美国国债周三走高，受美国早间发布的弱于预期的11月ADP私营部门就业数据推动。尽管随后遭遇阻 力，但收盘仍接近日间最佳水平。市场对美联储下周降息的预期依然完好，消化的12月10日美联储政策 会议降息25个基点的可能性约为90%。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，收益率全线下跌2-3个基点。中期国债领涨美债，5s30s利差扩大1个基点， 2s5s30s利差收窄1.5个基点。 ADP数据公布后几分钟内，收益率触及盘中低点，该数据使得合约押注的到明年年中美联储政策利率下 降几个基点，而预期的中性利率朝着3%小幅走低。 在国债期权方面，值得注意的资金流动包括对押注30年期国债收益率到下周五升至约4.8%的期权的大 笔买入。 截至纽约时间下午3：37，美国2年期国债收益率报3.4835%； 美国5年期国债收益率报3.6225%； 美国10年期国债收益率报4.0575%； 美国30年期国债收益率报4.7268%； 美国2年和10年国债收益率差报57.198个基点； 美国5年和30年国债收益率差报110.263个基点。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 美国国债周三走高，受美国早间发布的弱于预期的11月ADP ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in both the US dollar and US Treasury yields, driven by an unexpected drop in ADP employment numbers for November, reinforcing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.4%, marking its second consecutive day of decline and reaching its lowest point since October 30 [2] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 in private sector employment for November, the largest drop since March 2023 and the second-largest since early 2020, with a trend of declining employment numbers observed over the past months [2] Group 2 - The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 3 basis points to 4.06%, while US stocks saw a slight increase in the afternoon [2] - The British pound led gains among G-10 currencies, rising about 1.1% to 1.3353, marking the largest increase since May [4] - The euro/GBP pair fell by 0.7% to 0.8737, representing the largest decline since August [7]

道指上涨425点，涨幅扩大至0.9%，美国ADP私人部门就业数据（小非农）欠佳，激发投资者对美联储 的降息预期。标普500指数 目前涨0.39%，纳指涨0.25%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is hovering near record levels amid mixed reactions to profit reports from various companies, including Macy's and Marvell Technologies [1] Company Summaries - Macy's reported its earnings, contributing to the mixed market reactions [1] - Marvell Technologies also released its profit report, which influenced investor sentiment [1]

道指上涨425点，涨幅扩大至0.9%，美国ADP私人部门就业数据（小非农）欠佳，激发投资者对美联储 的降息预期。 标普500指数 目前涨0.39%，纳指涨0.25%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December 2024, alongside a backdrop of a weakening US dollar and strengthening domestic economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - The RMB to USD central parity rate was raised by 40 basis points to 7.0754, marking the highest level since October 14, 2024 [1]. - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0661, appreciating by 51 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - Offshore RMB rose to 7.0585, reaching a new high since October 9, 2024, with an increase of 84 points [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Experts attribute the RMB's appreciation to two main factors: the strong performance of the domestic economy and the recent decline in the US dollar index [2][3]. - The RMB's strength against the dollar has also led to an increase in the CFETS index, indicating a broader appreciation against a basket of currencies [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the RMB has room for appreciation, caution is advised against betting on a one-sided trend due to potential volatility [4][5]. - The RMB's long-term trend is expected to be upward, with predictions that it may break below 7 against the dollar in the coming year [4]. - The strengthening RMB is anticipated to attract more foreign capital into the domestic market, enhancing the appeal of RMB-denominated assets [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing producers will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. After the end of the peak oil demand season, EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventories increased slightly. US crude oil production is near a record high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term, the US - Venezuela military stand - off has escalated, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was attacked. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations rising, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The end of the peak oil demand season, a decline in the US November ISM manufacturing index, and continuous production increases by OPEC+ and increased exports from the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in global floating crude oil storage. The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. However, due to the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and the rising expectations of a Fed interest - rate cut, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, fell 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 444.6 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 452.8 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 249 to 31,517 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and has raised its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC has adjusted the Q3 2026 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecasts for global crude oil supply and demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026 [5] 3.4 Inventory and Supply Data - As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [6] 3.5 Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The single - week supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.41% month - on - month [7][8]

沪铜早间小幅低开，日内震荡走强，收盘上涨0.13%。最近宏观氛围尚好，但铜价刷新高位过后需求转 弱，期价继续上行略显乏力，市场需要看到更多利多信号。 近期市场对于美联储12月是否降息的押注出现了较大变化，当前投资者预计后续货币政策整体偏鸽，市 场风险偏好整体偏暖，为铜价高位运行提供温床。 （文华综合） 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，近期宏观降息预期升温，基本面CSPT共识消息强化未来精铜转紧预 期，短期宏微观在预期层面有合力。但现实尚需兑现，铜价偏强边际或放缓，未来关注政策路径，以及 非美能否兑现去库。 矿紧局面困扰铜市已久，最近隐隐有向冶炼端传导的迹象，且国内冶炼厂表态明年将减产应对，供应端 担忧再度提振铜价走势。截至周初机构统计的数据显示，国内精铜社会库存仍在进一步回落，不过最近 铜价整体回归高位区间，下游采购需求受到一定的抑制，现货升水状态更多是受市场货源有限影响。最 近精铜杆企业成交较为平淡，新增订单显著减少。与此同时，最近精废价差有所增加，但废铜需求同样 受限，整体市场活跃度一般。 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - As of the close on December 3rd, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Pulp rose over 3%, Shanghai tin rose over 2%, palladium and polysilicon rose nearly 2%, and double - offset paper and styrene rose over 1%. In terms of declines, lithium carbonate, eggs, and coking coal fell over 2%, while glass, caustic soda, soda ash, ethylene glycol, and alumina fell over 1%. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 3rd, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Pulp, Shanghai tin, palladium, polysilicon, double - offset paper, and styrene had gains, while lithium carbonate, eggs, coking coal, glass, caustic soda, soda ash, ethylene glycol, and alumina had losses. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [4][5] 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing strength during the day. After a mudslide accident at an Indonesian copper mine, it plans to restart large - scale production in stages from the second quarter of 2026. Copper production in China is expected to increase in December. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates narrowly around $42 per dry ton. After the peak season, the apparent demand for copper decreased month - on - month, but downstream power grids and energy storage still provided rigid support. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully reflected in the disk, and the subsequent upward momentum is weak, but the domestic industry's production reduction intention promotes a tight balance expectation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation of long - term processing fees [7] 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and moved higher but declined during the day. In November, the domestic monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. The capacity utilization rate in December is expected to remain high, but there may be a seasonal reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction. The production of downstream intermediate products continued to increase in November, but the growth rate slowed down. The inventory in November increased slightly. The decline in the disk is mainly due to the expected increase in supply, but the strong downstream demand provides certain resistance to the decline [8][9] 3.2.3. Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. Eight additional voluntary - cut producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, and the overall oil inventory has increased slightly. The U.S. crude oil production is at a historically high level, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased significantly. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined due to the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, but it is difficult to reach an agreement in the near future. The U.S. and Venezuela's military confrontation has intensified, causing concerns about supply disruptions. The crude oil market is still in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10] 3.2.4. Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate rebounded last week. The expected asphalt production in December decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate mostly declined. The national asphalt shipment increased, and the refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. The asphalt start - up rate will increase slightly this week. The demand will weaken further in the future, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12] 3.2.5. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of拉丝, decreased. The PP enterprise start - up rate increased, and the production ratio of the standard product 拉丝 increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space of PP is expected to be limited in the near future [13][14] 3.2.6. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate decreased slightly. The downstream start - up rate of PE decreased, and the orders of agricultural film decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline. The downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space of plastics is expected to be limited in the near future [15] 3.2.7. PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region increased. The PVC start - up rate continued to increase. The downstream start - up rate was basically stable. Concerns about PVC exports to India have been alleviated, but the export order signing decreased last week. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. New production capacity has been put into operation. The upward space of PVC is limited in the near future [16][17] 3.2.8. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and moved low, closing up after intraday fluctuations. The spot price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged, and the price of Mongolian coal increased slightly. The number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles gradually recovered after the holiday, and the domestic mine production increased. The coking enterprises are in serious losses, but the downstream steel mills have rigid demand. The coking coal is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the market has support. Attention should be paid to domestic key meetings [18] 3.2.9. Urea - Urea opened high and moved higher, showing strength during the day. The futures market has rebounded for several days, and the spot trading volume has increased. Some factories have stopped selling. The gas - based devices have started to limit production. The current daily output remains between 190,000 and 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is mainly for low - price purchases. The compound fertilizer factories' start - up rate is increasing, and the winter storage provides demand support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and show certain resistance to decline. The inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly [19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current silver price trend shows dual - wheel drive characteristics, with the core being the increased instability of the credit currency system and the indication by the gold - silver ratio that the global economy is moving towards re - inflation [1]. - The fundamental aspect of silver is generally strong, but its strength is mainly based on investment and allocation needs rather than consumption - based demand [1]. - New industrial demands, especially the explosive growth of photovoltaic demand for silver, form the base of silver demand, while financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand for silver [1]. - The gradual repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of each silver bull market, and it also measures market risk preference this year [2]. - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage, but there are still many factors supporting the continued strengthening of silver prices, and the strong price state will last for a long time [2]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Core drivers, sustainability, and fundamental changes of silver price increase - The core drivers are the instability of the credit currency system and the indication of re - inflation by the gold - silver ratio. The fundamental aspect of silver is strong, and the strength comes from investment and allocation needs [1]. 2. Roles of new industrial and financial factors in silver demand - Photovoltaic demand has increased from less than 5% to 20% in the past five years, forming the base of silver demand. Financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand [1]. 3. Nature of the gold - silver ratio repair - The repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of the silver bull market and measures market risk preference this year. When market risk aversion eases, the gold - silver ratio decreases, often leading to an independent silver market [2]. 4. Stage of the silver bull market - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage in terms of time, but there are many factors supporting the continued rise of silver prices, and the strong price will last for a long time [2].