Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of large banks in supporting the real economy and enhancing the capital strength of small and medium-sized banks to maintain financial market stability [1] Group 1: Financial Policy and Support - The meeting highlighted the need to effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] - There is a focus on financing support for key areas such as "two new" and "two heavy" sectors, indicating targeted financial strategies [1] - The use of securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and refinancing, is encouraged to maintain capital market stability [1] Group 2: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The meeting stressed the importance of financial services in supporting the development of the private economy and enhancing coordination for small and micro enterprise financing [1] - Efforts will be made to address the bottlenecks in financing for small and micro enterprises, ensuring smoother access to capital [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting aims to enhance the revitalization of existing residential properties and land to consolidate the stability of the real estate market [1] - There is a commitment to improve the foundational financial systems for real estate and to assist in constructing a new development model for the sector [1] Group 4: Financial Openness and Risk Management - The meeting calls for advancing high-level financial openness and improving economic and financial management capabilities under open conditions [1] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing risk prevention capabilities in the financial sector [1]

人民财讯9月26日电，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第三季度例会，会议指出，要引导大型 银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增强银行资本实力，共同维护金 融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持科技 创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。用好证券、基 金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。持续做好 支持民营经济发展壮大的金融服务，充分发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用，进一步打通中小微 企业融资的堵点和卡点。着力推动已出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力 度，巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发展新模式。切实推进金 融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风险防控能力。 ...

Economic Data - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75%[3] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises recorded a decline of 0.4% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth this year[3] - From January to August, fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 0.5%, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth slowing to 5.1% and 5.4% respectively[3] Consumer Spending - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with restaurant income rising by 2.1%[20] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 14.4%, while communication equipment sales dropped by 7.6%[20] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end[24] - The Fed's shift in focus from inflation control to "full employment" indicates a change in monetary policy strategy[24] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the dollar index strengthened, while gold and U.S. stock prices initially fell before rebounding[26] - The domestic stock market showed clear trends, with the STAR 50 index rising by 1.84% and the ChiNext index increasing by 2.34%[32] Future Outlook - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be emphasized in Q4, with potential fiscal policy support anticipated if consumer spending does not meet expectations during the upcoming National Day holiday[35] - Risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, insufficient fiscal policy support, and unforeseen changes in the global environment[36]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy measures to support economic stability and growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on medium to long-term financial development without immediate policy adjustments [1][3][4]. Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC is adopting a moderately accommodative monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, and utilizing various monetary policy tools to support high-quality economic development [3][4]. - Key macro-financial indicators show positive trends, with social financing scale increasing by 8.4% year-on-year and loans growing by 7.4% [3]. - The broad money supply (M2) is maintaining a steady growth rate of around 7%, significantly higher than nominal economic growth [3]. Specific Policy Actions - The PBOC will implement ten specific measures categorized into three types: quantity-based, price-based, and structure-based policies [5][6]. - Quantity-based measures include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [6][16]. - Price-based measures involve a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates, which will likely lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][17]. - Structure-based measures include the establishment of new policy tools to support technology innovation, consumption expansion, and inclusive finance [5][10]. Financial Market Performance - The stock market has shown stability with the Shanghai Composite Index around 3,300 points, while the bond market has self-corrected due to improved economic confidence [3]. - The onshore and offshore RMB have appreciated by approximately 1% against the US dollar since the end of last year, indicating balanced cross-border capital flows [3]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining a balance between economic growth and financial risk prevention, focusing on structural adjustments to address underlying economic challenges [11][12]. - Significant progress has been made in reducing risks associated with local government financing platforms, with the number of such platforms decreasing by over 60% since early 2023 [12]. - The PBOC is committed to enhancing the financial stability framework, including legislative efforts and the establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy is aimed at enhancing people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and boosting economic growth, as emphasized in recent central government meetings [1][6]. Fiscal Policy and Investment - As of the end of August, the government has allocated approximately 420 billion yuan, which has driven sales of various goods exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan [2]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement has been fully allocated, with plans for a fourth batch in October, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [2]. - The Ministry of Finance has arranged 1.5 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds over the past two years to support effective investment [2][4]. Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The M2 money supply reached 331.98 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5]. - The total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the previous year [5]. - Structural monetary policy tools have been implemented to support key areas such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and small and micro enterprises [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and addressing deep-seated issues [6]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has provided strong financial support for resolving hidden debts, with 1.9 trillion yuan issued for this purpose by the end of August [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience reduced supply pressure, while geopolitical factors and trade policy changes introduce significant uncertainty, maintaining risk-averse sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with long-term bonds performing better, showing a decrease of 2-4 basis points; the closing of government bond futures was up across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.31% [1]. - The overnight repurchase weighted rate for deposit institutions rose to approximately 1.48%, indicating a tightening in the interbank market liquidity due to ongoing tax payment impacts [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations and marking the resumption of rate cuts after nine months; the FOMC statement highlighted increased downside risks to employment and a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, alongside rising inflation [1]. Group 3: Policy Measures - The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies aimed at expanding service consumption, emphasizing the acceleration of artificial intelligence applications in service consumption and the effective use of structural monetary policy tools to enhance funding supply in the consumption sector [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies and measures to expand service consumption. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, introduce a series of policy documents, promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, and use structural monetary policy tools to increase capital supply in the consumption field. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out across the country, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the first since a nine-month pause. Powell said that employment growth has slowed, the risk of employment decline has increased, the labor market is less active than before and slightly weak; inflation has recently risen and is still slightly high; commodity inflation has accelerated, and the decline in service inflation continues; the risk of persistent inflation needs to be managed, and the inflation risk tends to the upside. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is expected to exceed 90% according to US interest rate futures [1]. Spot Market - A-share indices closed with an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3876.34 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automobile, coal, and home appliance industries leading the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and trade retail, and social service industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4 trillion yuan on the day. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.57% to 46018.32 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, this Friday is the delivery day of the current-month contract, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IH increased [2]. Strategy - The Fed's interest rate cut process has entered a new stage, and emerging markets are expected to迎来 stronger upward momentum. The current market is still dominated by liquidity. There is a need for asset allocation adjustment among foreign investors, institutions, and residents in the domestic market. There is room for further increase in the equity market, and funds actively buy during the correction phase. The market is judged to maintain a bullish pattern. The technology sector and themes related to "anti-involution" continue to be active, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance [3]. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts such as the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [10][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 17, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, along with their daily changes [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the open interest and trading volume of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), as well as the basis (futures - spot) and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [15][36][44].

Core Viewpoint - China's monetary policy is shifting towards using reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate cuts to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels, while also allowing for gradual interest rate reductions and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, reducing the RRR for major deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points [3]. - In contrast, the policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4]. - The current average RRR for Chinese financial institutions is approximately 6.2%, suggesting substantial room for further RRR cuts compared to major economies where RRR tools are less utilized [5]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest on record, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the banking sector if interest rates are cut too aggressively [3][4]. - The banking sector is crucial for supporting the real economy, as it accounts for 89.7% of financing in China, compared to only 42% in the U.S., where direct financing plays a larger role [4]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling them to better support proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt is held by commercial banks [6]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is contingent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [6]. Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is limited elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rate changes in China, which diminishes the effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating economic activity [8]. - The decline in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a relationship between lower interest rates and reduced savings [8]. - Despite the current low inflation and a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, there remains room for further interest rate cuts, especially as external conditions improve with potential U.S. rate cuts [8][9]. Group 5: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - China has been innovating structural monetary policy tools, which have become increasingly important in supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [9]. - As of the end of 2024, structural monetary policy tools are expected to account for approximately 14.2% of total bank assets in China, highlighting their growing significance [9].

Group 1 - The forum held by Ant Group and Caixin Media focused on the relationship between capital markets and technological innovation, with an emphasis on the current economic situation in China [1] - Professor Sheng Songcheng highlighted that in the current economic climate, adjusting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is preferred over interest rate cuts [2][3] - Since 2016, the RRR has been adjusted downwards 23 times, decreasing from 17.5% to 9.0% for major deposit-taking financial institutions, while policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times [2] Group 2 - The average weighted reserve requirement ratio for Chinese financial institutions is approximately 6.2%, indicating significant room for further RRR cuts compared to major economies [3] - A 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR could release around 1 trillion yuan into the economy, enhancing liquidity [3] - Lowering the RRR can facilitate better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as commercial banks hold a significant portion of government bonds [4] Group 3 - Interest rate cuts in China have limited effectiveness in stimulating consumption and investment due to low interest elasticity [5] - The decline in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a relationship between lower interest rates and reduced savings [5][6] - Structural monetary policy tools have been increasingly important, with innovations aimed at supporting weak economic sectors and promoting high-quality economic development [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The total social financing stock was 433.66 trillion yuan at the end of August, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1] - In the first eight months, new RMB loans increased by 1.346 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing was 2.656 trillion yuan, which is 466 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The net financing scale of government bonds reached 1.027 trillion yuan in the first eight months, an increase of 463 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Special refinancing bonds have been issued rapidly this year, with 1.9 trillion yuan issued by the end of August to replace hidden debts [2] - The issuance of special bonds for replacing local government hidden debts is expected to support long-term credit growth despite short-term downward effects [2] Group 3 - Credit growth in August was supported by factors such as industry recovery, resilient exports, summer consumption peak, and real estate support policies [3] - Manufacturing loans have significantly increased, with new manufacturing loans accounting for 53% of new corporate loans, a 33 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [3] - Personal loan growth was boosted by traditional summer consumption demand and policies promoting consumption [3] Group 4 - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have introduced real estate policies to better meet housing demand, leading to a significant increase in housing transaction volumes [4] - The introduction of new policies in Shanghai resulted in a notable increase in real estate transactions within a week [4] Group 5 - As of the end of August, the balance of various RMB loans was 269.10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [5] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans for manufacturing reached 14.87 trillion yuan, up by 8.6% [6] - Future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure of credit to support sustainable economic growth [6]