Core Viewpoint - The June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong U.S. labor market and solid economic fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with May's figure revised from 139,000 to 144,000 and April's from 147,000 to 158,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, significantly lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [2]. - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, slightly below expectations and the previous value of 62.4% [2]. - Hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.9% [2]. - The overall employment growth and declining unemployment rate suggest a strong labor market, although the private sector saw a decrease of 63,000 jobs when excluding government job additions [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the non-farm data, the market now anticipates a 93% probability that the July interest rate will remain unchanged, with expectations for rate cuts starting in September, totaling two cuts within the year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's need to lower rates is supported by the actual interest rate being 1.78%, which is higher than the natural rate of 1.0% by 0.78 percentage points [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has previously hindered the Fed's ability to cut rates, but as this uncertainty diminishes, the likelihood of rate cuts increases [3]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently declined too quickly, potentially leading to a reallocation opportunity if rates rise due to increased bond supply and temporary inflation spikes [4]. - The potential passage of significant fiscal legislation could result in approximately $1 trillion in bond issuance from July to September, which, along with inflationary pressures, may drive interest rates higher [4]. - The stock market is also expected to face challenges in the third quarter, but any volatility could present reallocation opportunities, maintaining a non-pessimistic outlook [4].

宏观研究团队 ——美国 6 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 6 月非农就业数据。其中新增非农就业 14.7 万，超市场预期。 失业率为 4.1%，平均时薪同比增长 3.7%，低于市场预期。 宏观经济点评 政府就业支撑美国 6 月非农再超预期 1. 新增非农就业再超市场预期，且前值经历小幅上修 6 月美国新增非农就业 14.7 万人，较 5 月份初值（13.9 万）回升，且大幅高于 市场预期的 10.6 万。4 月、5 月新增非农就业累计上修 1.6 万，为 2025 年首 次。趋势上看，近 3 个月平均新增就业 14.97 万人，亦出现上行。结构上看， 政府就业贡献了 6 月新增非农就业的将近 50%，主要是州和地方政府，较为罕 见。私人部门方面，建筑业、零售业新增就业较 5 月上升较多。总体看，6 月 非农数据显示当前美国劳动力市场韧性较为明显，但考虑到 6 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 147,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [1][5] - The upward revisions of previous months' employment data further confirm the underlying strength of the labor market [5] Employment Growth - Despite the positive June figures, overall employment growth is showing signs of slowing down, indicating that companies are becoming more cautious in hiring due to economic uncertainties [6] - Employers are more inclined to retain existing staff rather than engage in large-scale hiring, reflecting a trend of "labor hoarding" [6] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly wage growth in June was 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9%, suggesting a decrease in wage inflation pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7] Structural Issues in the Labor Market - Significant disparities exist in unemployment rates among different demographic groups, with the Black unemployment rate rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites have decreased [8] - The number of long-term unemployed has increased to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, indicating ongoing challenges for certain labor segments [8] Industry Performance - Government employment increased by 73,000, particularly in state government education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs, highlighting the public sector and essential services as key drivers of job growth [9] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July significantly decreased [10] - The probability of a September rate cut also dropped from 98% to approximately 80%, reflecting confidence in the current labor market conditions [10] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong labor market performance reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, with market expectations shifting towards potential cuts in September or December [11] - Future non-farm data and inflation reports will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. labor market remains strong despite economic slowdown, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected increase of 106,000 for the fourth consecutive month [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% in June, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, indicating resilience in the labor market [1] - Private sector employment increased by only 74,000 in June, the lowest since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [1] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in economic activity and increasing uncertainties, companies are generally reluctant to lay off employees [1] - Following the release of the employment data, traders abandoned bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, reflecting market sentiment regarding monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there would be no rush to lower borrowing costs until the impact of tariffs on inflation becomes clearer [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of slow hiring and slow layoffs, as evidenced by the latest non-farm payroll report [1] - Employers added 147,000 jobs, with a total of 74,000 jobs created in the private sector [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, and employment growth for April and May was revised upward by 16,000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated, especially after the unexpected negative ADP employment report, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [1][2][8]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. non-farm payroll for June will show an increase of 106,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [3][5]. - The range of predictions from Wall Street institutions for the June non-farm payroll varies between 70,000 and 160,000 jobs [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Scenarios - If the non-farm payroll data is weak, the likelihood of a rate cut in July increases, while strong data would eliminate that possibility [2][10]. - Morgan Stanley outlines five potential scenarios based on the non-farm payroll results, with varying impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job growth figures [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - A non-farm payroll result below 85,000 could signal recession risks, while results above 145,000 may lead to a reassessment of economic growth trajectories [10][17].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in ADP employment numbers for June, which decreased by 33,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with the market expectation of an increase of 100,000 jobs. This marks the first negative reading since March 2023 and indicates underlying issues in the employment market despite its apparent strength [1][3][5]. Group 2 - The service sector is the hardest hit, with professional and business services losing 56,000 jobs, followed by the education and healthcare sector with a reduction of 52,000 jobs, and financial activities decreasing by 14,000 jobs. The Midwest and Western regions also saw job losses of 24,000 and 20,000 respectively, while the Southern region barely maintained slight growth [3][5]. - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 20 employees, experienced a net loss of 29,000 jobs, highlighting their vulnerability under high interest rates and policy uncertainty, whereas larger companies with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs [3][5]. - ADP's Chief Economist Neela Richardson pointed out that while mass layoffs have not occurred, companies are adopting a strategy of "freezing hiring" and "not filling vacancies," leading to a passive contraction in employment. The average monthly job growth over the past three months has been only 18,700, the lowest since the onset of the pandemic [5][7]. Group 3 - The tightening of immigration policies has led to a decline in foreign labor, resulting in a reduction of 2 million in labor supply, which is more impactful than tariff effects. A recent study warns that net immigration in the U.S. could reach zero or even negative this year, necessitating the creation of only 10,000 to 40,000 jobs monthly to maintain the current unemployment rate, but this could permanently damage economic growth potential [5][7]. - Following the ADP data release, traders increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July from 20% to 27.4%, with expectations for at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as economists expect an addition of 110,000 jobs, but past data revisions have raised concerns about the reliability of these figures [7].

金十数据7月1日讯，美国5月份的职位空缺意外上升至去年11月以来的最高水平，裁员人数下降，表明 尽管经济存在不确定性，但劳动力市场保持稳定。美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，就业岗位从4 月份修正后的740万个增至777万个，这超出了经济学家的预期。 美国职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高 ...

Core Insights - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, stated that new data confirms the robustness of the U.S. labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve is still awaiting more information regarding inflation [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

美联储戴利：最新数据显示美国劳动力市场依然坚挺。 ...