is also impacting gold prices, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, which may lead to mixed market reactions [9]. Historical Context - In the first half of 2025, global conflicts increased demand for gold, leading to a significant price rise. By the end of June, the London gold price had increased by 24.31% compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - The average gold price for the first half of 2025 was 3066.59 USD per ounce, up 39.21% year-on-year [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that while gold may experience short-term declines due to shifting interest towards silver and copper, the fundamental reasons for gold's strength as a safe-haven asset remain unchanged [9].

与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，今年初尤其是4月初以来， 关税战和全球贸易战成为影响金价的重要因素，贸易战激烈时金价上行，达成关税协议、贸易战缓和时金价明 显回落。 美日、美欧之间关税谈判落定，市场对全球经济风险判断转向，作为避险资产的黄金投资热度下降。 此外，地缘政治风险上升时金价抬升，缓和时金价下行，过去几年地缘政治风险一直是影响金价的主要因素。经济数据和货币政策也有影响。美国就业率 好转、美元指数上升，对黄金价格形成压制。 29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价 995元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌25元/克。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。 从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报3310.0美元/盎司。 专家提醒，未来黄金价 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, closing at $3314.44, marking a drop of approximately 0.66% [1] - The downward trend in gold prices is influenced by the strong rebound of the US dollar index, improved global risk appetite, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] - The recent US-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a global economic downturn, boosting risk assets and putting pressure on gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - The US and EU have reached a trade agreement that sets import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The agreement includes a commitment from the EU to make strategic purchases worth up to $750 billion during Trump's term, further enhancing market optimism and reducing demand for gold [4] - Ongoing US-China trade talks provide some support for gold prices, as negotiations aim to extend the trade truce by 90 days, although no significant breakthroughs are expected [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [6] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend for gold, with four consecutive days of declines suggesting strong selling pressure [8] - Short-term price movements may challenge the support level around $3250, with potential further declines if this level is breached [8] - Current trading activity shows gold prices stabilizing around the $3300 mark, with traders advised to monitor for potential short positions near $3330 [8] Market Sentiment - The US bond market reflects optimistic sentiment, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices continue to perform strongly, indicating a preference for risk assets among investors [2] - Despite the positive sentiment in equities, the upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases may introduce new volatility into the market [2]