Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged, breaking the $4600 per ounce mark for the first time in January, with a cumulative increase of $280 in the month [1] - Silver prices also experienced a significant rise, increasing over 5% and surpassing $83 [1] - The A-share precious metals sector saw multiple stocks rise sharply, with notable increases including Xiaocheng Technology up over 6%, Hunan Silver up nearly 4%, and Shandong Gold up over 3% [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang reporting a price of ¥1429 per gram, an increase of ¥19 since January 10 [3] - The geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. non-farm payroll data have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD currency pair ended a nine-day rally, facing selling pressure after reaching a high of 1.3920, the highest since December 5, which became a short-term resistance level [1] - The recent softening of the USD, influenced by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the independence of the Fed, has led to a reassessment of policy stability, putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD [3] - The overall weakness of the USD, which has recorded its worst annual performance in eight years in 2025, is compounded by political factors that amplify market divisions regarding future Fed easing policies [3] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals of the US and Canada are diverging, with signs of a weak labor market in Canada suppressing expectations for tightening by the Bank of Canada [4] - The US non-farm payroll report showed an unemployment rate drop to 4.4%, alleviating concerns about the US labor market and providing support for the Fed to maintain high rates for a longer period [4] - Upcoming key inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will directly impact market judgments on Fed policy, leading to a cautious trading environment for the USD/CAD [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2) Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. 3) Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the Friday night session, the main price of bottle chips rose by 118 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6030 yuan/ton (-5), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6080 yuan/ton (-10). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3144 lots to 63,700 lots, and short positions increased by 3102 lots to 65,600 lots [1]. Important Information - **Supply and cost - profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1]. - **December 2025 production**: In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - **Crude oil price**: The market believes that the instability of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran situations has increased, and the potential supply risk has risen, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/ton, and rose 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/ton in the night session [1]. - **Military news**: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, open - source flight tracking data and observations from ground observers showed that a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently. The number of military aircraft dispatched in a short period and their take - off locations have sparked speculation about possible special operations in the region by the US military in the future [1]. Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. Trading Strategy - The reference range for the main contract is 6000 - 6280 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go long on dips [1].

摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1025.66元/克，较前一交易日上涨13.99美元，涨 幅1.38%，日内强势冲高。当日开盘价为1011.66元/克，最高价为1031.87元/克，最低价为1011.28元/ 克。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1025.66元/克，较前一交易日上涨13.99美元，涨幅 1.38%，日内强势冲高。当日开盘价为1011.66元/克，最高价为1031.87元/克，最低价为1011.28元/克。 【要闻速递】 本周五，美国最高法院将迎来"判决日"，可能就特朗普多数关税政策的合法性作出裁决。Polymarket交 易数据显示，市场认为支持特朗普关据《华尔街日报》报道，美国官员透露，特朗普定于周二听取应对 伊朗抗议活动的选项简报，显示其正考虑兑现多次威胁——就伊朗当局镇压示威者的行为对该政权实施 惩戒。 官员表示，特朗普将与高级行政官员召开会议讨论下一步行动，可能包括加强线上反政府信息传播、对 伊朗军事及民用目标部署秘密网络武器、追加制裁乃至军事打击。预计国务卿鲁比奥、防长赫格塞思、 参联会主席凯恩上将出席会议。由于审议尚处早期，特朗普暂不会做 ...

中国基金报记者 张舟 另外，2025年全球央行多次增持黄金，以增强资产组合的多元性与稳定性，这促使国际黄金价格大涨。与之相反，美元指数从2025年年初开始持续震荡下 跌，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比也一跌再跌。 现货白银涨幅扩大至4%，最高价报84美元/盎司，创历史新高。截至发稿报83.527美元/盎司。 | < W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | | | 83.527 | | 昨结 | | 79.764 | 总量 | | | | 0 | | | +3.763 | +4.72% 开盘 | | | 80.697 | 现手 | | | | 0 | | | 最高价 | 84.000 | 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 | 豊 | | | 0 | | | 最低价 | 79.907 | 墙 | せ | 0 | 内 | 물 | | | 0 | | | 关时 | 目K 周Ｋ 五日 | | | | ...

1月12日，本周一早间，贵金属价格开盘便直线飙升：现货黄金价格上涨逾2%，首次站上4600美元大 关，新年首月已累涨280美元；现货白银价格飙升超5%，向上突破83美元，创下历史新高。 这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了市场 对美联储降息的预期。 此外，以英国和德国为首的一些欧洲国家正在讨论加强在格陵兰岛军事存在的计划，以向美国总统特朗 普表明欧洲国家对北极安全的重视。知情人士称，德国将提议设立一个北约联合特派团来保护北极地 区。 此前，美国在对委内瑞拉的行动中抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 在全球范围内的重重不确定性和地缘政治风险，推高了黄金等传统避险资产的价格。 地缘政治风险上升 据央视新闻，美国官员称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案。包括宣布向中东派遣航母战 斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。 据悉，近期美国政府内部已召开初步会议，"讨论支持（伊朗）抗议活动的方式"，其中包括美军对伊朗 政府目标进行军事打击，不过"特朗普政府内部许多人认为，现阶段采取重大军事行动将破坏抗议活 动"。 消息称，特朗普正在考虑所有选项，但尚未做出决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,580 per ounce, is driven by a combination of economic expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4] Economic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reinforcing market predictions for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs for non-yielding assets like gold, increasing their attractiveness [3] - Since the Fed's three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of last year, the market has prepared for a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing domestic unrest in Iran has created political uncertainty, triggering increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Heightened geopolitical risks typically lead investors to seek traditional "safe havens" during times of instability [3] Market Trends - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, continuing a nearly 10% increase from the previous week, while palladium and platinum have strengthened as well [3] - This indicates that current capital flows are not solely focused on gold but are reassessing the entire precious metals sector [3] Long-term Perspectives - Despite significant gains in gold over the past year, funds have not rushed to exit, with some asset management firms choosing to maintain their positions, reflecting a recognition of gold's long-term value [3] - A long-term examination of the U.S. dollar's credibility is also contributing to gold's status as a strategic asset [3] Potential Variables - A forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on key tariff policies from the previous administration may impact policy continuity and market stability expectations, adding another layer of global risk sentiment [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for pure benzene) is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, causing crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand-side operations improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5420 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be focused on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5516 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5223 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan month-on-month). Long positions decreased by 240 lots to 19,500 lots, and short positions decreased by 377 to 25,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48%, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%, and a cumulative import volume increase of 33.61% compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, up 18,000 tons from the previous period (a month-on-month increase of 6.00%) and 132,800 tons more than the same period last year (a year-on-year increase of 71.71%). From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons, and the pick-up was about 7,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the phenol operating rate was 78%, a month-on-month increase of 3%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%; the aniline operating rate was 62.8%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the adipic acid operating rate was 63.6%, a month-on-month increase of 4%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there may be a decrease in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam plant was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: The market believes that the instability of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran situations has increased, raising potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel (a month-on-month increase of 2.35%); the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel (a month-on-month increase of 2.18%); the Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/barrel and 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/barrel at night [2] - Military Movements: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, triggering speculation about potential special operations in the region [2] Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, causing crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand-side operations improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5420 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be focused on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions on dips [2]

来源：汇金网 周一亚洲时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）一度升至约4600美元附近，刷新历史最高纪录。在全球不确定性加剧的背 景下，避险资金持续流入黄金市场，同时市场对美国年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支撑。 地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事选项，此前伊 朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。 与此同时，欧洲地缘安全议题同样引发市场关注。英国和德国正讨论在格陵兰地区加强军事存在，以显示其对北 极安全问题的重视。 多重地缘政治变量交织，使全球市场避险情绪维持在高位。美联储政策预期提供额外支撑：美国最新公布的就业 数据表现分化，也进一步增强了市场对美联储未来降息的押注。 数据显示，12月非农就业人数仅增加5万人，低于市场预期；失业率则小幅回落至4.4%。就业增长放缓，使投资 者认为货币政策存在进一步转向宽松的空间。在低利率环境下，持有无息资产的机会成本下降，这通常对黄金价 格构成利好。 市场接下来将重点关注即将公布的美国CPI通胀数据，以判断通胀回落是否为降息创造更明确的条件。 从日线结构来看，黄金价 ...