Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a notable increase of 11.96% in Q1 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index which declined by 1.21% [10][13]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant performance differentiation, with both precious and industrial metals leading in growth rates [10][13]. - The increase in metal prices is driven by supply constraints and heightened demand due to geopolitical factors, particularly U.S. tariffs impacting export dynamics [1][2][14]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 3550.42 billion CNY, down 7.81% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit increased by 22.34% to 194.36 billion CNY. The price rise is attributed to supply shortages and U.S. inventory hoarding [1][14]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector reported revenues of 1069.79 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.32% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 14.18% to 86.18 billion CNY, driven by lower alumina prices [1][28]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector achieved revenues of 1011.43 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a 19.07% increase quarter-on-quarter, with net profit rising by 13.92% to 48.30 billion CNY, supported by rising gold prices amid economic uncertainties [2][50]. Rare Earth Materials - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue decline of 25.45% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit down 18.55%. However, the price of praseodymium oxide showed a slight increase, indicating potential recovery in demand [2][59]. Minor Metals - The minor metals sector reported a revenue decrease of 3.95% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit down 7.23%. Prices for antimony and tin continued to rise, suggesting a focus on high-elasticity niche leaders [3][80]. Lithium - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues down 3% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. However, net profit turned positive at 22.1 billion CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability despite ongoing price declines [3][88]. New Materials - The new materials sector saw a revenue decline of 3.14% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit improved significantly, highlighting ongoing innovation and domestic substitution trends [3][89].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over $50 on May 1, marking a continuous downward trend due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid easing international trade tensions [1][4][6]. Group 1: Recent Price Movements - On May 1, spot gold prices fell to $3240.62 per ounce, a decrease of 1.45% [1][2]. - The price of gold has been on a downward trajectory for three consecutive days, with notable declines of 0.81% and 0.85% on the preceding days [4][6]. - The recent peak of gold prices reached $3500 per ounce, but the market is now adjusting following this high [6][10]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets as trade tensions appear to be easing, with the U.S. government indicating potential trade agreements [4][10]. - U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer mentioned that preliminary trade agreements could be announced soon, which may lead to reduced tariffs on trade partners [5][9]. - The market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to cautious optimism due to the U.S. administration's willingness to engage in trade negotiations [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, with the first quarter showing a contraction for the first time since 2022, attributed to a surge in imports and reduced government spending [9][10]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the personal consumption expenditure price index and the monthly non-farm payroll report [9][10]. - Despite the recent downturn, forecasts suggest that gold prices could rebound, with predictions of reaching $3590 per ounce by the end of the second quarter and $3800 by year-end [9][10].

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached a historical high in Q1 2025, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which were a key factor in the rise of gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Prices - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached $2860 per ounce, a 38% increase year-on-year [3]. - Total global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, grew by 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2016 [3]. - Gold recycling decreased by 1% year-on-year as consumers opted to hold onto their gold in anticipation of further price increases [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold ETF inflows surged, leading to a 170% year-on-year increase in total gold investment demand, reaching 552 tons, the highest since Q1 2022 [4][7]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 244 tons of gold in Q1, aligning with the normal quarterly purchase levels over the past three years [7]. - Demand for gold bars and coins remained high at 325 tons, exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 15% [7]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell to 125 tons in Q1, a 32% decline year-on-year, marking the weakest performance since 2020 [9]. - Despite the drop in volume, the monetary value of gold jewelry consumption increased by 9% year-on-year to $35 billion [7]. - The rising gold prices led consumers to shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products, while others chose to wait and see [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that gold prices will continue to be a critical factor influencing jewelry sales in China, with potential further declines in demand expected if prices remain high [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are likely to sustain strong investment demand for gold [16].

超配（维持） 交运板块新思 交通运输行业 交通运输行业深度报告 2025 年 4 月 30 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 申万交通运输指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 全球冲突新形势下交运板块的新篇章。近期全球冲突进入新形势，我们 认为，当前全球地缘政治关系的影响在交通运输板块的影响可能会表现 出以下两个主要方向：（1）全球不确定性上升可能加剧市场的避险情绪 需求；（2）全球需求下降的预期与OPEC+意外增产相叠加，可能导致原 油成本下降，从而刺激对油价敏感的运输行业。基于2025年全球经济新 形势的变化，我们在战略层面明确了稳健与进攻两大投资方向：（1）全 球不确定性提升或放大避险需求，强化公路等基础设施板块类债属性的 投资需求， ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the US Dollar Index and gold and silver prices is complex and non-linear, challenging traditional views of a simple inverse correlation, and providing new investment opportunities and challenges for investors in a volatile financial environment [1] Group 1: Theoretical Basis of Non-linear Relationship - The monetary attributes of gold and silver, along with their role as safe-haven assets, influence their demand and pricing in relation to the US Dollar Index [2][3] - Interest rates significantly impact both the Dollar Index and precious metal prices, with rising rates typically increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, yet market uncertainties can lead to increased demand for these metals despite rising rates [2] - Inflation expectations affect both the Dollar Index and gold and silver prices, with rising inflation often weakening the Dollar Index while boosting precious metal prices, although market dynamics can complicate this relationship [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Non-linear Relationship - Global economic conditions, including growth rates and economic cycles, can lead to simultaneous movements in the Dollar Index and gold and silver prices, particularly during economic downturns [4] - Geopolitical conflicts create market uncertainty, prompting investors to buy both the Dollar and precious metals, leading to simultaneous price increases [5] - Central bank policies, especially those of the Federal Reserve, play a crucial role in shaping the Dollar Index and precious metal prices, with policy uncertainty potentially leading to non-linear price movements [6] Group 3: Case Studies and Data - During the 2008 financial crisis, both the Dollar Index and gold prices rose significantly as investors sought safe-haven assets, breaking the traditional inverse relationship [7] - From 2011 to 2013, despite a rising Dollar Index, gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility and declines, illustrating the complex non-linear relationship influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors [8] Group 4: Implications for Investors - Investors should adjust their strategies to account for the non-linear relationship between the Dollar Index and precious metal prices, considering multiple factors rather than relying solely on the Dollar Index [9] - Enhanced risk management practices are essential, including setting stop-loss and take-profit points and diversifying investments across asset classes to mitigate risks associated with non-linear price movements [10] - A long-term investment perspective is recommended, as gold and silver retain their value as safe-haven assets despite short-term market fluctuations [10]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 2024 年 12 月 18 日美联储鹰派降息利空落地之后，金价在中国印度年底节日 消费旺季预期、特朗普 2.0 新政不确定性引发避险需求、美国经济短期滞涨风险 上升、特朗普交易热潮降温等因素影响下重新开始新一轮上涨，并重返 2024 年 3 月份以来的中级上涨通道；4 月初特朗普对等关税远超市场预期，金融市场大幅 波动导致投资者抛售包括黄金在内的金融资产，伦敦黄金一度在三个交易日内从 3168 美元/盎司调整至 2956 美元/盎司；而在市场波动性以及金融市场抛压逐步 减弱之后，来自全 ...

Group 1: US-China Tariff Negotiations - The US and China are currently in a stalemate regarding tariff negotiations, with no significant progress reported [1] - US President Trump claims negotiations are ongoing, while China officially denies any discussions on tariffs [1] - The US is attempting to sway hesitant countries by suggesting that even the strongest parties are yielding in negotiations [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - A recent report indicates that gold prices have been driven up by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a weakening dollar, and heightened global risk aversion since April [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with geopolitical instability and tariffs expected to sustain prices [4] - The report suggests that the recent downturn in US equities has led to increased asset allocation towards gold, making it a significant beneficiary of the current market conditions [4] - The analysis indicates a potential short-term price correction for gold due to overbought conditions, with a possible price range of $3000 to $2700 serving as important support [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The upcoming week may see reduced volatility due to non-farm payroll data and the Labor Day holiday, but the downward adjustment trend from 3500 has not concluded [7] - The market is expected to continue its downward trajectory, with targets set at 3230 and 3165, which are key Fibonacci retracement levels [7] - Short-term support for gold is identified at 765 to 752, with resistance at 790 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Tariff easing and the possibility of Russia - Ukraine negotiations may suppress gold prices, but due to tariff policy uncertainty, the continuous decline space of gold prices is limited after last week's sharp adjustment. Gold prices are expected to enter a high - level range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the May Day holiday and wait and see. The medium - long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. For silver, tariff negotiation expectations support its commodity attribute, and with some short - selling of gold - silver ratio configurations, silver is relatively resilient, but its upside space is limited due to economic downturn risks and the slowdown of physical demand [4]. - Medium - long - term: Against the backdrop of the global tariff trade war, the risk of economic recession increases, the Fed may cut interest rates in June, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and tariff policies will weaken the US dollar credit. Global central banks continue to buy gold, so gold still has medium - long - term allocation value, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On April 28, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.6%, London silver spot decreased by 1.9%, COMEX gold decreased by 0.6%, COMEX silver decreased by 2.0%, AU2506 decreased by 0.9%, AG2506 decreased by 1.4%, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.8%, and AG (T + D) decreased by 1.4% [3]. - Regarding spreads/ratios, from April 25 to April 28, 2025, the change rates of gold TD - SHFE active spread, silver TD - SHFE active spread, gold internal - external spread (TD - London), silver internal - external spread (TD - London), SHFE gold - silver main ratio, COMEX gold - silver main ratio, AU2508 - 2506, and AG2508 - 2506 were - 47.0%, 25.0%, - 7.4%, - 11.2%, 0.4%, 1.5%, - 8.7%, and - 4.8% respectively [3]. Position Data - From April 24 to April 25, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.03%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 4.72%, non - commercial short positions increased by 20.17%, net long positions decreased by 13.27%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.58%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 5.45%, and net long positions increased by 1.77% [3]. Inventory Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged (0.00% change), SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.17%. From April 24 to April 25, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.58%, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.03% [3]. Related Market Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.03%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.30%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.69%, VIX decreased by 6.16%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.74%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.64% [4]. News and Analysis - Trump said he would announce a trade agreement in the "next three to four weeks", and US officials have a template for tariff negotiations. Russia and the US envoy confirmed that Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine without pre - conditions [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, a year - on - year increase of 327.73%, reaching 138.21 tons by the end of March [4]. - On April 28, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.44% to 780.04 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.52% to 8168 yuan/kilogram [4].

在本周美国关键经济数据临近公布之际，黄金价格走低，这些数据可能揭示特朗普关税战所带来的影响。周二亚盘，现货黄金一度失守3310美元/盎司，日 内跌超1%。 周一，在经济数据不佳推动美国国债收益率走低的背景下，作为无息资产的黄金由跌转涨。与此同时，摩根大通表示，由于投资者在特朗普政策下持续抛售 美国资产，预计美元将迎来又一轮走弱。周一一美元下跌0.5%，这使得以美元计价的黄金对大多数买家来说黄金变得更便宜。 道明证券大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示："我们开始看到抛售耗尽的初步迹象"，并补充说黄金的下行风险极其有限。他说，"西方投资者，尤其是自由裁 量交易员或宏观基金，在黄金上涨的最后阶段完全处于仓位不足的状态，因此，抛售活动有限，金价正在走高反映了这一点。" 特朗普引发的贸易战激发了对黄金的避险需求，推动金价在近几个月接连创下历史新高，尽管自上周触及3500美元大关后有所回落。 美国总统声称与中国的关系已经取得了进展。然而，中方已经多次否认两国正在进行贸易谈判。 City Index和FOREX.com的市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada表示："在我们看到更低的高点和更低的低点，以及实打实的贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing attention of investors towards spot gold amid rising gold prices, highlighting the need for effective indices and indicators to assist trading decisions in a volatile market [1]. Group 1: Core Indices - The international spot gold price (XAU/USD) is the primary focus for investors, with prices expected to rise, potentially exceeding $2880 per ounce by February 2025 due to U.S. tariff policies, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks [3]. - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) includes 50 companies in the gold industry chain, showing a weekly increase of 6.24% in February 2025, with notable gains in stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Northern Copper exceeding 10% [4]. - Gold ETFs (518660, 159937) provide low-cost investment channels, with one fund (518660) having a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2% and a scale exceeding 1 billion, while another fund (159937) recorded a transaction volume of over 160 million in 2025, reflecting market sentiment [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is crucial, as gold typically has an inverse correlation with the dollar; expectations of interest rate cuts and rising inflation are driving demand for gold as a safe haven [7]. - Global central bank gold purchases reached a historic high of 4975 tons in 2024, with China's central bank continuously increasing its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [8]. - Geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and regional conflicts are increasing market demand for safe-haven assets, with current gold price increases being driven more by political instability than traditional factors like the dollar or interest rates [9]. Group 3: Technical Analysis Tools - Moving averages and trend lines can signal trend changes, with the gold ETF (159937) breaking through a resistance level of 6.478 yuan in February 2025 [10]. - Identifying support and resistance levels is essential, with strong support for gold prices observed in the $2500-$2600 per ounce range at the beginning of 2025, predicted to be the annual bottom [11]. - High turnover rates, such as the 27.7% turnover rate for gold industry ETFs, indicate market activity, and sudden changes in trading volume can help assess trend continuation or reversal [12]. Group 4: Platform Selection - Choosing a compliant trading platform is critical for effective index analysis and trade execution, with examples like Jinrong China, which holds an AA class license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and offers a transparent and secure trading environment [14]. Group 5: Summary of Investment Strategies - The gold market in 2025 presents both opportunities and risks, necessitating a comprehensive approach that includes core indices, macroeconomic factors, and technical indicators for strategy adjustments [15].