Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite remains high, with most stock markets rising, and most bond yields increasing. The US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4.39%. The US dollar index fell 0.85% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices dropped 0.4% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 14.9, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil dropped 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel [1][5][9] - The US economic data is mixed but still shows some resilience. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July, but internal differences are increasing. The ECB also kept rates unchanged in July, and the market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year has decreased [2][11] - The short - term market risk appetite will continue to be relatively optimistic, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term with continued downward pressure in the medium term [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite is high, most stock markets rise, most bond yields increase, and the US Treasury yield slightly drops to 4.39%. The US dollar index falls 0.85% to 97.6, most non - US currencies appreciate, gold prices drop 0.4% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index drops to 14.9, the spot commodity index rises, and Brent crude oil drops 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise. The S&P 500 index rises 1.46%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.67%, the Hang Seng Index rises 2.27%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 4.11%. The US economic data is mixed, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July but with internal differences, and the ECB also keeps rates unchanged [10][11] - The domestic stock market sentiment is high, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3600 points, and the market style rotates rapidly [13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly drops to 4.39%. Eurozone government bonds mostly rise, and emerging - market bond yields mostly recover. The US economic data is okay, the ECB pauses rate cuts, and bond yields still have room to rise [14][18][20] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rises to 1.739%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrows to 264bp, and the domestic bond market shows a significant correction [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index falls 0.85% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises 0.19%, the euro rises 0.98%, the pound rises 0.16%, the yen rises 0.75%, the Swiss franc rises 0.74%, the Mexican peso rises 1.07%, and the Korean won, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and ringgit all rise [27][29][30] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold drops 0.4% to $3337 per ounce. After the US - Japan agreement, the market expects the US - EU agreement to be reached. The US economic data supports the Fed to continue pausing rate cuts, and the ECB also pauses rate cuts in July. Gold should beware of correction risks [31][33][34] - Brent crude oil drops 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and the spot commodity index rises, but the market starts to fluctuate sharply on Friday [34] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US - Japan trade agreement is reached. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, lower than the previously threatened 25% level. Japan needs to invest $550 billion in the US, with 90% of the profits going to the US [3][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - From July 27th to 30th, there will be high - level China - US trade negotiations in Sweden. There are also important economic data releases such as the US 5 - month housing price index, 6 - month job vacancies, and 7 - month consumer confidence. The Fed and the BoJ will announce their July interest - rate meeting decisions, and the US will release its 7 - month non - farm payroll report [38]

Group 1 - The article highlights that China has the lowest average import tariff rate among major global economies at 3.1%, significantly lower than the United States at 19.3% and other countries like Canada and Australia [1][8] - The effectiveness of tariffs as a traditional trade protection measure is being challenged in the context of globalization and interconnected supply chains, leading to unintended consequences for countries imposing high tariffs [1][8] - The U.S. tariff strategy against China has resulted in increased costs for American consumers and businesses, ultimately harming the U.S. economy rather than achieving its intended goals [1][3] Group 2 - Chinese manufacturers have demonstrated remarkable adaptability by relocating production lines to countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico to circumvent high tariffs while continuing to supply the U.S. market [3] - Europe is taking a more cautious approach towards China, focusing on finding alternative suppliers and building strategic reserves rather than severing ties with China, due to its reliance on Chinese markets for key industries [6] - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with China's supply chains proving resilient and indispensable despite the ongoing tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S. [8]

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the EU and the US have intensified as the August 1 deadline approaches, with key disagreements remaining on tariffs for steel, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The EU aims to establish a 15% tariff ceiling for sensitive industries, including pharmaceuticals, which is a critical point for potential compromise [1][2] - The current proposal includes a quota system for steel and aluminum imports, where products within the quota benefit from lower tariffs, while exceeding the quota incurs a 50% tariff [2][3] Group 1 - The US and EU bilateral trade relationship reached €1.6 trillion in 2023, making it one of the largest trade relationships globally [3] - The US has imposed additional tariffs of 10% on EU products, 25% on automobiles, and 50% on steel and aluminum [3] - The Trump administration has initiated new investigations into chips, pharmaceuticals, and aircraft parts, potentially expanding the scope of tariffs [3] Group 2 - Both parties are aiming to finalize an agreement before the August 1 deadline, or else the US plans to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports [4] - The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of US products if negotiations fail [4] - The outcome of the negotiations heavily depends on President Trump's decisions, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the final agreement [4]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The trade negotiations between the US and the EU have reached a critical moment, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set to meet President Trump to discuss trade issues [1][2] - Both sides are cautiously optimistic about reaching a framework agreement, despite ongoing intense discussions regarding tariffs on EU steel, automobiles, and pharmaceutical products [2][22] Group 2: Puma's Financial Performance - Puma has warned of expected losses this year due to weak sales and the impact of US tariffs, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, which fell over 19% on July 25 [4][5] - The company's second-quarter sales were reported at €1.94 billion (approximately ¥16.3 billion), falling short of analyst expectations, with North American sales down 9.1% and European sales down 3.9% [6] - Puma has revised its full-year sales forecast to a "low double-digit percentage" decline (approximately 10%-13%), compared to a previous expectation of low single-digit growth (around 3%-6%) [8] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs - The company anticipates that tariffs will negatively impact its gross profit by approximately €80 million (around ¥670 million) in 2025 [11] - Puma's new CEO acknowledged internal issues and emphasized the need for a comprehensive brand overhaul to address ongoing challenges [12] - The company has faced a cumulative stock price drop of over 53% since the beginning of the year due to a series of negative news [13] Group 4: Broader Industry Challenges - The ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to continue affecting the industry and Puma's performance significantly through 2025 [10][14] - The company previously indicated that the industry would likely see price increases due to tariffs, but noted that stronger brands in the US market would lead the price hikes [15][16]

Economic Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.43%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.30% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.15% [1] - The Eurozone is set to release Q2 GDP data, which will provide insights into the impact of tariff uncertainties on the economy [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a rise, suggesting a strong economy, which may influence future rate decisions [3][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential rate cut in October, with the job market and economic indicators being closely monitored [4] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which may serve as a template for negotiations with the EU, particularly regarding a 15% tariff rate [3] - The deadline for the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" is August 1, raising concerns about potential market volatility depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [3][4] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to report their results [5] - Other notable companies to watch include Procter & Gamble, VISA, and UnitedHealth [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 1.35% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fell by 0.57%, closing at $3334.00 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and positive trade negotiation signals [6][7] Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. Q2 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation data, and the July non-farm payroll report [4][5] - The UK is set to release various economic indicators, including the nationwide house price index and consumer credit data, which may provide insights into future economic trends [8]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has resulted in significant casualties, with 21 Thai individuals reported dead, including 13 civilians and 8 military personnel [3][4]. Group 1: Conflict Details - The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia began on July 24, with both sides accusing each other of violating international law [4]. - As of July 26, the Thai military has conducted airstrikes using F-16 and "Eagle" fighter jets against Cambodian military targets [19][16]. - Cambodia has reported that Thailand has deployed 8 naval vessels off its coast amid the escalating tensions [22]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts - U.S. President Trump has communicated with the leaders of both countries, emphasizing that the U.S. will only consider trade agreements once the border conflict is resolved [6]. - Thailand has expressed a willingness to agree to a ceasefire and is seeking bilateral talks to establish clear ceasefire measures [8]. - Cambodia has also agreed to an unconditional ceasefire proposal, indicating a readiness for dialogue [10]. Group 3: Safety Advisories - The Chinese embassies in Cambodia and Thailand have issued warnings to their citizens to avoid the conflict areas and to remain vigilant regarding their safety [12][13].

Core Insights - A recent Wall Street Journal poll indicates that American voters believe the Republican Party is most capable of handling economic issues, inflation, tariffs, and foreign policy [1] Economic Management - Voters perceive the Republican Party as having a stronger ability to manage the economy compared to other political parties [1] Inflation Concerns - The poll highlights that voters trust the Republican Party more in addressing inflation-related challenges [1] Tariff Policies - Respondents believe that the Republican Party is better equipped to handle tariff policies effectively [1] Foreign Policy - The Republican Party is viewed as more competent in managing foreign policy issues according to the poll results [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.18%, the Dow Jones remained flat, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.18% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained unchanged [1] - The Nasdaq Composite experienced a rise of 0.2% [1] Group 2: Government Actions - President Trump announced plans to send nearly 200 tariff-related letters [1] - The administration intends to use revenue from tariffs as a means to provide returns to the American public [1]

美国总统特朗普：将发出近200封关税信函。有些信函中会写明关税税率为10%或15%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump stated that a weaker dollar enhances the value of tariffs, suggesting that currency fluctuations can impact trade dynamics and economic policy [1] Group 1 - The depreciation of the dollar is perceived as beneficial for the effectiveness of tariffs imposed on imports [1] - Trump's comments indicate a strategic approach to using currency value as a tool in trade negotiations [1] - The relationship between currency value and tariff effectiveness may influence future economic policies and trade agreements [1]