金十数据6月2日讯，贸易紧张局势加剧，投资者避免购买风险资产，比特币下跌。特朗普周五宣布，计 划从周三开始将钢铁和铝的关税提高至50%。市场参与者在等待本周的关键美国数据，包括周五非农就 业数据和欧洲央行的利率决定。比特币日内下跌逾1%，现报104296美元/枚。 贸易紧张局势引发避险情绪，比特币下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant movements in the global bond market and a surge in safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a reshaping of financial market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff threat on May 23, the German bond market reacted sharply, with short-term rates rising due to inflation concerns while long-term rates fell, signaling increased recession risks [4][5]. - The yield curve exhibited a "bear flattening" pattern, with the two-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 1.782%, while the 30-year yield dropped by 2.3 basis points to 3.065% [4][3]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold prices surged by 2.1% to $3362.70 per ounce, reaching a six-week high, while the US dollar index fell by 0.83%, reflecting a loss of confidence in US policies [6][7]. - The movements in the bond market and precious metals serve as indicators of capital flows amid trade conflicts [7]. Group 3: EU Countermeasures - The EU's countermeasures include a targeted list of $21 billion in tariffs, focusing on agricultural products that impact key Republican states, while avoiding escalation by removing whiskey tariffs [9]. - Potential retaliatory measures from the EU could disrupt corporate bond issuance and increase credit spread volatility [11]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The article highlights that if the tariff conflict persists until 2028, Germany could face cumulative losses of €250 billion, with the bond market already pricing in these risks [18]. - The risk premium on German bonds has increased by 3-5 basis points, and if negotiations break down before July 9, this premium could potentially double [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs may lead to a recovery in the copper sector, driven by improved export and macroeconomic expectations, alongside tight copper supply [5] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a rebound in exports, although attention must be paid to downstream production changes [5] - The gold sector is positioned for potential recovery due to rising risk aversion stemming from increased US fiscal concerns and new tariffs on EU imports [5] - Small metals like tungsten and rare earths are showing price increases overseas, which may gradually transmit to domestic markets [5] - The steel sector is anticipated to benefit from urban renewal projects and a favorable cost environment, leading to improved profitability expectations [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Copper Sector - Recent LME copper price was $9,595 per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.6% - SHFE copper price was 77,790 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -0.4% - Copper social inventory recorded 139,900 tons, up 7900 tons week-on-week, indicating initial stockpiling in the off-season [5] Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum price was $2,437 per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.5% - SHFE aluminum price was 20,155 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.1% - The aluminum processing enterprise operating rate fell to 61.4%, indicating a mixed demand landscape [5] Gold Sector - SHFE gold price was 780 RMB per gram, with a week-on-week change of +3.8% - COMEX gold price was $3,358 per ounce, with a week-on-week change of +4.8% - Increased concerns over US fiscal risks and new tariffs are expected to elevate gold prices [5] Small Metals Sector - Rare earth prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides were 429,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.0% - Tungsten prices for tungsten concentrate were 165,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.9% [5] Steel Sector - SHFE rebar price was 3,046 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.2% - SHFE hot-rolled coil price was 3,189 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.1% - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion RMB in quality projects this year, enhancing demand expectations [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as the US tariff policy ruling, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different sectors. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [2][5][8][13][16][38][56] - For most commodities, short - term uncertainties exist, and the market is expected to be volatile. Some commodities may have a downward trend due to supply - demand imbalances, while others may be in a state of shock with limited upward or downward space [4][7][10][15][20][39] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, A - shares opened higher, with major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3363.45 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal. The White House may appeal or invoke new legal provisions [3][4] - Funds: On May 29, A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan [4] - Operation suggestion: The index is expected to continue to oscillate neutrally after short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [5] - Funds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan. The money market was generally stable [6] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority, but the implementation of the ruling is uncertain [6] - Operation suggestion: The bond market may oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and the money market [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: Gold and silver prices rose due to the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the re - boosting of risk - aversion sentiment. International gold closed at $3317.87 per ounce, up 0.94%, and silver closed at $33.32 per ounce, up 1.09% [8][10] - News: The US federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, and the Trump administration appealed. The US economy showed signs of slowdown, and the Fed maintained its stance on monetary policy independence [8][9] - Operation suggestion: Gold can use the virtual - value option double - selling strategy, and silver is recommended to sell relatively virtual - value call options [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of May 29, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range [13] - Index: The SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 1.44% week - on - week, while the US West Line Index increased by 18.90% [13] - Fundamentals: As of May 29, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.6% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed certain economic trends [13] - Logic: The futures price rose due to the possible congestion of European ports caused by the US tariff policy, which may lead to tight shipping capacity in August [14] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1800 - 2400 points [15] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the market procurement sentiment was general [16] - Macro: The short - term macro environment has little change. The key is the US copper import tariff policy and the US economic fundamentals. The current macro factors do not strongly drive copper prices up [17] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in May [18] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing decreased, and the terminal demand may be under pressure in Q3 [19] - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [19] - Logic: Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [20] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [20] Zinc - Spot: On May 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the market transaction was average [20] - Supply: A zinc mine may stop production in June, but the overall processing fee remains high. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly in May [21] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, but some enterprises were cautious about terminal export orders [22] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [22] - Logic: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to short at high levels and pay attention to zinc ore production and downstream demand changes [23] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [23] Tin - Spot: On May 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market trading was relatively good [23] - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in April showed different trends [24] - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate improved in March, but the overall order situation was average. The inventory showed different changes [25] - Logic: Considering supply recovery and weak demand expectations, it is recommended to hold short positions [26][27] - Operation suggestion: Hold short positions [27] Nickel - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [27] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level, with an expected production of 35350 tons in May [27] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel mills was affected by production adjustments [28] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory and bonded area inventory decreased [28] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 [29][30] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [30] - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron was stable [30][32] - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production in May is expected to decrease slightly, with a decrease in the 300 - series production [30] - Inventory: Social inventory and futures inventory decreased [31] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13200 [32] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [32] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [33] - Supply: The production in April decreased slightly, but the production in May is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure remains [34] - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [34] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [35] - Logic: The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56000 - 60000 yuan [36][37] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 yuan [37] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly [38] - Supply: The iron element output decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly [38] - Demand: The apparent demand increased slightly, but the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the direct export of steel remained high [39] - Inventory: The steel inventory continued to decrease, while the cold - rolled steel inventory continued to increase [39] - Cost and profit: The profit was stable, with blast furnaces profitable and electric furnaces losing money [39] - Viewpoint: The steel price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, but further decline requires iron ore inventory accumulation [39] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [40] - Futures: The main iron ore contract rose 1.22% to 707 yuan/ton [40] - Basis: The basis of PB powder for the 09 contract was 72.5 yuan/ton [40] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [40] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume was relatively low [41] - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory was basically stable [41] - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate between 700 - 745 yuan/ton [41] Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures continued to decline, and the second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was implemented on May 28 [42] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 7 yuan/ton [42] - Supply: The total coke output decreased slightly [42] - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [43] - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [44] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [44] Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the spot market was bearish [45] - Supply: The production of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [45][46] - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [46] - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased [46] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [47] Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas were stable [48] - Futures: On May 29, the 07 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.38% to 5322 yuan/ton [48] - Cost and profit: The cost of ferrosilicon production in different regions was different, and some enterprises were in the red [48] - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to continue to decline [49][50] - Demand: The demand for ferrosilicon decreased, and the non - steel demand was weak [50] - Viewpoint: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate weakly [50] Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas decreased slightly [51] - Futures: On May 29, the 09 contract of manganese silicon decreased by 1.36% to 5530 yuan/ton [51] - Cost: The production cost and profit in different regions were different [51] - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore was under pressure, and the global shipment decreased slightly [51][52][55] - Supply: The output of manganese silicon increased slightly [52] - Demand: The demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, but the iron water output decreased [53][55] - Viewpoint: The price of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [56] - Fundamental news: The global soybean supply is expected to be sufficient, and the inventory will increase significantly [56] - Market outlook: The two - meal market is expected to oscillate, and the soybean meal may face callback risks above 2950 yuan/ton [57][58] Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [59][60] - Market outlook: The pig price is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward space. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [60] Corn - Spot price: The corn prices in different regions were generally stable [61] - Fundamental news: The inventory of corn processing enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of feed enterprises increased [61] - Market outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate with the shipping rhythm [61]

2025.05.29 周四 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 一波到位，舒坦了。 5月29日，美国一家联邦法院(美国国际贸易法院)周三阻止美国总统川普的"解放日"关税生效，裁定川普以贸易逆差等为由，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》 征收全面关税，属于越权行为。 裁决公布后，美股（尤其苹果等进口依赖企业）大涨，美元趁此蹿高一截，黄金下跌。紧急叫停的行为，黄金市场的各位长舒一口气，高位兑现离场的头寸 增加。本就收线在日线中轨3285一带的黄金，开盘看到消息之后，直线下跌，一度触及3245一带。 真棒，这两天文章的目标接连到位。3270和3250作为第二轮调整的重要分水岭，还是有多头的埋伏的，这一信息在午盘期间得以发散，目前黄金又要回到 3280一带。 这才叫，点位还是那个点位，钱变了hhh。告诉大家了，我测算出来的位置，总是要多个心思的，真要实破了随便跟，但只有影线在，非得贪那最后一个铜 板没必要。 很简单啊朋友，案件被再次上诉了。 国际贸易法院（CIT）是一个"守门人"的角色，在贸易法治甚至国之根本都快要被动摇的时候，自然是要下手的。第二步，是案件将进入联邦巡回上诉法 院，最终可至最高法院。现在还不是一锤定音 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.81%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed flat [1] - The core logic is that in the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade - wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US trade court ruled to block Trump's global tariffs, reducing the risk - aversion sentiment. The US has completely left the top - tier AAA credit rating club, and the 20 - year new bonds have been cold. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that the Fed admits that inflation and unemployment may rise simultaneously and will face a difficult choice. US business equipment spending has recorded the largest decline in six months, and tariff uncertainties linger. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and weak [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has rebounded with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate weakly in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF have re - increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3312.40 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.38%) from the previous day and up $19.80 (0.60%) from last week; London gold was at $3300.85 per ounce, up $4.15 (0.13%) from the previous day and up $39.30 (1.20%) from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 764.32 yuan per gram, down 7.96 yuan (-1.03%) from the previous day and down 15.78 yuan (-2.02%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 762.49 yuan per gram, down 6.40 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and down 15.28 yuan (-1.96%) from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions were 448,000 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 0.98% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 195,076 lots (1 kg per lot), down 2.00% from the previous day and down 12.93% from last week; Gold TD positions were 216,784 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.81% from the previous day and up 0.15% from last week; LBMA inventory was 8,536 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,207 tons, up 0.05% from last week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 17 tons, up 0.05% from last week [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE members are led by CFC Futures with 29,986 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 5,365 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $33.10 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.87%) from the previous day and down $0.16 (-0.50%) from last week; London silver was at $33.29 per ounce, up $0.38 (1.17%) from the previous day and up $0.78 (2.42%) from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8,224 yuan per kilogram, down 1 yuan (-0.01%) from the previous day and down 77 yuan (-0.93%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8,202 yuan per kilogram, down 9 yuan (-0.11%) from the previous day and down 66 yuan (-0.80%) from last week [5] - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver positions were 141,451 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), up 2.31% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 5,183,925 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.34% from the previous day and down 10.00% from last week; Silver TD positions were 3,389,800 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.78% from the previous day and down 1.47% from last week; The total visible inventory was 40,715 tons, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE members are led by Guotai Junan with 45,469 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 13,935 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $674.0008 billion, down $2.4409 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [7] - **Macroeconomic Data**: M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63%, down 1.87% from the previous day and down 2.59% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.87, up 0.30% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.39, down 9.30% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week [7] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.30%, down 0.10 from the previous value; core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, unchanged; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.29%, down 0.39 from the previous value; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.65%, down 0.32 from the previous value [9] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 1.90%, down 1.00 from the previous value; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is - 0.30%, down 2.70 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, unchanged [9] - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves: China has 2,294.50 tons, up 0.22% from the previous value; the US has 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world has 36,250.15 tons, unchanged; the geopolitical risk index is 192.40, up 87.57% from the previous value; the VIX index is 18.11, down 6.21% from the previous day and down 10.70% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 293.26, down 0.51% from the previous day and down 1.02% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1971, down 0.04% from the previous value [9][11] 3.4 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]

黄金短线如何做好布局？ 黄金日内多空博弈加剧！避险情绪降温，空头来势汹汹！短线如何做好布局？立即观看超V推荐官Jason 的讲解，直播间可领取超V美盘分析>>> 相关链接 ...

【导读】周三股票ETF资金净流出20亿元 5月28日（本周三），A股市场全天窄幅震荡，三大指数小幅收跌，两市成交1.01万亿元。 资金流向显示，5月28日，市场震荡调整之际，股票ETF净流出资金超20亿元。 当日资金净流入超过1亿元的股票ETF有7只，行业ETF吸金居前，其中，华夏科创50ETF、华夏上证50ETF、国泰信创ETF位居前三，资金净流入均超1.5 亿元。 来自易方达基金的数据显示，5月28日，以下方向资金净流入居前，分别为科创板50指数（净流入3.9亿元）、半导体指数（净流入3.1亿元）、信创指数 （净流入2.3亿元）、创业板指数（净流入1.9亿元）、非银金融指数（净流入1.7亿元）。 统计显示，资金净流入前20大股票ETF中，科创50ETF有4只，创业板ETF有2只，半导体芯片ETF、证券ETF、红利低波ETF分别有3只、2只和2只。 头部基金公司中，5月28日，易方达旗下科创50ETF净流入1.1亿元；创业板ETF净流入1.1亿元、最新规模接近820亿元，居同类第一；沪深300ETF易方达 净流入0.2亿元。 华夏基金ETF中，5月28日，信用债ETF和科创50ETF单日净流入居前，分别净流 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in risk aversion and highlights short-term opportunities in gold, while also emphasizing key positions for the US dollar and non-US currencies [1] Group 1 - The sentiment of risk aversion is decreasing, which may impact gold prices [1] - Key support levels for the US dollar are clearly defined, indicating potential stability [1] - Non-US currencies are being closely monitored for specific price levels that could signal trading opportunities [1]