Group 1 - Canada has reached a significant oil trade agreement with China, with imports hitting a historical peak of 7.3 million barrels in March 2023, marking a 90% reduction in U.S. oil imports due to trade tensions [3][5] - The diversification of energy imports is crucial for China to ensure energy security and mitigate trade risks, while Canada benefits from expanding its overseas market and boosting economic gains through increased oil exports [3][5] - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, has adopted a hardline stance against China, imposing high tariffs on various Chinese products, which disrupts normal international trade and harms both Canadian and Chinese businesses [5][9] Group 2 - Canada has also taken a strong position against the U.S., maintaining retaliatory tariffs in response to unfavorable trade policies, which has negatively impacted Canadian industries [8][9] - The Canadian economy is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with 75% of exports directed there; continued deterioration in U.S.-Canada trade relations could lead to a projected 18% drop in GDP within six months [9] - The trade relationship with China is vital, as the trade volume exceeded $100 billion in 2023; poor policies towards China could result in significant losses for Canadian industries, as evidenced by tariffs on Canadian canola oil and peas [9]

昨晚的文章很多读者留言问我，要是我手里有权力，会不会也会给自己家人谋私利？ 说明监管潜意识里觉得，你吃了公家饭，你的女儿在惹麻烦，那你就有义务来解决这个麻烦。为了不影 响老丈人的工作，我们夫妻之后就没有再出头当业主代表了。但权力和义务是对应的，日后我们夫妻要 是有事需要老丈人帮忙，他该怎么办呢？ 总不能劝女儿的时候是党员干部，要顾全大局，女儿来找了就大公无私，两袖清风吧。他们让老丈人以 体制内身份干预女儿行为，这么做就已经主动模糊了公和私的界限。 所以咯，你们再去看我文章开头的话，是不是逻辑能就自洽了。当然这只是我个人的价值观，我手上没 有半点权力，我北漂20年了还在积分排队等落户，等我下辈子有机会当官再说。 …… 今天最大的新闻是媒体报道美国向中方传递信息，意思是希望谈起来，中方回应正在评估。 这个口径已经比前几天有所松动了，前几天记者问过来中方都是直接否认，没有接触没有谈，现在已经 承认美方有谈的意思，中方也在评估。 这意味着贸易战有转机了吗？我没那么乐观，目前连前期报价试探都不算，双方连是否正式坐下来谈都 没想好。 呵，问这个问题的估计看我时间不久，对我的为人不了解，老读者不问也知道答案。这还用讲吗，只 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to record a second consecutive week of gains, benefiting from eased concerns over the global trade war, recovering above the 100 mark for the first time since April 16 [1] - Spot gold has recorded a second consecutive week of declines, trading at $3344 per ounce due to reduced safe-haven demand and profit-taking ahead of the Labor Day holiday [1] Currency Performance - Non-USD currencies such as the euro and Australian dollar have seen gains against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive month due to the dollar's decline [3] Oil Market - International oil prices have dropped significantly, with Brent crude oil down approximately 18% for April, influenced by the US-led trade war impacting economic growth and energy demand [6] - Saudi Arabia has expressed reluctance to further cut supply to support oil prices, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices, although a subsequent threat from Trump regarding sanctions on Iranian oil buyers caused a rebound [6] Stock Market - The S&P 500 index has achieved its best eight-day performance in over three years, driven by strong earnings from tech companies like Microsoft and Meta, alleviating fears over tariff impacts [10] - Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.17% in April, marking its third consecutive monthly decline, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.85% [10] Investment Bank Insights - Deutsche Bank noted that despite market recovery, US assets still face resistance from foreign buyers [13] - Morgan Stanley highlighted uncertainty in tariff policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to reduced foreign investment in the US [13] - Barclays recommended investors to re-establish long positions in five-year US Treasuries [13] Economic Data - The US economy showed signs of fatigue, with consumer spending growth at a two-year low and a surprising contraction in GDP for Q1 2025 [16][17] - Non-farm payroll data for April showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [17][18] Trade Developments - Trump signed an executive order exempting imported cars and parts from steel and aluminum tariffs, aiming to alleviate pressure on the US auto industry [19] - Ongoing trade negotiations with Japan have yet to reach consensus, with Japan opposing US proposals on tariffs [19][20] Ukraine and Mineral Agreement - The US and Ukraine have signed a mineral agreement to establish a reconstruction investment fund, emphasizing joint energy development without addressing Ukraine's debt issues [21][22] Oil Sanctions on Iran - The US has intensified sanctions on Iranian oil, warning countries and individuals to cease purchases or face secondary sanctions [23] Saudi Oil Supply Strategy - Saudi Arabia has indicated a shift in strategy, no longer willing to cut oil supply to support prices, potentially increasing production to gain market share [24] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk is gradually stepping back from his role in the White House, while Tesla's board remains confident in his leadership despite stock price declines [25] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate but lowered GDP growth forecasts due to global trade uncertainties [26][27] Gold Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached its highest level since 2016, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs [28]

雪佛龙首席财务官Eimear Bonner表示："油价已经发生了变化。从供需角度来看，市场似乎正在走软。" 随着布伦特原油价格今年暴跌17%，大型石油公司发现维持股票回购计划越来越困难。特朗普的关税将 减缓原油需求增长，并推高钢铁及其他油气生产所需材料的成本。与此同时，欧佩克及其盟友上个月宣 布，计划在今年晚些时候增加石油供应，增幅超过市场预期。 智通财经APP获悉，雪佛龙(CVX.US)第一季度调整后每股收益为2.18美元，高于分析师平均预期的每股 2.10美元。由于公司削减了炼油厂的支出，资本支出低于上年同期。 与此同时，雪佛龙的债务水平依然健康。第一季度末，雪佛龙的净债务比率从上一季度的10.4%跃升至 14.4%，但远低于该公司20%至25%的目标范围。 在油价暴跌后，雪佛龙将减少本季度的股票回购，这表明美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战正在损害他 承诺帮助的美国石油行业。 雪佛龙周五表示，第二季度将回购约27.5亿美元的股票，比今年前三个月回购的股票减少约30%。 截至发稿，雪佛龙盘前跌近2%。 雪佛龙第二季度的回购规模在25亿美元至30亿美元之间，如果今年剩余时间维持这一规模，仍符合其 100亿美元至 ...

Group 1 - The trade war is significantly impacting the U.S. economy, with major commodity exports like soybeans and pork experiencing drastic reductions, as evidenced by a 50% drop in soybean net sales and a 72% decline in pork net sales during the week of April 11-17 [1] - The National Retail Federation predicts that if tariffs continue to rise, U.S. imports could decrease by at least 20% in the second half of the year, leading to potential shortages and price surges in various goods [1] - Retailers are already responding to the situation, with some companies raising prices or issuing warnings about price increases, such as a 30% hike in prices for children's products like car seats and strollers [1] Group 2 - The U.S. perception of having leverage in the economic conflict with China may be overestimated, as China has been preparing for potential trade actions since 2018 and remains calm amid the tensions [3][4] - The trade war is characterized as a significant miscalculation by the Trump administration, which has underestimated China's resilience and strategic planning [4] - Japan is positioning itself to increase imports of U.S. soybeans and corn, potentially taking on the role of a buyer for U.S. agricultural products that China is rejecting [7][9] Group 3 - Japan is actively negotiating with the U.S. to address tariff issues, with proposals including relaxing automobile safety standards and expanding zero-tariff import quotas for rice, while also considering increasing imports of U.S. corn and soybeans [7] - The Japanese government is looking to create a dedicated quota of approximately 70,000 tons for U.S. rice to respond to U.S. demands regarding high import tariffs on agricultural products [7] - Despite Japan's willingness to assist the U.S. by increasing imports, there are concerns among Japanese citizens that such actions could negatively impact the domestic agricultural market, indicating a potential disconnect between government policy and public sentiment [10]

Group 1 - The retail sales value in Hong Kong for March is estimated at HKD 30.1 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, although this decline is slightly narrowing [1] - The chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association anticipates that after the second quarter, there may be a chance for sales to stabilize, with some months potentially recording slight increases [1] - Factors affecting April's retail performance include a low base from the previous year, increased outbound travel during the Easter holiday, and the impact of the global trade war on consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of surveyed retailers expect an increase in sales, particularly in cosmetics, jewelry, and personal care, while 10% anticipate stable sales mainly in supermarkets and convenience stores [1] - A significant 60% of retailers expect a decline in sales, particularly in clothing, electronics, department stores, food, and furniture, with declines ranging from single to low double digits [1] - For May, the expected performance during the Labor Day holiday is anticipated to be better than regular weekends but not as strong as the previous year, with one-third of retailers expecting increases mainly in cosmetics and health foods [1] Group 3 - The chairman highlights two major economic factors impacting Hong Kong retail: concerns over the prolonged trade war affecting the stock market and economy, which could weaken consumer purchasing power [1] - The optimization of the outbound tax refund policy in mainland China is expected to increase the burden on Hong Kong's retail sector, potentially attracting more consumers from the mainland [2] - Retailers in Hong Kong are urged to transform, innovate new products, enhance services, and create new shopping experiences to adapt to the changing market conditions [2]

金十数据5月2日讯，荷兰国际集团经济学家Bert Colijn写道，欧元区通胀未来不太可能大幅下降，因为 经济的潜在弹性抵消了贸易关税的抑制作用。周五公布的数据显示，欧元区4月份物价同比上涨2.2%， 较前一个月保持稳定。Colijn说，贸易动荡和随之而来的能源价格下跌使通货膨胀率接近欧洲央行2%的 目标。但投资者不应指望未来几个月通胀会大幅下降。他表示："即使贸易战最初抑制了通胀压力，但 在劳动力市场强劲、工资增长高的情况下，增长良好的欧元区经济可能会在未来几个月让通胀保持在一 定程度上的高位。" 弹性经济支撑欧元区通胀 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariff Changes - The cancellation of the de minimis tax exemption for low-value packages from China has resulted in tariffs as high as 145%, leading many retailers to halt shipments to the U.S. market [1][3][5] - Retailers are increasing prices to cope with the new tariffs, which may exacerbate inflationary pressures on U.S. consumers already facing high living costs [1][4][5] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is now close to 23%, the highest in over a century, significantly impacting consumer and business confidence [4][5] Group 2: Retailer Responses - Major retailers, including Amazon, have reported that the new tariffs will have a significant negative impact on their earnings, with Amazon's profit guidance falling short of analyst expectations by as much as 27% [2][9][10] - Smaller retailers are withdrawing from the U.S. market due to the prohibitive costs associated with the new tariffs, which are expected to lead to price increases for essential goods [3][7] - Companies like Space NK and Understance have already suspended U.S. shipments to avoid unexpected costs due to the new tariff regime [3][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the combination of high tariffs and ongoing inflation could lead to a significant downturn in consumer demand, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession [5][6] - The impact of tariffs is expected to ripple through various sectors, including e-commerce and advertising, as companies like Snap Inc. have indicated that they are facing macroeconomic headwinds due to these changes [6][9] - The overall economic environment is becoming increasingly challenging for retailers reliant on Chinese imports, with many predicting a slowdown in global economic growth [5][6]

科技巨头，股价下挫！ 周四美股盘后，苹果公司股价大跌近4%，进入夜盘时段跌幅仍超3%（截至北京时间周五下午1点40分）。稍早之 前，苹果公布了2025财年第二财季（截至3月29日）的财报，虽然当季的营收及净利润双双超出市场预期，但该公司 警告称，关税将增加第三财季的成本约9亿美元。这表明"贸易战"正在对这家科技巨头造成越来越大的损失。 此前，苹果还面临另外一则利空消息。美国一名联邦法官当地时间4月30日裁定，苹果公司违反了此前的一项法院命 令，必须进行整改以更好地促进市场竞争。该法官要求苹果开放应用商店，允许用户采用外部支付方式。有分析 称，如果苹果最终败诉，其应用商店每年数百亿美元的收入将面临重创。 来看详细报道！ 苹果警告：关税将增加成本 当地时间周四，美股收盘后，苹果公司披露了2025财年第二财季（截至3月29日）业绩。数据显示，苹果公司第二财 季总净营收为953.59亿美元，与去年同期的907.53亿美元相比增长5%，市场预期为943亿美元；净利润为247.80亿美 元，与去年同期的236.36亿美元相比增长4.84%，市场预期为242.6亿美元。 苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克表示，美国拟对外国进口产品加 ...

Group 1 - The trade war between the US and China has escalated, with the US imposing tariffs as high as 245% on Chinese goods and China retaliating with 125% tariffs, posing a significant challenge to global economic stability and prosperity [3][4] - China, with its large domestic market of over a billion people, is better positioned to absorb the pressures from tariffs compared to the US [3] - The essence of trade is based on comparative advantages and mutual exchange, while tariffs distort market signals and hinder resource allocation efficiency [3][5] Group 2 - The trade war has had a substantial negative impact on the US economy, increasing import costs for American businesses and leading to higher consumer prices, which in turn diminishes purchasing power [4] - US exporters reliant on the Chinese market, particularly in agriculture, automotive, and technology sectors, have faced severe repercussions from retaliatory tariffs, resulting in reduced exports and potential layoffs [4][5] - The uncertainty stemming from the trade war has led to a reduction in investment plans among global companies, threatening long-term economic growth in the US [5] Group 3 - The trade conflict has caused widespread negative spillover effects on the global economy, disrupting supply chains and prompting multinational companies to reassess their production strategies, which increases costs and reduces efficiency [5][6] - The trade war has not resolved underlying structural issues such as intellectual property protection and forced technology transfers, but rather intensified distrust between nations, complicating dialogue and cooperation [6][7] - The politicization of trade issues may extend tensions into technology, investment, and cultural exchanges, posing new challenges to global peace and development [6][7]