Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's potential increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% raises trade policy uncertainty [1][8] - The Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby indicates that the courts are playing a larger role in determining tariff levels, which may further exacerbate trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 2: US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement - The US and UK reached a non-legally binding "Economic Prosperity Agreement" (EPD) on May 8, which has raised concerns among international law experts regarding its terminology [3] - The EPD does not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but lowers tariffs on certain industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: US-China Trade Negotiations - A joint statement from the US and China on May 12 outlines mutual commitments to cancel and modify tariffs, with the US agreeing to eliminate 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - China will also suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against US goods [4] Group 4: Impact of Legal Challenges - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority regarding global tariffs, but the appeals court temporarily stayed this ruling, allowing tariffs to remain in effect [7] - The ongoing legal battles between the Trump administration and US federal courts are influencing the progress of international negotiations [5][7] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - Countries like Japan, India, and South Korea are reassessing their negotiation strategies with the US following the suspension of tariffs on China [6] - India's plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth $1.91 billion indicates a shift in its trade stance under Prime Minister Modi [6]

Core Viewpoint - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) has emerged in the financial circles of Wall Street, reflecting President Trump's inconsistent trade policies and potentially leading to increased market volatility [1][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, uncertainty regarding trade policies has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to the re-emergence of tariffs and restrictions [1]. - Trump's trade policies have shown a pattern of unpredictability, with threats of 50% tariffs on the EU followed by extensions of implementation deadlines [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" acronym was coined by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times to describe Trump's tendency to issue high-stakes threats only to back down under market pressure or negotiation [4]. - This pattern has become a market norm, where Trump's tariff threats often lead to stock price declines, but subsequent policy reversals result in rapid market rebounds [4][5]. - Despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade threats, the U.S. stock market recently recorded its best May performance since 1997, indicating that market participants are beginning to seek rebound opportunities following Trump's threats [5]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump's reaction to the "TACO" term has been intense, as he perceives it as an attack on his strength as a negotiator, which he finds unacceptable [4][6]. - A source indicated that Trump cannot tolerate the perception that his tariff adjustments reflect weakness, as he prides himself on being a tough negotiator [5]. - Following a court ruling that limited his authority to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, suggesting that he views "TACO" as a personal challenge [6]. Group 4: Implications for Future Trade Policies - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic and social considerations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the Canadian economy's 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter does not indicate positive developments in the new tariff era, and it is insufficient to compel the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates on June 4 [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The 2.2% GDP growth was primarily driven by pre-tariff effects on exports and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remains weak [1] - Continuous monitoring of second-quarter data is necessary to determine if there is further deterioration in domestic demand [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The analyst expects the Bank of Canada to maintain a "dovish hold" policy but anticipates potential rate cuts in July, October, and December if signs of economic weakness persist [1] - If consumer spending and investment do not improve, combined with trade policy uncertainties, the central bank may need to implement multiple rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth in three years, complicating interest rate outlooks [1] - Australia's retail sales in April fell by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected growth of 0.3%, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [2] - Retail sales in Australia for April reached AUD 37.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3.8%, reflecting a decline in clothing retail due to unseasonably warm weather [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The San Francisco Fed President indicated the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, contingent on ensuring inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) has lowered its consumption expectations for the year but remains hopeful for a combination effect from tax cuts, easing inflation, and lower borrowing costs [2] - Market expectations suggest a 60% probability of a rate cut at the RBA's July meeting, with analysts anticipating three rate cuts within the year, bringing the cash rate to a neutral level of 3.10% [3] Group 3: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the US dollar to 0.6424 following the retail sales data release, with a cumulative decline of over 1% for the week [3] - The New Zealand dollar also dropped 0.3% against the US dollar, maintaining a recent trading range of 0.5847 to 0.6031 [3] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank cut rates to 3.25% but did not signal further easing, providing temporary support for the New Zealand dollar [4]

日本央行行长植田和男：我们意识到企业在价格和工资设定方面的积极行为仍在持续。下调通胀预期反 映出贸易政策不确定性对全球增长的压力，以及成本推动型通胀放缓和近期原油价格大幅下跌的影响。 ...

金十数据5月30日讯，外媒对企业信息披露的分析显示，特朗普的贸易战给企业造成了超过340亿美元的 销售损失和更高的成本，关税的持续不确定性使一些世界上最大的公司的决策陷入瘫痪，这一损失预计 还会上升。在美国、亚洲和欧洲，苹果、福特、保时捷和索尼等公司纷纷下调或大幅下调了利润预期， 绝大多数公司表示，特朗普贸易政策的不稳定性使其无法准确估算成本。这一估值囊括了标普500指数 中的32家公司、欧洲斯托克600指数中的3家公司和日本日经225指数中的21家公司。经济学家说，企业 的损失可能是企业迄今披露的金额的数倍。 特朗普关税给全球大企业制造了340亿美元的损失 ...

金十数据5月29日讯，美联储会议纪要提到，工作人员继续注意到围绕贸易政策和其他经济政策的大量 不确定性，现在认为预测的不确定性相对于过去20年的平均水平有所上升。实际经济活动的风险被认为 倾向于下行，工作人员认为，经济陷入衰退的可能性几乎与基线预测一样大。对2025年通胀预测的大幅 上调被认为是为了使围绕该年通胀预测的风险保持平衡。此后，美联储工作人员继续认为，围绕通胀预 测的风险偏向上行，最近一些通胀预期指标的上升，提高了通胀将比基线预测假设更持久的可能性。 美联储会议纪要：不确定性相对于过去20年的平均水平有所上升 ...

报告强调，企业在评估需求前景时表现出明显谨慎态度，并将重点转向成本削减，这直接反映了特朗普贸易政策带来的不确定性冲击。与此同 时，国会正在辩论的税收立法也让企业处于观望状态，进一步抑制了投资冲动。 剔除波动性较大的运输设备，4月份耐用品订单环比增长0.2%，好于市场持平的预期。 作为衡量企业设备投资的非波动性指标，核心资本货物订单（不包括飞机和军事硬件）上月下降1.3%，创去年10月以来最大跌幅，此前3月份的 数据向上修正为增长0.3%。 由于订单可能被取消，美国政府在计算国内生产总值（GDP）时更侧重于出货量数据，因为出货量反映了实际支付的发生。数据显示，4月份核心 资本货物出货量下降0.1%。 受商用飞机订单锐减拖累，美国4月份耐用品订单超预期下滑，核心资本货物订单（不包括飞机和军事硬件）下降1.3%，创去年10月以来最大跌 幅。在关税和税收政策不确定性的影响下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，美国4月耐用品订单环比初值暴跌6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由9.20%修正为7.50%。 波动性较大的商用飞机订单在4月份暴跌51.5%，此前3月份有所增长。波音公司表示，4月份仅收到8 ...

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 朱迪 王泽辉 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 本次调研时间为5月下旬，走访了广西南宁、防城港、钦州、北海等地，涉及企业包括上游油厂及中游贸易商，主要为了探究当地及全国范围 内油脂油料市场的供需环境，及贸易政策不确定环境下，上中下游的采购、销售及备货节奏。 01 广西油脂油料市场总结 1.2油料市场情况 从本次调研情况来看，未来进口菜籽供应整体偏紧，目前油厂买船积极性差，受贸易关税相关政策影响，工厂担忧未来政策变化，谨 慎采购，少量的几条船均来自加拿大，暂未启动其他国家的菜籽采购。但国内进口颗粒粕库存相对充裕，预计3季度市场菜粕供应宽 松。8、9、10月菜粕将迎来水产旺季，或会有一波库存消化驱动，目前终端提货尚可，叠加4、5月豆粕基差高位，菜粕替代增加， 油厂菜粕库存目前偏低。而考虑到未来菜籽供应趋紧，油厂卖货并不激进，低价有挺价情绪。 巴西大豆目前陆陆续续到港中，但因前期到港衔接不佳及通关限制，油厂开机持续低位，豆粕建库过程缓慢。短期豆粕库存压力不 大，按照目前到货节奏 ...

新华财经布鲁塞尔5月27日电（记者康逸张兆卿）"与美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、美国贸易代表贾 米森·格里尔的通话很愉快。欧盟委员会仍完全致力于通过建设性和集中的努力达成协议。我们将继续 保持联系。"欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇26日与美方通话后在社交 媒体X平台上写道。 谢夫乔维奇的表述与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩日前与美国总统特朗普通话后在X平台上的发文如出一 辙。然而，在这两次"谈得不错"的通话背后，美欧贸易谈判仍然面临重重困难与隐忧。 尽管在冯德莱恩与特朗普通话之后，欧盟争取到美国暂缓征收50%关税的"喘息期"，但欧盟如何在推动 达成互利贸易协议的同时，应对美国提出的重大让步要求，仍存在诸多不确定性。目前尚无迹象表明欧 美就解决贸易争端取得实质谈判进展。 特朗普推迟对欧盟征收50%关税虽令市场短暂振奋，但也再次提醒欧洲政策制定者与投资者，美国的贸 易政策可能随时变化。德国商业银行外汇策略师米夏埃尔·普菲斯特表示，欧盟可能在7月9日前与美国 达成协议，但特朗普的声明清楚表明，这种"喘息"是暂时的。"在一通电话后，根本性问题是否发生了 改变，这值得怀疑。" 一位熟悉谈判情况的行业 ...