澳洲联储副主席：关税的全部影响尚未显现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper will remain unchanged and are not included in the U.S.-South Korea trade agreement [1]

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合 市场预期，同时也是今年美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中，两张反对票来自由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼，他们倾向于支持降息25 个基点，与特朗普的诉求相呼应。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 特朗普当天稍早前曾表示，维持高利率正在伤害民众，美联储应该降低利率。在利率决议公布前不久，特朗普还预测，美联储此次可能不会降息，但"听 说9月要降息"。美联储主席鲍威尔则强调，目前仍然存在不确定性，美联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定。 美联储连续第五次维持利率不变 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变。 其中，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼投票反对该决定，支持降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 联邦公开市场委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean presidential office stated that South Korea will not face worse conditions than other countries regarding U.S. tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1 - The South Korean government is actively monitoring the situation regarding U.S. tariffs on key industries [1] - There is an emphasis on ensuring that South Korea's position remains competitive in the global market [1] - The statement reflects a commitment to maintaining favorable trade relations with the United States [1]

Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]

每经编辑｜毕陆名 美东时间周三（7月30日），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌 0.12%。交易员预计9月降息的可能性低于50%，之前为60%左右。 热门科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收跌0.22%，报13985点。 周三纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较周二纽约尾盘跌0.38%，至11.8万美元下方，盘中跌穿11.6万美元。 周三纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.2113元，较周二纽约尾盘跌305点，日内整体交投于7.1753~7.2146元 区间。 黄金价格下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.72%，报3266.90美元/盎司；10月合约跌1.72%，报3295.60美元。 周三纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货一度下跌18.03%，报4.6115美元/磅，截至收盘跌17.7%。 国际油价站上70美元，WTI 9月原油期货收报70.00美元/桶，布伦特9月原油期货收报73.24美元/桶。 消息方面，美联储决议继续维持基准利率在4.25%至4.50%区间。鲍威尔认为，政策的不断变化对经济影响仍不确 ...

高盛(GS.N)估计，美国即将对包括豁免在内的所有巴西进口商品征收的实际关税税率为30.8%。 ...

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] - The central bank indicated that further rate cuts may occur if the economy weakens and inflation pressures remain controlled [1] - Core inflation has recently rebounded, but the central bank is uncertain about its sustainability [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada presented three economic scenarios regarding the US-Canada trade situation, predicting a growth rebound to 1% in the second half of the year if current tariff levels remain unchanged [2] - If the US reduces tariffs on non-USMCA goods and Canada reciprocates, it could further boost growth; conversely, an escalation in trade tensions could lead to economic contraction and increased inflation pressures [2] - The central bank forecasts a decline in the inflation rate from 2.3% to 1.9% by 2025, partly due to the federal government's cancellation of the carbon tax [2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on Canadian two-year government bonds fell to 2.773%, and the Canadian dollar initially dropped before recovering [1] - The market interpreted the central bank's statement and the governor's comments as dovish, suggesting a more accommodative future policy stance [1] - Analysts noted that while the central bank did not signal an imminent rate cut, the current policy language does not end the easing cycle [2]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 特朗普宣布，美国已与韩国达成全面的贸易协议，将对韩国征收15%的关税，韩国将向美国提供3500亿 美元投资，由美国拥有和控制；此外，韩国将购买1000亿美元液化天然气（LNG）或其他能源产品。 标普股指期货涨0.68%，纳指期货涨0.97%，小盘股指期货跌0.56%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...