日本经济增长可能放缓。 日本经济正在温和复苏。 日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，日本央行行长植田和男表示，贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加；日本经济增长可 能会放缓。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策带来的不确定性显著增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Booking has lowered its full-year revenue forecast due to increased economic uncertainty, despite reporting a strong first-quarter performance that exceeded market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Booking's first-quarter revenue reached $4.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, surpassing market expectations [1]. - The adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $24.81, significantly higher than Wall Street's expectation of $17.45 [1]. - Total travel bookings, including taxes and fees, amounted to $46.7 billion, slightly above the expected $46.5 billion [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company has revised its full-year total bookings and revenue growth expectations to "mid-to-high single digits" at constant exchange rates, down from a previous expectation of "at least 8%" [1]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the online travel sector's performance this quarter to gauge U.S. consumer confidence amid concerns over potential economic recession due to trade policies [1][2]. - Booking's CEO noted a stable level of global leisure travel demand at the beginning of the second quarter, with expected growth in bookings of 4% to 6% [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Following the earnings report, Booking's stock fell 3.2% in after-hours trading, with competitors Airbnb and Expedia also experiencing declines [2]. - The company is less susceptible to domestic macroeconomic uncertainties compared to U.S. peers, as approximately 90% of its revenue comes from international markets [2]. Group 4: Long-term Confidence - Despite warnings about the business being more susceptible to currency fluctuations, the CEO expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the travel industry, citing the company's global presence and strong cash flow [3].

欧洲央行执委奇波洛内：近期贸易政策不确定性的增加可能在第一年内使欧元区企业投资减少1.1%， 并在2025-2026年期间使实际GDP增长率下降约0.2个百分点。 ...

金丰来认为，尽管市场在短期内可能会出现波动，但从长期来看，投资者应关注防御性板块和避险资产。黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格 在近期创下新高，显示出市场对避险需求的增加。此外，金丰来建议投资者关注那些受贸易政策影响较小的行业，如公用事业和医疗保健 等防御性板块。 金丰来总结认为，当前市场的不确定性主要来源于贸易政策和美联储的政策调整。投资者在当前环境下应保持谨慎，关注市场动态，合理 调整投资组合，以应对可能出现的市场波动。 金丰来认为，贸易政策的不确定性对市场产生了显著影响。特别是关税政策的调整，使得市场参与者对经济增长前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了股票市场，还导致美元汇率波动，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。例如，近期亚洲股市在美联储主席鲍威尔警告经济增长放缓 和通胀上升风险后出现波动。市场对美国贸易政策的不确定性保持高度关注，这使得投资者在决策时更加谨慎。 金丰来进一步分析，美联储的政策调整也对市场产生了重要影响。鲍威尔表示，美联储将等待更多经济数据来决定是否调整利率。这种谨 慎态度反映了美联储在应对潜在经济疲软和通胀压力之间的平衡难题。市场分析人士认为，美联储目前处于两难境地，因为关税政策可能 导致通胀上升 ...

｜2025年4月7日星期一｜ NO.1腾讯手游《仙剑奇侠传Online》将停运 4月5日，腾讯宣布旗下手游《仙剑奇侠传Online》将于6月2日停止运营。本作于2017年4月26日正式公 测，至今已运营接近8年。腾讯在公告中表示，游戏已于3月31日停止充值相关功能和注册功能，3月31 日11点前购买过《仙剑奇侠传Online》产品并且账户里有代币留存的用户，可在补偿活动期间进入页 面，根据账号余额领取相关游戏礼包。 点评：腾讯宣布《仙剑奇侠传Online》停运，可能影响投资者对其游戏业务持续性的看法，但补偿措施 或能缓解市场对公司用户流失的担忧。此事件可能对游戏行业板块造成一定压力，促使市场关注游戏公 司产品生命周期管理。 NO.2《微软模拟飞行2024》测试版更新引入"注视点渲染"功能 4月6日消息，开发商Asobo Studio为《微软模拟飞行2024》推出了"Sim Update2"测试版本，并且为VR模 式更新了"注视点渲染"功能。该功能使游戏集中渲染人眼所注视的显示区域，降低外周视野的分辨率， 从而减少GPU的负担、提高帧率水平，此功能需要VR头显自身支持眼动追踪。此外，Asobo Studio还预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on the bond market, highlighting increased uncertainty and its effects on investment decisions and bond yields [3][7][10]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Market Impact - On March 4, the U.S. announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were quickly reversed for most goods two days later, leading to heightened uncertainty in trade policy [3]. - A new Bloomberg Economic Research Index, the Daily Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (TPU), was developed to track this uncertainty, which surged to levels not seen during the peak of trade tensions in Trump's first term [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress investment and affect economic output, contributing to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [7]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yields - From November 2023 to early March 2024, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 16 basis points, with approximately 7 basis points attributed directly to tariff uncertainty [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain interest rates during its March meeting, with core PCE inflation rising to an annualized rate of 4.5% and income growth accelerating by 0.8% month-on-month, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [7]. Group 3: Chinese Bond Market Trends - In March, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.93%, the highest since December of the previous year, before retreating to 1.8% later in the month [10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.36% due to better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, impacting related sectors in the A-share market [10]. Group 4: Dim Sum Bond Market - The Dim Sum bond market has expanded significantly, with outstanding issuance surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan as of March 2025, and 2024 issuance reaching 896 billion yuan, a 120% increase from 2023 [11]. - High-rated bonds now account for 75% of the market, with issuers from the renewable energy and digital economy sectors emerging, such as BYD and SenseTime [11]. - The Bloomberg Offshore RMB Index has seen its market value more than double since the end of 2021, currently standing at 467 billion yuan [11]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The yield spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds has narrowed to -237 basis points, reducing the incentive to chase dollar-denominated assets and alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan [13]. - The credit spread of Dim Sum bonds is 78 basis points higher than that of domestic high-liquidity credit bonds, with a low default rate of 0.15% [13].

美国股市周五大幅下跌，投资者对贸易政策前景的不确定性加剧，以及通胀前景的进一步恶化，共同压垮市场情绪。美股三大股指全线走低，科技股首当 其冲，恐慌指数VIX飙升，反映出市场的极度紧张与不安。 道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌715.80点，跌幅1.69%，报41,583.90点；标普500指数下挫1.97%，报5,580.94点，创下六周内第五周下跌；纳斯达克综 合指数更是暴跌2.7%，报17,322.99点。以科技股为主的纳指受打击最为严重，主要受到大型科技公司股价集体回落的影响。 过去数周，通胀回升和政策不确定性仍持续困扰市场。美联储在3月议息会议上维持利率不变，但强调对通胀的警惕态度，让市场对年内降息的时间点产 生疑问。与此同时，白宫的贸易政策转向保护主义，使得企业盈利面临更多挑战。 周五公布的多项关键经济数据也加剧了市场的紧张情绪。密歇根大学3月消费者信心终值显示，美国民众对长期通胀的预期升至1993年以来的最高水 平。这一变化表明，尽管美联储在过去一年持续加息，通胀预期仍未完全得到控制。 此外，德国DAX指数收于22461.52点，下跌0.96%， 法国CAC40指数收于7916.08点，下跌0.93%。 ...