21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 "五一"假期期间，今年以来一路高歌猛进的黄金市场经历了一波明显的调整。品牌首饰金价格普遍跌破千元大关，国际金价也 险些跌破3200美元大关，较4月22日3500美元/盎司的历史新高一度回落近300美元。 然而，就在假期结束之际，市场形势迅速发生逆转，众多一线品牌金价"大反转"，重新站上千元关口，国际金价也一改颓势， 重新站上3300美元关口。市场分析认为，美国关税政策的反复无常、中东局势的不确定性以及美国一季度经济表现不及预期是 近期金价上涨的主要推手。 东吴期货贵金属研究员尹霄蕾告诉记者，特朗普上周日宣布对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，加剧了市场对贸易摩擦的担 忧，避险需求再度回升，是推动金价恢复上涨的主因。她还预计，今年下半年黄金价格整体仍然有望震荡上行。 当被问及对黄金的看法时，达利欧表示自己比以往更加看好黄金，但建议投资者保持克制。他认为未来充满不确定性，投资者 需要构建多元化的投资组合来应对。他建议"谨慎"的黄金配置比例为10%至15%，这一比例既能起到保护作用，又避免过度依赖 单一资产。他还强调，合理的资产分配是应对未来不确定性的重要策略。 在全球贸易局势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in gold prices is primarily driven by significant fluctuations in Asian currencies, which aligns with risk-averse behavior in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta notes that gold has recovered its losses from the previous week, although the exact catalysts remain unclear [1] - The volatility in Asian currencies provides a plausible explanation for the timing of gold's rebound and fits the logic of seeking safe-haven assets [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - As authorities begin to intervene in the currency markets, the demand for safe-haven assets may gradually decrease [1] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision from the Federal Reserve poses a risk for gold bulls, as the market has aggressively bet on a dovish shift [1] - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may issue hawkish signals to correct market expectations, which could impact gold prices [1] Group 3: Long-term vs Short-term Trends - In the medium to long term, the upward trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of continued low real yields during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1] - Short-term risks are present; positive developments in trade tensions or a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could lead to a market re-evaluation and further pullback in gold prices [1]

基本面： 周二（5月6日）亚欧时段，现货黄金进一步扩大隔夜涨势，盘中一度上行测试3390一线压力后回吐涨幅，目前交投于3365美元附近。受美元走软和避险需求 推动，金价周一上涨近3%，现货黄金收报3333.73美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价上涨近100美元，市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。 美元指数周一下跌 0.2%，使得黄金对其他货币持有者来说价格降低；市场权衡特朗普总统关税政策的持续不确定性及其对经济的影响。美国总统特朗普周 日宣布对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。财政部长贝森特周一为特朗普的关税措施辩护，强调他包括减税在 内的更广泛议程最终将带来长期经济增长。 美国服务业增长4月有所回升，而衡量企业支付的材料和服务价格的指标则飙升至逾两年最高水平，这表明关税导致的通胀压力正在增加。供应管理协会 （ISM）周一的调查显示，美国服务业企业担心美国总统特朗普的关税对价格的影响，以及政府寻求大幅缩减开支导致联邦支出锐减。特朗普反复无常的关 税政策加剧了经济的不确定性。在ISM调查中，一些房地产、租赁和出租公司将关税的实施描述为 "反复无常，令人抓狂"。ISM称，4月 ...

新华财经北京5月6日电在周一（5月5日）大幅拉涨约100美元之后，周二（5月6日）国际金价继续惯性 冲高。截至发稿时，伦敦现货黄金一度突破3380美元／盎司关口，纽约COMEX黄金期货最活跃合约期 价更是一度摸高至3395美元／盎司。以下是部分机构观点： 铜冠金源期货表示，目前来看，黄金依然受到避险需求增强的支撑。密切关注本周即将公布的美联储货 币政策决议。特朗普重申不会提前解除鲍威尔的主席职务，并再次呼吁美联储应降息以刺激经济增长。 尽管市场普遍预期美联储在本次会议上将维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但关税摩擦给美国经济前 景带来的不确定性加大，美联储的未来利率路径面临重新评估的压力。密切关注美联储经济展望与美联 储主席鲍威尔的讲话内容，以判断未来货币政策方向。 金瑞期货表示，当前市场风险偏好恢复，但是关税对经济的潜在负面影响并未解除，市场对关税缓解的 乐观预期停留在情绪层面，黄金的避险多头逻辑依然存在，叠加各国央行存在持续买入需求，因而底部 支撑较强。若后续美国经济出现实质性走弱信号，或关税政策进一步恶化，甚至关于关税的谈判细节不 及预期，均可能引发避险情绪反复，为贵金属价格提供新的上行动力。综 ...

近日，在关税政策扰动下，黄金价格出现大幅波动，成为市场焦点。 在当地时间5月3日举行的伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上，巴菲特表示，美国的财政政策可能会侵蚀美元的 价值，多次提到美元贬值的风险。他表示不会投资于会大幅贬值的货币，并指出美国当前的财政赤字模 式不可持续。 KITCO调查显示，多数华尔街分析对本周金价维持看跌预期，多数散户则重拾看涨立场。本周将迎来 美联储利率决议，料将主导本周行情，另外，需要继续关注国际贸易局势的相关消息。 银河证券指出，虽然金价在短期的大幅上涨后波动风险加大，但中期看美国加征关税后加大美国经济衰 退概率，与贸易摩擦可能将持续反复的宏观与地缘政治风险下，全球黄金ETF基金以及以中国人民银行 为首的全球央行有望持续净购入黄金，推升黄金价格。且从全球黄金ETF基金的历史持有黄金量峰值以 及发展中国家央行相对于发达国家央行的黄金资产配置占比看，全球黄金ETF基金与全球央行仍有较大 的黄金增持空间。 光大期货指出，避险情绪重回市场，黄金盘中大涨，接近抹平一周来跌幅。后续来看，特朗普政府态度 仍会反复，但在发债压力下总体相比4月份或将缓和，另外俄乌问题重新进入和谈窗口期，中东局势虽 局部升温但未扩 ...

摘要周二(5月6日)亚盘时段，现货黄金短线突然暴涨超40美元，金价刚刚触及3381.41美元/盎司，创下 日内高点。日内将可关注美国3月贸易帐(亿美元)、美国4月全球供应链压力指数等，预计偏向利好金 价，反之根据昨日数据超预期向好和走势来看，也预计对金价打压有限，其也仍是入场看涨机会。 当地时间周一，特朗普签署关于生物医药研究的命令，希望借机促进美国药品制造业。特朗普并宣布， 将在未来两周内宣布对医药产品的关税措施。 Kitco Metals资深金属分析师Jim Wyckoff说："我们看到避险需求持续流入，让金价居高不下。金价将保 持在3000美元/盎司以上，至少短期内会如此。" 黄金通常被视为不确定性中的避险工具，而且在低利率环境下表现良好。今年以来金价飙升26.3%，而 且多次创下历史新高纪录。 【黄金分析】 黄金周一受美元走软和避险需求推动，再次大涨，当天最低3237，最高3337，日线收阳于3333，从日线 看回调结束，金价将再次上涨，上方继续看3500，重点关注关税消息面影响，日波动百美金是常态，交 易注意风险和仓位控制，四小时线，小时线，均呈震荡上行，上方关注3350和3370，操作思路回调多， ...

黄金价格攀升，避险需求激增，高盛重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，美联储决议是否会成为转折点？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-week high due to increased concerns over U.S. President Trump's tariff plans, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, while investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [1] Group 1 - Gold prices increased on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high [1] - Concerns regarding President Trump's tariff plans have intensified, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The heightened demand for safe-haven assets is a key factor in the price increase [1] Group 2 - Investors are paying close attention to the forthcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may influence market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold prices driven by a decline in the US dollar and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, with June 2025 gold futures rising by $96.1 to $3343.5 per ounce, marking a 2.96% increase [1] - Analysts note that the US dollar index fell by 0.2% to 99.828, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices, which are expected to remain above $3000 in the short term [1] - The market is anticipating the results of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, potentially marking the last clear outcome of the year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that gold is expected to outperform silver due to strong central bank demand for gold, which is a structural factor in the rising gold-silver ratio [2] - On the same day, silver futures for July delivery increased by $0.495 to $32.675 per ounce, reflecting a 1.54% rise, although this was lower than the increase in gold prices [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a notable increase of 11.96% in Q1 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index which declined by 1.21% [10][13]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant performance differentiation, with both precious and industrial metals leading in growth rates [10][13]. - The increase in metal prices is driven by supply constraints and heightened demand due to geopolitical factors, particularly U.S. tariffs impacting export dynamics [1][2][14]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 3550.42 billion CNY, down 7.81% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit increased by 22.34% to 194.36 billion CNY. The price rise is attributed to supply shortages and U.S. inventory hoarding [1][14]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector reported revenues of 1069.79 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.32% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 14.18% to 86.18 billion CNY, driven by lower alumina prices [1][28]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector achieved revenues of 1011.43 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a 19.07% increase quarter-on-quarter, with net profit rising by 13.92% to 48.30 billion CNY, supported by rising gold prices amid economic uncertainties [2][50]. Rare Earth Materials - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue decline of 25.45% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit down 18.55%. However, the price of praseodymium oxide showed a slight increase, indicating potential recovery in demand [2][59]. Minor Metals - The minor metals sector reported a revenue decrease of 3.95% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit down 7.23%. Prices for antimony and tin continued to rise, suggesting a focus on high-elasticity niche leaders [3][80]. Lithium - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues down 3% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. However, net profit turned positive at 22.1 billion CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability despite ongoing price declines [3][88]. New Materials - The new materials sector saw a revenue decline of 3.14% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit improved significantly, highlighting ongoing innovation and domestic substitution trends [3][89].