Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the impact of high tariffs on consumer goods and the potential for Japanese companies to explore opportunities in the US market while mitigating risks by diversifying their supply chains [1][4]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - Despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, the current rates remain significantly higher than before the Trump administration, with the US imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% under a 90-day agreement [2][4]. - The actual tariff rate for the US on Chinese goods is approximately 51.3%, while China's effective tariff rate on US goods is around 37.5%, indicating a mutual escalation of tariffs that negatively impacts both economies [4][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The high tariffs have led to shortages of consumer goods in the US, contributing to rising prices and empty shelves, while US exports have decreased significantly, with a reported 30% drop in export volumes at the Port of Los Angeles [5][6]. - The temporary nature of the tariff suspension creates uncertainty for businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, which struggle to plan for the future amid fluctuating trade policies [5][6]. Japan's Trade Dynamics - Japan's trade has been affected by global economic cycles, with exports experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, leading to a trade deficit in recent months [9][10]. - Japan's export structure is heavily reliant on high-value products such as automobiles and semiconductors, while its imports are primarily raw materials and energy, making it vulnerable to global price changes [9][10]. Japan-US Trade Negotiations - The US has imposed a 10% base tariff on all Japanese goods, with specific tariffs of 25% on automobiles and parts, which are critical to Japan's economy [14][15]. - Japan is actively seeking the removal of these tariffs, emphasizing the importance of the automotive sector in its export economy, which constituted 28.3% of total exports to the US in 2024 [14][15]. Recent Trends and Challenges - Japan's exports to the US have seen a decline, with a 1.8% drop reported in April 2025, marking the first decrease in four months, primarily driven by reduced automobile exports [17]. - The strengthening of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar have further complicated Japan's export competitiveness, contributing to the trade imbalance [17][12].

Core Points - The European Union (EU) plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including Boeing aircraft, if President Trump implements baseline tariffs on EU goods as expected [1][3] - EU officials anticipate that even if a trade agreement is reached, some tariffs will remain in place [1] - The EU has prepared a large-scale retaliation list, including tariffs on $210 billion worth of U.S. goods and an additional list targeting $950 billion worth of products [6] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU has accused the U.S. of demanding unfair terms in trade negotiations, which could lead to an inequitable agreement [2] - The EU is striving for a mutually beneficial agreement and will assess any final outcomes to determine acceptable levels of asymmetry [2] - Any decision on retaliatory measures will require coordination and consent from EU member states [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The civil aviation industry, particularly Airbus and Boeing, is highlighted as a key sector affected by potential tariffs [3] - Airbus is concerned about facing unfair competition from Boeing due to the proposed additional 10% tariffs [3] - The EU's retaliation could significantly impact U.S. exports, especially in politically sensitive sectors such as motorcycles and whiskey [6] Group 3: Political Statements - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed hope for a resolution with the U.S. by early July, but emphasized that the EU is prepared to defend its interests if negotiations fail [7] - There is a prevailing sentiment among Europeans that even a successful negotiation may only result in a preliminary agreement, allowing discussions to continue beyond the July 9 deadline [7]

Core Viewpoint - The deadline for US-EU trade negotiations is likely to be postponed, with significant tariffs looming if no agreement is reached, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties in global trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The EU faces a deadline on July 9 for trade negotiations with the US, with potential tariffs of up to 50% on EU exports if no agreement is reached [1]. - Valentino Valentini emphasizes that dialogue is essential, and the current strategy of postponing deadlines creates unnecessary anxiety [1]. - The use of tariffs as a tool to fill fiscal deficits rather than to balance trade is concerning, as it may lead to broader economic repercussions [3]. Group 2: Impact on Investment and Supply Chains - The sudden imposition of tariffs has dampened investment confidence and accelerated supply chain restructuring, shifting from a "just-in-time" to a "just-in-case" model [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is causing companies to pause new investments, particularly in emerging markets, which are already facing economic challenges [6][7]. - The World Bank reports that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing countries have dropped to their lowest level since 2005, with developed economies also experiencing significant slowdowns [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade barriers are contributing to a decline in global investment, with private equity exits becoming more challenging [6]. - Emerging markets are particularly affected, as high inflation and debt accumulation hinder their economic recovery, while FDI continues to flow into safer, mature markets [7]. - The future of FDI is contingent on the resolution of geopolitical tensions, which currently disrupt traditional investment patterns [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 16th Davos Forum highlighted the profound changes in the global economic, political, and security landscape, emphasizing the rise of trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts impacting global supply chains and economic fragmentation [2]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Responses - The disruption of supply chains is a global issue, necessitating China's contribution to stabilizing the entire industrial and supply chain [2]. - China should transform the pressures from trade wars into opportunities for industrial restructuring and upgrading [2]. - The need for traditional industries in China to undergo further transformation and upgrading over the next decade was emphasized [2]. Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - Seven major strategic emerging industries must achieve qualitative improvements to gradually dominate global markets, including new-generation information technology, biotechnology, new materials, and new energy vehicles [3]. - Future industries should receive targeted support and guidance, particularly in AI technology and life sciences [4]. Group 3: Global Economic Recovery - Many companies face difficulties in global expansion, which could significantly impact global economic recovery and growth [4]. - The turning point for the global economy may arise from significant setbacks, leading countries to return to correct economic paths [4]. - According to the theory of comparative advantage, countries should leverage their strengths to produce high-quality, cost-effective products, forming a beneficial global supply chain [4].

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英媒：欧盟准备征收报复性关税，以确保与特朗普达成更好的贸易协议 金十数据6月24日讯，据英国金融时报报道，在即将到来的谈判最后期限之前，一位高级官员警告称， 如果欧盟想要达成一项好的协议，就必须在特朗普发起的贸易战中发出"可信的威胁"进行报复。两名欧 盟官员表示，欧盟委员会主席的幕僚长塞伯特上周在七国集团峰会结束后告诉欧盟各国大使，强有力回 应的前景将有助于说服美国总统下调对欧盟征收的高额关税。德国总理默茨亦暗示，他的政府将支持采 取更强硬的措施。他周二表示："如果没有达成协议，我们准备使用各种选择。我们能够也将捍卫我们 的利益。"塞伯特告诉各国大使，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩准备升级谈判，以争取更好的协议。他请求 他们支持对价值950亿欧元的美国商品征收一揽子关税，并表示欧盟委员会还在准备针对服务业的措施 ——包括对美国科技公司征税，以及限制美国企业获得公共采购合同。其中一位官员表示，传递出的信 息是，"我们需要通过可信的再平衡方案来发挥杠杆作用"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire investor Steve Eisman warns that if President Trump’s ongoing tariff stance leads to a full-blown trade war, the global economy could face severe challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Trade War Risks - Eisman identifies tariffs and the potential trade war as the only significant risk currently facing the market, expressing concern over their impact on consumer spending and investor sentiment [2]. - A recent Global Fund Manager Survey indicated that 47% of 222 fund managers view a global recession triggered by trade wars as the biggest "tail risk" for the market [2]. - JPMorgan Research reduced the probability of a U.S. and global recession from 60% to 40%, attributing this to a temporary easing of trade tensions following tariff reductions on China [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Eisman draws parallels between the current trade environment and the situation before World War I, suggesting that treaties aimed at resolving conflicts can inadvertently lead to larger confrontations [3][4]. - He emphasizes that while no one desires a trade war, the possibility remains due to existing international agreements [4]. Group 3: European Trade Relations - Despite the focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations, Eisman believes that solidifying trade relations with Europe is more significant due to the complexities involved with the EU's 27 member states [5]. - He likens negotiating with the EU to herding cats, highlighting the challenges posed by differing regulations and tax concerns [6]. Group 4: U.S. Negotiation Strategy - Trump has indicated dissatisfaction with the current terms being offered by the EU, suggesting that the U.S. may be overconfident in its negotiating position [7]. - Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned that excessive confidence could alienate European allies and complicate negotiations [8].

欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔：在贸易战局势更为明朗之前，不会调整利率。 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/6/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1772.000 -133.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1304.6 | -76.30↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 467.40 -37.60↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 314.50 | -30.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | 165.14 +103.00↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 44791 -2262↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1937.14 239.51↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 2,083.46 | -825.22↓ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1869.59 -218.65↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1,227.97 | 0.08↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1342.46 99.41↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 1,578.60 | 89. ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on certain steel products, effective June 23, 2025, expanding the scope to include everyday consumer goods like dishwashers and refrigerators [3][5] - This tariff increase follows a previous adjustment in March, where steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 25% and then to 50% in June [5][16] - The policy aims to protect domestic industries, but it has sparked controversy as it may lead to increased appliance prices by 5%-10% due to higher import costs [7][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Supply - Iran's parliament suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil, through which one-third of the world's oil supply is transported daily [9][11] - If closed, global oil supply could drop by 20%, potentially causing oil prices to surge from $75 per barrel to between $100 and $120 [11][30] - The rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve raising inflation expectations to 3.5% for 2025, and the risk of inflation exceeding 4% if oil prices remain uncontrolled [20][22][44] Group 3: Economic Repercussions - The dual challenges of tariffs and rising oil prices place significant pressure on the U.S. economy, with potential impacts on consumer prices and manufacturing costs [20][22] - The situation could lead to a "stagflation" crisis, affecting not only the U.S. but also economies reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the EU and Asian countries [24][30] - Experts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may be part of a larger plan to eventually lower tariffs while still generating significant revenue, potentially around $400 billion annually [26][41] Group 4: Domestic Steel Industry - The U.S. steel industry is currently underutilized, with a capacity utilization rate of only 78% as of Q1 2025, indicating that high tariffs have not significantly boosted domestic production [34] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may not effectively revitalize the U.S. steel sector as intended, raising questions about the long-term viability of such measures [34][47]