Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that strategic cooperation with the United States is preferable to engaging in a trade war [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the European Union's stance on international trade relations, highlighting the importance of collaboration over conflict [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that strategic cooperation with the United States is preferable to engaging in a trade war [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the European Commission's stance on prioritizing collaboration over conflict in trade relations [1] - It suggests a focus on building partnerships that can enhance economic ties rather than resorting to competitive measures [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is overshadowed by other global issues, including the trade war initiated by Trump and the situation in Gaza, leading to a lack of media coverage on the conflict [1] - Trump has indicated that Ukraine could receive more U.S.-made weapons if NATO allies cover the costs, while giving Russia a 50-day ultimatum to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening severe sanctions and up to 100% secondary tariffs if unsuccessful [1][2] - Analysts express skepticism about whether the threat of further sanctions will genuinely compel Putin to negotiate with Ukraine, highlighting the complexities of the situation and the potential for unknown variables [2][3] Group 2 - Ukraine is experiencing internal unrest due to dissatisfaction with the ongoing martial law, lack of elections, and concerns over Zelensky's wartime leadership, which has led to protests against government actions perceived as undermining anti-corruption efforts [4] - The recent government reshuffle in Ukraine has raised concerns about Zelensky consolidating power among loyalists, potentially alarming international supporters and donors [4][5] - The current dynamics suggest that Ukraine is in a critical phase of internal consolidation amid growing external uncertainties, with the West increasingly viewing international support as transactional rather than aimed at promoting democratic reforms [5]

【文/观察者网 柳白】当地时间7月27日，怀着"以拖待变"侥幸心理的欧盟，终于等来了美欧新贸易协 议，但质疑声几乎扑面而来。 据央视新闻消息，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德·朗格表示，美欧新贸易协议严重失衡并损害欧 洲利益，是一项带有偏见的协议。另有多名欧洲政界人士直言，欧盟向特朗普的屈服之路早在4月就开 始了，尽管这份新协议暂时避免了贸易战，但倘若欧盟早点采取强硬立场，跟中国一道反制特朗普关税 威胁，而不是选择妥协，欧盟就不会在谈判中居于劣势，也许能拿到更好的条件。 "欧盟早该配合中国反制" 特朗普4月初公布的"对等关税"一度金融市场陷入恐慌，投资者抛售美国资产，担心经济衰退。随着抛 售加剧，特朗普有所退让，在4月10日关税生效前夕，宣布暂时只对欧盟征收10%的基准关税。 但欧盟也让步了。4月10日，欧盟暂停对美国征收报复性关税，并在"刀架在脖子上"的情况下接受了美 国的谈判提议。欧盟没有像中国和加拿大那样立即采取报复措施，让美国消费者和企业承受损失，而是 因成员国之间的内部分歧选择吞下苦果，希望能在未来获得更好的协议。 7月27日，苏格 兰坦贝利，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩举行会晤。 IC ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has been forced to accept a 15% tariff agreement with the United States, highlighting its regret for not forming a united front with China to counteract U.S. trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - On July 27, U.S. President Trump announced that the EU would increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1]. - The EU accepted a 15% "base" tariff, which includes key sectors like the automotive industry, while steel will be subject to a quota system [2][3]. - The EU's initial plan aimed to reduce a €200 billion trade deficit through increased purchases of liquefied natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, but was undermined by Trump's rapid actions [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Strategic Missteps - The EU's response to Trump's trade aggression began with a strategic misstep on April 10, when it chose to suspend retaliatory tariffs and accept negotiations under pressure [2][4]. - Internal divisions among EU member states weakened its negotiating position, with some countries advocating for a stronger response while others preferred a more cautious approach [3][4]. - The EU's reliance on U.S. security guarantees, particularly among Eastern and Northern member states, contributed to its reluctance to engage in a trade confrontation [4]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The EU's experience in this trade conflict underscores the importance of unity and decisive strategy in the face of trade bullying, as a lack of these elements led to unfavorable outcomes [5]. - Analysts suggest that the EU's failure to act decisively against U.S. tariffs reflects a broader lesson about the risks of not presenting a united front in international trade disputes [5].

当地时间7月27日，美国商务部长卢特尼克在接受采访时表示，美国将不再延长8月1日的加征关税期限。 "所以没有延期，也没有宽限期。8 月 1 日，关税已经确定。它们将开始实施。海关将开始收钱，然后我们就开始了，"卢特尼克说。 他还发文表示 ，美国总统特朗普开启了世界最大经济体之一的大门，欧盟将开放其20万亿美元的市场，并首次完全接受美国的汽车和工业标准。 此外，欧盟还将从美国购买7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美国投资6000亿美元，美国对欧盟输美产品的关税将全部设定为15%。 有官员补充说，特朗普在截止日期后仍然准备进行关税谈判。 相较之下，15%委实算是非常不错的关税税率了，其他国家正饱受高税点摧残，尤其是巴西最惨，"喜提"全品50%（详参：全部产品！最高50%！特朗普 再加税！）。 在过去的几周里，美国与英国、日本、印度尼西亚、菲律宾等多个国家达成了贸易协议。特朗普从本月早些时候开始就一直在发送关税信函。他还计划对 较小国家征收 10-15%关税（详参：事关"输美商品关税"！特朗普最新表态！）。 然而，与印度的谈判仍在进行中。印度和美国谈判代表之间的第五轮谈判于本月结束。据消息人士透露，华盛顿代表团将于下个 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) has passed a €93 billion counter-tariff list against the US, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1][8] - The counter-tariff list includes products like bourbon whiskey and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, targeting key political bases of President Trump [3] - The EU's response is a result of a breakdown in trust with the US, as previous cooperation did not yield the expected benefits [3][6] Group 2 - Germany's shift to a more hardline stance against the US is notable, contrasting its previous moderate position [3] - The EU's strong response reflects a broader geopolitical strategy, aiming to assert its influence in global trade rules [6][8] - The upcoming deadlines for negotiations (August 1 and August 7) could lead to a historic turning point in US-EU trade relations [8] Group 3 - The EU's economic recovery provides it with leverage in negotiations, but risks remain for key industries like automotive and aerospace [6] - The trade dispute signifies a profound change in transatlantic relations, with the EU employing unprecedented measures against the US [6][8] - The EU's approach to China may create new opportunities for cooperation, despite its ongoing reliance on NATO for security [6][4]

更讽刺的是，特朗普还在人工智能峰会上笑容满面地说："我们与中国相处得很好"——这种180度的态 度转变背后，藏着怎样不为人知的博弈？ 能源战场上的数字不会说谎。根据中国海关总署数据，去年6月中国还从美国进口了价值近8亿美元的原 油，而今年同期这个数字变成了刺眼的零。液化天然气的情况更惨，已经连续四个月没有任何一艘美国 LNG船能在中国港口卸货。煤炭贸易更是跌到了令人啼笑皆非的几百美元。这些数据背后，是中国国 务院关税税则委员会2月那纸公告的威力：对美产原油加征10%关税，对煤炭和LNG加征15%。特朗普 政府可能没想到，他们发起的贸易战会以这种方式反噬自身。 华盛顿的七月异常闷热，但比天气更让白宫焦躁的是一组冰冷的数据：中国海关最新统计显示，6月份 中国从美国进口的原油、液化天然气和煤炭三大能源商品基本全部归零。这个"零"字像一记重拳，狠狠 砸在了特朗普政府脸上。 这场博弈中最有意思的，是市场规律对政治霸权的无情嘲弄。当美国试图用制裁手段切断中国能源供应 时，中国转身就找到了更便宜的俄罗斯原油；当美国威胁要加征关税时，中国企业已经完成了供应链调 整。在全球化的能源市场上，政治干预终究敌不过经济规律。 特朗普政 ...

南华早报：知情人士认为，中国与美国周一在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩开始的贸易谈判将使关税休战期再度延长三个月，双方将承诺不彼此征收额外关税，也不会以其他方式升级贸易战。双方将就主要症结（例如美国对中国工业产能过剩的担忧）阐述自己的观点，而非取得具体突破。料中方将就芬太尼关税向美方施压。 https://t.co/CuLhQq7oHc ...

PVC：短期偏弱 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 周五夜盘商品普遍大幅下跌，反内卷情绪减弱，短期情绪面和资金集中平仓影响仍较大，下周 PVC 预 计走势偏弱。PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造， 目前反内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此轮反弹过程中大幅扩张。下半年看，供应端减产驱动不足，PVC 高产量， 高库存的结构难以缓解，因此市场后期仍会做空氯碱利润。此外，宏观方面关注 8 月份贸易战可能超预期 的风险。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期，高产量格局持续。一方面氯碱成本下滑， 另一方面 2025 年烧碱需求支撑尚可，维持较高利润，氯碱产业链以碱补氯，这也加大了 PVC 自身因亏损导 致大规模减产的难度。此外，未来仍有较多产能投产，尤其在 7-8 月将面临新增产能投放，预计投产达到 110 万吨，高产量格局短期难改变。 高库存的压力持续，出口需求也只能阶段性缓解：2025 年 PVC 出口市场竞争压力增大，出口仍会受印 度加征反倾销税和 BIS 认证影响，因此 ...