Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply - demand imbalance persists with high inventory and oversupply. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the downside is limited as it has reached a 5 - year low [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to low demand, high inventory, and a declining cost center, the price is also expected to stay in a low - level range. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low with limited downside [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,050 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 88,522 (- 57,307) lots, and the open interest was 121,924 (- 967) lots. The recent rebound is a minor repair after previous over - decline, driven by macro - level easing expectations such as the Fed's rate - cut anticipation and improved Sino - US relations. However, the supply - demand imbalance remains, and there is obvious support near the cost line [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is quiet with stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - plant profits, leading to cautious raw - material procurement and some plants considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mostly in the range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average due to consecutive price rebounds, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,351 (- 371) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,074 (- 1,290) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,460 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 95,108 (- 68,491) lots, and the open interest was 102,135 (- 4,171) lots. It showed a low - level oscillating upward trend, similar to Shanghai nickel, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term due to the coexistence of macro support and fundamental pressure [2]. - **Spot**: Affected by the "buy on rising" psychology, stainless - steel spot trading has improved, and prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets have increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,700 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is between 355 - 555 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: DREIE (equity index), Copper, Zinc, Tin (medium to long - term), Short - fiber [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Mono - crystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Bilateral steel, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Silicon carbide, Rare earth metals, Soda ash, Coke, Coking coal, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Livestock, Crude oil, Natural gas, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, TEPG, PG [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Fuel oil, Asphalt, Benzene ethylene [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's oscillating adjustment, and the index may rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The support from Central Huijin provides a buffer, and the risk of index decline is controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut improves the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on the prices of various metals and energy - chemical products. The fundamentals of different industries also play a crucial role in price trends [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **DREIE**: The market divergence will be digested during the index's adjustment, and the index may rise further. The support from Central Huijin reduces the downside risk. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and industrial support lead to a strong price [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is positive, and the price has rebounded due to limited industrial drivers [1]. - **Alumina**: The production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price oscillates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The reduction in processing fees leads to a production cut in December, supporting the price, which is oscillating strongly in the short - term but with upward pressure [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation warms the sentiment. The impact of Indonesia's restrictions on smelting projects is limited. The price has rebounded after a decline and may oscillate with the macro - environment. The long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The raw material price has stopped falling, and the futures price oscillates. Short - term trading is recommended, and a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy can be considered [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa support the price. The demand pressure remains, and chasing high prices requires caution. The medium - to long - term outlook is positive [1]. Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: After a sharp rise and fall, the short - term upward trend may slow down, and the price will oscillate. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in December provides support [1]. - **Platinum**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the [long - platinum short - lithium] arbitrage strategy can be continued in the medium - term [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in the northwest is recovering, and the production in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The production schedule in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in organic silicon [1]. - **Mono - crystalline silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally, and large manufacturers are reluctant to deliver goods [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and Bilateral steel**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis - positive arbitrage positions. Do not chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese silicon and Silicon carbide**: The direct demand is fair, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating, limiting the price rebound [1]. - **Rare earth metals**: The supply and demand are supportive, and the valuation is low, but the price fluctuates strongly due to short - term sentiment [1]. - **Soda ash**: It follows the trend of glass, but the supply and demand are average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. - **Coke and Coking coal**: The valuation suggests that the price decline is approaching the end. The downstream may start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. Short - term trading is recommended for now [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. The downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is currently in a state of "supported but lacking drivers" [1]. - **Corn**: The short - term downstream inventory is low, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. The spot price is firm, and the futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Weather changes in South America should be monitored [1]. - **Pulverized coal**: The futures price has risen sharply due to low - warehouse - receipt trading, and the short - term fluctuation is expected to be large [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weak but have been priced in the market. Chasing short positions after a large price decline has a low risk - return ratio [1]. - **Livestock**: The spot price has gradually stabilized. The demand provides support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel oil and Asphalt**: They have a negative outlook due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the possible falsification of demand, and high profits [1]. - **BR rubber**: There is strong raw material cost support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the inventory may accumulate. The high - inventory situation restricts the price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and factors such as India's cancellation of import certification restrictions improve the export prospects and boost the purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the price decline due to inventory accumulation. The cost support from coal is weakening, and the expected new device production suppresses the price increase [1]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced gasoline demand in the US [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: The supply pressure is high due to factors such as high operating loads and new capacity releases, while the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are factors such as delivery delays of alumina, high operating loads, inventory pressure in Shandong, and the risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **TEPG and PG**: The geopolitical and tariff situations are easing, and the market is expected to return to a loose fundamental logic. The price of PG oscillates in a range after a decline [1]. Others - **Container shipping on European routes**: The price increase in December fell short of expectations, the peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a short-term pullback due to profit-taking, multiple favorable factors are accumulating, with investors focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [1] - Current spot gold prices are fluctuating around $4200 per ounce, with market sentiment swinging between interest rate cut expectations and economic data [1] - Analysts believe this is not just a temporary fluctuation but a preparation for higher peaks, as evidenced by strong buying support after a six-week high [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed weak performance during the Asian and European sessions but rebounded during the US session, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The technical adjustment demand is expected to persist in the short term, but the fundamental factors may continue to stimulate bullish enthusiasm [2] - The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart indicate a consolidation phase, with significant price action expected within the range of $4260 to $4150 [4] Group 3 - Trading strategies suggest short positions near $4230 with targets around $4200, and potential long positions near $4175 to $4170 with stop-loss levels set around $4165 to $4163 [5] - Domestic gold prices are showing clear high-level fluctuations, with the Shanghai gold contract closing around 965, indicating a cautious approach to long-term trading [6] - Key levels for domestic gold include resistance at 970 and support at 955 for Shanghai gold, while for Rongtong gold, support levels are at 960 and 945 [7]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251203: Weak Recovery after Decline [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On December 2nd, the main nickel contract fluctuated within a range. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery after getting support around 115,000 [1] - On December 2nd, the main stainless - steel contract also fluctuated within a range. Given the loose fundamentals and the weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On December 2nd, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel near - month contract was 117,700 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 88,522 lots, a decrease of 57,307 lots, and the open interest was 121,924 lots, a decrease of 967 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 14,900 US dollars/ton, with the closing price of the electronic trading session at 14,740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135 US dollars, and the closing price of the on - site trading session at 14,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 128 US dollars. The trading volume was 8,350 lots, a decrease of 2,233 lots [2] Price Spreads - The basis (spot - to - futures) of SMM I electrolytic nickel average price and the active nickel futures contract closing price was 1,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2] - The spreads between different - term contracts of Shanghai nickel futures showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 390 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat. The amount of nickel ore arriving at the port last week increased, and the port inventory decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic and Indonesian production schedules decreasing in December. The electrolytic nickel production schedule in China increased in December, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports decreased [1] - On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials decreased, stainless - steel plants' production schedules decreased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [1] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [1] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On December 2nd, the closing price of the stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 95,108 lots, a decrease of 68,491 lots, and the open interest was 102,135 lots, a decrease of 6,334 lots [2] Price Spreads - The basis (spot - to - futures) of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active stainless - steel futures contract decreased by 20 yuan to 735 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the stainless - steel production schedule decreased in December, especially for the 300 - series [1] - On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak [1] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons [1] Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1] Indonesian Nickel - Related Commodities - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) showed that the prices of various nickel - related commodities in Indonesia had different trends. The prices of some products were stable, while others had small increases. For example, the average price of 1.2% - grade nickel ore (CIF) was 22 US dollars/ton, remaining the same as the previous period, and the average price of 1.6% - grade nickel ore (CIF) was 52.5 US dollars/ton, also stable. The price of downstream products such as NPI (high - grade, FOB) increased slightly by 0.03 US dollars to 109.61 US dollars/ton, and the price of high - grade nickel sulfate (FOB) increased significantly by 69 US dollars to 13,259 US dollars/ton [1] Inventory of Nickel and Stainless - Steel in China - The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 9790,000 wet tons in the week of November 28th, a decrease of 30,000 wet tons compared with the previous week [2] - The total inventory of stainless - steel in China was 935,300 tons in the week of November 28th, an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of 200 - series stainless - steel was 180,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons; the inventory of 300 - series was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons; and the inventory of 400 - series was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [2] Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [1] - For stainless - steel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.25% to 6829.37 points, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.59% to 23413.67 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.39% to 47474.46 points [1][2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.83%, with Intel surging over 8%, reaching a new high for the year [1][2] Sector Highlights - Semiconductor stocks generally saw an increase, with notable gains from NXP Semiconductors (over 7%) and Microchip Technology (over 6%) [2] - Boeing's stock rose over 10%, marking its largest single-day gain since April, following news that it could achieve a long-term cash flow target of $10 billion and that legal penalties from the U.S. Department of Justice may be delayed until 2026 [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. faced a downturn, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 0.65%. Key individual stocks like Xpeng and NIO saw declines of 7.92% and 2.9% respectively [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin rebounded by 6%, leading to a recovery in related stocks, although American Bitcoin, considered a "Trump concept stock," experienced a significant drop of over 50% and triggered multiple trading halts due to volatility [4][5] Federal Reserve Leadership - Speculation regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair intensified, with Kevin Hassett being identified as the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. There are expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting due to a weak labor market [6][7]

Group 1 - The core expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 86%, driven by solid economic data and policy signals, nearly doubling from 32.7% on November 20 [1][2] - Key factors supporting this expectation include inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target, a cooling job market with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, dovish statements from Fed officials, and signs of economic growth pressure [2][4] Group 2 - A critical week for the A-share market is approaching, with significant events from December 2 to December 9 that could reshape market expectations, including speeches from Fed officials and key economic data releases [4][5] - The most pivotal event will be the Fed's December meeting on December 9, which will determine whether to cut rates and provide guidance on monetary policy for 2026, impacting global liquidity pricing [5] Group 3 - If the Fed cuts rates, the primary impact on A-shares will be global liquidity easing and foreign capital inflow, benefiting several sectors [6] - The technology growth sector is expected to benefit from lower financing costs, particularly in semiconductors, AI, and new energy, with significant inflows into the electronic industry [6][7] - The resource cycle and gold sectors may also gain, as rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices, while gold becomes more attractive as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 4 - Domestic policy support is evident, with the People's Bank of China implementing rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, creating a favorable environment for foreign capital inflow [7] - Retail investors are advised to focus on key sectors, manage positions carefully, and avoid pitfalls such as blindly chasing high-flying stocks or ignoring policy risks [8][9] - The focus should be on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as leading electronic and new energy stocks, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks that offer dividends [8][9]

国际白银还是绝对强势，上一波在58.8下跌，最低在56.6，但周二的大范围震荡，还是走出上涨空间， 目前收盘在58.5附近，还是收在绝对强势的高价位。这个周期白银就不过分强调上涨空间，也不过分强 调回落力度，上方关注59压制在这两天的效果，关注周三，周四是否变盘，如果变盘的话，下方还是关 注56.5的支撑得失，所以，现在的白银行情宁可看高位震荡，而不是继续追多。 美元指数周三延续跌势，目前交投于99.20附近，跌幅约0.1%，此前已经连续六个交易日收跌。10年期 美债收益率周二触及近两周高点4.116%后回落，目前报4.079%，跌幅约0.27%。 俄罗斯总统外交政策助理乌沙科夫(Yuri Ushakov)周三表示，俄罗斯和美国未能就乌克兰和平达成妥 协，和平既没有更近一步，也没有变得更遥远。他指出，双方未能在最棘手的问题之一--领土争端上取 得妥协。 投资者也将关注本周计划公布的关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业数据，以及周五将公布的美联储首 选通胀指标--9月个人消费支出(PCE)指数。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 北京时间周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，国际白银窄幅震荡，现报58.47美元/盎司，涨幅0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is stabilizing around the 1.32 mark, influenced by the contrasting monetary policies of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside internal divisions within the BoE [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank of England's Policy and Inflation - The BoE's cautious stance is a key support for the GBP, with the latest CPI data showing a rise to 2.6% in November, the highest in eight months, and core CPI increasing from 3.3% to 3.5%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The BoE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% with a 6:3 vote, indicating that discussions on rate cuts are premature despite some members advocating for a 25 basis point reduction [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Shift to Easing - In contrast to the BoE, the Fed is moving towards a more accommodative policy, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% in November, signaling a cooling labor market [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have surged to 71%, with some institutions estimating the probability at 87% [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The BoE has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Q4 2024 from 0.3% to zero growth, highlighting concerns over high interest rates impacting consumption and investment [2] - Internal divisions within the BoE reflect a heated debate between prioritizing economic growth and controlling inflation, with potential trade risks from U.S. tariff policies posing further inflationary pressures [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has formed a support level at 1.3150, with multiple tests of this level followed by rebounds, indicating active buying interest [4] - Key resistance is identified in the 1.3250-1.3280 range, while support is anchored at 1.3150-1.3180, with critical upcoming events including the Fed's December meeting and UK inflation data [4]

北京时间周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，白银期货守住上一日涨幅继续攀升，现报13804.00元/千克，涨幅 2.31%，截至发稿沪银主力最高触及13828.00元/千克，最低下探至13430.00元/千克，目前来看，沪银主 力盘内短线偏向多头态势。 【要闻速递】 周二，金价下跌1%，主要受美国国债收益率上升和前一交易日金价达到六周高点后的一波获了结推 动。与此同时，白银从前一天创下的历史高点回落。美元在前一交易日跌至两周低点后出现反弹。 与此同时，受日本和欧洲政府债券疲软的影响，基准10年期美国国债收益率达到近两周高点。收益率的 上升使得黄金白银等无息资产的吸引力下降。 市场焦点正转向即将发布的经济报告，以寻找美联储下周议息会议可能做出的利率决定的进一步迹象。 这些关键报告包括周三公布的11月ADP就业数据和周五公布的9月个人消费支出指数。 在此之前，周一公布的数据证实，11月份美国制造业已连续第九个月收缩。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具，市场目前认为美联储在12月降息的可能性很高，有87%的可 能性。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银期现结构反转逐渐修复，供应短缺博弈降温，特朗普暗示美联储主席人选为哈塞特 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded in early Asian trading on Wednesday, ending a three-day decline, with current levels around 155.85, indicating some buying support at this position [1] - The rebound is primarily driven by investors adjusting their expectations for upcoming key U.S. economic data and reassessing the monetary policy paths of both the U.S. and Japan [1][7] - The U.S. dollar index showed a mild increase, influenced by overall risk appetite, but further strengthening may be limited due to potential changes in U.S. interest rate policy with Kevin Hassett being considered as a candidate for the next Fed Chair [3][5] Group 2 - Recent U.S. manufacturing PMI data fell below market expectations, reinforcing bets on a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December now close to 87%, up from about 63% a month ago [5] - The Bank of Japan's future policy direction is crucial for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing continued normalization of monetary policy if economic and inflation trends meet expectations [6][8] - Market focus will be on upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data, which will further reveal the economic situation and Fed policy direction, while Japan's inflation data will influence the timing of the BoJ's policy adjustments [7][8]