截至最新收盘，欧洲斯托克600指数下跌近0.3%。 本周，在美国上周末罢免委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯・马杜罗、随后又威胁夺取格陵兰岛之后，全球市场的 注意力都集中在不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势上。 周四，国防类股延续涨势，投资者持续对相关消息作出反应，推动该板块有望实现连续第五个交易日上 涨。伦克、莱昂纳多和莱茵金属领涨欧洲基准股指，涨幅分别达4.5%、4.7%和3.7%。 欧洲斯托克航空航天与国防指数上涨1.1%。 周四开盘，受美国总统唐纳德・特朗普威胁吞并格陵兰岛的消息持续引发市场担忧影响，欧洲股市低开 走弱。 责任编辑：李肇孚 周三，欧洲石油类股走低，连续第二个交易日延续跌势，原因是投资者对美国企业可能开采委内瑞拉石 油的猜测作出反应。早盘交易中，英国石油下跌0.8%，壳牌下跌1.8%，挪威国家石油公司微跌0.5%。 3月交货的布伦特原油期货价格最新报60.15美元，从周三跌破60美元关口的水平反弹。 周三美股收盘走低，国防类股同样下跌，此前特朗普表示，在国防企业解决他对该行业提出的不满（包 括高管薪酬方案和生产问题）之前，他"不会允许"这些企业派发股息或进行股票回购。 本周，在特朗普威胁美国可能动用军事力量夺 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices declined due to the strengthening of the US dollar, with investors preparing for the upcoming non-farm payroll report and assessing the impact of US pressure on Venezuela [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analysts from MKS PAMP noted that traders are weighing the escalation of geopolitical tensions, including US intervention in Venezuela and potential conflicts in Greenland, while also monitoring macroeconomic signals from the US [1] - Soft employment data has increased market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although investors remain cautious about market volatility and the potential for profit-taking at high levels [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data showed that US job openings fell to a 14-month low in November, indicating a slowdown in hiring activity and a weakening labor demand [1]

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals prices have pulled back from high levels, with silver experiencing a larger decline than gold due to profit - taking by some investors and position adjustments before the re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed easing are expected to limit the downside of gold prices. Silver, which has had a large increase previously, faces high short - term volatility risks [1]. - Gold prices dropped nearly 1% during the day. Given geopolitical tensions, Fed easing expectations, and continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, the downside of gold is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the situation after the US raid on Venezuela, the weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and upcoming economic data [5]. - International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. Along with factors similar to those of gold, attention should also be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US economic data: In December, the ADP employment was 41,000 (expected 47,000, previous - 29,000), the JOLTs job openings in November were 7.146 million (expected 7.6 million, previous 7.449 million), the December ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (expected 52.3, previous 52.6), the October factory order monthly rate was - 1.3% (expected - 1.2%, previous 0.2%), and the October durable goods order monthly rate final value was - 2.2% (in line with expectations and previous value) [2]. - Chinese central bank's gold purchase: As of December 2025, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, with the gold reserve reaching 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from November. The foreign exchange reserve was $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion from November, rising for the 5th consecutive month [2]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment: Starting from January 9, 2026, the flat - today trading fee of the silver futures AG2604 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount. The trading margin ratio, daily price limit, and trading limit of some silver futures contracts will also be adjusted [3]. - Geopolitical event: On January 6, the US White House Press Secretary said that President Trump and his team are discussing "a series of options" to obtain Greenland, including "using the US military" [3]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in gold prices during the day was nearly 1%. Given the weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the central bank, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing expectations, the downside of gold prices is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls report on Friday [5]. - Silver: International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. In addition to factors similar to those of gold, attention should be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [48]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 7, 2026, was 4030.94, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a 5 - day increase of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 14.46%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.40% [49].

【黄金期货行情表现】 1月7日，沪金主力暂报998.90元/克，跌幅0.17%，今日沪金主力开盘价1006.00元/克，截至目前最高 1011.00元/克，最低997.64元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国供应管理协会(ISM)发布的调查显示，12月制造业指数降至47.9，为 2024年10月以来最低，且连续 第10个月低于50，新订单进一步萎缩，投入成本持续攀升，显示该行业仍深受特朗普政府进口关税的拖 累。调查显示，短期内制造业复苏的可能性不大，但随着特朗普的减税政策生效，经济学家仍对今年的 反弹抱有希望。 明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，通胀正在缓慢下降，但失业率仍有可能"跳升"。他表示："我认 为通胀风险在于其持续性，这些关税影响需要数年时间才能在系统中被消化，而我确实认为失业率可能 会从当前水平跳升。"他认为失业率约为4.6%，这表明劳动力市场正在降温。但他对显示通胀也在降温 的数据持怀疑态度，指出秋季创纪录的政府停摆导致数据收集出现问题。 【机构观点】 金银价格高位波动加剧，一方面，地缘政治紧张局势持续升温，有效提振了市场的避险情绪，资金流入 黄金等传统避险资产，为其价格提供了核心支撑。另一方面，白银在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have broken through the resistance level of $78.70, reaching $81.45, and are nearing the record high of $84.03 [1][2][4] Group 1: Price Movement - After a prolonged period of consolidation in the key short-term correction zone ($77.05 to $78.70), the market has broken through the upper resistance level, hitting an intraday high of $81.45 [4] - The market is now close to the record high of $84.03, indicating strong upward momentum [4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors have shifted from a "buying on dips" strategy to a more aggressive "buying on the rise" approach [4] Group 3: Driving Factors - The recent price surge is driven by strong ETF demand, a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical tensions [4] - The optimistic supply-demand outlook, along with robust ETF demand and dovish Fed expectations, has contributed to the price increase [4] - Economic data has also played a role in supporting the upward trend for the new year [4] Group 4: Market Pricing - The spot silver price is reported at 19,510 yuan [4]

Market Analysis - On January 7, amid escalating global geopolitical tensions, gold has shown exceptional performance as a traditional safe-haven asset, with spot gold prices rising approximately 1% to close at $4,494 per ounce [1][5] - In early Asian trading on January 7, spot gold fluctuated at high levels, reaching $4,500.27 per ounce, nearing the historical high of $4,549.71 per ounce set on December 24 of the previous year [1][5] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened investor concerns over global uncertainties, particularly following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment and significant capital inflows into the precious metals market [1][5] Technical Analysis of Gold - The long-term upward trend in gold has not fundamentally changed, with the previous high of $4,550 not yet effectively tested, and there has been no significant corrective movement since the price began rising from lower levels [6] - The 4-hour chart indicates a strong bullish alignment of moving averages, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages providing robust support, limiting the potential for short-term pullbacks [7] - The key support level is identified at $4,460, which is crucial for determining market strength; if this level holds, it is recommended to establish long positions targeting $4,520 and $4,550 [7] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver has reached a high of $82.7, with strong bullish momentum, and the long-term upward trend remains intact [8] - However, due to short-term price increases and divergence in technical indicators, a phase of adjustment is likely, which is considered a healthy correction within the overall upward trend [8] - The critical support level is at $77.5, which serves as both a previous consolidation point and an important defense level for short-term pullbacks; it is advisable to focus on long positions near this support level [8]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is driven by increasing geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over the dollar system, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metal investments [1][3] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce [1] - The demand for gold is being propelled by ongoing inflation worries, geopolitical tensions, and a growing preference for assets outside traditional financial systems [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will reach a new high of $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and increased purchases by central banks and funds [3] Group 2: Investment Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the major investment narrative for 2025 will revolve around significant changes in currency value and global asset allocation, asserting that gold is the true winner amidst perceived stock market gains [1] - Dalio warns that the AI-driven surge in tech stocks has entered an early bubble phase, indicating potential risks in that sector [1] - Gold is increasingly viewed not just as a protective asset but as a core strategic holding, especially as confidence in paper assets fluctuates [3]

受美国逮捕委内瑞拉总统引发地缘政治紧张局势影响，避险需求升温，现货黄金周二(1月6日)再度大 涨。媒体报道称，特朗普政府正讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括"动用军事手段推进目标"，这进一步加 剧地缘政治紧张情绪。 现货黄金周二收盘大涨45.34美元，涨幅1.02%，报4494.21美元/盎司。 金价前一交易日已大涨近 3%，进一步逼近12月24日创下的历史高点4549.71美元/盎司。 FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia指出，因地缘政治担忧盖过美债收益率上升和美元走强，周二， 黄金价格延续涨势，并逼近4500美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，在地缘政治不确定性加剧的情况下，贵金属交易员继续推动黄金和白银价格升向历史高 位。委内瑞拉总统马杜罗(Nicolas Maduro)被捕以及美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)威胁将此类行动扩展 到其他拉美国家，令投资者感到焦虑，从而转向贵金属的避险需求。 Kitco Metals资深分析师Kitco Metals指出，目前贵金属交易员所感受到的风险程度，高于股票与债券市 场交易员，美国上周末对委内瑞拉的突袭行动，持续推动黄金与白 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.573, while spot silver opened at $81.26/oz and is currently around $80.57/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 19,759 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 19,787 CNY/kg [1] - On January 6, the dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 98.601, while spot silver closed at $81.21/oz, up 6.06%. This increase is attributed to strong safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions, with spot gold nearing $4,500 [1] - As of January 6, silver ETF holdings were at 16,118.16 tons, a decrease of 235.44 tons from the previous trading day [1] Geopolitical Developments - Venezuela is negotiating with the US regarding oil exports. During Maduro's early presidency, Venezuela shipped $5.2 billion worth of gold to Switzerland. Recent shipping data indicates that Venezuela's main oil terminal has only been exporting crude oil to the US company Chevron in the past five days [1] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at 76.652, experienced a drop to a low of 75.836, and then surged to a high of 81.448 before closing at approximately 81.1. The market formed a long lower shadow bullish candlestick, indicating potential upward momentum [5] - Current trading strategies suggest maintaining long positions with stop-loss levels set at 79, targeting prices of 80.5, 81.2, and 82-82.6 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising attractiveness of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, concerns over the dollar system, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasized that the major investment narrative for 2025 will revolve around drastic changes in currency value and global asset allocation, asserting that gold is the true winner amidst perceived stock market gains [1] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to ongoing inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a growing demand for assets that are detached from traditional financial systems, positioning gold as a core strategic holding [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could reach a new high of $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and increased purchases by central banks and funds [3] - The historical trend of gold being independent of stock market fluctuations reinforces its role as an effective hedge during market volatility, although determining the appropriate allocation in gold holdings remains crucial [3]