Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a proactive approach in economic management, focusing on domestic demand expansion and self-sufficiency in response to external uncertainties [1][8] - The Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of strengthening bottom-line thinking and preparing contingency plans to ensure economic stability, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][8] - The report indicates that expanding internal demand is crucial for countering external shocks and low domestic inflation, with future policies expected to revolve around this central theme [1][8] Group 2 - Domestic economic data for Q1 shows positive signs, with industrial production and domestic consumption showing relative strength, although Q2 may face volatility due to external factors [2][16] - The report notes a potential easing of the "tariff war" between the US and China, which could positively impact market sentiment, but warns that formal trade negotiations have not yet commenced, leaving external trade risks high [2][17] - The report suggests that the capital market may benefit from strong signals of domestic demand expansion, with sectors such as consumer goods, real estate, and technology being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [3][18] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors that may benefit from the expansion of domestic demand, including consumer electronics, automotive, and healthcare, particularly in light of upcoming holidays that may boost spending [3][18] - It also recommends a cautious approach to investment in defensive assets and dividend-paying stocks to mitigate ongoing external risks [3][18] - The focus on technology and self-sufficiency is underscored, with attention drawn to domestic alternatives in critical areas such as semiconductors and emerging industries like robotics and healthcare [5][18]

如今的特朗普正在为自己的关税失败找退路，因此特朗普突然调转枪口，猛烈批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并要求鲍威尔赶紧辞职。而为了推卸 责任，特朗普还将关税战这口大黑锅，提前扣在了鲍威尔的头上。 在特朗普看来，如果关税战失败，那便可以将一切的责任都推给美联储，而如果关税战胜利，那自己依旧是民众眼中的"救世主"。 前言 特朗普为什么要说谎？是因为美国失算了、失控了、失血过多了，但就是不承认"交易的艺术"失败了！ 最近，特朗普不断释放"和中国正在谈"甚至将"达成协议"的假消息，却接连被我国外交部、商务部、驻美大使馆及时辟谣。 因为中方无数次地重申谈判的前提是平等、尊重、互惠，美国一天不彻底取消所有对华滥加的单边关税，那就一切免谈！ 而如今的特朗普又失算了，一直与他作对的美联储主席鲍威尔居然接受了中方的提议，不仅站到了这一届美国政府的对立面，并且还有189 个国家的代表见证了这一幕。 从目前的情况下来看，如今特朗普政府早已陷入了四面楚歌的地步，而在本轮的"中美大战"中，最大的输家也已经浮出了水面。 东盟站队中国 在特朗普挥动"关税大棒"后，东盟拒绝妥协公开站队中国，这无异于是当着全世界面前打了特朗普的脸。 要知道，在关税战刚开 ...

据中国驻韩国大使馆网站消息，4月25日，韩国NEWS1通讯社发布韩国知名国际关系问题专家、全球战略合作研究院院长黄载皓教授对戴兵大使的专访。采 访全文如下： 中方反复强调，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢。关税战、贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路，脱钩断链只会孤立自己。对于关税战，我们不愿打，但也 不怕打。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。 我注意到韩美24日举行了"2+2"磋商，韩国国内许多观点认为韩应审慎应对。各国国情不同，中方尊重各方通过平等磋商解决与美方的经贸分歧。同时，中 方坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价同美达成所谓交易。各方都应站在公平正义的一边，对美错误行为，国际社会不能听之任之，否则所有国家都会 沦为受害者。 二、您如何评价韩中经贸关系？近年不少韩企撤离中国市场，一些韩国舆论也对中国技术进步和产业升级感到担心，您怎么看这个问题？未来双方可在哪些 领域加强合作？ 经贸合作一直是中韩关系的"压舱石"。30多年来，双方发挥各自优势，不断深化务实合作，实现互利共赢，并推动两国产供链深度互嵌，已形成你中有我、 我中 ...

本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 28 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者： 金海东 从业资格号: F03088653 交易咨询从业资格号：Z0016875 原油盘面仍然偏弱,注意假期内时间节点 天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 摘要: 原油中期三大驱动:供需、宏观、地缘目前均未看到反转,仍指 向下方,偏空看待。短期市场经过海外风险偏好的改善。原油随风险 资产有一定上行修复,但对关税战的判断仍是短期中美不会有缓和出 现。本周美国一系列经济数据公布将逐步反应关税影响,如数据走弱, 宏观衰退逻辑或重新回归。此外在哈萨克斯坦对原油产量的表态减弱 了补偿减产协议的最终执行效果。供应压力或进一步提前,原油市场 中长期过剩格局依然存在。 关键时间节点上,五一假期中除了美国一系列经济数据公布,5 月 3 日美伊的第四轮谈判,5 月 5 日 OPEC+会议也可能从供应端形成 新的驱动。目前看伊朗有达成协议的意愿, OPEC+也 ...

行业板块 和题材表现上， 银行股新高，电力冲高回落，消费、地产 等权重板块 领跌 拖累指 数表现，其中 银行股强势 ， 工商银行、建设银行、江苏银行、成都 银行 等创历史新高，显 示资金避险情绪升温，高股息策略受青睐。电力板块 则 冲高回落 ， 华银电力（ 3连板）、 华电辽能（2连板）涨停，但西昌电力炸板回落， 说明电力板块开始分化， 板块持续性存疑。 二、 4 月末业绩线过渡，预计 5 月科技成长为主回归 一、 行情复盘：指数缩量调整，银行股逆势新高，题材轮动乏力 今天 大盘缩 量震荡，三大指数全天弱势震荡，沪指跌 0.2% ， 深成指跌 0.62%，创业板指 跌0.65%，市场成交额1.06万亿（较前一日缩量572亿），显示 节前整体 资金观望情绪浓 厚。 同时由于财报季尾声，更多个股暴雷甚至 ST出现，近4000家 个股 下 跌，近百股跌超 9%， 同时涨停和跌停都达到 40家， 市场亏钱效应明显，短线情绪低迷。 会议刺激政策没超预期， 消费、地产 板块 重挫 ， 食品饮料、零售（有友食品、贝因美、国 光连锁跌停） 等 全线调整 （除了少部分业绩优秀的个股，比如珀莱雅 2连板） ；房地产受 政策预期降 ...

能源化工 乙二醇日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 乙二醇近期供需矛盾不大，库存回升压制反弹高度 一、日度市场总结 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 上周五，乙二醇华东现货价格4205元/吨，较前一日下跌60元 /吨。主力合约收盘 4179 元/吨，较前一交易下跌 1.67%。基差为 41 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓 解。WTI原油主力收63.17美元/桶，布油收65.83美元/桶。供给端， 内蒙古中化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23 日附近停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。 新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙 特一套70万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个 月左右。上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月 底重启，现推迟至年底，陕西榆林化学有两条线计划4月份检修。 乐天美国70万吨产能计划4月份检修，马 ...

能源化工 聚酯日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 成本端支撑走强带动聚酯原料偏强运行，关注需求端边际变化 1. PX & PTA 上周五，PX 主力合约 PX2509 收 6230 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 1.04%，基差为-297 元/吨。PTA 主力合约 PTA2509 收 4400 元/吨，较前 一交易日上涨 0.69%,基差为 80 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓解。 WTI 原油主力收 63.17 美元/桶，布油收 65.83 美元/桶。供应端，PX：中 海油惠州 150 万吨 3 月 29 日检修 50 天左右，扬子石化重整检修至 5 月 上旬，PX 有降负预期，天津石化 PX 计划 6-7 月份检修，海南炼化计划 4- 5 月检修，浙石化 250 万吨装置已重启，盛虹炼化 400 万吨原计划 4 月检 修，目前推迟至 5 月。PX 国内装置开工率为 73.2%，亚洲开工率为 68.6%。 PTA：台化兴业 150 万吨计划 5 月 6 日检修，逸盛大连 225 万吨计划 4 月 26 日检修 6 周，另 375 万吨 4 月 2 ...

Core Insights - The current trade war is more intense than in 2018, but market risk appetite is higher due to improved domestic manufacturing capabilities, the resolution of real estate bubbles, the systemic collapse of the traditional international order led by the US, and government efforts to stabilize the stock market [1][8][10][13]. Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting in April made several important deployments, but overall expectations were not met. The government retains significant policy space to address future uncertainties due to the lack of immediate economic pressures [1][16][17]. Market Sentiment - The stock market should not be viewed pessimistically; there is a structural focus on two ends: stable dividend and ROE stocks as natural hedges in uncertain environments, and opportunities in industries related to self-sufficiency and supply chain security [2][18]. Government Policy - The government is actively maintaining stock market stability, with the central bank indicating support for stock index funds and state-owned enterprises engaging in buybacks to bolster market confidence [13][18]. Trade Dynamics - The trade war has led to a significant decoupling between China and the US, with tariffs of 145% from the US and 125% from China impacting trade flows. However, China's manufacturing and supply chain stability have improved, allowing it to become a global leader in several sectors [8][9]. Real Estate and Financial Sector - The real estate bubble has been effectively addressed, with financial services now focusing on supporting the real economy. The financial sector has moved away from speculative practices, leading to a more stable economic environment [9][10]. International Monetary System - The traditional international order led by the US is facing systemic challenges, with the credibility of the dollar diminishing due to high internal debt and a retreat from globalization. This has resulted in increased volatility in dollar assets and a shift of capital towards non-US markets [10][12]. Future Economic Outlook - The government emphasizes stabilizing employment and consumption, with policies aimed at supporting vulnerable groups affected by tariffs. The focus is on enhancing service consumption and improving income for lower and middle-income groups [17][18].

特朗普关税战火烧身？中国稀土铁幕震动全球，四国专机连夜抵京暗藏玄机 一、关税战局突变：特朗普服软喊话，中国反手甩出"稀土王炸" 关税战火最先烧穿的，是美国自己的裤裆。英特尔总部大楼里，CEO基辛格看着暴跌30%的财报直冒冷汗，10.89万员工里超2.2万人即将被裁—— 这数字够填满25个鸟巢体育馆！要知道，这可是半导体行业的"老大哥"，连它都跪了，其他科技公司还怎么玩？ 华尔街分析师算过一笔账：每增加10%关税，美国消费者就要多掏700亿美元。现在超市货架上的中国制造越来越少，取而代之的是墨西哥产的"山 寨货"和越南造的"半成品"。纽约布鲁克林区的家庭主妇们抱怨："以前20美元能买一整套厨具，现在连个平底锅都涨价到35美元！" 民主党这时候跳出来补刀了。加州州长纽森直接放话要起诉特朗普，理由是"滥用关税损害州权"。这操作堪称教科书级"背刺"——毕竟民主党心里 门儿清，中国手里攥着全球制造业的"七寸"，其他国家才不会跟着美国瞎折腾。 三、全球站队时刻：80国力挺中国，四国专机连夜扎堆北京 "145%的关税确实太高了。"当特朗普在镜头前挤出这句"示弱"时，全球贸易战观察家们都惊掉了下巴——这位以强硬著称的总统，居 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Executive of the Macao SAR, Ho Iat Seng, emphasizes that the primary challenge facing the current government is the relatively singular economic structure, and the government is implementing various measures to promote moderate economic diversification [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Diversification Measures - The Macao SAR government plans to enhance government efficiency, optimize the business environment, advance the construction of the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone, and undertake major engineering projects to address the issue of a singular economic structure [3]. - Hengqin is highlighted as a key area for breaking through the challenges of moderate economic diversification, aiming to provide more job opportunities and living spaces for Macao citizens while opening up economic and commercial development spaces for the business community [3]. Group 2: Youth Engagement and Opportunities - The Chief Executive encourages Macao youth to step out of their comfort zones, engage with Hengqin, and embrace the Greater Bay Area, emphasizing the importance of broadening their horizons and utilizing their skills in the evolving economic landscape [5]. Group 3: Trade and External Influences - Macao's annual export trade is approximately 13 billion Macao Patacas, with exports to the United States around 300 million Macao Patacas, primarily consisting of clothing and souvenirs, indicating a low dependency on the U.S. market [7]. - Although the trade war has not directly impacted Macao, the global consumer power shift poses a risk, prompting the government to explore new overseas markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East while accelerating the development of a world tourism and leisure center [9].