Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]

Market Overview - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been influenced by easing tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to a significant sell-off in gold markets with a nearly 3% drop on May 12, marking the largest single-day decline of the year [1] - The price of spot gold fell to a low of $3207.73 per ounce before closing at $3234.79, leaving a notable long bearish candlestick on the daily chart [1] - The US dollar index surged by 1.5%, surpassing the 101 mark, reaching a two-month high of 101.97, which negatively impacted gold prices by making it more expensive for foreign buyers [1] Economic Indicators - The US dollar has strengthened for three consecutive weeks due to optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement, although it has still declined by 2.2% since the announcement of tariffs on April 2 [2] - Key economic data to be released this week includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales figures, which are expected to provide insights into the impact of trade conflicts on the economy and Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations [2] - Market sentiment has shifted, with traders adjusting their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a potential cut of at least 25 basis points in September [2] Technical Analysis - The current gold price trend indicates a bearish adjustment following the significant drop, but the overall long-term outlook remains bullish [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3260 and $3290, while support is expected around the $3200 mark [3][5] - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with two potential scenarios: either a breakdown below $3200 or a rebound above this level leading to further upward movement [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested short positions include selling gold in the range of $3245-$3250 with a target of $3220-$3210, while long positions could be initiated around $3200-$3205 with a target of $3230-$3250 [6] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders and adjusting positions based on market movements [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. and China are exploring a mechanism to negotiate a more permanent trade agreement to prevent tariff escalations following the tariffs imposed by President Trump on April 2 [1] - A recent agreement was reached to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods within 90 days, lowering the overall tariff from 145% to 30% [1] - The tariffs imposed before April 2 will remain in effect, and the 20% tariffs from Trump's first term will also continue to exist [1][2] Group 2 - The trade agreement reached during Trump's administration is viewed as a "good starting point" for future negotiations, although the Biden administration has not fully executed the trade agreement [2] - Ongoing negotiations are focused on preventing China from circumventing tariffs by routing goods through other countries [2] - Achieving a new permanent agreement will take time, and the discussions have been respectful [3]

12 May 2025 05:04:38 ET │ 9 pages Flash | China Economics US-China Phase 1.5 Deal Much Better than Expected CITI'S TAKE The US-China tariff reductions have come in even bigger than our bullish expectations. The US's effective tariff on China has been lowered to 38.6%, per our estimates, back to the non-prohibitive days. Looking ahead, the 20% Fentanyl tariff could be a low-hanging fruit for further reduction, in our view, and its rollback could further remove the external hurdle for the Chinese economy. The ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that while sentiment towards the US stock market is improving, it is too early for investors to signal a "full alarm lift" [1] - The team led by Michael Wilson identified four factors necessary for a sustained rally, noting progress in only two: optimism around a trade agreement and stabilization of earnings forecasts [1] - The remaining two factors—more dovish Federal Reserve policies and 10-year Treasury yields below 4% without recession data—have not yet been achieved [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the US and China reached an important consensus on trade issues, leading to a jump in S&P 500 futures and a rebound in risk assets [3] - The S&P 500 index has recovered about half of its nearly 19% decline since February due to concerns over a global trade war, with the US government beginning negotiations with trade partners [3] - Approximately 30 companies have withdrawn or suspended earnings guidance due to tariff uncertainties, particularly in the automotive, durable goods, and industrial sectors [3] - Since the earnings reports were released, the average stock price increase in these sectors has risen [3] - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the previous resistance level of 5500 and is back in the range of 5500-6100, with further significant increases dependent on the details of the US-China trade agreement and a re-acceleration of earnings forecasts [3] - The next critical technical test for the S&P 500 index is at the convergence of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages (5750-5800) [3]

马士基：中美之间的协议是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。希望能够为双方达成一项永久性协议奠定基础， 从而为我们的客户创造长期的可预测性。我们的客户已经获得了90天的关税减免，我们正在努力帮助他 们充分利用这段时间。 ...

Flash | 11 May 2025 22:23:52 ET │ 9 pages China Economics The Likely Shape of US-China Phase 1.5 Deal – Quick Take on the Geneva Talks CITI'S TAKE The US and China held a 2-day long conversation in Switzerland. We see the progress as a potential Phase 1.5 deal, resolving the easy part of the trade talks between the two countries. The Fentanyl tariffs and escalatory tariffs could be rolled back, and China is likely to make concession in reversible areas. It is now more likely in our view that the effective t ...

Market Reaction - The White House may ease tariff policies, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stock markets, with the Dow Jones up 2.65%, gaining over 1000 points, the Nasdaq up 3.72%, and the S&P 500 up 2.95% [1][2] Technology Sector Performance - Major U.S. tech stocks saw substantial gains, with all seven tech giants rising over 3%, and Amazon increasing nearly 7% [2][3] Chinese Stocks Surge - Chinese stocks also experienced a strong rally, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 5%, and companies like Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba all gaining more than 5% [3][4] European Market Trends - European stock markets also posted significant gains, with France's CAC40 index up over 2%, Germany's DAX index up over 3%, and the European Stoxx 50 index up over 3% [5][6] Gold Market Adjustment - Gold prices continued to decline, with the main futures contract reported at $3287.7 per ounce, reflecting a daily drop of 3.85% [6] U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump indicated that U.S. tariffs on China could significantly decrease, stating that the current 145% tariffs are too high, and a deal could lead to reduced tariffs, though not to zero [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned that the current situation resembles a trade embargo, and a comprehensive agreement with China could be reached within two to three years [8] Global Debt Concerns - The IMF reported that global public debt levels are rising amid increasing economic uncertainty, with projections indicating that by 2025, global public debt could exceed 95% of GDP [9][10] - The report warns that in extreme scenarios, global public debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2027, marking the highest level since World War II [10]