Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of multilateralism in addressing global issues and advocates for a fair and just global governance system [1] Group 1: Multilateralism and Global Governance - Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, highlighted the need to uphold and practice multilateralism as a solution to global problems [1] - The expanded "BRICS" should continue to promote shared development and maintain the basic norms of international relations, defending the multilateral trade system [1] - The call for a more equitable and reasonable global governance system is central to the discussions [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Global Dynamics - Wang Yi addressed the challenges posed by the U.S. using tariffs globally, urging countries to make choices about whether to allow a return to a "survival of the fittest" scenario or to support a multipolar world [1] - The response to trade wars is clear: China is prepared to engage in negotiations based on equality and respect, while also standing firm in its rights and the common interests of all nations [1] - The emphasis is placed on not only protecting national dignity but also ensuring the integrity of international rules and cooperation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，全球范围的经济学家们当前正在密切关注将于周五发布的美国4月非农就业数据报告，一些经济学家警告称美国劳动力市场可能因特朗 普政府掀起的关税战役而出现剧烈动荡，进而使得金融市场对于美联储将在6月份开启今年首次降息的概率大幅增长。特朗普关税政策点燃的新一轮全球贸 易战，令美国乃至全球经济增长前景愈发暗淡。经济学家们普遍预计，美国总统特朗普发动的全球贸易战将抬高全球价格、削弱消费者支出，进而有可能 在今年和明年大幅冲击劳动力市场，最终将美国经济推入衰退。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克近日表示，如果到6月经济数据能提供明确方向，美联储可能在6月采取行动。货币政策立场长期偏向鹰派的美联储理事沃勒近日 立场持续转向鸽派，多次强调如果特朗普政府实施的高额关税措施迫使美国企业更大规模裁员，届时他将支持降息，以保护美国劳动力市场。 虽然特朗普政府在"解放日"之后不久因美国股债汇三市持续暴跌而宣布对部分最严厉的"对等关税"实施了长达90天的暂缓期限，在此期间对于除中国以外 绝大多数国家的基准关税均调整至10%，但据彭博经济研究团队的预测，美国的"有效关税税率"目前接近23%——为一个多世纪以来的最高水平。这已经对 美 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-04-30 【重要资讯】 1、ITS 及 AMSPEC 预计马棕 4 月前 10 日出口增加约 20%-50%，预计 4 月前 15 日环增 13.5%-17%，前 20 日出口环增 11.9%，前 25 日预计环增 14.75%。SPPOMA 高频数据显示马棕 4 月前 15 日产量环增 3.97%， 前 20 日产量环增 9.11%，UOB 及 MPOA 则给出前 20 日环增 16%以上预估。 2、新闻报道先进生物燃料协会与 EPA 官员会面，敦促 EPA 将 2026 年的 RVO 提高至 57.5 亿加仑，而目 前的义务量为 33.5 亿加仑。2024 年美国生产了近 49 亿加仑先进生物燃料。 马棕受美国关税 ...

Summary of Zhuhai Guanyu Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhuhai Guanyu - **Industry**: Battery manufacturing, focusing on consumer and power battery segments Key Points Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Zhuhai Guanyu reported revenue of 2.498 billion yuan, a slight decline year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 24 million yuan, compared to a profit of 9 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5][42] - The overall performance was impacted by a seasonal downturn in consumer electronics and a decrease in prices due to falling upstream material costs [5][42] Business Segments - **Consumer Battery Segment**: - Q1 2025 consumer battery shipments were approximately 80 million units, flat year-on-year, with a self-supply rate of about 40% [5] - The company expects Q2 shipments to grow by 40%-50% quarter-on-quarter, with an annual target of 120 million units [6] - **Power Battery Segment**: - Revenue in Q1 2025 was around 400 million yuan, more than doubling year-on-year, driven primarily by the Zhikang and drone businesses [5][6] - The power segment is expected to generate 600 million yuan in Q2, with annual revenue projected to be double that of the first half [6][29] Growth Drivers - The start-stop battery business is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, with significant orders from domestic and international clients [7] - The drone business, primarily serving DJI, is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in total revenue this year, also doubling year-on-year [7][33] Technological Advancements - The company is making progress in smart wearable devices and robotics, leveraging its soft-pack technology and small battery solutions for advantages in energy density and weight [8] - The company aims to capture 30% of the smartphone battery market, up from the current 8%-10%, through technological iterations [3][35] Margin and Cost Management - Q1 gross margin declined due to seasonal factors, increased contribution from lower-margin businesses, and lagging cost pass-through from export tax adjustments [11][12] - The company expects improvement in margins in Q2 as production ramps up and costs stabilize [11] International Expansion - The construction of a factory in Malaysia is progressing well, expected to be operational within 1 to 1.5 years, which will help mitigate export costs to the U.S. due to lower tariffs [9][13][14] - The company is also exploring opportunities in Mexico and India, although these facilities are smaller in scale [13] Market Trends and Customer Demand - The company is well-positioned to meet domestic demand despite trade tensions, with a focus on local suppliers [10][9] - The demand for high-capacity batteries is increasing, with a trend towards larger batteries (6,000 to 7,000 mAh) in the market [36] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for Q2 and the full year, expecting significant growth driven by domestic demand and new product launches [6][43] - The focus will remain on enhancing market share in both consumer and power battery segments while managing costs effectively [46] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from fluctuating material prices and the impact of export tax policies, which it is addressing through strategic cost management and communication with clients [24][25] Conclusion - Zhuhai Guanyu is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on growth in both consumer and power battery segments, leveraging technological advancements and international expansion to enhance its competitive position. The outlook for the upcoming quarters remains optimistic, supported by strong demand and strategic initiatives.

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 2025年04月30日 | 对二甲苯：成本坍塌，加工费扩张 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：驱动有限格局下震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：原油回撤，轻仓过节 | 9 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 11 | | PP：价格震荡，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 16 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 18 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 20 | | 尿素：节前宽幅震荡，注意仓位管理 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：原油大幅下跌，结构继续走强 | 27 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 30 | | 燃料油：日盘下跌，重回弱势 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下跌，外盘高低硫价差收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：近月承压运行，10-12反套轻仓持有 | 33 | | 短纤：短期反弹，节前控制仓位 | 37 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite exceeding market expectations in Q1, Snap has withdrawn its Q2 revenue guidance due to economic fluctuations caused by tariff policies impacting advertising demand [1][3]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - Snap reported Q1 revenue of $1.36 billion, slightly above the analyst average expectation of $1.35 billion [5]. - The total number of advertising clients increased by 60% year-over-year, with direct response ads accounting for 75% of Snap's advertising revenue, marking a historical high [5]. - The net loss for Q1 was $140 million, which is more than a 50% reduction compared to the same period last year [5]. - Snap's subscription product, Snapchat+, has reached 15 million paid users, a 59% year-over-year increase, while monthly active users have reached 900 million, moving closer to the target of 1 billion [5]. Group 2: Q2 Outlook and Economic Impact - Snap has declined to provide a revenue forecast for Q2, citing macroeconomic "headwinds" affecting its advertising business [1][3]. - The CFO, Derek Andersen, indicated that some advertisers are reducing spending due to changes in the tariff exemption rules for small packages under $800, which are impacting advertising demand [3]. - The modification of the tariff rules is expected to affect not only Snap but also other major companies like Google and Meta Platforms, which are likely to confirm similar impacts on their advertising businesses [4]. Group 3: Cost Management and Future Plans - In addition to withdrawing the Q2 revenue guidance, Snap has lowered its full-year adjusted operating expense target by $50 million, from a range of $2.65 billion to $2.7 billion [5]. - Andersen mentioned that this adjustment may influence the company's hiring plans for the remainder of the year, as approximately two-thirds of the annual adjusted operating expenses are related to personnel costs [5].

Group 1 - International oil prices have declined significantly due to concerns over supply and demand in the oil market, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a decrease of 2.63%, and Brent crude oil futures falling by $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a decrease of 2.44% [1] - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank highlighted that ongoing trade wars are likely to harm demand, increasing downward pressure on oil prices, as the market seeks a new equilibrium amid weakening demand and reduced supply from high-cost producers, particularly in the U.S. [1] - Barclays has revised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 from $74 per barrel to $70 per barrel, anticipating a global oil supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day this year [1] Group 2 - Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group noted that oil prices are struggling as the market assesses the likelihood of OPEC increasing production, with a slowdown in oil demand potentially leading to lower U.S. crude production expectations [2] - Rystad Energy has cut its forecast for U.S. onshore crude production growth by more than half, predicting an increase of less than 150,000 barrels per day by the end of the year, down from an earlier estimate of around 300,000 barrels per day [2] - Analysts from S&P Global indicated that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are expected to have increased by 200,000 barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories are projected to decrease by 1.2 million barrels and 600,000 barrels, respectively [2]

货运数据公司统计，截至4月14日，中美之间船舶运输量急剧下降，周环比下降超过22%，同比 下降44%。有美国农产品出口商警告称，中国市场难以被取代，目前由于中美两国贸易下降， 美国农产品的价格已经受到影响，一些产品的价格已经下降超过了20%。 美国媒体当地时间28日报道称，由于全球多国对美国特朗普政府实施的关税政策予以强烈反 击，尤其中国暂停进口美国农产品的一系列措施，美国农业部门已遭受巨大损失。 美国农产品运输联盟负责人更是直言，美国农产品行业的全面危机已经到来。 据美国消费者新闻与商业频道援引美国农产品运输联盟的报告称，美国关税政策所引发的贸易 战已导致其会员公司遭受了"巨额"财务损失。该联盟执行董事弗里德曼直言，鉴于目前美国农 产品订单遭取消的情况，该行业已不再是"接近危机"，而是已经面临"全面危机"。 报道称，一家主营木浆和纸板的出口商表示，其仓库中有6400吨的货物目前因订单取消而被迫 滞留，并产生巨额费用。另有9000吨的货物原定于5月中旬到达中国，鉴于中国对美加征关税 采取反制措施，届时该批货物将不得不在保税仓库滞留或转口贸易，相应成本难以估量。 美国华盛顿州中部的一家草料出口商表示，由于中国客 ...

冉学东 4月22日，伦敦黄金现货冲高到了3500亿元以上，当日到高点后，市场获利盘开始大肆抛售套现，第二日继续大幅 下跌，这一日美国黄金ETF出现了-13亿美元的最大单日赎回，超越了2011年瑞士央行干预引发的市场恐慌，显示 市场情绪的明显转变。按总持有黄金的实际数量计算，美国黄金ETF远远低于2020年的水平。 但是同时，有一股购买力量来自亚洲，一旦到了亚洲交易时间，黄金价格一开盘便大幅上涨，分析指出，随着中 国投资者对黄金的配置不断增加，黄金市场的"底部"逐步稳固。这一点，有数据印证，28日，中国黄金协会发布 一季度国内黄金相关统计数据显示，一季度，我国增持黄金12.75吨，国内黄金ETF持仓增长23.47吨，同比增长 327.73%。至3月底，国内黄金ETF持有量达138.21吨。 在黄金快速回调之际，多头仓位也在大幅减少。4月28日，美国商品期货交易委员会最新数据显示，对冲基金经理 已将黄金期货和期权的净多头头寸削减至一年多以来的最低水平。 由于此轮黄金爆发上涨主要是由于特朗普发动贸易战，引发全球经济秩序发生大混乱，大家对美国债券以及美元 的信用发生动摇，美元和美股大跌，美债收益率大幅上涨，资金进入黄 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 2024 年 12 月 18 日美联储鹰派降息利空落地之后，金价在中国印度年底节日 消费旺季预期、特朗普 2.0 新政不确定性引发避险需求、美国经济短期滞涨风险 上升、特朗普交易热潮降温等因素影响下重新开始新一轮上涨，并重返 2024 年 3 月份以来的中级上涨通道；4 月初特朗普对等关税远超市场预期，金融市场大幅 波动导致投资者抛售包括黄金在内的金融资产，伦敦黄金一度在三个交易日内从 3168 美元/盎司调整至 2956 美元/盎司；而在市场波动性以及金融市场抛压逐步 减弱之后，来自全 ...