Group 1: Market Overview - In May, gold prices experienced a downward adjustment, reaching a low of $3120, ending a streak of new highs since January, influenced by easing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [2] - Oil prices fluctuated, initially rising from $55.78 to around $64, but concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ increasing production led to a bearish outlook [4][9] - The US dollar index fluctuated, peaking at 101.95 before falling to 99.41, with a significant decline of over 9% since January, raising concerns about the dollar's strength amid trade tensions and potential government shutdowns [6] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Gold remains in a long-term bull market, with expectations of further increases due to potential Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, despite recent price adjustments [8][19] - Oil supply concerns are heightened as OPEC+ announced production increases, leading to predictions of further price declines, with a potential drop below $55 [9][27] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties from trade policies and economic conditions, with a projected trading range of $4.50 to $5.30 [10][28] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US labor market showed resilience with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, despite the impact of trade tensions [11][13] - Inflation indicators showed a decrease, with April CPI at 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [11][14] - Economic growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with expectations of a 1.3% GDP growth rate for 2025, reflecting concerns over trade policies and economic stability [14][16] Group 4: Equity Market Trends - US stock markets rebounded in May, with the S&P 500 up 6.15% and the Nasdaq up 9.56%, as trade tensions eased and investor sentiment improved [29] - The Nikkei 225 index showed a recovery, reaching 38,700, supported by positive economic data and easing trade concerns [10][30] - Investor confidence in Japanese assets is rising due to the weakening of US debt and the attractiveness of Japanese financial assets amid global economic uncertainties [30][31]

端午假期期间，受美元走弱、地缘冲突加剧和美国关税政策反复等因素影响，外盘贵金属市场率先掀起 一波避险潮。6月3日国内期市开盘后，沪金、沪银延续端午节前的强势表现，其中沪银期货主力合约尤 为亮眼，单日大幅上涨2.85%，至8456元／千克，涨幅显著超越沪金，领涨贵金属板块。 贵金属避险属性凸显 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。欧盟称若谈判未果， 针对美国的反制措施最迟将于7月14日生效；日本则明确表示无意在关税问题上让步；中美贸易摩擦可 能升级，美方指控中方违反日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部回应称，美方新增AI芯片管制、EDA软 件禁售等措施严重破坏既有协议。 当前，金银比仍维持在100左右的历史高位，反映出相对于黄金价格，白银价格或被显著低估。从资产 配置逻辑来看，避险情绪主导的黄金价格阶段性上涨结束后，资金往往转向估值更低、价格弹性更高的 白银以捕捉补涨机会。美联储政策分歧加剧美元指数波动，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比暗示15个月内可能 大幅降息，低利率预期进一步推动资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a four-week high but are currently facing resistance, with geopolitical tensions and trade war risks providing support for gold prices [1][2][4] - The recent increase in gold prices was driven by heightened market risk aversion due to Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as escalating conflicts in Ukraine [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a high-level consolidation, with key support levels at $3354 and $3333, and resistance levels at $3382 and $3400 [4] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials [2] - The recent ADP employment data showed a slowdown in hiring, reaching a two-year low, which has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report for May revealed only 37,000 new jobs added in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market and raising concerns about the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2] Economic Indicators - The ADP report is considered a leading indicator for the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to show 130,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2] - Following the ADP report, the dollar index dropped approximately 20 basis points, reaching a low of 98.9783, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.58% to 4.421%, reflecting increased investor concerns about economic growth [1] Market Reactions - The gold price surged by $26 to a high of $3384.52 per ounce after the ADP report, highlighting a rise in safe-haven demand [1] - Market sentiment is divided, with some traders believing that upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm data will dictate market direction, while institutions focus on long-term trends [2] Future Outlook - If the non-farm payroll data is also disappointing, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may increase, putting further pressure on the dollar and benefiting safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Conversely, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has successfully established a bottom, with the lowest point at around $3344, and is expected to test resistance at $3392 [3][5] - Current trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips around $3345-$3350 and selling on rallies near $3385-$3390, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6][5]

世界500强投资企业 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/3 | 3360. 36 | 35. 30 | 3385. 00 | 34. 39 | 783. 10 | 8456. 00 | 779.42 | 8420.00 | ...

受美伊核谈判风险影响，黄金成避险刚需，伊朗央行、商人、民众都在囤金，导致伊朗本地金价暴涨 80%。 据央视新闻周三报道，美国和其他国家将制定一项更详细的方案，旨在阻止伊朗发展核武器，但允许其 获得新核电站所需的燃料。此前特朗普不允许伊朗开展任何铀浓缩活动，而伊朗外长称，继续进行铀浓 缩活动是伊朗的红线。 6月4日周三，据媒体报道，伊朗的货币——里亚尔受美国和欧盟制裁、政治冲突、通胀影响，多年来总 体处于贬值趋势，所以很多人开始抢买黄金。商人买黄金来躲避美国制裁，而普通老百姓买黄金来保值 避险。 "今天靠黄金，明天靠加密货币，后天可能又换别的。" 一位不愿透露姓名的经济学家表示： "全球没有人能阻止伊朗进口黄金。" "黄金市场本来就很不透明，黄金占用的空间又小，而且大部分黄金是从邻国悄悄带进来 的。" 也有分析师警告，金价涨势太猛，可能已经形成泡沫。3月底金价一度冲破1000万里亚尔/枚，但随着美 伊开始核谈判，市场憧憬制裁解除导致金价回调，有些伊朗民众高位买入后已经被套。不过，由于制裁 问题没解决，黄金需求依然在。 在全球避险资金流入黄金的背景下，伊朗的需求更为激烈。过去一年，伊朗本地金价涨幅高达80%，从 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The gold price maintains a high - level volatile pattern supported by risk - aversion sentiment dominated by tariffs. Although the US dollar strengthens slightly in the short - term and exerts pressure on the gold price, the gold's safe - haven property is continuously boosted by geopolitical risks. Silver also maintains a strong trend due to the rise in the gold price and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline periodically. In the long - term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - lasting global de - dollarization trend, which is structurally beneficial to the gold price, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with a short - term tendency to be volatile and bullish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 782.42 yuan/gram, down 0.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8463 yuan/kilogram, up 7. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 523 to 180310 hands, while those of Shanghai silver increased by 9481 to 379627 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 4044 to 129913 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 2228 to 142476 hands. The gold warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 17247 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity increased by 18364 to 1087210 kilograms [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 0.1; the silver spot price is 8454 yuan/kilogram, up 29. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 1.02 yuan/gram, up 0.78; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 9 yuan/kilogram, up 22 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.57 tons to 935.64 tons, and silver ETF holdings increased by 64.83 tons to 14416.65 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC increased by 10203 to 174184 contracts, and those of silver increased by 2970 to 53012 contracts. The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 and 54.83 respectively. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 22.57%, up 0.36; the 40 - day historical volatility is 27.14%, down 0.12. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold is 23.69%, up 0.56 and 0.55 respectively [2]. b) Industry News - Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% starting from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - With five weeks left until the tariff restoration on July 8, the Trump administration urged countries to submit the best trade negotiation plans before June 4, bringing new uncertainties to the global market [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is reduced from 2.2% to 1.6%, and is expected to be 1.5% in 2026 [2] c) Macroeconomic Data - US April durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, slightly below expectations [2] - US April JOLTS job openings were 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [2] - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI hit a new low since November 2024, remaining in the contraction range for months [2]

本周多国央行政策动态将成市场焦点,周四欧洲央行料将降息25个基点至2%,为应对经济疲软迈出关键一 步,比降息本身更受关注的是行长拉加德的政策指引,任何"进一步宽松"或"暂停观望"的暗示都可能引发 欧元大幅波动。与此同时,加拿大央行周三预计将维持5%利率不变,尽管通胀意外回升,市场普遍预期其 仍将保持谨慎立场。投资者需密切关注两大央行对未来通胀与政策路径的评估,以捕捉市场交易机会。 本周美国非农数据将成为重点 本周金融市场迎来风云变幻的一周,6月首周不仅是传统意义上的"数据超级周",更叠加多国央行政策博 弈、美国就业数据考验以及特朗普关税突袭等重磅事件,多个风险点交织,市场或剧烈波动,高地集团作为 一家贵金属的投资资讯公司,将从本篇文章为着入点深入解析各大关键时刻,为投资者提供全景式交易参 考。 俄乌地缘局势分歧再度升级 据土耳其外交部6月1日消息,乌克兰与俄罗斯代表团将于6月2日13时在伊斯坦布尔契拉昂宫举行自2022 年冲突爆发以来的第二轮直接会谈,尽管外界期待此次会谈有望为局势降温提供契机,但双方在停火条 件、领土归属等核心问题上依然分歧严重,且战事持续升级,令谈判前景蒙上阴影。 乌克兰坚持国家主权与领土 ...

端午节后的首个交易日，内盘贵金属期货跳空高开，截至收盘，沪金、沪银期货主力合约的涨幅分别为 1.4%、2.85%。 "避险情绪再度升温是贵金属价格上涨的主要原因。"金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，全球贸易摩擦 可能再度升级，市场避险情绪升温。5月末，特朗普宣布将把所有进口钢、铝关税从25%提高到50%，6 月4日正式生效。此外，"对等关税"的90天暂停期即将于7月初到期。目前美国仅与英国达成了贸易协 议，若与其他国家的贸易谈判无突破，"对等关税"可能恢复。数据方面，端午节期间公布的美国ISM制 造业PMI超预期下跌，随着关税政策对经济的负面影响持续传导，美国经济面临进一步的下行压力，利 好贵金属等避险资产。此外，地缘政治风险上升。中东方面，尽管美国和伊朗的谈判持续推进，但是进 展缓慢且充满不确定性，双方分歧较大。俄乌方面，虽然双方已经展开实质性的接触与谈判，但近期局 部冲突有所升级，未来地区冲突也有进一步加剧的风险。 展望后市，吴梓杰表示，短期内随着避险情绪进一步发酵，贵金属价格可能持续上涨。中期来看，贵金 属价格走势则仍取决于6月美国CPI数据、美联储议息会议结果和美国贸易政策变化等因素。如果通胀 继续回落 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The performance of commodity and alternative QDII funds has shown significant divergence this year, with precious metal funds performing well while energy funds have generally retreated [1][3] - Among 63 commodity funds, 60 have seen net value growth, representing a 95% success rate, while the three funds with net value declines are all energy-related [1] - In the alternative QDII category, several gold-themed funds have achieved net value growth rates exceeding 20%, with the highest reaching 31%, outperforming oil-themed funds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have been on a downward trend since mid-January, with the WTI crude oil main contract price dropping to $60 per barrel, previously hitting a low of $54 per barrel [2] - Analysts suggest that while the weak oil price trend may continue, the market is absorbing negative factors, and there may be limited space for further short positions [2] - There is a mixed outlook for oil prices, with some analysts optimistic about short-term support due to rising market risk appetite and the upcoming traditional demand season, although long-term rebound potential appears limited [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - In contrast to oil, precious metal prices, particularly gold, have been strong this year, driven by risk aversion and declining overseas market interest rates [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of continued strength in prices in the short term [3]