近期，黄金市场在特朗普反复无常的关税政策冲击下，率先从先前的短期调整中恢复。关税对黄金价格 的利空风险，主要在于海外资产共振大跌带来的流动性挤兑，流动性冲击修复后，市场开始定价中长期 关税对经济的影响。 周二（4月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于3336美元/盎司附近，金价周一逆转跌势上涨，因出现低吸 买盘。黄金期货方面，COMEX黄金期货交投于3342美元/盎司附近。美元周一全线下滑，也给金价提供 支撑，投资者谨慎等待美国贸易政策的进一步消息，并准备迎接一周密集的经济数据，这些数据可能初 步表明特朗普的贸易摩擦是否正在产生影响。美元走软以及国际贸易紧张局势对经济影响的不确定性刺 激了避险需求。 ETF方面，黄金ETF基金(159937) 高开高走涨超1%，成交额已超2亿元。拉长时间来看，截至4月28日， 黄金ETF基金近1年累计涨幅近40%，最新规模达292.75亿元。 据中国黄金协会统计，一季度，我国增持黄金12.75吨，截至3月底，我国黄金储备为2292.33吨；国内原 料产金87.243吨，同比增长1.49%；我国黄金消费量290.492吨，同比下降5.96%；国内黄金ETF持仓增长 23.47吨，同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the spot gold price has fallen below $3,330, suggesting a decrease in safe-haven demand, and upcoming data may serve as a market indicator [1] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices reflects a broader trend in the market, where investors may be shifting their focus away from traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The article suggests that the upcoming data releases could influence market sentiment and potentially lead to further fluctuations in gold prices [1]

Core Insights - The domestic gold market in China has shown significant growth in transaction volume and value in Q1 2025, driven by various factors across production, consumption, market activity, and policy changes Production Insights - Gold production in China has steadily increased, with companies optimizing resource utilization and accelerating overseas expansion. Major gold mining projects are advancing, and large gold groups are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions. In Q1 2025, overseas gold production reached 18.485 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14% [1] Consumption Insights - There is a structural divergence in gold consumption, with investment demand surging while jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices. Traditional gold and lightweight gold jewelry are in high demand, particularly among younger consumers. Investment in gold bars and coins has significantly increased due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability [2] Market Activity Insights - The gold market in China has experienced heightened trading activity, with substantial increases in both transaction volume and value. In Q1 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, and a transaction value of 10.7 trillion yuan, up 42.85%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a trading volume of 55,400 tons, a 91.17% increase, and a transaction value of 30.52 trillion yuan, up 143.69%. Additionally, domestic gold ETF holdings grew by 23.47 tons, a staggering year-on-year increase of 327.73% [3] Policy Insights - The Chinese government has reinforced the asset allocation properties of gold, with recent policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold. This has led to the first insurance fund gold investment transaction under the new framework, injecting new vitality into the gold market [4] Investment Logic Insights - The surge in gold ETF holdings is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets, expectations of loose monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, a weakening dollar, and heightened investment interest. Factors such as international trade tensions and geopolitical risks have amplified the need for safe-haven investments [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]

张尧浠：金价震荡偏弱调整、待回踩30日线支撑看涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金冲高回落，收取巨长上影线倒垂见顶形态，对于后市来讲，有着进一步回调的预期，但基本面上，看涨前景仍具动力，故此，如 继续走低，也仍然可再度依托回撤10周均线支撑看涨攀升。不过，日图及4小时级别也有反弹走强的倾向，因而，也仍需留意阻力压制的突破情况。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于3332.66美元/盎司，在先行走强拉升于周二触及3500美元历史高点后，遇阻回撤，大幅跳水，周三虽一度低开60美金并随 后收复缺口，但多头动力未能再度走强，并再度走低录得当周低点3260.18美元，周四虽受到支撑买盘反弹走强，但也未能突破阻力压制转强，使得周五 仍有卖盘需求，而仍表现走低，最终收于3314.08美元(收价有差别，以自己操作盘为准)，周振幅239.82美元，相对于开盘价收跌18.58美元，跌幅0.56%。 相对于前周收盘价3326.62美元，收跌12.54美元，跌幅0.38%。 影响上，周初受到美元走软以及贸易紧张局势对经济影响的不确定性，特朗普再度催促鲍威尔降息，以及美国将对从东南亚四国进口的太阳能产品加征新 关税等影响，投资者对美国经济的信心再 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased demand for gold bars, with investors seeking to hedge against market volatility and potential losses [4][10]. Price Movements - On April 23, the London spot gold price fell below $3,300, but rebounded to $3,349.09 by April 25 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have not shown an upward trend despite international price recovery, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang pricing at 1,038 CNY per gram [2][3]. Market Demand - There has been a surge in demand for gold bars, with reports of stock shortages in wholesale markets [4][8]. - Retailers have increased the margin requirements for purchasing investment gold bars due to price volatility and supply-demand imbalances [5][6]. Investment Products - Banks are increasing their allocation to gold in wealth management products, with a focus on "gold-themed" offerings [12]. - Two main types of gold-related investment products are being offered: "fixed income plus" products with limited gold exposure and structured products linked to gold derivatives [12][13]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that gold remains in a long-term upward trend, supported by market risk aversion, inflation concerns, and strong central bank demand [14]. - Institutions like Goldman Sachs view recent price corrections as buying opportunities, indicating a shift from dollar assets to gold as a safe haven [15].

Core Viewpoint - The "Investment Blue Book: China Investment Development Report (2025)" predicts a continued rise in international gold prices and a potential increase of over 10% in the CSI 300 index, with the Shanghai Composite Index possibly reaching 4000 points by 2025 [1] Group 1: A-Share Market - The report assigns a five-star rating to A-shares, recommending an overweight position due to improving economic conditions and capital market reforms [1] - A-shares are expected to gradually recover from a period of stagnation, driven by enhanced investor confidence [2] - Current A-share valuations are considered low, with expectations for stability around the central level and potential for further increases as market confidence grows [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - The report provides ratings for various asset classes: A-shares (five stars, overweight), Chinese bonds (three stars, maintain), private equity (four stars, overweight), international gold (four stars, overweight), international oil (three stars, maintain), and the US dollar index (three stars, maintain) [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors such as new productivity (including semiconductors, smart manufacturing, and AI), consumption, and biomedicine, along with high-dividend sectors [2] Group 3: Gold Prices - The report indicates that central banks' continued purchases of gold are a significant factor driving international gold prices higher [2] - It anticipates that international gold prices will continue to rise in 2025, while also noting potential pressures from high-level fluctuations and adjustments [2] - The report highlights that current gold prices may not be particularly high compared to rising global inflation expectations and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surged past $3480 per ounce, marking a historic high driven by strong market sentiment and various global factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Geopolitical conflicts and trade wars have led to a surge in safe-haven demand for gold, with global ETF inflows reaching $21 billion in Q1 2025, the second-highest on record [3]. - A crisis of confidence in the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping to 99.34, has contributed to a de-dollarization trend, further supporting gold prices [3][4]. - Technical and funding dynamics have created a short squeeze, with COMEX gold futures open interest increasing by 18% and speculative net long positions reaching 67% [4]. - Young investors, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, now account for over 70% of gold purchases, favoring lightweight products and driving a "fashion investment" trend [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the bullish trend, there are emerging risk signals, including potential technical corrections and warnings from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and interest rate policies [6]. - Institutional views are polarized, with bullish forecasts from firms like UBS and Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $3500-$3700, while Morgan Stanley warns of a potential correction to the $2800-$3200 range [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that geopolitical risks and a weak dollar may push gold prices towards $3500, but caution is advised due to overbought conditions [7]. - In the medium to long term, trends such as de-dollarization and economic uncertainties related to the US elections and stagflation risks are expected to support gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential challenge to $3700 if unemployment exceeds 5% [7].

今日， A 股市场延续近期震荡格局，三大指数涨跌不一，两市成交额 维持 万亿元 以上 。 一、指数表现： 各大指数继续分化 在黄金与贵金属板块，由于国际金价突破 3500 美元 / 盎司创历史新高， 四川黄金、西部黄 金 等相关个股上涨，反映出市场避险需求显著。 然而，市场并非普涨格局。算力与 AI 应用板块表现弱势，英维克 因业绩 跌停， AI 软件类板 块回调，反映资金从高估值科技股撤离。 消费电子板块受美股科技股拖累，立讯精密跌 3% ，板块整体承压。这些板块的下跌，一方面 是由于前期涨幅较大，存在回调需求；另一方面，也与市场对科技行业的盈利预期和宏观环境 变化有关。 三 、调整动因：获利回吐与内外压力并存 今日市场下跌的原因主要有以下几点： 一是科技成长 板块前期 积累了较大涨幅， 获利盘回吐压力较大，如算力与 AI 应用等板块， 在缺乏新的重大利好刺激下，资金选择落袋为安。 二是宏观经济数据及政策预期的不确定性， 尽管部分政策对部分板块有明显刺激，但整体市场 对于经济复苏的节奏和力度仍存在担忧，这使得投资者在配置上更为谨慎。 今日， A 股市场 继续 呈现出指数分化。截至收盘，沪指低开高走，最终收涨 ...

很高兴你能刷到这个帖子，投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续 赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运气，在市场上能活着的 肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的 交易=良好的心态控制＋正确的仓位控制＋过硬的技术功力，合作从不强买强卖。孙天翊语录：（机会 是留给有准备的人，一次正确的选择大于百倍努力， 你相信老师，我给你一个满意收益，你刚好需 要，我刚好专业）！ 周二（4月22日）亚市早盘，现货黄金继续冲高，一度刷新历史高点至3444.26美元/盎司。金价周一大 涨近3%，升穿3400美元，最高触及3430.43美元/盎司，收报3424.95美元/盎司，美元走软以及国际贸易 紧张局势对经济影响的不确定性刺激了避险需求。美元跌至三年来的最低水平，因特朗普总统对美联储 主席鲍威尔的评论再次打击了投资者对美国经济的信心。周一美元指数下跌0.89%，收报98.35，盘中最 低曾触及97.93，为2022年3月31日以来新低。本交易日经济数据相对较少，但将有多位美联储官员将发 表讲话，投资者需要重点关注。 留 ...

来源：新世纪期货 作者：新世纪期货 在地缘扰动和高利率环境下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金为核心央行 购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。货币属性方面，债务问题导致美元的货 币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金的去法币化属性凸显。 研报正文 【橡胶】 全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为67.44%，环比增加0.23%，同比减少3.62%。近期各企业多根据自身库存 情况灵活调整排产，整体样本企业产能利用率以小幅波动为主。 库存：本周青岛港口库存小幅回落，而社会库存小幅回升，目前仍处于逆季节性的累库周期中，国内的 进口压力不大。宏观来看，海外关税政策进入情绪消化末期，市场恐慌一定程度缓解，但基本面缺乏利 好刺激，橡胶价格短期预期震荡偏弱运行。 【螺纹钢】 月初关税冲击落地，但总量降准降息工具仍未发力，市场对未来谨慎心态，基差逐步走扩。螺纹目前处 于中性估值水平，短流程谷电利润也逐步进入亏损，成本支撑加强。五大材供需双增，库存继续回落。 受反倾销和关税影响，出口面临下滑，板材需求降幅增大，螺纹需求继续回升，逐步靠近去年同期水 平。后续下游需求下滑是事实，特别是出口雪上加霜。4 ...