金融属性方面，本周美国公布了12月的通胀数据，其中美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，与去年11月持平， 在剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，也与去年11月持平，此两项数据的结果 均低于市场的预期水平，这也导致此前虽然受到12月非农数据影响本已经下降的降息预期在4月份重新 有所上涨，但1月份的降息预期依然处在相对低位。从市场的预计节奏来看，1月无降息基本是板上钉钉 的事实，4月份的降息一方面是受到CPI数据下降的支撑，另一方面则是由于市场认为美联储可能不会 等到美联储主席鲍威尔任期于5月结束后再降息，这导致目前对于4月和6月降息的预期出现了一定分 歧。值得注意的是，若4月份如期出现降息，那么6月降息的几率将值得高度关注，这将是美联储新任领 导人的首次重大决策。 政治属性方面，近期美国和委内瑞拉之间的冲突逐步有所降温，市场已经基本消化前期美国抓捕马杜罗 带来的影响，即便后者目前仍在做出抗争，但或较难改变其原油产品大量出口至美国的现状，后续美国 或进一步对委石油产业做出控制。而近期另一大值得关注的地缘重点事件则是美国与伊朗之间的博弈。 近期伊朗内部出现明显的政治动荡，游行已经持续了将近三周 ...

二、美伊地缘紧张暂缓削弱避险买盘 特朗普暂缓对伊朗军事打击计划，以色列总理劝说推迟行动以预留准备时间，美伊局势阶段性缓和，市 场避险情绪快速降温。1月15日现货黄金小幅下跌至4615美元/盎司，国际原油同步大跌，进一步压制贵 金属避险买盘情绪。不过中东局势仍存不确定性，后续地缘扰动仍可能快速推高金价。 三、美国就业数据向好压制金价表现 1月15日公布美国至1月10日当周初请失业金人数录得19.8万人，低于市场预期的21.5万人，显示美国就 业市场韧性较强，削弱市场对美联储快速降息的押注，推动美债收益率上行，美元走强直接压制以美元 计价的黄金价格。今日晚间美国零售销售数据将成为下一个影响金价走势的关键变量。 据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1035.98元/克，上涨0.04%。 国际黄金价格报4613.4美元/盎司，下跌0.22%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 一、美联储降息预期分歧加剧短期波动 1月15日美联储官员密集表态，古尔斯比提出就业市场稳定应聚焦降低通胀，但保留年内降息预期；博 斯蒂克则强调通胀高企需维持紧缩政策。市场对降息节奏的分歧推动美元短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The majority of December's financial data exceeded market expectations, with various policies having mixed impacts on different sectors [1][4][25] - Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, with short - term precious metal rallies slowing down. The US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery. US stock index futures are expected to be volatile during the earnings season but remain bullish overall. A - share index futures still have upward momentum, while treasury bond futures are generally bearish [2][13][17][21][23] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, iron ore has support at the bottom, steel prices should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the prices of various agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals also show different characteristics [30][32][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Paulson tends to keep interest rates unchanged in the next meeting, may cut rates slightly later this year, and expects inflation to fall to 2% by December. The US initial jobless claims last week were 198,000, lower than expected. Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Short - term precious metal rallies slow down, and it is advisable to beware of correction risks and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 198,000, lower than all expectations. Fed officials have different views on inflation and interest rates. The labor market remains resilient, and the US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery [14][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed's Schmid believes there is no reason to cut rates currently. Goldman Sachs' Q4 net profit increased by 12% year - on - year, and TSMC's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, indicating strong demand in the AI chip industry. During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile but remain bullish overall [18][19][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In December 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP, providing liquidity support to the market. The A - share market is expected to have upward momentum, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - December's financial data exceeded market expectations. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and conducted reverse repurchase operations. The impact on the bond market is mixed but generally bearish. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [25][27][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On January 15, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The downstream daily consumption has been weak, and the supply adjustment has accelerated. The coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether coal mines will have an early holiday before the Spring Festival and the implementation of Indonesia's 2026 tariffs [30] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and BHP will jointly develop 200 million tons of iron ore in the Pilbara region. The iron ore inventory at ports continues to accumulate, and the steel mills' restocking is weak. However, the molten iron is expected to recover moderately, providing support for iron ore prices [31][32] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - As of January 15, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory pattern is acceptable, but the inventory inflection point is approaching, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a volatile mindset and hedge inventory at high prices if the price rebounds [33][34][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB estimates Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season to be 176.12 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year but a 1 - million - ton decrease from the December estimate. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. It is recommended to maintain the view of weak and volatile soybean meal prices and pay attention to South American weather, domestic auctions, and customs policies [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The basis quotes in the cotton market have increased significantly. In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased seasonally month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, with textiles showing stronger resilience and clothing facing greater pressure. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [38][41][43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% month - on - month. The oil market was weak due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and Sino - Canadian talks. It is recommended to wait for new drivers in the palm oil market and pay attention to the official results of Sino - Canadian talks for rapeseed oil. Short - term long positions can be considered at low prices if sentiment stabilizes and the production cut is significant [44] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.33 per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased. Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some metal brands from two South Korean companies. The lead price is driven by strong macro factors, but the demand feedback is negative. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [45][46][48] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some zinc brands from two South Korean companies. The zinc price rose significantly. The direct impact on the zinc fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait and see for spreads, and consider positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets, but the driving force is not obvious [49][52][53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Three departments held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to regulate the market order. Tesla's lithium refinery has been put into operation. The lithium carbonate futures price has a short - term correction. It is recommended to control positions and operate cautiously due to high market sentiment and exchange intervention [54][55][56] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan." Codelco's Ministro Hales copper mine expansion project has obtained environmental approval. Trump has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key minerals. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [57][58][60] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $105.98 per ton. The supply of tin mines is uncertain, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and it is necessary to pay attention to December's import and export data and the recovery of consumption [60][61][62] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 9, the US propane inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][65][66] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 15, the closing price of CEA was 78.50 yuan per ton, up 8.28% from the previous day. The carbon market is expected to be dull and the price to fluctuate widely in the current policy window period [66][67] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The demand is stable, and there may be a seasonal restocking demand before the Spring Festival. The supply load may not be maintained above 80%. It is recommended to adjust with the cost end in the short term and try long positions at low prices in the medium term [68][69][70] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, China's styrene production decreased slightly. The styrene price has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export increases. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks and US pure benzene tariff policies, and generally take a long - at - low approach, with the risk of excessive pure benzene imports [71][72][73] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of January 15, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continued to accumulate. The supply has increased, and the demand has been hit by the cold repair of glass production lines. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and short far - month contracts at high prices [74][75] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - As of January 15, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased month - on - month. The glass price has been weak recently. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range of 900 - 1250 yuan per ton in 2026 and pay attention to potential supply - side changes [76]

1月15日，ATFX：白银属于高波动率品种，上涨时横扫空头，下跌时摧枯拉朽。2026年以来，黄金涨势 稍歇，白银依旧涨势如虹。这导致金银比价急剧下降。 以COMEX黄金和白银昨日收盘价为准，黄金4633.9美元，白银93.18美元，比值49.73，2012年3月以来 首次跌破50大关。 昨日，受美联储降息预期升温和地缘紧张局势影响，白银再度大涨，盘中最高触及93.48美元，刷新历 史纪录。一部分市场激进人士已经在预期，白银将在不久后突破100美元关口。 今日，白银在亚盘急剧回落。截至北京时间12：00，白银从开盘价93.5美元下跌至最低86.23美元，跌穿 昨日最低点86.86美元，创出近两日新低。 金银比价下破50倍，本身是一个强烈的转折信号，叠加白银亚盘时段反常下跌，可能意味着白银的中长 期涨势将迎来休整期。 多数情况下，亚盘时段的行情走势长期指导意义较弱，因为黄金白银的走势主要由欧美盘资金主导。所 以，今日亚盘时段白银的剧烈下跌，还需要欧盘时段和美盘时段行情走势进行确认。如果欧美盘时段白 银没有大幅反弹，则转折意味将更强。 ▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月15日，ATFX：白银属于高波动率 ...

1月15日，昨日周三我们认为，美国非农数据显示就业市场疲软，CPI数据显示通胀环境温和，加强了 市场对美联储年内降息2次的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵，刺激黄金避险买盘，共同推动金价刷新历 史新高，短期技术面也显示黄金多方占据优势，有机会继续冲高，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4600和4570美元，上方压力关注4640美元的突破情况，若向上突破，上方空间可以关注4700美元。 从之后的走势看，周三欧盘盘中，黄金保持高位震荡，金价多次试探亚盘创造的历史高点4640美元遇 阻，美盘开盘后，黄金短线回落，跌至4600美元企稳，反弹4626美元遇阻后，再次回落试探4600美元企 稳，此后金价再度上涨，刷新历史新高至4642美元，遇阻后黄金震荡回落，周四开盘后延续下行，金价 两度试探4580美元企稳，目前交投于4605美元。总体来看，黄金再度冲高，符合我们的整体看涨预期。 1月15日，昨日周三我们认为，美国非农数据显示就业市场疲软，CPI数据显示通胀环境温和，加强了 市场对美联储年内降息2次的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵，刺激黄金避险买盘，共同推动金价刷新历 史新高，短期技术面也显示黄金多方占据优势，有机会继续冲高， ...

昨日周三我们认为，美国非农数据显示就业市场疲软，CPI数据显示通胀环境温和，加强了市场对美联储年内 降息2次的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵，刺激黄金避险买盘，共同推动金价刷新历史新高，短期技术面也显 示黄金多方占据优势，有机会继续冲高，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4600和4570美元，上方压力关注 4640美元的突破情况，若向上突破，上方空间可以关注4700美元。 日线图上，黄金周三再创历史新高后，涨势虽然遇阻，但日内回落有限，走势保持高位震荡。黄金下方支撑， 可以关注日内低点附近4580美元，金价两度回落试探这里企稳，其次前历史高点位置4550美元；黄金上方压 力，可以关注周三创造的历史高点位置4642美元，金价多次试探4640美元附近遇阻，若向上突破，上方空间关 注4700美元整数位置。5日均线与MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ与RSI指标金叉下拐，短期技术面显示黄金多方占 优，不过连续冲高后存在调整需求。 黄金日内参考：市场对美联储降息的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵刺激避险买盘，继续对黄金走势形成支撑。 操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4580美元，其次4550美元，上方压力关注4642美元，若向上突 ...

1月15日：上交易日周三（1月14日）：国际黄金反弹收涨，收复周二跌幅，再度刷新历史高点，维持着 多头动力，暗示后市看涨前景良好，下方仍可依托5日或10日均线支撑进行逢低看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市微幅高开于4588.21美元/盎司，就此即刻作为日内低点，并随后反弹走强，但 日内持续受阻于4640美元一线，并在美盘时段频繁过山车，微幅突破阻力录得日内高点4642.63美元 后，仍表现遇阻，最终再度阻力回撤，收于4626.26美元，相对周二收盘价4586.43美元，日振幅56.2美 元，收涨39.83美元，涨幅0.87%。 展望今日周四（1月15日）：国际黄金亚市开盘，先行延续隔夜尾盘遇阻回撤之力表现走低，但更多的 还是技术调整，虽然昨日零售销售数据及PPI等数据超预期，打压金价，但围绕美联储独立性的政治不 确定性仍挥之不去，再加上地缘政治紧张局势持续提供支撑。再结合此前弱于预期的核心CPI数据，交 易员仍维持对美联储年内两次降息的预期。故此，看涨前景因素仍然存在，一时的回撤，也仍然是再多 的多头看涨机会。 影响上，日内受地缘政治等热点，以及特朗普政府对美联储的攻击，继续促使黄金避险资产走强。但由 于美国 ...

1月15日，昨日黄金市场上演强势突破行情，多头力量主导下价格刷新日线新高，虽尾盘略有回落形成 长上影线，但整体上行趋势未改。这种突破后的震荡整理形态，为今日交易提供了明确的多空博弈线索 与操作方向。回顾昨日盘面走势，黄金早盘以4589点位开盘后，并未直接开启上攻，而是先小幅回踩至 4587.9点位，完成对短期支撑的快速测试。这一波浅幅回调既消化了前一交易日的部分获利盘，也验证 了下方买盘的承接力度，为后续拉升积蓄了充足动能。随后多头势力全面发力，行情进入强势震荡拉升 阶段，价格一路突破前期压制，最终触及4643.4点位的日线新高，创下近期走势新峰值。尾盘时段，由 于新高附近获利了结压力显现，行情进入整理模式，最终收线于4624.9点位，日线以一根实体强劲、上 影线较长的大阳线收官。 从技术形态来看，这根长上影大阳线蕴含着明确的市场信号。阳线实体部分确认了多头的绝对主导地 位，说明日内买盘力量强劲，上行趋势具备坚实基础；而上影线的出现，则反映出价格触及新高后遭遇 一定抛压，空头在高位展开抵抗，属于突破关键阻力后的正常震荡消化现象。结合量能表现来看，拉升 阶段成交量同步放大，印证了增量资金对突破行情的认可，进一步 ...

在创下每盎司4,643美元的历史新高后，国际黄金价格近期出现高位回落。 周四，黄金（XAU/USD）在4,600美元附近震荡整理，市场情绪从此前的单边追涨逐步转向谨慎观望。 本轮回调的直接背景，来自一系列偏强的美国经济数据。最新公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）和零售销售数据均好于市场预期，显示美国内需和价格压力仍 具韧性。同时，失业率小幅回落、薪资增速回升，也在一定程度上削弱了市场对短期内降息的押注。在利率可能维持高位更长时间的预期下，作为非生息资 产的黄金承受了一定压力。 从宏观数据看，美国经济整体表现依然稳健。零售销售在前期短暂回落后重新增长，显示消费动能尚未明显转弱；PPI同比增速维持在较高水平，反映成本 端压力仍存。 虽然核心CPI数据显示通胀放缓趋势延续，但幅度相对温和，使市场对政策转向保持耐心。部分投行已将降息时间预期推后，认为更明确的信号可能出现在 年中以后。 美元走势同样对金价形成掣肘。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数在短暂回落后重新走强，徘徊在99关口上方。美元企稳使以美元计价的黄金对非美元投 资者吸引力略有下降，限制了多头的进一步发力。 避险情绪方面，近期有所降温。部分市场参与者认为，地缘紧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 1,074.23 tons, while gold prices continue to rise, reaching record highs due to lower-than-expected U.S. core inflation data and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of January 14, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 1,074.23 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - The current gold price reached a peak of $4,642.88 per ounce, closing at $4,626.41 per ounce, marking a rise of $39.96 or 0.87% [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is attributed to lower-than-expected U.S. core inflation data, which has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Market participants are divided on the likelihood of two or three rate cuts this year, with current expectations slightly increasing from 52 basis points to 54 basis points [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Concerns over the trust in U.S. assets and the independence of the Federal Reserve, combined with geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, have driven increased safe-haven buying of precious metals [6]. - The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group forecasts gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, while silver is expected to reach $100 per ounce [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, which typically indicates weakening upward momentum; a break below the lower trendline could trigger a bearish reversal [6]. - The daily chart shows the 20-day moving average breaking above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a bullish outlook, although the relative strength index has entered overbought territory [6]. Group 5: Price Levels - Short-term resistance for gold is at approximately $4,650, with the next target being $4,700 if this level is breached [7]. - Initial support is found at the nine-day moving average of $4,520, followed by the lower trendline around $4,470 [7].