Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a new weekly high of $3,373.25 per ounce, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, leading to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also showed a mild increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, prompting a reassessment of monetary policy and contributing to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] Group 2 - Analysts warn that recent tariff policies from the Trump administration may push inflation higher in the coming months, despite the current mild inflation data [4] - The main driver of the CPI increase was housing costs, particularly rent, which rose by 0.3%, while food prices also rebounded by 0.3% [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear negotiations and military readiness in Israel, have significantly increased market risk aversion, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international oil prices increased overnight, and the crude oil market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with attention to the actual development of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. - Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by the positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - Copper prices declined overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Short - sellers should consider changing positions and setting stop - losses [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile, and short positions can be considered on rallies as the demand may weaken seasonally [5][8]. - Alumina futures are expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [9]. - Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and light - position participation in the rebound is recommended [11]. - Industrial silicon futures rose with reduced positions, and caution is advised when chasing highs [12]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. - Steel prices fell overnight, and the demand outlook is pessimistic, with attention to terminal demand and policies [14]. - Coke and coking coal prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies [17]. - Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. - The container shipping index (European line) is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads are expected to weaken [20]. - Asphalt prices are expected to rise with oil prices, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to be in low - level oscillations [22]. - Urea prices are expected to be weak [23]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [24]. - Styrene prices are expected to be supported by cost due to rising oil prices [25]. - Polypropylene and polyethylene prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with limited upward momentum [26]. - PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations with limited downward space [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. - Glass prices fell overnight, and cautious operation is recommended [31]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended at high levels [32]. - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to weather changes [33]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to weather and supply - demand factors [34]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - Domestic soybean prices are in horizontal adjustments, and attention should be paid to weather factors [36]. - Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - Live hog prices are expected to be under short - term downward pressure and have long - term support [38]. - Egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - Cotton prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to trade talks and inventory [40]. - Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - Apple prices are in oscillations, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - Wood prices are weak, and temporary observation is recommended [43]. - Pulp prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. - Stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices soared. Brent's August contract rose 6.28% to exceed $70/barrel. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp increase in oil prices. The unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventories last week also supported the strong trend of crude oil [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its crack spread is expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [20]. - **Asphalt**: Overnight oil price increase is expected to drive up asphalt prices. However, the processing of diluted asphalt has a large theoretical loss, and the increase in asphalt production is limited. The terminal demand is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak. Although the chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is under pressure in the off - season, but the rise in oil prices provides some support [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are volatile. The aluminum market is in the process of de - stocking, but the demand may weaken seasonally. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5][8]. - **Alumina**: Alumina futures are weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies due to supply surplus [6]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, but the TC is low. The output of domestic smelters is expected to increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines was delayed, and the NPI price was stable [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel**: Steel prices fell overnight. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the negative feedback expectation is fermenting. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policies [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices are volatile. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the prices rebounded. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies. The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal. The supply is decreasing, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Urea prices are weak. The agricultural demand is partially started but scattered, and the export is less than expected [23]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to increase [24]. - **Styrene**: Rising oil prices are expected to support styrene prices. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Rising oil prices support the cost, but the supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is weak for both polypropylene and polyethylene [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations due to cost increase and supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade talks brought positive sentiment. The supply of soybeans is increasing, but the cost of imported soybeans is rising. The soybean meal inventory is rising, and the market is expected to be volatile [33]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Sino - US trade negotiations are expected to drive up the price of rapeseed seeds, and domestic rapeseed products are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - **Corn**: Sino - US trade talks reached a framework consensus. The supply of corn in Shandong increased slightly. The start of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan affected the corn market. Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Pig**: Pig futures are in a narrow - range fluctuation. The short - term spot price is under downward pressure, and the long - term price has support [38]. - **Egg**: Egg futures showed different trends. The spot price generally decreased. The egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and the planting and growth conditions are normal. Sino - US trade talks are positive. Domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is expected to be bearish, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are in oscillations. The market demand is decreasing, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - **Wood**: Wood prices are weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. Temporary observation is recommended [43]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are low. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The price of the Shanghai - Gdansk test route by Maersk decreased slightly. There are doubts about the sustainability of the freight rate. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: A - share markets oscillated and rose, and stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Bond markets are strong, and treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛顿和 北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致；美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊 拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧；伊朗伊斯兰革 命卫队总司令萨拉米表示，伊朗已为任何战斗准备好升级版导弹；中性 2.基差：6月11日，阿曼原油现货价为66.79美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.59美元/桶，基22.02元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至6月6日当周API原油库存减少37万桶，预期增加10万桶；美国至6月6日当周EIA库存减少 364.4万桶，预期减少196万桶；库欣地区库存至6月6日当周减少40.3万桶，前值增加57.6万桶；截止至6月 11日，上海原油期货库存为402.9万桶，不变；偏多 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线上方；中性 2025-06-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - **Related Information**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - **Related Information**: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - **Related Information**: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - **Related Information**: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - **Related Information**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - **Related Information**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - **Related Information**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - **Related Information**: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - **Related Information**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - **Related Information**: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - **Related Information**: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - **Market Review**: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - **Related Information**: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - **Related Information**: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 19. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - **Related Information**: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 20. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - **Related Information**: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - **Related Information**: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5

以下是2025年6月12日财经热点的综合梳理，涵盖宏观经济、股市动态、行业政策及国际局势等关键信息： --- 1. 中美经贸磋商取得进展 中美双方在伦敦举行经贸磋商机制首次会议，达成框架协议，美方考虑将对华关税从145%降至50%-80%，但具体细则尚未落 地。中方宣布对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品零关税，支持非洲商品出口。 2. 国内政策支持科技创新与金融改革 - 科创板深化：上交所召开"科创板八条"一周年座谈会，推动指数化投资和ETF高质量发展，助力硬科技企业融资。 - 深圳综改试点升级：允许粤港澳大湾区企业"H+A"跨境上市，深化资本市场互联互通。 - 汽车产业链优化：比亚迪、小米等15家车企承诺将供应商账期统一控制在60天内，缓解产业链资金压力。 1. 中东局势升温 3. 央行维持流动性宽松 6月12日央行开展1193亿元逆回购操作，市场流动性保持合理充裕，DR007利率小幅回升至1.5276%，但整体资金面平稳。 --- 1. A股市场表现 - 指数震荡反弹：沪指收复3400点，深成指、创业板指分别涨0.83%和1.21%，但成交量缩至1.28万亿元，显示资金谨慎。 - 板块分化：稀土永磁（ ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank's annual report titled "The International Status of the Euro" highlights a significant shift in global reserve assets, with gold surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] Group 1: Reserve Asset Composition - As of 2024, the US dollar accounts for 46% of global foreign exchange reserves, showing a slight decrease from the previous year [1] - Gold's share in global reserves has risen to 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% [1] - This marks a historical high for gold, which has seen a consistent increase in central bank purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, double the average level of the 2010s [1] Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - Global central banks currently hold 36,000 tons of gold, nearing the historical peak levels seen during the Bretton Woods system post-World War II [1] - The primary motivations for central banks increasing their gold reserves include hedging against geopolitical risks, diversifying investments, and concerns over potential sanctions and significant changes in the global monetary system [1]

新华财经纽约6月11日电（记者刘亚南） 由于中东地缘政治风险升高和中美新一轮经贸谈判结果构成利 好，国际油价在隔夜市场走强，11日早盘强势盘整，午后涨幅明显扩大，收盘时国际油价均大幅上涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.17美元，收于每桶68.15美元，涨幅 为4.88%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.90美元，收于每桶69.77美元，涨幅为4.34%。 据媒体11日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，自己对伊朗会在与美国谈判中同意停止铀浓缩活动不再那么有 信心。 报道称，如果伊朗未能与美国就核问题达成协议并导致美伊冲突，伊朗威胁攻击美国在中东地区的军事 基地。 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢10日晚在英国伦敦说，过去两天，中美双方团队进行了深 入交流，就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。 PVM石油同仁公司分析师塔玛斯·瓦加（Tamas Varga）表示，贸易相关的油价下行风险已经暂时被移 除。 美国能源信息局在当日发布的数据显示，美国上周商业原油库存量为4.324亿桶，环比下降360万桶。同 期，美国汽油和蒸馏油库存环比分别增加150万桶和 ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank's annual report indicates a slight decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, now at 46% in 2024, down from the previous year [1] - Gold has seen a significant increase in its share of foreign exchange reserves, rising to 20%, surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally [1] - The report highlights a trend among central banks to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and mitigate geopolitical risks [1] - The euro maintains a stable share of 19% in various metrics, including foreign exchange reserves, international trade settlements, and the global bond market, remaining the second-largest currency in the world [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest official reserve asset globally, accounting for approximately 20% of total official reserves by the end of 2024, compared to the euro's 16% [1] - The increase in gold's share is driven by significant gold purchases by central banks and record-high gold prices, with central banks buying over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024, which is double the average level of the 2010s [3][4] - Gold prices have surged nearly 62% since the beginning of 2024, reaching a historical high of over $3,500 per ounce in mid-April, surpassing the peak during the 1979 oil crisis when adjusted for inflation [3] Group 2 - Approximately two-thirds of central bank gold purchases are for asset diversification, while about 40% are to hedge against geopolitical risks, with demand for gold rising sharply since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [3] - The total amount of gold held by global central banks is projected to be around 36,000 tons by the end of 2024, nearing the historical high of 38,000 tons set in 1965 [4] - Despite the increase in gold holdings, the US dollar remains the dominant global reserve asset, accounting for 46% of total reserves in 2024, while the euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves remains stable at 20% [3][5] Group 3 - The ECB notes a break in the historical correlation where gold becomes cheaper when the real yields of other assets rise, as investors increasingly view gold as a tool for hedging political risks rather than inflation [5] - The euro's international role remains stable, with a significant increase in euro-denominated bond and loan issuance, growing over 40% to approximately $900 billion, with bonds making up two-thirds of this issuance [5]

| Milli | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★鸟称谈论乌俄第三轮谈判的任何准备工作仍为时过早。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩:呼吁俄乌立即无条件停 火，持续至少30天。俄驻美大使：俄美新一轮会谈将于近期在莫斯科举行。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破刷新2012 年以 ...