地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近3%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，升破4590美元大关，再创历史新高。 涨幅扩大至4%，价格继续位于83美元的历史高位水平，逼近历史新高。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 2小时 3小时 4小时 | 1月 3月 63.96 63.61 63.36 62.75 62.15 61.55 60.94 60.34 A 59.74 成交量 VOL: 0.000 400.00 ...

| 能源化工 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原 | | | | 59.61 | 63.85 | 57.81 | | +0.49 +0.83% +0.51 +0.81% -0.28 -0.48% | | | | INE原油 | | | | 437.7 | 3038 | 3.256 | | +11.9 +2.79% +40 +1.33% +0.087 +2.75% | | | 消息面上，全球地缘政治风险继续升温。 俄乌方面，据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间1月12日凌晨，乌克兰首都基辅响起强烈爆炸声。 此前，俄罗斯国防部11日通报称，过去一天，俄军对乌军工企业等目标实施了打击。乌克兰武 装部队总参谋部同一天通报称，对里海海域三座俄罗斯石油钻井平台实施了打击。 1月12日早盘，贵金属集体拉升。截至发稿， 现货黄金升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高；现货 白银涨幅扩大至2.79%。 现货铂金涨近3%，突破2320.00美元/盎司关口，最新报2327.80美元/盎 司。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 ...

伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温，现货黄金日内涨近1%，升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高。 白银涨幅扩大至2.7%，价格继续位于82美元的历史高位水平。 原油市场同样反应剧烈，布伦特原油和WTI原油双双涨超1%。数据显示，布伦特原油在经历了上周四和周五近6%的跳涨后，目前正逼近每桶64 美元关口，创下自10月以来的最大两日涨幅；WTI原油价格则维持在60美元附近。 市场焦虑的核心在于伊朗局势周末突变。当地时间1月11日，据央视新闻记者获悉，美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方 案，包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。另据新华社报道，特朗普将于13日与高级顾问会晤，专门讨论伊朗问题选项。 这一地缘政治风险盖过了此前市场对全球供应过剩的担忧。作为OPEC第四大产油国，伊朗近200万桶/日的原油出口面临中断风险，这直接改变了 投资者的预期。目前，市场正密切关注华盛顿方面的下一步决策以及德黑兰方面的应对措施。 避险买盘涌入 原油期权显露看涨信号 伊朗局势的动荡直接刺激了资金涌入大宗商品市场。油价已连续第三天上涨。 市场数据的变 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, but the labor market maintained resilience. The market's risk appetite remained high, and there is a high probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in January [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. Despite regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market showed strong momentum, and there is still upward momentum in the short term [2]. - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher on Friday. The US non - farm payroll data in December was mixed, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks are favorable for precious metals, but the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index is not yet over [3]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to domestic price adjustments and the weakening of the rupee, the actual total export volume is expected to be difficult to reach the official quota [4]. - After the potential merger of Rio Tinto and Glencore, they will dominate the global copper supply. The macro - optimistic sentiment has returned, pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [5]. - The number of US oil rigs has decreased, and oil prices have maintained a rebound trend. Concerns about Iranian supply have led to an increase in risk premiums [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is discussing response plans for Iran. Trump will hear a report on Iran - related response plans on Tuesday [11]. - The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December 2025, lower than the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, and hourly wages rose. The gold price was strong on Friday. The non - farm data was mixed, and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts changed little. Geopolitical risks made precious metals stronger, and short - term market volatility increased [12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the callback risk of precious metals in the short term [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatened Cuba to reach an agreement with the US quickly [14]. - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran, including sending a carrier strike group and launching cyber and information warfare [15]. - The non - farm data in December 2025 was below expectations. The market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. The labor market situation is conducive to the rise of market risk appetite, and the US dollar will maintain a short - term oscillatory trend [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will oscillate in the short term [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [20]. - The US consumer confidence index in January reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [21]. - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than expected. Although geopolitical risks are rising, they have not affected the risk appetite of the US stock market. The economic data is mixed, and the expectation of interest rate cuts remains restrained. It is expected that the US stock market will still operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but market volatility will increase [22]. - Investment advice: Expect the US stock market to experience increased volatility but maintain a bullish view [23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points, hitting a 10 - year high. The A - share market had heavy trading volume on Friday [24]. - The State Council deployed fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand. Although there are regulatory intentions to cool the market, the stock market is strong, and there is still upward momentum in the short term. Whether the regulatory authorities will introduce more powerful cooling measures is an important indicator [25]. - Investment advice: The long - holding strategy for stock indices is still dominant, and each index should be evenly allocated [26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan [27]. - The inflation data in December slightly exceeded market expectations. Domestic policies are actively addressing the supply - demand gap, and inflation is expected to rise. In an environment of rising inflation, the bond market is generally weak. It is not advisable to chase the high price, and short - selling hedging strategies can be considered [29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the high price; consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on January 9. The Indonesian government plans to cut coal production by about 17.2% in 2026. The supply tightening expectation makes miners reluctant to lower prices. However, the daily consumption is not good, and it is expected that the coal price will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in January [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory state in January, and a continuous rebound is unlikely [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger [33]. - In January, the downstream steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment has increased. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 tons per week in the next two weeks [33]. - Investment advice: The raw materials are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillatory state before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to policy changes. The inventory of finished products is at a moderate level, which restricts the upward space [34]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills has rebounded to 2.295 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have increased, while the profit rate has decreased [35]. - In 2025, China's new ship orders were 1,421, and the sales volume of excavators was 235,300. After the New Year's Day, the five major varieties of steel products began to accumulate inventory. The demand for rebar has decreased seasonally, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has remained resilient, but the inventory pressure is relatively high. The steel price trend is not clear in the short term [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices in the short term [39]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 10.3 million tons and may decrease to 10 million tons next year. As of January 7, Thailand's sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease [40]. - Indian sugar mills have signed contracts to export about 180,000 tons of sugar this season. Due to price and exchange - rate factors, some sugar mills are exporting at a loss. It is expected that India's actual sugar export volume will be difficult to reach the official quota. The upside of the external market is limited [42]. - Investment advice: In Guangxi, the sugar - pressing season is in full swing, and the new sugar supply is increasing. The upside of the futures market is limited. Pay attention to the actual stocking demand before the Spring Festival [43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 5.6% in 2025, but slightly missed the target [44]. - As of January 8, the national cotton processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. The US cotton export signing rate is still lagging. It is expected that the external market will remain in a low - level oscillatory state in the short term [45]. - Investment advice: Xinjiang's cotton - ginning factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream textile enterprises' demand for raw materials provides support for cotton prices, but the subsequent restocking demand is not strong. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate before the Spring Festival, with limited downside. The long - term outlook remains bullish [47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons [48]. - The oil market continued to oscillate, and palm oil rebounded slightly. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The situation of the China - Canada talks is uncertain [48]. - Investment advice: The palm oil price is expected to continue an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Pay attention to the January high - frequency data and Indonesia's palm oil export tax increase news [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the second week of 2026, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in the third week is 2.082 million tons. An auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans will be held on January 13 [50]. - The soybean meal futures price rose first and then fell. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly inventory report on January 12 [51]. - Investment advice: Continue to pay attention to the state reserve and customs policies. The supply - demand situation does not support a significant increase in the May contract of soybean meal unless there is a major abnormal reduction in South American production [51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in preliminary discussions about a potential merger, which may create a diversified mining giant and dominate the global copper supply. Recent copper prices have soared due to supply shortages [53]. - Chile's national copper production in November decreased by 3%. The production of some major mines also changed. The macro - optimistic sentiment is pushing up copper prices, but the short - term fundamentals are relatively weak, which may limit the increase [54]. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, continue to recommend buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, it is advisable to wait and see [56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products will be adjusted. It is expected that there will be a wave of rush - to - export in Q1 2026, but it is negative for demand in the whole year. The price of polysilicon may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in the short term [57]. - Investment advice: During the rush - to - export period, the polysilicon price may remain stable if the alliance exists. After the rush - to - export, the price may face pressure again [58]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in November 2025 was 93.7%. The supply and demand of industrial silicon need to pay attention to the demand side. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in January - February, and there may be significant inventory accumulation after March [59]. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The export tax rebate policy for battery products will be adjusted. It is expected to lead to a short - term rush - to - export, which is beneficial to lithium carbonate. The lithium salt price is expected to continue to rise. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, but the demand is not weak [61]. - Investment advice: Hold the previous long positions, and be cautious when opening new long positions [62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lunnon Metals has obtained the final approval for the Lady Herial gold - nickel open - pit mine. The futures market shows increased competition between industrial and speculative funds. The export tax rebate policy adjustment is beneficial to short - term nickel consumption. The overall price is likely to rise, and there may be a structural shortage of intermediates [63]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips. Continue to hold the positions of selling out - of - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options. Be cautious when chasing the high price, and closely monitor the quota release [64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.39/ton. The primary lead smelting operation was oscillating, and the secondary lead refinery's inventory reached a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. There is a risk of short - term price increase due to low inventory [66]. - Investment advice: Wait for opportunities to short on rallies. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage [67]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 8, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $42.57/ton. The Venezuela event may expand, and the zinc concentrate TC is expected to remain weak. The zinc demand is weak, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [68]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips in the short term. Wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage. The internal - external positive arbitrage has a good risk - return ratio, but it depends on the inflow of bonded - area inventory [69]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - In 2025, Shanghai's sales volume of trade - in goods exceeded 121.2 billion yuan. The market supervision department will accelerate the formulation of relevant national standards. The global tin inventory decreased last week, and the supply is uncertain. The demand is weak, and the high price suppresses consumption [70]. - Investment advice: It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the December customs data and the recovery of the consumption side [74]. 2.16 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 9, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 89.56 euros/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The EU carbon price continued to oscillate last week. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the short - term sentiment is still cautious [75]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate strongly in the short term [76]. 2.17 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased to 409 as of January 9. Oil prices rose in the second half of last week. The market is not overly worried about Venezuela's supply disruption, but concerns about Iran's supply have increased. Geopolitical risks may lead to a short - term increase in risk premiums, but the high export volume and potential inventory accumulation may suppress oil prices [77]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the risk premium of oil prices in the short term [78].

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 黄金在亚洲早盘上涨。现货黄金上涨0.7%，至4，541.80美元/盎司。媒体援引美国官员的话报道称，美 国总统特朗普定于周二听取有关回应伊朗抗议活动的具体选项的简报。与此同时，美国继续扣押运送受 制裁石油进出委内瑞拉的所谓影子油轮。盛宝银行的Ole Hansen在一封电子邮件中表示，与伊朗和委内 瑞拉相关的地缘政治风险升温，重振了对黄金的避险需求。这位大宗商品策略主管补充说："黄金、白 银和铂金今年开局强劲，反映了地缘政治对冲、资金流和结构性投资主题的综合影响。" 黄金在亚洲早盘上涨。现货黄金上涨0.7%，至4，541.80美元/盎司。媒体援引美国官员的话报道称，美 国总统特朗普定于周二听取有关回应伊朗抗议活动的具体选项的简报。与此同时，美国继续扣押运送受 制裁石油进出委内瑞拉的所谓影子油轮。盛宝银行的Ole Hansen在一封电子邮件中表示，与伊朗和委内 瑞拉相关的地缘政治风险升温，重振了对黄金的避险需求。这位大宗商品策略主管补充说："黄金、白 银和铂金今年开局强劲，反映了地缘政治对冲、资金流和结构性投资主题的综合影响。" 新浪合作 ...

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry market has initiated its first price increase of the year in early 2026, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook adjusting their prices due to rising costs [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased significantly, with a specific example of a gold bracelet's price rising from approximately 27,000 yuan to about 31,000 yuan, reflecting a price increase of around 14.8% [1] - The current market price for gold jewelry is approaching 1,400 yuan per gram, with reports indicating a daily increase of 10 yuan and a cumulative rise of at least 30 yuan within the week [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in domestic gold prices is primarily driven by the stabilization and rise of international gold prices, which have surpassed 4,500 USD per ounce as of January 9 [2] - Geopolitical risks and lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have led to increased investment in gold, supporting a bullish trend in international gold prices [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that continued U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and central banks' increased gold reserves will sustain demand in the physical gold market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is eager to restart oil production in Venezuela, controlling 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, but faces significant geopolitical uncertainties and investment risks that deter major oil companies from committing to the region [1]. Group 1: U.S. Government Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced plans to lift sanctions on oil sales from Venezuela, potentially as soon as next week, and is considering using Venezuela's frozen IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) for economic reconstruction [2]. - An emergency executive order was signed by President Trump to prevent U.S. courts from seizing oil revenue from Venezuela stored in U.S. Treasury accounts, indicating a strategy to control oil sales indefinitely [2]. Group 2: Oil Companies' Responses - Major oil companies remain cautious about large-scale investments in Venezuela, with executives expressing that the country is currently "not suitable for investment" without significant changes to local laws and business frameworks [3]. - ExxonMobil's CEO stated that Venezuela is "uninvestable" unless there are major legal reforms, while ConocoPhillips' CEO emphasized the need to discuss restructuring the entire energy system in Venezuela [3]. - Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela, but it has not committed to further investments despite the potential for short-term production increases [3]. Group 3: Financial Guarantees and Risks - Some oil executives have privately discussed seeking federal financial guarantees for expanding production in Venezuela, but Trump has indicated he will not make significant concessions regarding compensation for past losses [4]. - Trump emphasized that major oil companies would need to invest at least $100 billion without government funds, warning executives that there are others willing to take their place if they are not interested in investing [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook for Venezuela - Experts suggest that reviving the oil industry could cost hundreds of billions of dollars, which would not be sufficient to repair Venezuela's overall economy, which is burdened by heavy debt and ongoing crises [6]. - There is an urgent need for humanitarian aid and investment in non-profitable economic sectors, as the country faces severe infrastructure issues, including persistent power outages and water shortages [6]. - Given the current political instability, the prospects for Venezuela's oil industry and economy to recover in the short term appear bleak [6].

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry market has initiated its first price increase of the year in early 2026, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook raising prices due to rising costs [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased significantly, with a specific example of a gold bracelet's price rising from approximately 27,000 yuan to about 31,000 yuan, reflecting a price increase of around 14.8% [1] - The current price of gold per gram has approached 1,400 yuan, with reports indicating a daily increase of 10 yuan and a total rise of at least 30 yuan within the week [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in domestic gold prices is primarily driven by the stabilization and rise of international gold prices, which have surpassed 4,500 USD per ounce as of January 9 [2] - Geopolitical risks and lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have led to increased investment in gold, supporting a bullish trend in international gold prices [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that continued U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and central banks' increased gold reserves will sustain demand in the physical gold market [2]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 1.94% to $12,702.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.23% to 101,400 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 6.29% week-on-week, marking six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with total inventory up by 168,100 tons year-on-year [1][12] - The operating rate of the yellow copper rod industry decreased by 0.61% to 46.98%, while the enameled wire industry saw a decline of 0.66% in operating rate to 74.87% [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 2.22% to $3,088.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 6.13% to 24,300 yuan per ton [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.1%, indicating a mixed performance across different aluminum processing sectors [2][13] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.51% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.36% to $4,487.9 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 2 tons to 1,067.13 tons [3][14] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to a strong and volatile market for gold [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 2.90%, with November exports of rare earth permanent magnets rising by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [4][36] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support future demand and price increases in the rare earth sector [4][36] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 11.5% to 131,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 10.9% to 126,900 yuan per ton [4][60] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,500 tons, with a slight increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [4][60] Group 6: Cobalt - The price of cobalt in the Jiangxi market rose by 1.1% to 460,000 yuan per ton, with cobalt intermediate prices also showing slight increases [5][63] - The overall cobalt market remains strong, with supply tightness expected to continue, supporting price stability [5][63] Group 7: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 1.8% to $17,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 4.3% to 138,000 yuan per ton [5][64] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, leading to price increases [5][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise in geopolitical risks has led to increased uncertainty, causing precious metals, especially gold, to surge. However, short - term factors such as index rebalancing and margin adjustments may lead to price fluctuations, and the short - term decline risk should be noted. The medium - and long - term bull market pattern remains unchanged [1][2][3] - It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - position allocations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.39 yuan/gram, a change rate of 12.3%. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 11.94 yuan/gram, a change rate of - 289.0%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 51 kg, a change rate of - 0.1%. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 91,052 ounces, a change rate of - 0.25%. SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 0.57 tons, a change rate of - 0.05%. CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 2,617 lots, a change rate of - 2.1%. The U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.01%, a change rate of - 0.2%. The U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate increased by 0.0219%, a change rate of 0.97%. The S&P 500 index increased by 108 points, a change rate of 1.6%. The VIX volatility index remained unchanged, a change rate of - 0.1%. The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.1, a change rate of - 1.3%. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.05%, a change rate of - 2.4% [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.64%. Oil prices rose 7.3%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.23%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%, and the U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.03%, and the VIX index was 14.5 [16][18] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.57%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%. Real interest rates dropped slightly to 1.88%, and the gold price rose 4.1%. The spot commodity index closed up, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%. U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.3%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.37%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.09%. The euro depreciated 0.7%, the pound depreciated 0.39%, the yen depreciated 0.67%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.11%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.72% to 99.1, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [21][24][26][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR Gold ETF holdings dropped slightly to 1064 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 56.2 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: G7 Finance Meeting; Tuesday: U.S. December CPI, Japan closed for a day; Wednesday: China's December import and export data, U.S. November retail sales; Thursday: Federal Reserve Beige Book; Friday: U.S. January NAHB Housing Market Index [38]