Group 1 - International silver regained momentum, trading above $38 after a previous three-week high, supported by a weaker dollar ahead of U.S. consumer inflation data [1] - The U.S. announced significant military aid to Ukraine, including the "Patriot" air defense system, which is seen as a key variable in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Trump's military aid strategy marks a shift from Biden's direct assistance, requiring European allies to purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, while threatening severe sanctions against Russia if agreements are not reached within 50 days [2][3] Group 2 - Increased military aid and potential sanctions against Russia may escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to heightened market risk aversion, which could support gold and silver prices in the short term [3] - If negotiations between Russia and Ukraine progress, reduced geopolitical risks may lead to a decrease in safe-haven demand, potentially causing a pullback in silver prices [4] - Technical analysis indicates that international silver prices have shown three consecutive days of gains, breaking through the $38.80-$39.30 range, although a recent drop to $38.30 has created a "high fall" pattern [5] Group 3 - Support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60, $39.00, and $40.00 [6]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对欧盟和加拿大对等关税税率定于 30%， 关税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求，但美元指数走强对贵金属有抑制作用， 伦敦黄金小幅上行至 3370 美元/盎司附近；7 月中旬以来投机资金再次拉升白银 至 39 美元/盎司上方，目前伦敦金银比值已经回落到 86，年内白银涨幅 35%远超 黄金的 28%，但上海白银相对滞涨。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波 ...

银价上涨的背后是现货市场供应紧张和借贷成本激增。一个月期银价借贷的隐含年化成本已跳升至6%以上，远高于通常接近零的水平。 美国贸易政策担忧也进一步推高了银价，墨西哥作为最大的银生产国和美国市场的关键供应商，面临高达30%的关税威胁。此外，作为避险资产 和工业用金属，银价受益于地缘政治冲突、贸易紧张局势以及太阳能板等工业需求的推动。 现货市场供需失衡加剧 银价攀升至近十四年高位，投资者在金价接近历史纪录的背景下寻求替代性贵金属投资。 周一，现货白银延续了上周4%的涨势，日内一度上涨1.9%，突破每盎司39美元至近十四年高位，今年以来累计涨35%，超过黄金28%的涨幅。 银价需求目前受益于贸易战威胁，以及黄金价格对许多投资者来说过于昂贵。 墨西哥面临的关税威胁尤其引人关注。据央视新闻，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输 美产品征收30%的关税。 作为全球最大的银生产国，墨西哥是美国市场的关键供应商。尽管《美墨加协定》暂时将银价排除在关税清单之外，但市场担心这一豁免可能不 会持续。 伦敦现货价格与纽约9月期货合约之间的价差异常宽泛，类似于年初特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. Shanghai Silver futures are in a sideways trend, also at the end of the trend. For both gold and silver, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices of gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as trade policies, the US dollar index, and industrial demand [7][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: US tariff policies have raised concerns about global economic recession and supply chain disruptions, increasing gold's safe - haven demand. Although the rising US dollar index suppresses gold prices, the strong demand for gold shows concerns about the US dollar's credit. The overall inflow of funds into gold ETFs is still strong, and central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, have continuously increased their gold holdings. The reduced expectation of a July interest rate cut and the increased expectation of a September cut also support gold prices [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct grid trading in the range of 760 - 782 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is sideways, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: The increase in trade concerns last week boosted silver's safe - haven demand. The repair logic of the gold - silver ratio, the weakening US dollar index, and geopolitical tensions support silver from a financial perspective. The continuous growth of silver demand in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries strengthens its fundamentals. However, the industrial nature of silver may limit its price increase if the risk of global economic recession intensifies [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8800 - 8900 [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report shows data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver's internal - external price difference [39][41][43].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices are rising significantly, reaching the highest level since 2011, driven by market concerns over potential U.S. tariff policies and a shift of investors from gold to silver due to its relative undervaluation [1][4] - Silver has seen a cumulative increase of 35% this year, outperforming gold's 28% rise, highlighting its dual role as a safe-haven asset and an industrial raw material [1] - The current market tension is reflected in trading details, with one-month silver implied borrowing costs soaring above 6%, indicating tightening physical silver supply [4] Group 2 - The widening price gap between London spot silver and New York September futures contracts is reminiscent of earlier this year when concerns over U.S. tariffs led to increased transportation of gold and silver from London to the U.S. [4] - The silver market fundamentals support price increases, with the Silver Institute reporting a five-year trend of supply shortages, driven by growing demand in renewable energy sectors like solar panels [4] - Market expectations suggest that silver prices will continue to be supported by trade policy uncertainties and increasing demand for new energy [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On July 14, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 778.16 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.64% [1] - The opening price for the day was 777.62 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 781.18 CNY and a low of 776.24 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Economic Factors - Trump's "big and beautiful" plan has passed, potentially exacerbating the U.S. debt issue and leading to cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility, highlighting gold's de-dollarization attributes [2] - In a global high-interest rate environment, gold's role as a zero-yield asset is diminishing, and its sensitivity to U.S. Treasury real interest rates is decreasing [2] - Geopolitical risks have slightly decreased, but Trump's tariff policies are intensifying global trade tensions, maintaining market demand for safe-haven assets, which is a significant factor in driving up gold prices [2] - There has been a notable increase in physical gold demand in China, with the central bank resuming gold purchases since November last year, continuing for eight consecutive months [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - In the context of high interest rates and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being driven by central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [3] - The logic behind the current rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate and tariff policies acting as short-term disturbances; a more cautious interest rate policy is expected this year [3] - The evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate changes in market risk sentiment, with recent U.S. labor market data showing resilience, as non-farm employment exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [3] - Core PCE inflation data indicates resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing market expectations, while overall PCE inflation matched expectations at 2.3% [3] - The latest tariff measures by Trump have escalated the trade war, leading to a resurgence in market risk sentiment, which supports gold prices [3]

·银河期货：预计贵金属下方的支撑仍强将延续偏强走势 ·国投期货：风险情绪可能反复贵金属震荡为主 ·东海期货：黄金中长期支撑逻辑坚实未改 ·东海期货认为，金价在政策预期摇摆与避险情绪反复中维持震荡。特朗普威胁对金砖国家加征新关税 一定程度激发避险买盘，支撑贵金属上行，但美元技术性反弹叠加美债收益率上行压制金价涨幅。美联 储6月会议纪要显示内部分歧，黄金波动率有所上升。受有色共振影响，白银相对强势运行，金银比显 著修复。短期市场主要扰动因素仍为关税政策，白银受有色共振影响短期偏强。中长期支撑逻辑坚实未 改，"大而美法案＂推升财政赤字加速美元信用消耗，地缘不确定性及经济放缓预期则巩固黄金配置价 值。本周重点关注美国CPI数据及后续美联储官员发言，以判断下一步政策路径。 ·RJO Futures高级市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis指出，除非地缘政治局势出现重大升级，否则金价短期内难 以突破每盎司3400美元的关口，预计将维持区间震荡格局。这一判断反映了当前市场对黄金的谨慎乐观 态度，避险需求为金价提供了支撑，但美元和美债收益率的上行压力不容忽视。 ·盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管Ole Ha ...

中国基金报记者李智 【导读】上纬新材开盘1秒钟直接封上涨停板，涨幅达20%；贵金属概念股震荡拉升，电力股集体走高 新的一周开始了，一起来看下最新的市场情况及资讯。 7月14日早盘，A股三大指数集体高开，随后震荡调整。截至发稿，沪指涨0.35%，深成指跌0.14%，创业板指跌0.67%。 板块上来看，贵金属概念股震荡拉升，电力股集体走高，多元金融、稳定币、房地产等板块震荡调整。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PEEK材料 | 锂矿 | 火电 | 铜产业 | 宇树机器人 | 患金属 | 钢铁 | 石油天然气 | 电力 | 化纤行业 | | 5.06% | 3.71% | 2.95% | 2.42% | 2.12% | 1.98% | 1.37% | 1.30% | 1.28% | 1.14% | | 特高压 1.75% | 減速器 1.72% | 大基建央企 1.62% | 盐湖提锂 1.56% | 维生素 1.51% | 软饮料 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing strong demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, particularly following Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1 [2][4] - Gold prices have shown resilience despite rising US Treasury yields, with prices breaking through key technical resistance levels and approaching the $3400 mark [2] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with support levels identified at $3340-$3330 and resistance at $3375-$3385 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market is currently sensitive to geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies, with Brent crude trading around $68.14 per barrel [5] - Despite pressures from Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's demand adjustments, rising gasoline demand and global flight activity provide some support for oil prices [5] - Technical analysis indicates a potential high-level consolidation for oil prices, with short-term resistance at $70.5-$71.5 and support at $67.0-$66.0 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by a combination of strong U.S. labor market data and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policies, leading to a high volatility environment for silver prices [3]. Group 1: Silver Price Movement - As of July 11, 2025, the spot silver price is trading at $37.43 per ounce, with a daily range between $36.87 and $37.48 [1][2]. - The opening price for silver today was $36.99 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data has shown strong performance, with initial jobless claims dropping to 227,000, indicating a robust labor market [3]. - The expectation for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly due to these labor market indicators [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Silver is currently experiencing dual influences: inflows of safe-haven funds and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which are limiting bullish positions in silver [3]. - Trade tensions, particularly Trump's new tariff threats, including a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, are adding to economic uncertainty and potential inflation concerns [3]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is suggested, with a focus on maintaining long positions if silver stabilizes around the $36.8 level and breaks above $37.2, targeting $37.5 [4].