苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7018 386476 | -122 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 16850 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 374550 7018 | -62793 -122 | | | | | 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 303349 | 21711 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -22091 | -5906 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 408567 8040 | 22756 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) -64 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 874 | -5067 -11 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250603：或有反弹 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 指标 单位 今值 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,400.00 | | | | -1.06% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,620.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | -0.78% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -220.00 | | | | -45.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -20.00 | | | | - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -22.17 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.20 | | | | 2.09 -3.80 | | | | 价差 | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -85.00 10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 | | | | -50.00 - | | | | 铅 沪铅连二 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG | 基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 PVC：低位震荡，短期不宜追空 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 4764 | 4680 | -84 | -39 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货市场价格维持小区间震荡，现货一口价表现坚挺，盘面价格小空间震荡，实盘成交重心 依然偏低，基本面供应增长预期不变，需求未有改善，市场成交承压，华东地区电石法五型在 4620-4750 元/吨，乙烯法在 4850-5100 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 基本面看，当前西北氯碱一体化仍有利润，PVC 高产量，高库存的结构难以缓解。市场持续做空氯碱利 润，PVC 期货价格创年内新低。不过由于 PVC 估值低位，空头止盈意愿也较强，因此不宜追空。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期 ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 沥青：跟随原油反弹，短线震荡为主 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,452 | -1.57% | 3,452 | 0.00% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,457 | -1.62% | 3,457 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2506 | 手 | 18,125 | 1,173 | 13,727 | (8,388) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 295,344 | (3,202) | 100,590 | (12,522) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 03 日 铅：区间运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16620 | -0.78% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1964 | 0.18% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 52931 | 15856 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6771 | 1184 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 53330 | 7334 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 144961 | 5801 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -20 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -23.5 | -0.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -85 | -50 | 进口升贴 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 价格快速下杀，关注供给端变化 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂部分复产，但由于工业硅价格快速下跌，市场亦传言 其后续复产规划将暂且搁置。6 月西南进入丰水期后，预计仍 有少量工厂计划复产。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅开工 率回升，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需采购。 多晶硅厂家近期粉单招标价格下跌至 8800-9000 元/吨，有机硅 亦以 521#替代 421#，521#采购价格在 8300-8400 元/吨。目前 盘面价格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，基差快速走强，部分贸 易商开始陆续囤货，后续关注供给端的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 6 月签单逐步展开，现货成交价格略有下调。考虑龙头企业率 先复产乐山产能，6 月硅片排产上调至 9.3 万吨。此外，市场 传言某新疆二三线硅料厂二期产能有复产计划，后续根据实际 进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。根据 SMM，截至 5 月 29 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+1 万吨。近期下游备货 使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为前期原材料库存较 高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料囤货。在多晶硅现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA, and maintain the operation of going long on PX and short on naphtha/PTA as the supply - demand pattern is tight [8]. - For PTA, it is in a high - level volatile market on a single - side basis. Hold the position of compressing PTA processing fees. Adopt the idea of going long on the spread when it is low in the medium - term. The PTA market is still in a de - stocking pattern and the spread will remain strong [8]. - For MEG, although the inventory is continuously decreasing and the basis is rising, due to further production cuts by polyester factories, go long on PTA and short on MEG. The month - spread is strong in the short - term but not recommended for further chasing [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices and Changes**: On May 29, 2025, PX主力收盘 was 6788, PTA主力收盘 was 4814, MEG主力收盘 was 4359, PF主力收盘 was 6500, and SC主力收盘 was 3558, with daily changes of 3.0%, 3.0%, 1.1%, 1.8%, and 2.6% respectively [2]. - **Month - spreads**: The PX (9 - 1) month - spread on May 29 was 248, with a daily change of 62; PTA (9 - 1) was 198, with a daily change of 50; MEG (9 - 1) was 79, with a daily change of 14; PF(7 - 8) was 22, with a daily change of - 2; PX - EB07 was - 304, with a daily change of 12 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread on May 29 was 402, with a daily change of 13; PTA09 - MEG09 was 455, with a daily change of 94; PTA07 - PF07 was - 1562, with a daily change of 34; PF07盘面加工费 was 801, with a daily change of - 26; PTA09 - LU09 was 1350, with a daily change of 59 [2]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: On May 29, the PX basis was 145, PTA basis was 195, MEG basis was 147, PF basis was - 50, and PX - naphtha spread was 274. The daily changes of PX, PTA, MEG, and PF bases were - 198, 10, - 5, and - 10 respectively [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 29, PTA仓单数 was 56248, 乙二醇仓单数 was 10239, 短纤仓单数 was 0, PX仓单数 was 0, and SC仓单数 was 4029000 [2]. 2. Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 29, the PX price rose. Three July Asian spot transactions were at 857, 857, 857.5 respectively. The PX valuation was 852 dollars/ton, up 16 dollars from the 28th. The rise was due to the market's optimistic attitude after the US trade court blocked Trump's tariff policy and short - term supply tightness [4][5]. - **PTA Market**: In the Chinese mainland, the Nengtou 100 - million - ton and Taihua 150 - million - ton PTA plants restarted, while the Dushan Energy 300 - million - ton plant was under maintenance. By Thursday, the PTA load dropped to 75.7%, and the current PTA operating rate was around 81.6% [5]. - **MEG Market**: As of May 29, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 59.83% (up 1.58% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 57.19% (down 4.06% from the previous period) [6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating load of large - scale polyester filament factories remained stable this week. By Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester filament was around 72%. The overall polyester load in the Chinese mainland dropped to around 91.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 29th were differentiated, with an average sales rate of 6 - 70% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber in Fujian were better than those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with an average sales rate of 111% by 3:00 pm [6][7].

Report Title - Nickel: Short-term cost support, weak expectations limit flexibility [1] - Stainless Steel: Negative feedback leads to an increase in marginal production cuts, making a deep decline difficult [2] Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has short-term cost support, but weak expectations limit its upward flexibility [1] - The stainless steel market experiences negative feedback, resulting in an increase in marginal production cuts, and it is difficult for prices to decline significantly [2] Fundamental Tracking Nickel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,480, down 2,920 from T - 5 and 3,700 from T - 22 [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 181,192, up 79,974 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 1 imported nickel is 120,375, down 3,175 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 954, up 5 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 250, down 37 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate import profit is - 2,830, up 382 from T - 5 [2] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,690, down 190 from T - 5 [2] - The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 139,550, up 21,935 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100, down 75 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, unchanged from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) is 12,775, unchanged from T - 5 [2] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will take effect on April 26, 2025 [2] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [3] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial production stage, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [5] - The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the government plans to implement an export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue the shutdown and maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7] - The trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of eggs is neutral, with a value of 0, indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2507 is 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 1.00%, trading volume change of 68,224, and position change of -16,075. The closing price of egg 2509 is 3,750 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.67%, trading volume change of 6,024, and position change of -4,374 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -684 (previous day: -660), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -834 (previous day: -840) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.05 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The corn spot price is 2,316 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 14.50 yuan/kg [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral market sentiment [1]