Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan. The 5 - month LPR was lowered by 10bp. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][7] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. China's gold imports reached a new high in 11 months last month. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the market is in a weak - oscillation pattern. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [14][15] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The high iron - water production supports the demand for iron ore, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation level has declined, and the futures rebounded after being supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. For coke, although the steel - mill iron - water production is high, some steel mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The futures may continue to decline in the short term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [18][19][20] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. High - level inventories put pressure on the market. For manganese - silicon, investors can consider out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s crude - oil production increase continues, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upwards. The inventory in the ARA region and Singapore has decreased, and the global trade demand has recovered. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main fuel - oil contract [26][27] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract declined. The PX load has decreased, and the import volume has declined. The short - term crude - oil price fluctuates, and the PX valuation is being repaired. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost - end crude - oil changes and macro - policy adjustments [27] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract declined. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations and pay attention to risk control [28] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract declined. The supply has decreased, the port inventory may continue to decline slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29][30] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract declined. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, the downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to risk control [31] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract declined. The raw - material cost support still exists, the supply load has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and attention should be paid to cost - price changes [32][33] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed down. Multiple device overhauls have led to a reduction in supply, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. The price may continue to fluctuate steadily [34] Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed up. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree needs to be considered [35][37] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed down. The production has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is limited. The price of alumina may support the price of caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid - chlorine prices [38] Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed up. The tariff negotiation has achieved results, giving the pulp market some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction actions of international pulp mills and the implementation of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [39][40][41] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, lithium - carbonate prices have continuously hit new lows. The supply may increase, and the demand may weaken. The current supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is advisable to control risks in the short term, and the price rebound needs the support of large - scale upstream production reduction [42][43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downwards. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on the real economy and the callback pressure after the sharp rise of Shanghai copper are factors to consider. It is advisable to conduct short - position operations on the main Shanghai - copper contract [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply may increase in the future, but the current consumption data is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the upward pressure on the tin price is relatively large. It is advisable to take a short - position view [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the downstream loss has increased, and the demand may weaken. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [47] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon and polysilicon main contracts declined. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply reduction is limited, and the cost support has weakened. The price fluctuation has intensified. It is recommended to maintain a short - position view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [48] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract declined, and the soybean - oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans may be abundant in the future. It is advisable to observe the soybean - meal main contract, and for soybean oil, out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom - support range [49][50] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [51][53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a callback [54][55] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The suspension of Sino - US tariff increases is beneficial to cotton. The global cotton supply - demand situation and domestic planting conditions need to be considered. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [56][57][58] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and range - bound operations are advisable [59][60][61] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures had little fluctuation. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a callback [62][63][64] Pigs - The national average price of pigs declined slightly. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe [65][66] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply may increase. It is advisable to go short after a rebound [67][69] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand. It is advisable to temporarily observe [70][71][72] Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of logs closed down. The expected arrival volume has increased, but the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. The market has no obvious driving force [73][74]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [13]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [14][15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [16][17]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and also consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [18][19]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25]. - For PX, it is recommended to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policy adjustments [26]. - For PTA, it is recommended to conduct range trading and control risks [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and caution is needed for the upside space, paying attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29]. - For staple fiber, it is recommended to participate cautiously and control risks [30][31]. - For bottle chips, it is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [32]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - For glass, it is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [35]. - For caustic soda, it is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - For pulp, it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [39][40]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to run weakly [41]. - For copper, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - For tin, it is expected that the price will face greater pressure above, and a bearish and fluctuating view is taken [44]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season, and maintain a bearish judgment overall [46][47][48]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - For cotton, wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - For sugar, conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - For apples, focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - For eggs, consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - For corn and starch, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price runs lightly, with weak support for the futures price [73][74]. Summaries According to the Catalog Chemical Products - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.31%. Supply decreased, port arrivals decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and demand improved, but the lack of cost drivers suppressed the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [29]. - **Staple Fiber**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.58%. The supply load was at a relatively high level, the downstream terminal demand improved slightly, but the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust following the cost end in the short term [30][31]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.61%. The raw material cost support remained, the supply load increased, and the downstream demand improved. It is expected to follow the cost end in the future [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1284 yuan/ton, down 1.91%. In the short term, supply decreased due to device maintenance, but in the long - term, the oversupply situation was difficult to alleviate. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1018 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There was no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 2586 yuan/ton, up 1.77%. Production decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand for alumina increased. It is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 5390 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The supply was abundant, the downstream consumption was weak, and it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.5%. The supply - demand structure improved, the inventory decreased, but the cost support was insufficient. It is recommended to conduct range trading [27][28]. - **PX**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.3%. The PXN spread continued to repair, the supply load decreased, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [26]. Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The previous trading day's main contract closed down 2.27% to 61180 yuan/ton. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to run weakly [41]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day's Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, and the price adjusted in the high - level range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day's Shanghai tin rose 0.15% to 264390 yuan/ton. There was a game between the current shortage pattern and the loose expectation. It is expected that the price will face greater pressure above [44]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel fell 0.31% to 123520 yuan/ton. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The previous trading day's industrial silicon main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, down 1.87%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 37150 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The demand was weak, the supply reduction was limited, and it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.55% to 2886 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.31% to 7776 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans was expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal was high, and for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory was accumulating. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The German winter rapeseed planting area increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. Consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The Sino - US tariff suspension was beneficial to cotton. Wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian production was low but was expected to increase. The domestic inventory was low and the import volume was low. Conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fluctuated little. The inventory was at a low level in recent years. Focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day's national average price of live pigs was 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.01. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day's main - producing area egg average price was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10; the main - selling area egg average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.10. The supply was expected to increase, and consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.55% to 2330 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.78% to 2669 yuan/ton. The supply pressure was still there in the short term, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price was running weakly [73][74]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, with caution advised [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.54%, and the silver main contract rose 0.40%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [10][11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The demand for rebar was weak, but there was short - term support in the peak season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern improved, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24%, and the silicon iron main contract fell 0.45%. The demand was weak, and different strategies are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [18][19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the price pressure was high. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand recovered. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25].

本次下调落实后，2 0 2 5年以来，国内成品油零售限价已达5次下调，国内多地9 2 #汽油将有望 自 2 1 年 底 之 后 重 新 进 入 " 6 元 时 代 " ， 0 # 柴 油 亦 有 望 进 入 2 1 年 以 来 的 低 位 水 平 ， 部 分 省 份 进 入" 6 . 5元"以内。 作 者丨费心懿 编 辑丨骆一帆 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制， 2 0 2 5年5月1 9日2 4时汽、柴油零售限价分别下调2 3 0元/吨、2 2 0元/吨，折升价9 2 #汽油、9 5 # 汽油、0 #柴油分别下调0 . 1 8元、0 . 1 9元、0 . 1 9元。 消费者用油成本减少， 以油箱容量为5 0升的家用轿车为例，加满一箱9 2 #汽油将少花 9 元 。 以 月 跑 2 0 0 0 公 里 ， 百 公 里 平 均 油 耗 8L 的 燃 油 汽 车 为 例 ， 下 次 调 价 窗 口 开 启 前 （ 6 月 3 日 2 4 时 ） ， 单 辆 车 的 燃 油 成 本 将 减 少 1 4 元 左 右 。 物 流 行 业 ， 以 月 跑 1 0 0 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariffs, global economic recession risks, and policy adjustments. Different sectors show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, believes in the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and has different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 14, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. The current macro data is stable, but tariffs may lead to a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The external environment is favorable for treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. It is recommended to be cautious as the Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, the report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the increasing risk of global economic recession due to tariffs, may lead to passive monetary policy easing in various countries, which is expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The progress of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade statement and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in the US have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will rise, and it is recommended to go long on the Shanghai copper main contract [51]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The复产 of mines in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar increases the supply expectation, while the current supply is tight. It is expected that tin prices will face upward pressure and show a bearish - oscillating trend [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The tightening of the ore supply policy in Indonesia and the Philippines provides cost support, but the downstream is in a state of over - supply. It is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [54]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the market is worried about oversupply. After the short - term rise, crude oil may face a correction. It is recommended to take a short position on the crude oil main contract [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is beneficial for the recovery of fuel oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the fuel oil main contract [24][25]. Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. Supply pressure persists, but the demand side is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost side has rebounded significantly. It is expected to be short - term bullish [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand side may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [29]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [31]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The adjustment of domestic export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish - oscillating trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [34]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread is continuously repairing, and the supply and demand situation is improving. With the upward repair of crude oil prices and positive macro - sentiment, PX is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to participate on dips [36]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The supply side has decreased, the demand side has increased, and the cost side is supported. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to repair upward. It is recommended to operate in the low - range [37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increase is not obvious, the port inventory is decreasing, and the demand side is improving. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will continue to rise. It is recommended to participate on dips [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to go long on dips [41]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw material price is rising, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and rebound [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract rose. The raw material prices are falling, the production is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The market is in a loose pattern, but short - term adjustments may occur due to device maintenance. Short - position holders at low levels should adjust their positions [44]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The production line is at a low level, and the market is weak. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short - term, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina downstream is limited, but some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may provide some driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [46]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff breakthrough has given some confidence to the pulp market, but the supply - demand situation is still loose. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to international pulp mill production cuts and domestic consumption stimulus policies [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply side is difficult to further reduce production, the demand side is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to show a bearish trend [50]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options [58]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil rose. The inventory in Malaysia has increased, and Indonesia has raised the export tax. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures showed mixed performance. The 45Z bio - fuel tax credit extension is negative for rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rapeseed meal after a correction [62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose slightly. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report is negative, but the Sino - US negotiation is progressing smoothly, which is beneficial for cotton. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but there may be a short - term support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose slightly. The production in Brazil and India is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level with low imports. It is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to operate within the range [68]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. There is a production reduction in some apple - producing areas, and the current inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the spot price will be strong in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after a correction [71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the live pig futures main contract rose. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg futures main contract fell slightly. The egg supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide some support. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log futures main contract rose. The import volume of logs and sawn timber has decreased, and the spot price shows regional differentiation. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures [82].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) continues its recent upward trend, reaching 0.6444 against the US dollar, with a daily increase of 0.36% supported by strong employment data and optimistic market sentiment regarding the US-China trade agreement [1] - Australia's April employment report shows resilience in the labor market, with 89,000 new jobs added, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 22,500, while the unemployment rate remains low at 4.1% [3] - The market is pricing in a 54% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the upcoming meeting, reflecting strong expectations for monetary easing [3] Group 2 - The price level around 0.6440 is currently a focal point for market contention, with a potential breakout above last year's high of 0.6515 opening a path towards 0.6687, a seven-month high reached in November 2024 [4] - The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6429 serves as the first support level, with a breach potentially leading to a decline towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6355, and further technical selling could target the 0.5914 area, not seen since March 2020 [4] - The technical analysis indicates mixed signals, with the AUD/USD remaining above the nine-day EMA and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing above the neutral level of 50, suggesting short-term upward momentum may persist [3]

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正：将高度关注中美贸易协议进展情况。 ...

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between China and the U.S. is unlikely to restore soybean exports from the U.S. [1] - Without a final trade agreement, U.S. soybean prices may not hold the USDA's expected price of $10.25 and could further decline [1] Industry Summary - A well-known agricultural consulting firm indicates that the current trade situation is detrimental to U.S. soybean exports [1] - The potential for U.S. soybean prices to drop below expectations highlights the ongoing volatility in the agricultural market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various commodities. It suggests different investment strategies based on market conditions, such as being cautious with bonds, considering long positions in stock index futures, and taking long positions in gold futures [6][10][12]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 5 - year contract fell slightly. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. It is recommended to be cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising slightly, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell [8]. - **Analysis**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long positions in stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index improved [12]. - **Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and trade frictions are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to take long positions in gold futures on dips [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [14]. - **Analysis**: The real estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the current peak demand season may support prices. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [16]. - **Analysis**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke from steel mills is weakening. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [18][19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Spot prices also showed some changes [21]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are concerns about manganese ore supply disruptions. It is recommended to consider long positions in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and exit short positions for silicon iron at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. There are various data and news in the energy market [23][24]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening high and then fluctuating lower. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The possibility of relaxed US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, but tariff agreements are beneficial for demand recovery. It is recommended to take long positions in the main fuel oil contract [27][28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure persists, but demand is expected to improve due to tariff expectations, and costs are rebounding. It is expected to be short - term bullish [30][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [32]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, but demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. Spot prices increased slightly, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Analysis**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [35][37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The adjustment of export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor policy changes and price differences between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread increased [41]. - **Analysis**: The short - term upward repair of crude oil prices and positive sentiment are expected to drive PX prices to rebound. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to crude oil price changes and macro - policies [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased [42]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure and the expected improvement in costs are expected to drive PTA prices to rebound. It is recommended to operate in the low - price range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is slower than expected, and imports are reduced. It is expected that prices will have upward space. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Demand improved slightly, and costs increased [44]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals and the support from costs are expected to drive short - fiber prices to adjust bullishly. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on dips and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Costs increased, and demand improved [45]. - **Analysis**: The increase in raw material prices and the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals are expected to drive bottle - chip prices to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to cost price changes [45]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Production decreased, and inventory increased [46]. - **Analysis**: The market remains in a loose pattern, but the concentrated maintenance in May may lead to short - term adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. There are changes in production lines and market prices [47][48][49]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The tariff adjustment and the expected policy support may have an impact on market sentiment, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Production increased slightly, and inventory was at a neutral level [50]. - **Analysis**: The demand for caustic soda is limited, but the maintenance of some plants in May may provide some driving force. It is necessary to focus on plant operations and liquid chlorine prices [50][51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff negotiation result gave some confidence, but the supply - demand situation is still loose [52]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound may be due to tariff news. It is necessary to pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption - stimulating policies [52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand situation is in surplus [54][55]. - **Analysis**: The decline in ore prices weakens the cost support, and the demand slows down. It is expected to run weakly [55]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. Spot prices decreased slightly [56]. - **Analysis**: The Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day moving average suppresses prices. The Sino - US negotiation results may lead to price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. There are changes in supply and demand [58][59]. - **Analysis**: The contradiction between the current shortage and the expected supply increase is expected to lead to a bearish - fluctuating trend [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply and demand situation is complex [60]. - **Analysis**: The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity after the repair of macro - sentiment [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Spot prices of polysilicon decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The demand in the industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is in the capacity - clearing cycle, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [61][62]. Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Spot prices also changed [63]. - **Analysis**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is strong, and it is recommended to consider out - of - the - money call options [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose, but the increase was limited by inventory. Domestic palm oil imports and consumption data are available [65][66]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67]. Rapeseed Meal/Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. There are changes in domestic supply and demand and inventory [68]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider long positions in rapeseed meal after a pull - back [68][69]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures fluctuated, and external cotton futures fell. There are various data and news [70][71]. - **Analysis**: The end of the peak season weakens demand, but the Sino - US negotiation results may support prices. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay attention to tariff policies [70][72][73]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures fluctuated at a low level, and external sugar futures rose. There are production and inventory data from Brazil and India [75]. - **Analysis**: The global trade friction affects demand. It is expected to run in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [75][76][77]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. There are signs of production reduction, and inventory is at a low level [78][79]. - **Analysis**: The low inventory and the expected production reduction may lead to a strong spot price. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pull - back [79][80]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [81]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices rose. There are data on production, cost, and inventory [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may support prices. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [83][84]. Corn/Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [85][86][87]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of corn is still there, but the bottom support is strong. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. Import data and spot price changes are available [88]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the spot market has weak support for the futures price [88][89].

金十数据5月13日讯，美股周二上涨，标普500指数抹去了今年迄今的跌幅，低于预期的通胀数据为股市 涨势增添了动力。股市走势延续了过去一个月的反弹势头，使标普500指数今年上涨了0.1%。在特朗普 4月2日宣布 "解放日"关税之前，贸易紧张局势加剧已经对美股造成了伤害，投资者抛售美国资产并下 调了对经济增长的预期，导致该指数最高暴跌15%。但4月9日在特朗普暂停对大多数国家征收对等关税 后，交易员重新涌入股市。Putnam Investments股票基金经理Shep Perkins说，"过去几个月的主要趋势瞬 间发生了逆转。中美贸易协议是一个巨大的利好惊喜。" 标普500指数抹去年内跌幅 美股涨势延续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rising 1.1% and the Nikkei 225 index increasing by 1.4%, marking the longest consecutive rise since August 2009 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index has achieved a consecutive rise for 13 trading days, while the Nikkei 225 index has risen for four consecutive days [1] - The rebound in the Japanese stock market is attributed to the easing of global trade tensions, particularly the reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Reductions - According to JPMorgan's latest research, the easing of tariffs is expected to reduce the negative impact on Japanese corporate earnings to between -6.4% and -4.2% [4][6] - If U.S.-Japan negotiations lead to a reduction of tariffs on specific goods like automobiles to 10%, the negative impact could further decrease to -4.2% [6] - In a high tariff scenario, if the U.S. maintains high tariffs, the overall impact on Japanese corporate earnings could reach -10.9% [6][7] Group 3: Factors Driving Market Recovery - JPMorgan identifies three main factors driving the market recovery: stable U.S. economic data, progress in trade agreements, and potential easing of semiconductor technology export restrictions [5][10] - The market's performance is also supported by expectations of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, which are anticipated to conclude by mid-June or early July [10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Despite the current strong trend, JPMorgan warns that global markets may face downward pressure in the summer, influenced by potential economic slowdowns [10][11] - The Japanese stock market is expected to be buoyed by trade negotiation outcomes and easing yen appreciation pressures, alongside ongoing corporate reforms [10]