Group 1 - The report highlights that the global stock market experienced a rapid rebound in Q2 2023, with US and German stocks reaching historical highs, but there are concerns about potential significant pullbacks in Q3 due to high sentiment and valuation levels [6][8][10] - The rebound since April 2023 is primarily attributed to the recovery of expectations following Trump's TACO, with PE valuation recovery being a major contributor, alongside a decline in ERP and upward revisions in EPS [6][8] - The report notes that the liquidity shock in US Treasury bonds in summer 2023 led to significant pressure on risk assets, with the issuance scale exceeding market expectations and Fitch downgrading US debt ratings [8][10] Group 2 - In summer 2024, a rise in unemployment triggered recession expectations, leading to a reversal of carry trades and liquidity shocks in the market, with the US CPI falling below expectations and impacting bond yields [16][19] - The report indicates that the potential economic recession pressure is a major concern for the market, with the performance of tech stocks and consumer stocks being closely monitored [16][19] - The report emphasizes that the AI industry's revenue is meeting expectations, but traditional business performance is slowing down, affecting profit margins [16][19] Group 3 - The report identifies three potential risks for global risk assets in the second half of 2025, including the gradual realization of previously ignored tariff impacts, the rising risk of interest rates due to fiscal expansion, and the uncertainty stemming from Trump's policy shifts [21][22][32] - The microeconomic impacts of tariffs are expected to become more evident in corporate earnings reports, particularly regarding how companies manage the costs associated with tariffs [22][25] - The report discusses the implications of fiscal expansion in the US and Japan, highlighting the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the challenges posed by reliance on short-term debt financing [32][34]

Summary of Economic Implications of Possible Tariff Scenarios Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the implications of proposed tariff increases in the United States, particularly under the Trump administration's trade policies, which have raised the effective tariff rate (ETR) significantly. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Increases and Proposals - The US's effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 9 percentage points (pp) so far, with proposals for higher "reciprocal" tariffs on several countries, including a 50% sectoral tariff on copper and a potential rise in baseline tariff rates to 15-20% [2][5][6]. - The expectation is for the ETR to rise by around 14pp by the end of the current year, with further increases anticipated in 2026 and 2027, leading to a total increase of 17pp by 2027 [2][6]. Inflation and Consumer Prices - The proposed tariffs are estimated to boost core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by about 1.7% cumulatively over the next 2-3 years, with revised expectations for year-over-year core PCE inflation of 3.3% in December 2025, 2.7% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027 [2][21]. - The passthrough rate of higher costs into consumer prices is now expected to be around 65%, down from 70% previously, indicating a slower adjustment to increased import costs [10][11]. Economic Growth Impact - The tariffs are projected to lower year-over-year GDP growth by approximately 1pp in 2025, 0.4pp in 2026, and 0.3pp in 2027, reflecting a tax-like effect on real spending across the economy [2][36]. - A cumulative GDP hit from the tariff scenarios is estimated at around 2%, with the most extreme scenario suggesting a 3.3% cumulative GDP hit, translating to a 1.7pp increase in the unemployment rate by 2027 [3][52]. Alternative Scenarios - Four alternative tariff scenarios were explored, ranging from a downside scenario with lower tariffs to an upside scenario with significantly higher tariffs, indicating a weighted-average ETR increase of 16pp in 2025 [39][41]. - The downside scenario could result in a 1.4% boost to core PCE, while the upside scenario could lead to a nearly 3% increase by the end of 2027 [44]. Uncertainty and Business Investment - Heightened uncertainty from tariff changes is expected to dampen business investment, although recent measures of policy uncertainty have decreased, suggesting a smaller drag on growth than previously anticipated [27][36]. - The analysis indicates that financial conditions have loosened despite tariff increases, which may mitigate some negative impacts on capital expenditures [32][36]. Conclusion - The overall outlook suggests lower growth and higher inflation in 2026 and 2027 compared to previous forecasts, with risks tilted towards higher tariffs and inflation, and downside risks to growth through 2027 [57]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may adopt a wait-and-see approach to policy in light of potential tariff increases, with aggressive rate cuts becoming necessary if extreme tariff scenarios materialize [57].

7月23日，亚洲开发银行发布《2025年亚洲发展展望（7月版）》，将亚太地区发展中经济体2025年经济 增长预期下调至4.7%，2026年增长预期也下调至4.6%。亚行称，此次下调主要受美国关税政策、全球 贸易不确定性以及国内需求疲软的影响。 ...

当地时间22日，美国有线电视新闻网援引加拿大商会最新研究报道称，特朗普政府的关税政策或大大增 加未来美国房屋的建造成本，这将进一步加剧美国本已严峻的住房危机。报告指出，如果特朗普政府继 续推行其关税政策，特别是针对加拿大的进口商品关税，那么预计到2027年底，在美国建造一套住宅的 平均成本将会增加约1.4万美元。报告称，仅在2023年，美国69%的进口木材、25%的进口钢铁和18%的 进口铜来自加拿大，这些都是关键的建筑材料。报告还指出，得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州 可能受到的影响最为严重，因为这些地区严重依赖进口建筑材料。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement Overview - The United States and Japan have reached a significant trade agreement, described by President Trump as potentially the largest trade deal in history [1] - The agreement includes a 15% "reciprocal" tariff on Japanese goods imported into the U.S. and Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [1] - The deal is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and opens Japanese markets to U.S. products such as automobiles and agricultural goods [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen initially rose by 0.3% against the U.S. dollar but later lost most of its gains, settling at 146.46 [2] - Japanese government bond futures fell by 70 basis points, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 3.12% [2] - Analysts suggest that the initial strength of the yen reflects market sentiment that the 15% tariff is a favorable outcome for Japan [2] Group 3: Political Implications - The trade agreement may serve as a stabilizing factor for Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's administration, which recently lost its parliamentary majority [4] - Kishida indicated that he would assess the progress of tariff negotiations before deciding on his continuation in office [4] Group 4: Negotiation Context - The negotiations were described as tense, with both sides acknowledging the challenges faced [5] - Key points of contention included rice trade and the automotive industry, with Trump highlighting Japan's limited imports of U.S. rice and cars [5] - The agreement alleviates the threat of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, potentially giving Japan a competitive edge over U.S. suppliers [5] Group 5: Trade Statistics - Japan is the fifth-largest source of imports for the U.S., exporting $148 billion worth of goods, primarily automobiles and machinery [6] - Prior to the agreement, Japanese goods faced a potential 24% tariff, which was later reduced to a minimum of 10% [6] - The agreement is a continuation of the 2019 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, which expanded the range of duty-free goods [6]

首席点评 ： 我国外汇市场表现韧性，美国关税政策仍存扰动 美国总统特朗普发文表示，刚刚与日本达成了一项大规模协议，这可能是有史以来最大的一笔协议。日 本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，美国将获得 90% 的利润。这项协议将创造成千上万的就业机会 —— 这 是前所未有的。也许最重要的是，日本将开放其国家的贸易，包括汽车和卡车，大米和某些其他农产 品，以及其他东西。日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 7 月 22 日，国新办就 2025 年上半年外汇收 支数据情况举行新闻发布会。国家外汇管理局副局长李斌在回答中国证券报记者提问时表示，今年以 来，外汇形势复杂多变，风险挑战明显增加。面对外部冲击，我国外汇市场顶住压力，运行平稳，表现 出较强韧性。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.55% 报 503.8 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收涨 0.91% 报 792.94 元 / 克，沪银涨 0.75% 报 9453 元 / 千克。 重点品种：黄金、原油、钢材 黄金： 金银走强。 8 月 1 日新的关税大限前市场避险需求有所升温，此外美元和美债收益率的走弱为 黄金提供上行驱动。此前传闻称特朗普考虑解雇鲍威尔，后特 ...

特朗普称， 将对菲律宾征收19%的关税。 菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。 特朗普还称，或许最重要的是，日本将开放其市场进行贸易，包括汽车、卡车、大米以及其他 部分农产品和商品。日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。 截至目前，日本方面暂无回应。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易 协议： 对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。 北京时间7月23日早上，日元兑美元跳水。 近期 日本市场波动引发市场关注。 据21世纪经济报道，受访专家普遍认为，未来日元将进入 贬值通道。 南开大学日本研究院教授、副院长 张玉来表示，由于日本更倾向于走财政扩张道 路，再加上日本面临美国的关税政策，这些都将推动市场卖出日元。 （→ 详情 ） 特朗普称美菲达成贸易协议 特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，美国刚刚与日本达成了一项"巨大的"协议，可能是 有史以来最大的一项。他表示，按照其指示，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元， 美国将获得其 中90%的利润 。这项协议将创造数十万个就业岗位。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上 ...

2025.07. 23 推荐阅读 本文字数：219，阅读时长大约1分钟 三小时搬800箱，一台机器人或可替代约1.4~2名工人！实探智元机器人落地工厂 菲律宾方面目前暂无回应。 微信编辑 | 七三 封图 | 当地时间22日，特朗普在白宫会见到访的菲律宾总统马科斯 据央视新闻，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，当天， 他在白宫会见到访的菲律宾总统马科斯，双方达成了贸易协议。 特朗普称， 将 对菲律宾征收19%的关税 。菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。 ...

2025.07. 23 本文字数：1369，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美东时间周二（7月22日），尽管权重股通用汽车重挫拖累大盘表现，但在医疗和房地产板块领涨带 动下，标普500指数微幅收涨，续创历史收盘新高。投资者正在评估企业财报及美国贸易政策动向对 市场的中期影响。 截至收盘，标普500指数上涨0.06%，报6309.62点；道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.40%，报44502.44 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.39%，报20892.69点。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，当 天，他在白宫会见到访的菲律宾总统马科斯，双方达成了贸易协议。 特朗普称， 将对菲律宾征收19%的关税。菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。 企业财报方面，通用汽车公布的第二季度财报显示，受特朗普政府加征关税影响，公司季度利润大幅 下滑，股价收盘下跌8.1%，创近一年来最大单日跌幅。财报显示，第二季度营收同比下降近2%至约 470亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.53美元，略高于市场预期的2.44美元，但远低于去年同期的3.06美 元；调整后息税前利润同比下降32% ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PACCAR achieved revenues of $7.5 billion and adjusted net income of $724 million in the second quarter [6] - PACCAR Parts recorded quarterly revenues of $1.72 billion and pretax income of $417 million, marking record revenues [6] - PACCAR Financial Services increased pretax income to $123 million, up from $111 million a year earlier [11] - Gross margins for PACCAR's truck, parts, and other segments were 13.9% in the second quarter, with expectations of around 13% for the third quarter [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - PACCAR Parts is projected to grow year-over-year part sales by 4% to 6% in the third quarter [10] - PACCAR delivered 39,300 trucks in the second quarter and anticipates delivering around 32,000 to 33,000 in the third quarter [8] - The truck market in North America is estimated to be between 230,000 to 260,000 trucks for the year [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The European above 16-ton market is projected to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000 trucks for 2025 [7] - The South American above 16-ton truck market is expected to be between 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year [7] - Customer demand in the less-than-truckload and vocational segments is reported to be good [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PACCAR is investing $750 million to $800 million in capital investments and $450 million to $480 million in R&D for technology and innovation projects [12] - The company is focused on delivering industry-leading support for customers through PACCAR Parts and Financial Services [10][12] - PACCAR aims to enhance market clarity and benefit from tariff policy clarifications [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the North American market strengthening as tariff policies become clearer and the truckload market gains momentum [9] - The company anticipates that regulatory emission standards will drive truck purchases as customers prepare for upcoming changes [34] - Management noted that the vocational market remains strong due to ongoing infrastructure spending [81] Other Important Information - PACCAR's engine remanufacturing plant is expected to be operational in the first quarter of next year, with an annual capacity of about 5,000 remanufactured engines [68] - The company is building another used truck center in Warsaw, Poland, to support the sale of premium used trucks [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on strong sequential price improvement performance - Management noted that tariffs had a significant impact on pricing in Q2 and expect an increased impact in Q3 [15][16] Question: Discussions on Section 232 with the government - Management indicated ongoing investigations and speculated that conclusions could be reached sooner than expected [18] Question: Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on customer engagement - Management confirmed that customers are starting to engage regarding the '26 order season due to cash benefits from the legislation [24][25] Question: Stability of U.S. and Canada deliveries in the second half - Management highlighted factors such as overcapacity and regulatory standards that could influence order dynamics [32][34] Question: Guidance for parts growth in Q3 - Management reiterated strong performance in parts and expected continued growth due to effective customer service [37][39] Question: Inventory setup and industry dynamics - Management expressed confidence in their inventory position compared to industry averages [56] Question: Medium duty truck market outlook - Management indicated a favorable inventory position and potential for improvement in the medium duty market [96][97] Question: Pricing dynamics and customer relationships - Management confirmed that tariff surcharges are included in pricing, allowing for future pricing stability [85] Question: Growth opportunities in trucks versus parts and financial services - Management emphasized that trucks will continue to be essential for freight movement, with parts and financial services as growth areas [92]